The impact of the 2018 Lombok earthquake sequence, Indonesia on the unrest Rinjani-Samalas volcanic complex inferred from the time-dependent seismic and volcanic source models

In 2018, four deadly (Mw 6.2 to 6.9) earthquakes struck the north coast of Lombok Island, on 28 July, 5August, and 19 August, distributed between the Flores back-arc thrust and the Rinjani-Samalas volcanic complex, causing hundreds of fatalities and extensive damage. We performed a comprehensive analysis of relocated aftershocks, static coulomb stress changes, and co-seismic and post-seismic deformation, to improve our understanding of this earthquake sequence. The fault geometries and slip distributions of the three mainshocks are modelled by inverting the co-seismic deformation imaged using an interferometric analysis of Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements, based on rectangular dislocations embedded in a multi-layered elastic half-space. The earthquake sequence aftershocks were analysed using an unsupervised learning method (ST-DBSCAN) to cluster these relocated aftershocks so that we can identify the source of each aftershock. We used a time-series consisting of 658 descending and 370 ascending Sentinal-1 InSAR interferograms to investigate the time-dependent post-seismic deformation in the two years following the Lombok 2018 earthquake sequence, deriving a combined model that simulates the viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip simultaneously. The Coulomb stress change modelling based on the co-seismic and post-seismic rupture models indicates about 1 MPa of extensional stress change at 10 to 20 km of depth and 0.5 Mpa extensional stress change at 15 to 25 km of depth around the Barujari Crater region, respectively, which affects the open of the magma conduct, reflected as caldera-scale deflation and inflation. To quantify the influence of the earthquake sequence on the spatiotemporal deformation pattern of the volcano edifice, we extended our InSAR time-series range forward to the year 2014, just prior to the two eruptions that occurred on 25^th October 2015 and 1^st August 2016, and perform Principal Component Analysis to investigate the time-dependent inflation and deflation signals. We modelled the volume change and the location of the volcano pressure source for a better understanding of how changes in the magma body and magma movement may have been influenced by the 2018 Lombok earthquake sequence. A double-source compound model is used to invert the parameters of the magma chamber, including a shallow Moji point pressure source centred at 1.3 km north of the Barujari cone, and a deep source centred at 1.5 km northeast of the Rinjani cone, at ~3.9 km and ~3.5 km depth below the sea level respectively. We also used a uniform sill and dike combined model to interpret the co-eruptive signals surrounding the observed eruptive fissures. Our best-fit dike is nearly vertical, reaching a depth of 2 km below sea level with an opening of 8.5 cm, and the sill is at the depth of 3.1 km with a contraction of 40 cm.