NH9.7 | Intangible dimensions of climate hazards: health impact and dynamic social vulnerability assessments
EDI
Intangible dimensions of climate hazards: health impact and dynamic social vulnerability assessments
Convener: Marcello ArosioECSECS | Co-conveners: Eunice Lo, Timothy TiggelovenECSECS, Samuel LüthiECSECS, Lena ReimannECSECS, Ana Maria Vicedo Cabrera, Chiara ArrighiECSECS
Orals
| Fri, 28 Apr, 08:30–12:20 (CEST)
 
Room 1.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Fri, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Hall X4
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Fri, 14:00
Extreme weather events and disasters are putting more people at risk due to changes in climate, environmental and socioeconomic conditions. In today’s intricate socio-technological world, the interdependencies between exposed elements and human health and social vulnerability are crucial. With various weather systems affecting different parts of the world, local feedbacks enhancing or suppressing the hazards, differential rates of climate change, and varying levels of societal preparedness to hazards, understanding systemic impact relationships requires the assessment of direct tangible but also indirect and intangible dimensions of risk.

Quantifying and understanding the risk of these hazards and their impacts on health and the dynamics of social vulnerability is essential for society to adapt to current and future change. These complex relationships call for a paradigm shift in impact and risk assessment of extreme events towards focusing on a wider perspective of risk including indirect and intangible impacts. Addressing these aims will help improve our understanding of the interplay between hazards and impacts on health and society. Furthermore, addressing these multi-disciplinary research aims requires insight into spatial and temporal changes in the dynamics of social vulnerability (e.g., socioeconomic and demographic characteristics) in the pretext of cascading or compound impacts, which is often lacking in conventional risk assessments.

This section invites contributions that address this complex context with a special focus on:
- assessing direct and indirect impacts that are induced by any kind of natural hazard, both acute and slow-onset or by a combination of concurrent/cascading hazard
- intangible impacts beyond the 'standard' direct monetizable losses (e.g., disruption of critical services and supply, business interruption, loss of irreplaceable items or ecosystem services)
- exploring novel methods for mapping temporal and spatial social vulnerability (machine learning, spatial disaggregation techniques) and analyze temporal and spatial dynamics in social vulnerability (both observed changes and future changes)
- impacts on physical and mental health and (future) health impacts of long-term exposure to climatic stressors and adaptation to prevent adverse health outcomes
- impacts on specific population groups (e.g., socially vulnerable groups) and on health care systems

Orals: Fri, 28 Apr | Room 1.31/32

Chairpersons: Marcello Arosio, Timothy Tiggeloven, Chiara Arrighi
Indirect and intangible dimension of hazards: accounting for dynamic social vulnerability
08:30–08:35
08:35–08:45
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EGU23-8792
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Robert Sakic Trogrlic, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, and Karina Reiter

Despite the rising importance of both systemic and multi-risks caused by interrelated natural hazards (e.g., compound, cascading, consecutive), there is still an apparent lack of unifying frameworks that allow for harmonized assessment and management of these risks. This paper presents a six-step framework developed as part of the HORIZON 2020 MYRIAD-EU project, with the framework flexible enough to cover single, multi- and systemic risk analysis, including measurement, modelling and management dimensions. The six steps are: i) finding a system’s definition, ii) characterization of direct risk, iii) characterization of indirect risk, iv) evaluation of direct and indirect risk, v) defining risk management options, and vi) accounting for future systems state. The framework is developed based on systemic risk ideas, drawing a need to delineate clear system boundaries and identify interdependencies of system elements, ultimately enabling system of systems approach that can incorporate complexities in a manageable level for a diverse set of risk bearers. As done traditionally, in the process of risk assessment, we first propose an assessment of direct risks, emerging due to direct contact of system elements with a hazard(s). However, we suggest to move forward and then focus on indirect risks emerging due to interdependencies in the system and in response to direct risk realization, especially within a co-produced selection of indirect risk metrics with relevant stakeholders. Risk management options, including indirect risk management, are then considered, with a special emphasis on synergies and asynergies of risk management options between hazards, sectors, and impact types and between top down and bottom-up related risk management instruments. While the paper is focused on a detailed presentation and discussion of the conceptual framework, given that the framework is currently applied in five pilots across Europe (Danube, Canary Islands, Scandinavia, North Sea, and Veneto Region), it also brings initial results from practical implementation, including initial tools and methods, challenges, and opportunities.

How to cite: Sakic Trogrlic, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., and Reiter, K.: A Framework for Multi- and Systemic-Risk Analysis: Focusing on Indirect Risks Based on Dependencies, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8792, 2023.

08:45–08:55
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EGU23-5964
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On-site presentation
Stefano Clò and Samuele Segoni
Italy is a country seriously affected by landslides and floods: these hydro-geological hazards persistently cause fatalities and severe economic losses, but to date little is known on the indirect effects that such hazards exert on the local and national economy.

In this nation-wide study, the indirect effects of hydro-geological phenomena on Italian firms are assessed by coupling some indicators of the performance of Italian firms, and a dataset of flood and landslide events.

Econometric indicators were defined starting from data provided by organizations such as INPS, ISTAT, CERVED, Tax Registry and Bank of Italy. A geodatabase providing the timing and location of harmful hydro-geological events was compiled by an automated web datamining procedure based on a semantic algorithm scanning internet news. These datasets, with a spatial detail at the municipality level, cover the period from 2010 to 2020 and a statistical analysis was carried out to assess to which extent hydro-geological disasters affected the competitiveness of local economies.

The results showed that firms located in municipalities hit by a relevant event face on average a 4.8% increase in the probability of exiting the market with respect to non-impaired firms. Moreover, surviving firms seem to be slightly affected by natural disasters, in particular on the revenue side (-3.5%) and, to a lesser extent, on employment (-1.7%). We also explored the heterogeneity of these effects, discovering that indirect impacts seem more relevant for micro and small businesses, for those active in services and those located in rural and suburban areas.

How to cite: Clò, S. and Segoni, S.: Assessing the indirect impacts of hydro-geological hazards on Italian firms: a nation-wide assessment, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5964, 2023.

