Towards a climate-resilient healthy future: the Lancet Countdown in Europe
- 1Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Global Health Resilience Team, Earth Sciences , Barcelona, Spain (k.r.vandaalen@gmail.com)
- 2Institute for Global Health, University College London, UK
- 3Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
- 4Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- 5Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
- 6Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain
- 7CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
- 8BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change, Bilbao, Spain
- 9School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- 10Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
- 11European Centre for Environment and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany
- 12Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- 13Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK
- 14Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
- *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract
Introduction: As one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions and the world’s third largest economy, Europe is a key stakeholder in the world’s response to climate change and has a global responsibility and opportunity to transition towards a low-carbon economy for healthier, more resilient societies with clean air and liveable cities. The Lancet Countdown in Europe is the first comprehensive assessment that monitors health and climate change over space and time in Europe reporting on 33 indicators focusing on (section 1) impact, exposure, and vulnerability; (section 2) adaption, planning and resilience; (section 3) mitigation actions and health co-benefits; (section 4) economics and finance; and (section 5) politics and governance.
Results: Health risks (section 1) for almost all indicators tracked have been increasing. Illustratively, clinically relevant pollen seasons are starting 10-20 days earlier each year (1981-2020), the climatic suitability for water-borne and vector-borne diseases (e.g., malaria, dengue, Vibrio) have been rapidly increasing (1951-2020), and - assuming no adaptation - heat exposure is estimated to have increased by 57% between the first and second half of the 21st century. However, some encouraging trends for adaptation (section 2) could be observed - with countries adopting adaptation plans for health (15/22 assessed in 2021), cities recognising the threat of climate change to public health (118/197 assessed in 2021), or countries implementing early warning systems. Despite some progress in the reduction of the carbon intensity of energy systems and phasing out coal for electricity generation, European mitigations efforts remain inadequate to meet 2030 and 2050 reduction targets (section 3); European energy systems should decarbonise five times the current pace to reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Likewise, despite improvements in air pollution levels due to stringent air pollution emission controls, 94% of the European population is still estimated to live at PM2·5 concentrations higher than the WHO guideline (5 μg/m3 annual mean). Indicators in section 4 illustrate several substantial economic losses due to climate-related health impacts, including losses to due extreme events or reduced labour supply. Yet, European countries still provide overall subsidies to fossil fuels (total of €70·7 billion in 2019), providing further financial strains to meeting decarbonisation targets. Lastly, whilst strengthening the response to climate change requires key actors and institutions to engage with the health dimensions of climate change political, corporate, scientific, and individual engagement remains low (section 5) in the past decades.
Conclusion: This data highlights the accelerating trends in health-related hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities and risk from climate change, and the insufficiently ambitious adaptation and mitigation actions in Europe. However, with health, wellbeing, and equity at its core, accelerated action in line with climate targets could support a healthy, climate-resilient future for all.
Kim R. van Daalen,1,2 Marina Romanello,1 Joacim Rocklöv,3,4 Jan C. Semenza,3 Cathryn Tonne,5,6,7 Anil Markandya,8 Niheer Dasandi,9 Slava Jankin,10 Hicham Achebak,5 Joan Ballester,5 Hannah Bechara,10 Max W. Callaghan,11,12 Jonathan Chambers,13 Shouro Dasgupta,14,15 Paul Drummond,16 Zia Farooq,4 Olga Gasparyan,10 Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego,17 Ian Hamilton,18 Risto Hänninen,19 Aleksandra Kazmierczak,20 Vladimir Kendrovski,21 Harry Kennard,18 Gregor Kiesewetter,22 Simon J. Lloyd,5 Martin Lotto Batista,23 Jaime Martinez-Urtaza,24 Carles Milà,5,6,7 Jan C. Minx,5,7 Mark Nieuwenhuijsen,5,6,7 Julia Palamarchuk,19 Marcos Quijal-Zamorano,5,6 Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson,15 Daniel Scamman,16 Oliver Schmoll,21 Maquins Odhiambo Sewe,4 Henrik Sjödin,4 Mikhail Sofiev,19 Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali,17 Marco Springmann,25 Joaquin Triñanes,26 Josep M. Anto,5,6,7 Maria Nilsson,27 Rachel Lowe17,28,29 1 Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom 2 Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Cambridge University, Cambridge, United Kingdom 3 Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany 4 Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden 5 Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain 6 Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain 7 CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain 8 BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change, Bilbao, Pais Vasco, Spain 9 School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom 10 Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany 11 Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom 12 Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany 13 Energy Efficiency Group, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE) – University of Geneva, Switzerland 14 Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Venice, Italy 15 Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Sciences (LSE), United Kingdom 16 Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom 17 Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain 18 Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom 19 Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland 20 European Environment Agency, Kongens Nytorv 6, 1050, Copenhagen, Denmark 21 European Centre for Environment and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany 22 Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria 23 Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Department of Epidemiology, Brunswick, Germany 24 Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain 25 Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food and Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 26 Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain 27 Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden 28 Centre for Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), United Kingdom 29 Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
How to cite: van Daalen, K., Romanello, M., Rocklöv, J., Semenza, J. C., Tonne, C., Markandya, A., Dasandi, N., Jankin, S., Kendrovski, V., Schmoll, O., Anto, J. M., Nilsson, M., and Lowe, R. and the the Lancet Countdown in Europe consortium.: Towards a climate-resilient healthy future: the Lancet Countdown in Europe , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13565, 2023.
