Global societal vulnerability to volcanic eruptions

The climatic cooling effects associated with large magnitude volcanic eruptions – the so-called ‘volcanic winter’ scenario – have long been identified as an extreme risk that may impact the continued flourishing of humanity. Such eruptions are relatively rare, but perhaps not as rare as we might think. A greater understanding of this mechanism and increased resolution of our geological records through the study of ice core records demonstrate that the recurrence of an eruption capable of this impact may be as frequent as 1 in 6 per century. These large magnitude volcanic eruptions (VEI 7 and above), could cause a global cooling event for up to a decade, if not longer, with more severe effects felt in the northern hemisphere, presenting a unique challenge for global food security.

Further, viewed through the lens of vulnerability, human society now closely intersects with regions of volcanic activity, potentially forging new pathways for volcanic eruptions to cause global disruption. Our research identified regions of intersection, or ‘pinch points’, where a compounding of global critical systems and infrastructure, such as submarine cables, global shipping lanes, and transportation networks, are proximal to regions of volcanic activity. These pinch points present locations in our interconnected world where volcanic eruptions may disrupt our systems, cascading us toward global catastrophe. With climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of volcanic eruptions globally and enhancing their impacts, more must be done to accelerate our preparedness for such events.