08:55–09:05
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EGU23-13206
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On-site presentation
Pui Man Kam, Sylvain Ponserre, Chahan M. Kropf, and David N. Bresch

Weather-related events were responsible for nearly 95 per cent of all disaster displacement recorded over the last decade. An average of 21.5 million internal displacements were triggered per year by weather related hazards. Although displacement can be a “short-term” pre-emptive evacuation measure that effectively prevent injuries or loss of lives, people whose home or livelihoods are destroyed or threatened might be forced into medium to long-term displacement.

Risk assessment for displacement could help inform anticipatory action that protects people from the harmful impacts of being displaced. Past studies used CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation), an open-source probabilistic natural catastrophe risk assessment platform, to estimate the displacement risk in future for weather related hazards taking in account climate change variation in intensity and frequency and population growth. The platform also enables the implementation of impact forecasting for displacement for impending tropical cyclone events, with the possibility to transfer the implementation to other hazards and impact types.

However, displacement is much more complex and context-dependent. The modelling assumptions may not be able to represent all the drivers and complex processes of displacement. From our modelling experience we will shed some light on the potential of probabilistic risk assessment for displacement, and the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis that quantify the confidence of model outputs. We will identify and discuss the current scientific gaps of displacement risk modelling, and the way forward to support decision making process in mitigating displacement risk.

How to cite: Kam, P. M., Ponserre, S., Kropf, C. M., and Bresch, D. N.: Risk modelling for human displacement: what we’ve learnt and what’s next?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13206, 2023.

09:05–09:15
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EGU23-15442
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On-site presentation
Enrica Caporali, Gabriele Bertoli, and Chiara Arrighi

Environmental assets are critical to human well-being, ecosystem vitality and the equilibrium of natural processes. Despite their recognized importance in providing numerous ecosystem services, their value remains essentially intangible and difficult to monetize. For this reason, environmental assets are rarely included in flood exposure and impact assessments, despite being required by Directive 60/2006/EC. A common thinking is that floods are a natural phenomenon and as such they should not be detrimental for environmental assets. However, the literature identifies impacts on fish fauna, habitats, tree survival and plant reproduction. This work has the objectives of (i) identifying which environmental assets are to be included in the exposure analysis, (ii) analysing the environmental value based on objective parameters and based on the social value recognized by a group of users to whom an online test is administered. The developed methodology is based on three levels with increasing of detail (from regional/national to local analysis). In the first level, exposed environmental areas are evaluated based on the level of regulatory constraint. In the second, environmental areas are assigned their main ecosystem services, and in the third, the ecosystem service subcategory is further detailed. The level 1 and 2 methods are applied to the entire Tuscany Region (Italy) for low hydraulic hazard areas mapped by the Hydrographic District of the Northern Apennine, the level 3 methodology is applied to the Val d'Orcia and Val di Chiana catchments. The results particularly highlight at the regional level the exposure of wetlands of recognized international value, lakes and all water resources that provide numerous ecosystem services for supply and regulation, and UNESCO-recognized cultural landscapes.

How to cite: Caporali, E., Bertoli, G., and Arrighi, C.: Valuing environmental assets for flood exposure assessment, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15442, 2023.

09:15–09:25
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EGU23-319
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Tristian Stolte, Elco Koks, Hans de Moel, Lena Reimann, Marleen de Ruiter, Jasper van Vliet, and Philip Ward

In this study, we compile and review the required and available data to do a global-scale urban vulnerability assessment for different hazards. Over the past decades, cities around the globe have rapidly increased in size. A larger concentration of people, assets, and economic activities in cities also mean that more elements are potentially located directly in harm’s way if a hazard occurs. The impacts of natural hazards are often expressed within the disaster risk framework, which describes disaster risk as a probabilistic function of hazard (i.e. the natural hazard event that potentially causes harm), exposure (i.e. those elements that are potentially in harm’s way), and vulnerability (i.e. the characteristics of the exposed elements that make them more or less susceptible to harm). Thus far, urban vulnerability has been investigated primarily on the local scale and is often led by data availability rather than suitability. To enable a more informed decision making process in vulnerability assessments, we aim to provide an overview of both relevant and available vulnerability indicators for six different hazards (pluvial flooding, coastal flooding, drought, earthquakes, heatwaves, and waterborne diseases). Our methodology is threefold: (1) An exhaustive overview of relevant urban vulnerability characteristics through a semi-systematic review of the peer-reviewed scientific literature (3000+ papers). Our focus is on empirically derived vulnerability characteristics, but we supplement this with information from modelled, theorized, adopted, or unknown derived sources. (2) An overview of available urban vulnerability indicators from supra-national urban datasets in a data review (100+ datasets). (3) A comparison of the relevant vulnerability information from the literature review with the available vulnerability data from the data review in order to explore what data acquisition activities are most needed in the context of urban vulnerability assessments. Lastly, we also discuss the outlook of a temporally dynamic (i.e. with values for different moments in time) vulnerability dataset with full global coverage in the urban context. The results can be used to inform researchers and urban decision makers tasked with disaster risk reduction on viable vulnerability indicators.

How to cite: Stolte, T., Koks, E., de Moel, H., Reimann, L., de Ruiter, M., van Vliet, J., and Ward, P.: Urban Vulnerability: Requirements and Data Availability on the Global Scale, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-319, 2023.

09:25–09:35
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EGU23-3570
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Virtual presentation
Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, Laurence Hawker, and Jeff Neal

Global flood risk maps combine data from hydrodynamic models with gridded population or GDP data to estimate the amount of people or wealth likely to be exposed to future flood events. These estimates rarely incorporate measures of social vulnerability, which is a key source of variation in outcomes for exposed populations. They also use arbitrary return period thresholds, which can disguise potentially catastrophic hazards. To address these limitations, we integrate annual average exceedance probability estimates from a high-resolution (~90m) flood model with gridded population and economic data to create a global vulnerability-adjusted risk index for flooding (VARI Flood). This human welfare-centred approach radically alters how we perceive the geography of risk and could be used as a complement to traditional population or asset-centred approaches. We present global results for both unadjusted and vulnerability-adjusted risk at the subnational (Admin 2) level; country case studies illustrate how accounting for vulnerability changes the perceived subnational geography of risk. Globally, adjusting for vulnerability significantly reduces the total number of people estimated to be at ‘high risk’ from  over 575 million to about 117 million. However, this latter estimate is likely an underestimate given the relatively coarse resolution of the economic data available, which disguises variation in vulnerability between communities within large cities and urban regions. Given the increasing concentration of the global human population in cities, there is an urgent need to improve the resolution of vulnerability mapping within large human settlements to inform mitigation measures. 

How to cite: Fox, S., Agyemang, F., Hawker, L., and Neal, J.: A vulnerability-adjusted approach to global flood risk mapping, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3570, 2023.

09:35–09:45
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EGU23-15593
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Virtual presentation
Nicole van Maanen, Tessa Möller, Tabea Lissner, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, and Upmanu Lall

Floods are one of many climate change extremes causing massive economic and non-economic losses and damages. The recent 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC highlights that flooding will be more widespread at 2°C compared to 1.5°C and even more pronounced at higher levels of global warming. To prevent or reduce impacts from flooding, structural measures for flood protection through hard infrastructure are the most common intervention, as they directly manage flood hazards by controlling flow through streams and prevent water overflow. Adaptation options specifically include dikes, flood control gates, weirs, dams, storage and proper waste management.

 

While flood protection could substantially reduce the economic costs of flood events and counts as the most effective adaptation strategy in the water sector to climate change, scenarios for future flood protection are still in their infancy. Consequently, quantitative assessments of climate change (i.e., impact models), which themselves include numerous uncertainties, cannot adequately account for adaptative flood protection in current risk assessments. We propose a Flood Protection Index (FPI) that captures the current level of flood protection across the globe using various data sources. By identifying adaptation-relevant quantitative socioeconomic variables within the framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and accounting for future climatic risk, we will be able to project five scenarios for flood protection alongside the SSPs. For the first time, we will show how different socioeconomic trajectories could modulate future flood impacts. These scenarios can be included in quantitative assessments of climate change and improve risk assessments in the 21st century.

How to cite: van Maanen, N., Möller, T., Lissner, T., Schleussner, C.-F., and Lall, U.: Scenarios for adaptive flood protection alongside the SSPs for improved climate risk assessment, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15593, 2023.

09:45–09:55
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EGU23-12544
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Lotte Savelberg, Marc van den Homberg, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Ylenia Casali, and Tina Comes

Social vulnerability is a key concept that guides the design, evaluation, and targeting of humanitarian and development programs worldwide. However, vulnerability remains an abstract concept, and many methodologies and assessment tools exist to characterize vulnerability. What is missing is a standardized framework to determine which method is most useful to assess social vulnerability and to determine the sensitivity of different methodologies.

In this paper, we make a headway in addressing this gap by comparing two methods for assessing social vulnerability and their sensitivity in a case study for Burkina Faso: 1) the inductive principal component approach (SoVI) and 2) the hierarchical equal weighting approach (INFORM).  Our hypothesis is that the spatio-temporal characterization of social vulnerability is highly sensitive to different methods and the quality of the input data.

To test the impact of the different methods, this paper presents a case study of Burkina Faso. Burkina Faso, is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world ranking 161th on the ND-Gain Index, highly vulnerable to natural hazards and man-made disasters. While many vulnerability assessment methods focus on natural hazards, our case study assesses a combination of conflicts and floods by calculating the social vulnerability for all 351 communes of Burkina Faso. Given the limited availability of data with high spatial and temporal resolution, we rely on a variety of data from mostly open global data repositories. We focus on characterizing the spatial characteristics for one year (2020).

Our results show a considerable difference in the spatial social vulnerability rankings of communes for the different methods. The hierarchical approach shows a larger standard deviation within the social vulnerability scores, and at least 50% of the communes have a rank differentiation of 50 positions compared to the inductive approach.

When comparing the performance of the methods with the challenges present in the quantification of social vulnerability, we argue that equal weighting approaches perform better in data scare areas. However, the inductive approach provides better insights in temporal dynamics and the relations between different indicators that are represented by the index.  

The substantial differences in outcomes of the methods, implies that different methodologies may lead to different policy decisions in humanitarian and development programs. It is therefore crucial to better understand the methodological differences and to understand which methodologies can quantify social vulnerability both spatially and temporally when facing a lack of high-quality data. This study is a call for action to be very careful in relying entirely on one method and the need to develop a deeper understanding of the different methods available and which characteristics are required to satisfy the needs of humanitarian and development programs.

How to cite: Savelberg, L., van den Homberg, M., Zatarain Salazar, J., Casali, Y., and Comes, T.: Comparing hierarchical and inductive methods to characterize social vulnerability. – A Burkina Faso  case study, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12544, 2023.

09:55–10:05
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EGU23-9978
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Philipp Marr, Thomas Glade, Alejandra Jiménez Donato, Klaus Gspan, Astrid Preissler, Marc Adams, Massimiliano Pittore, Silvia Cocuccioni, and Marcel Hürlimann

The Covid-19 pandemic as well as the climate crisis, to name two examples only, have taught us the importance of the systemic impact of compounding disasters. Stakeholders in disaster risk management are faced with the challenge to adapt their risk reduction policies and emergency plans but lack the tools to account for the cross-sectoral impacts and dynamic nature of the risks involved. The EU Horizon project PARATUS (Promoting disaster preparedness and resilience by co-developing stakeholder support tools for managing the systemic risk of compounding disasters – CL3-2021-DRS-01) aims to develop an open and online, user-centred platform for systemic risk assessment with the possibility for analysing and evaluating multi-hazard impact chains, risk reduction measures and disaster response scenarios incorporating systemic vulnerabilities and uncertainties. This platform is co-developed with stakeholders and addressing the dynamic physical, socio-economic, and environmental aspects. 

The development of this platform will be achieved by learning from past events to understand their dynamic and interactive behaviour of hazards and related risks. Disaster histories will be collected through the analysis of representative past events in so-called learning case studies. From the gained knowledge a generic methodology will be developed for a systemic multi-sectoral and multi-hazard risk assessment which will be applied within the PARATUS project in four application case study areas. The application case study in the European Alps will be introduced in this contribution and refers to the stretch between Innsbruck (Austria) and Bozen (Italy). Here, we focus on the impact of the interruption of cross-border transportation of the Brenner highway caused by extreme events in a mountainous environment, such as extreme wind, floods and flash floods, landslides including rockfall, debris- and mudflow, snow avalanches, and heat. Besides the experiences of the responsible stakeholder ASFiNAG, another focus will be on local communities.  For instance, the future regional economic impact will be projected for various climate and hazard scenarios related to the interruption of cross-border transportation due to compounding events. Additionally, the involvement of Austrian and Italian local and regional stakeholders in the above-mentioned activities will foster the co-development of the project platform with their experiences. The final platform will allow the access to additional information in order to support and foster the local and regional developments to achieve a safer environment. 

How to cite: Marr, P., Glade, T., Donato, A. J., Gspan, K., Preissler, A., Adams, M., Pittore, M., Cocuccioni, S., and Hürlimann, M.: The European alpine transport corridor – investigating the systemic impact of compounding disasters within the PARATUS project, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9978, 2023.

10:05–10:15
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EGU23-5616
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Gabriele Bertoli and Chiara Arrighi

Critical facilities are crucial buildings for the community and in case of natural hazards their functionality must be guaranteed. Specific building codes and up-to date studies are commonly available for facing earthquakes, but it is not the same for other natural hazards, such as floods. The older facilities might stand in flood prone areas, but from the recent years such structures are usually built far from the major river network and outside the known inundation areas. Probably this is the most common and, sometimes, the only, mitigation measure adopted against floods. Also, moving critical facilities far from the main river network, means that they are settled near and over the secondary river network, which is often not known in-detail and characterized by small basins with sudden responses, high urbanization, and with heavy modifications to the natural existing drainage system. Moreover, critical facilities are seldom included in flood risk analyses, especially regarding the indirect impacts. The work is based on a case study area located in Florence (Italy), where one major hospital of the central Italy and one relevant learning center of University of Florence are built over a culverted stream, surrounded by the secondary hydrograph network, inside a set of small sub-basins. A hydrological analysis was carried out, and the hydraulic modeling of the stream was implemented with the help of geophysical prospecting. Particular attention was dedicated to the assessment of direct and indirect impacts of the hazard. The direct impacts were studied starting from a collection of all the building-specific installations and systems, then formulating a damage curve in function of the water height. The indirect and intangible impacts, which can worsen the impacts of the flood, were carefully researched and investigated taking in account factors, among others, as the building accessibility during and after the flood event, the expected service disruption time, the possibility of the structure to be used as shelter, the fluctuation of the number of people expected to be in the building during the event, the consequences on people and on the community of the service disruption, the seasonality impact. Eventually, a comprehensive damage (impact) evaluation technique was developed.

How to cite: Bertoli, G. and Arrighi, C.: Flood risk assessment of educational and health critical facilities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5616, 2023.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Eunice Lo, Ana Maria Vicedo Cabrera, Vikki Thompson
10:45–10:50
10:50–11:00
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EGU23-13565
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Kim van Daalen, Marina Romanello, Joacim Rocklöv, Jan C. Semenza, Cathryn Tonne, Anil Markandya, Niheer Dasandi, Slava Jankin, Vladimir Kendrovski, Oliver Schmoll, Josep M. Anto, Maria Nilsson, and Rachel Lowe and the the Lancet Countdown in Europe consortium.

Introduction: As one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions and the world’s third largest economy, Europe is a key stakeholder in the world’s response to climate change and has a global responsibility and opportunity to transition towards a low-carbon economy for healthier, more resilient societies with clean air and liveable cities.  The Lancet Countdown in Europe is the first comprehensive assessment that monitors health and climate change over space and time in Europe reporting on 33 indicators focusing on (section 1) impact, exposure, and vulnerability; (section 2) adaption, planning and resilience; (section 3) mitigation actions and health co-benefits; (section 4) economics and finance; and (section 5) politics and governance.

 

Results: Health risks (section 1) for almost all indicators tracked have been increasing. Illustratively, clinically relevant pollen seasons are starting 10-20 days earlier each year (1981-2020), the climatic suitability for water-borne and vector-borne diseases (e.g., malaria, dengue, Vibrio) have been rapidly increasing (1951-2020), and - assuming no adaptation - heat exposure is estimated to have increased by 57% between the first and second half of the 21st century. However, some encouraging trends for adaptation (section 2) could be observed - with countries adopting adaptation plans for health (15/22 assessed in 2021), cities recognising the threat of climate change to public health (118/197 assessed in 2021), or countries implementing early warning systems. Despite some progress in the reduction of the carbon intensity of energy systems and phasing out coal for electricity generation, European mitigations efforts remain inadequate to meet 2030 and 2050 reduction targets (section 3); European energy systems should decarbonise five times the current pace to reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Likewise, despite improvements in air pollution levels due to stringent air pollution emission controls, 94% of the European population is still estimated to live at PM2·5 concentrations higher than the WHO guideline (5 μg/m3 annual mean). Indicators in section 4 illustrate several substantial economic losses due to climate-related health impacts, including losses to due extreme events or reduced labour supply. Yet, European countries still provide overall subsidies to fossil fuels (total of €70·7 billion in 2019), providing further financial strains to meeting decarbonisation targets. Lastly, whilst strengthening the response to climate change requires key actors and institutions to engage with the health dimensions of climate change political, corporate, scientific, and individual engagement remains low (section 5) in the past decades.

 

Conclusion: This data highlights the accelerating trends in health-related hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities and risk from climate change, and the insufficiently ambitious adaptation and mitigation actions in Europe. However, with health, wellbeing, and equity at its core, accelerated action in line with climate targets could support a healthy, climate-resilient future for all.

 

How to cite: van Daalen, K., Romanello, M., Rocklöv, J., Semenza, J. C., Tonne, C., Markandya, A., Dasandi, N., Jankin, S., Kendrovski, V., Schmoll, O., Anto, J. M., Nilsson, M., and Lowe, R. and the the Lancet Countdown in Europe consortium.: Towards a climate-resilient healthy future: the Lancet Countdown in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13565, 2023.

11:00–11:10
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EGU23-3427
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Dann Mitchell, Rosa Barciela, Gareth Griffith, Antonio Gasparrini, Eunice Lo, and Charles Simpson

Weather and climate variability and trends impact health in a range of different ways. In this work I will cover five hazards, heat/drought, cold, storms/flooding, wildfire, and ‘other’ (e.g. hazards related to infectious diseases). I will give a summary of an expert judgment regarding how much various health outcomes associated with these hazards currently impact the UK population, and how this might change in the future. I will discuss how long exposure needs to be to the hazard before the health outcome is detectable. I will finish with highlighting where there are significant gaps in the literature, and where research groups and funding agencies should focus more, not just in the UK context, but the world. 

 

This work was done through the Met Office academic partnership “temperature and health” group, and involves a group of 50+ experts in climate and/or health. 



How to cite: Mitchell, D., Barciela, R., Griffith, G., Gasparrini, A., Lo, E., and Simpson, C.: Climate and health in the UK: Thinking across hazards and timescales, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3427, 2023.

11:10–11:20
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EGU23-13633
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Laura Paredes-Fortuny, Coral Salvador, Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, and Samira Khodayar

The Iberian Peninsula is known as a hotspot of climate change where heatwaves (HW) have become more frequent and severe over the last decades. These extreme temperature events are associated with devastating socioeconomic consequences.

 

Here we address the relationship between HW characteristics and impact on health at 12 Spanish cities over the last 45 years. The findings will contribute to developing accurate proxies to monitor mortality and to develop mitigation strategies at local scale. 

 

This study aims to explore how different HW characteristics, namely duration, intensity and frequency, influence mortality in 12 different cities of Spain. The ensemble of cities reflects a diversity of climates in Spain, with for example coastal and inland, Mediterranean and Atlantic and lower and higher population density cities. Besides, the performance of two health indices, the recovery factor (RF) and the excess heat factor (EHF), as proxies of HW health impact is investigated to assess which type HWs are potentially more harmful for society and which is its dependence with the city characteristics. The RF measures the capacity to recover at night from daytime heat exposure, while the EHF measures the impact of a sudden heat income. 

 

We used the high resolution (5km) observations of daily maximum and minimum temperatures (AEMET, in English Spanish MetService) to identify HW events, defined as at least 3 consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures above percentile 95th of the reference period, and daily time series of mortality information (INE, in English National Institute of Statistics) for the 12 different Spanish cities. In this study HWs are identified at each gridpoint and then the HWs affecting each city are analysed.

 

Here we study how HWs and its characteristics have evolved during the extended summers (May to September) of the 1975-2019 period across cities. Afterwards, we analyse the relationship between HWs and mortality using a quasi-Poisson regression model and distributed lag non-linear models. Models were adjusted by daily mean temperature to obtain the independent effect of HWs from the risk associated with temperature effect. We additionally tested for potential interactive effects by fitting interaction models between temperature and HW typologies (i.e., using different indices). 

 

Results show that despite a general HW magnification affecting the whole study area, there are significant differences in the characteristics of the HWs at local scale, which could affect the relationship between HW and mortality. Preliminary results for the 3 most populated cities show a significant added risk of mortality during a HW compared to a day without a HW in Mediterranean cities (up to 1.5% in Barcelona and up to 1.2% in Valencia) while non significant results are obtained in Madrid, in central Spain (less than 1.1%). No substantial differences in mortality risk were found in the other cities when comparing a day with a HW and without a HW. 

 

Our findings support the need for local analysis of the synergies between HW and mortality. 

How to cite: Paredes-Fortuny, L., Salvador, C., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., and Khodayar, S.: The impact of heatwave characteristics on the mortality in Spanish cities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13633, 2023.

11:20–11:30
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EGU23-13044
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Charles Simpson, Oscar Brousse, and Clare Heaviside

Outdoor temperatures experienced by people in urban areas are typically higher than those in rural areas due to the urban heat island, but indoor temperatures also vary as a result of differences between buildings. We combined modelling of temperature at city and building scales, to determine the most important sources of variation in exposure to heat stress across London and Southeast England. 

We modelled outdoor temperatures using the WRF model with BEP-BEM for the hot summer of 2018, and used the output to force the EnergyPlus building model to estimate indoor temperatures of residential buildings.

We investigated variations in the residential building stock across the region, as well as demographics. The latter is important because health risks posed by heat also vary with the population’s age, health, and socioeconomic status.

Within the study region, we found large differences in exposure to heat between the urban population of London and the general population of Southeast England, and that as a result outdoor heat exposure is highest for ethnic minority groups, younger people, and the more socioeconomically deprived. However, variations in outdoor temperature within the urban areas of London were much smaller than the variations between London and the rest of the southeast.

We compared the variation in the outdoor temperature with the variation in indoor temperature, building on evidence that flats (apartments) are more likely to overheat, and are more often located in hotter parts of the city than houses. This has implications for interventions on the built environment designed to reduce the health impacts of heat.

By combining thermal modelling at different scales with demographic data, we aim to improve understanding of the sources of personal variations in heat-hazard within the population.

 

How to cite: Simpson, C., Brousse, O., and Heaviside, C.: Multi-scale analysis of exposure to heat in Southeast England, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13044, 2023.

11:30–11:40
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EGU23-482
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Djacinto Monteiro dos Santos, Renata Libonati, Beatriz Garcia, João Geirinhas, Barbara Salvi, Eliane Silva, Julia Rodrigues, Leonardo Peres, Ana Russo, Renata Gracie, Helen Gurgel, and Ricardo Trigo

Climate Change has increased population exposure to more frequent, more intense, and longer heat waves (HWs) worldwide. South America and particularly Brazil is highly vulnerable to rising temperatures, with limited adaptation resources and a growing and aging urban population. However still lacks research on the direct and indirect impacts of extreme heat on health in these regions, in particular on the role of social and demographic factors, as well as regional disparities in heat-related mortality. This work presents a comprehensive analysis of the occurrence of HW in the 14 most populous metropolitan regions (MRs) in Brazil, comprising circa 35% of the country's population, based on the Excess Heat Factor index. The impact of HWs on mortality was accessed employing the ratio between observed and expected deaths (O/E), which reveals a burden of 48,075 excess heat-related excess deaths over the 2000–2018 period, in line with the recent and significant increase observed in the annual number of days under extreme heat. Diseases of the circulatory and respiratory systems and neoplasms are the dominant causes of death (COD), although other COD little explored in the literature have also presented large O/E values in some MRs, such as diseases of the skin, nervous and genitourinary system, and mental and behavioral disorders. In addition, the vulnerability population profile was investigated considering the splits in terms of gender, age, race, and educational level subgroups. Overall, females, older, low-educational level, and black/brown are the most sensitive groups in most MRs, with significantly larger O/E values. Nonetheless, significant regional disparities were observed, mainly due to North-South socio-economic inequalities existing in Brazil, and differences in health indicators between these regions, such as life expectancy. Our findings are expected to guide the implementation of public mitigation and adaptation strategies in some of the most populated regions of South America.

This work was supported by FIOCRUZ [grant VPPCB-003-FIO-19] and FAPERJ [grant E26/202.714/2019]. D.M.S. was supported by FIOCRUZ [grant VPPCB-003-FIO-19].

How to cite: Monteiro dos Santos, D., Libonati, R., Garcia, B., Geirinhas, J., Salvi, B., Silva, E., Rodrigues, J., Peres, L., Russo, A., Gracie, R., Gurgel, H., and Trigo, R.: Heat-related excess mortality in Brazilian urban areas: regional, demographic and social disparities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-482, 2023.

11:40–11:50
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EGU23-5666
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Avik Kumar Sam, Siuli Mukhopadhyay, and Harish C. Phuleria

Dengue, the most prevalent arthropod-borne viral infection, is endemic to 100+ countries. Dengue transmission is highly sensitive to climatic and meteorological conditions such as temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, as indicated by the association between increased climatic suitability and expansion of regions at risk. In India, dengue is endemic to all 28 states and eight union territories, with a gradual shift historically observed in their spatial distributions from urban to rural areas. The rising burden due to its frequent outbreaks causes an unprecedented burden on the economy and the health system. Thus, in order to formulate adequate strategies for mitigating dengue risks in future, it is essential to study the patterns in dengue transmission and the influence of meteorological/climatic variables. The present study aims to understand the spatiotemporal variations in dengue cases and the effect of weather parameters on dengue outcomes across India over the past 15 years. State-wise annual data on dengue cases and deaths during 2007 - 2022 was collected from the National Vector-borne Disease Control Programme. India reported more than one million dengue cases and 2,712 deaths for the period, with the highest cases observed in 2021. 73% of the total cases occurred between 2016 and 2022, indicating increased dengue outbreaks across the country. Overall, the case fatality was 2.1 (per 1000 cases), the highest seen in 2007 (12.5). The northern region, with eight states and UTs, reported the highest case count contributing 28% of the country’s caseload. Positive anomalies in the maximum temperature (against a 15-year annual average) were observed from 2012 to 2019, while minimum temperature had negative anomalies – the effect of the same on dengue cases and mortality is being examined along with the effect of socioeconomic differences across the states.

Figure 1 Spatial distribution in dengue cases and deaths across India between 2007-2022. The red dots indicate the deaths. 

How to cite: Sam, A. K., Mukhopadhyay, S., and Phuleria, H. C.: Dengue in India: association with weather and socioeconomic variables, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5666, 2023.

11:50–12:00
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EGU23-12419
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Virtual presentation
Martin Boudou, Shivam Khandelwal, Coilin Óhaiseada, Patricia Garvey, Jean O'dwyer, and Paul Hynds

Latest IPCC projections (2022) suggest significantly  increased future incidence of infectious disease due to global warming and shifting climate patterns. Due to increasing global mean temperatures and extreme weather event frequency, assessing the potential impacts of climate change on infectious disease represents a critical challenge for public health authorities. This is particularly significant for environmentally-acquired infections which are directly or indirectly driven by local weather conditions. The current study sought to explore the relationship between antecedent weather and three gastrointestinal infections in the Republic of Ireland, namely cryptosporidiosis, Verotoxigenic E. Coli (VTEC) and campylobacteriosis.

Irreversibly anonymised cases of infection were acquired from the national Computerised Infectious Disease Reporting (CIDR) database. Overall, 4,509 cases of cryptosporidiosis (2007 - 2017), 2,755 cases of VTEC enteritis (2013 - 2017) and 20,274 cases of campylobacteriosis (2011 - 2018) were employed. Individual cases were geographically linked to a Census Small Area (SA).

Weekly seasonal adjustment of developed time series (trend & residuals of seasonally decomposed time-series) were undertaken for both climate and infection variables (incidence rate per 100k population). Climate variables were lagged from 1 to 20 weeks to account for likely delayed associations. A series of Spearman’s correlation matrices were subsequently developed. Infections hotspots were identified and used to construct space-time cluster frequency maps (Boudou et al., 2021, Cleary et al. 2021), with Monte-Carlo simulations used to simulate the effects of weekly mean temperature and rainfall changes on space-time cluster frequency. Analyses were delineated (restricted) based on season and settlement type (i.e., rural, urban, commuter areas).

Spearman’s correlation matrices confirmed the presence of ranked associations between rainfall, temperature and all three infections. Weekly VTEC and campylobacteriosis incidence were positively associated with the non-lagged mean temperature (Rho >0.6). Maximum positive associations were obtained between non-lagged rainfall (mm) for VTEC (Rho=0.68) and campylobacteriosis (Rho= 0.6), while a delayed positive association was found for cryptosporidiosis with a maximum Rho of 0.21 (Week 19). Findings from Monte-Carlo simulation provided strong insights on the direct impacts of temperature and rainfall changes on infection cluster frequency. An increase of 1oC in weekly temperature was simulated to result in an 25% increase in the number of Small Areas reporting a space-time cluster of campylobacteriosis. Similarly, a 5mm increase in weekly rainfall was shown to increase the number of rural SAs reporting a space-time cluster of cryptosporidiosis by ≈4%.

Study findings leave little doubt as to the significance of climate patterns for all three infections, with all shown to increase (incidence rates and/or cluster occurrence) in concurrence with increasing temperatures and rainfall volumes. Accordingly, there is a pressing need for development of adapted health strategies within the context of predicted climate change (i.e., increased testing/surveillance and treatment capacity, improved risk communication during extreme weather events,…). This result points out the need to promote multidisciplinary researches by including meteorologists, hydrologists and engineer in public health planning strategies.

How to cite: Boudou, M., Khandelwal, S., Óhaiseada, C., Garvey, P., O'dwyer, J., and Hynds, P.: The effect of weather and simulated climate parameters on three gastro-intestinal infections in the Republic of Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12419, 2023.

12:00–12:10
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EGU23-17387
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On-site presentation
Freddy Bangelesa, Christian Merkenschlager, Elke Hertig, and Heiko Paeth

An adequate representation of the distribution of mosquitoes transmitting vector-based diseases under future climate change conditions is essential to estimate the occurrence of those diseases in areas such as the Mediterranean. For this purpose, species distribution models are used to establish a statistical relationship between recent and future environmental conditions and the spread of species. The 19 BioClim variables have been widely used to drive these models because they represent key features (e.g. hot, cold, dry, humid) of different temporal dimensions (quarter or month). The scientific community has paid less attention to the difficulties that arise when using BioClim variables, including how well the climate model can reproduce them. This study intended to assess the skill of 10 different high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment’s CORE initiative that represent BioClim variables in Mediterranean regions. The skill analysis was implemented using the metrics of spatial correlation, spatial standard deviation and the mean absolute percentage error. The result reveals that REGCM4 and REMO15 are the best-performing RCMs in terms of standard deviation and the mean absolute percentage error, and RACMO and CCLM4 are the best-performing RCMs in terms of spatial correlation. The result shows that temperature-based BioClim variables are better represented by the majority of RCMs compared to precipitation models. A huge uncertainty remains when it comes to the representation of quarter-based variables. Hence, future studies should be focused on improving the representation of BioClim variables, especially those related to precipitation, by applying appropriate bias correction techniques. The best-performing RCMs of this study will be used to derive different species distribution models of Anopheles mosquitoes over the Mediterranean regions to estimate the future distribution of vector-based diseases.

How to cite: Bangelesa, F., Merkenschlager, C., Hertig, E., and Paeth, H.: Evaluation of CORDEX-CORE RCMs in representing BioClim variables for mosquito distribution models in Mediterranean regions, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17387, 2023.

12:10–12:20
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EGU23-11102
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Ara Kim and Gayoung Yoo

Outdoor thermal comfort is important to city dwellers' well-being and health. Pedestrians are especially sensitive to thermal environments, and their thermal comfort is expected to be at risk due to the urban heat island effect combined with climate change. Pedestrian thermal comfort assessment is crucial to comprise sustainable climate change adaptation strategy. However, pedestrian thermal comfort has been simply evaluated using the survey asking pedestrians about their comfort levels via oral or paper interviews. The survey's shortcoming is that it does not reflect the dynamics of the ever-changing environment and the resultant responder's physiology. The development of wearable sensors overcame the survey's limitation and allowed to detect human physiological responses reflecting the changes in the surrounding environment more objectively. Among several physiological parameters, heart rate(HR) is a representative proxy for physiological thermal stress reflecting environmental heat load. It can be easily monitored by a smartwatch wearing an optical blood flow sensor. Therefore, we aim to investigate the applicability of physiological thermal comfort evaluation based on pedestrians' HRs monitored using a smartwatch in real-walking settings. The experiment was conducted on four streets with an east-west orientation in Suwon, Gyeonggi-do, Korea. The four streets were selected with high or low effects of grey and green infrastructure on the streets' thermal environment based on a building-height-to-street-width(H/W) ratio of 2 and the percentage of tree canopy cover(%TCC) of 50, respectively. The 32 voluntary pedestrians walked one street a day for an hour(14:00-15:00) with a smartwatch(Mi-band4) to record HR of each pedestrian. During walking, microclimates (air and globe temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity) were monitored using a portable meteorological station. After walking, the survey was conducted by asking about their feelings while walking as thermal comfort level. We defined the thermal environment created by grey and green infrastructures as the difference between the street's mean radiant temperature(Tmrt) calculated by the street's microclimates and the official air temperature from the automatic weather station. We also suggested the physiological thermal comfort index(PTCI) to quantify physiological thermal comfort including the cardiovascular risk based on HRs. Consequently, we found the tree's effect was contradictory according to the H/W ratio. The increment of 10%TCC reduced Tmrt by 1.1℃ on the low H/W ratio street but rose Tmrt up to 0.1℃ on the high building street. The TCC's heat dissipation hindrance might cause this result because TCC could block the wind path and interfere with air circulation rather than having the cooling effect of the tree-formed shades on streets where high buildings already form sufficient shade. The PTCI results reflected the thermal environment of each street well because a 10%TCC rise decreased the cardiovascular risk by 8% on the low building street but increased the risk up to 7% on the high building street. However, pedestrians could not perceive the thermal environments' distinctions among streets due to interruption of aesthetic quality other than microclimates. Therefore, we identified that physiological thermal comfort based on HR is more appropriate to be used as a basis for establishing adaptation strategies for pedestrians.

How to cite: Kim, A. and Yoo, G.: Warable sensor-based thermal comfort assessment for pedestrianconsidering the ever-changing thermal environment and physiological response, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11102, 2023.

Posters on site: Fri, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | Hall X4

Chairperson: Eunice Lo
X4.95
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EGU23-6997
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ECS
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Elisa Nobile, Marcello Arosio, Mario Martina, and Alessandro Caiani

Floods are among the most frequent and costliest natural hazards worldwide and the associated human and economic losses are expected to increase due to climate change, urbanization and population growth. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a comprehensive understanding of the economic impacts of these disasters on our interconnected society. This should include the indirect impacts (e.g. business interruption, service disruption, cascading effects), which have been very often overlooked, especially in engineering works.

For this reason, this study reviews the recent scientific literature in the fields of economy and engineering on the socio-economic impacts of floods to derive the current state-of-the-art of the indirect impacts estimation. Given the complexity of the problem, it is necessary to integrate economic theory studies, which in general tend to focus on flow losses, and civil engineering studies, which, on the other hand, have centred their attention mainly on stock losses.

The different frameworks, methodologies and empirical studies are analysed through a systematic qualitative and quantitative review. The published articles are derived from well-known scientific database by setting indicators and keywords.

The results highlight the different sectors (e.g. economic sectors, firms, transportation system) and the different metrics (e.g. monetary values, time, space), adopted to quantify the indirect impacts, as well as the different purposes (e.g. risk assessment, risk management) of each study.

This work derives the current knowledge on the estimation of indirect impacts of flooding to provide clarity on the different perspectives of indirect impacts. Moreover, the findings can help to underline key gaps in the existing scientific literature and to indicate future research work.

How to cite: Nobile, E., Arosio, M., Martina, M., and Caiani, A.: Flood indirect impacts assessment: A systematic review of models and empirical literature, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6997, 2023.

X4.96
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EGU23-7305
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ECS
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Sonali Manimaran and David Lallemant

Southeast Asia (SEA) is among the regions that are most at risk of experiencing climate change-induced human migration. It is home to more than 675 million people, many of whom reside in lower-middle income countries, with pre-existing social vulnerabilities and poverty, largely in low-lying coastal cities. SEA regularly experiences natural hazards, including floods and typhoons, whose impacts are expected to be magnified by climate change, and compounded by newer hazards, such as sea-level rise (SLR). Some level of climate migration is inevitable in this region, but with appropriate management, the scale of migration can be reduced and can serve as an effective adaptation strategy.

To better understand the scale of SLR-induced migration, as well as to identify the areas and population groups most at risk, this study employs a radiation model, which has previously been shown to be successful in predicting internal migration flows. In this study, the radiation model is used to predict the migration flows in SEA due to SLR, and to identify hotspots of sending and receiving regions of migrants. Specifically, future migration flows in Indonesia and Philippines are modelled from 2050 to 2100, looking at baseline non-climate migration, as well as SLR-induced climate migration, for a range of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and population growth projections. Preliminary results show a ~25% increase in migrant outflows under SLR scenarios relative to baselines, and a ~50% increase in inter-provincial migration rates. This indicates that SLR-driven migration will be significant for these countries and needs to be managed in a way that does not exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. This entails implementing in-situ adaptation measures in locations where it is still feasible, and facilitating relocation where in-situ adaptation would not be feasible. The radiation model is an effective way to predict migration flows at sub-national and national scales, and can be applied to other countries in SEA, given that the data inputs for the model are readily available.

How to cite: Manimaran, S. and Lallemant, D.: Modelling Climate Migration in Southeast Asia due to Sea-Level Rise, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7305, 2023.

X4.97
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EGU23-10357
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ECS
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Jeanette Choong, Dennis Wagenaar, and David Lallemant

Conventional disaster loss models measure risk and impact solely based on the volume of assets potentially lost to a disaster. While asset-based metrics are useful in providing an overview of the immediate physical losses, they neither fully capture the disparate impacts on different social groups nor the knock-on impacts that people continue to experience post-disaster. The problem with relying on asset-based metrics alone is that it leads to decisions that gravitate towards the protection of asset-rich areas as they seemingly have more to at risk. In doing so, it obscures the protection needs of asset-poor regions, and in extreme cases, could further exacerbate impacts and issues of inequity. Since one of the main goals in disaster risk modelling is to effectively inform disaster risk reduction strategies, the approach decision makers use to quantify risk matters. This is especially important in geographies that experience both high levels of disaster risk and inequity. In this study, we highlight the utility of ‘non-asset-based’ disaster loss models for equitable planning outcomes through the following contributions: (1) A literature review comparing the types of existing non-asset-based disaster loss approaches; (2) An applied comparison of the conventional asset-based approach and select non-asset-based approach(es) for the case of coastal flooding in the Philippines. We use this comparison to emphasize the need for better risk and loss metrics for planning and decision-making by demonstrating that moving from asset-based to non-asset-based approaches leads to a shift in municipalities prioritised for protection.

How to cite: Choong, J., Wagenaar, D., and Lallemant, D.: How non-asset-based disaster loss models better quantify risk: A case study of coastal flooding in the Philippines., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10357, 2023.

X4.98
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EGU23-11639
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Highlight
Mario Lloyd Virgilio Martina, Marcello Arosio, Chiara Arrighi, Alessio Domeneghetti, Gabriele Farina, Riccardo Giusti, Daniela Molinari, Marco Pilotti, and Annarita Scorzini

Flooding is among the leading climatic threats to people’s livelihoods, affecting development prospects worldwide. While the danger is already substantial, climate change and rapid urbanization in flood zones will likely further drive-up flood risks.  

The support from flood risk assessment studies, which quantify the impacts of hazardous events on the built environment, economy and society, is fundamental for defining and implementing strategies to manage and reduce flood risk effectively. However, according to the typology of considered assets, there are different methodologies for flood risk assessment. While for direct physical and monetary dimensions, the scientific community offers a variety of widely used models, the application of models beyond these dimensions is much less frequent, and the selection and implementation of a model for estimating indirect losses or impacts for a given application case are not straightforward.

This work presents the lesson learnt from the recent updating process of the Flood Risk Management Plan of Po River District Authority carried out in the context of the MOVIDA project ((https://sites.google.com/view/movida-project, 2022), in compliance with the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC). The analysis spread across the following assets: residential buildings, crops, dairy farms, commercial and industrial sectors, strategic facilities, roads and railways, cultural heritage, environment and population. In particular, this study critically examines and discusses the needs and challenges faced by the research consortium to implement a comprehensive impact. Furthermore, the major bottlenecks for the different assets are explored across the standard dimensions: state of art, data availability and openness, spatial/temporal resolution and scale, methodology framework and implementation.

How to cite: Martina, M. L. V., Arosio, M., Arrighi, C., Domeneghetti, A., Farina, G., Giusti, R., Molinari, D., Pilotti, M., and Scorzini, A.: Flood impacts beyond the direct and physical ones: the case of the Po catchment in Italy, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11639, 2023.

X4.99
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EGU23-4320
Ioannis Kougkoulos, Yuke Xie, Myriam Merad, Stella Apostolaki, and Simon J. Cook

In the Mediterranean, substantial economic losses are incurred each year due to flash floods; their rapid onset and unpredictability is a significant challenge for regional and national government responses. To help communities foresee and prevent some flood-related impacts, researchers often provide flood risk prevention models that rank different sub-basins within a single watershed from highest to lowest risk. Nevertheless, in countries within the EU, decisions to act against flooding (and other disasters, such as wildfires and storms) are often taken after interaction with the concerned municipality or regional government. We argue here that attempting to act across multiple scales simultaneously adds confusion and limits the capacity for effective disaster operations management. In order to address those complexities and suggest an ideal scale for future modelling of flash flooding in similar areas we focus on Storm Alex which formed on the 30th of September and dissipated on the 3rd of October 2020 producing the worst rainfall in 120 years in the French Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA) region, causing 16 fatalities. The most heavily impacted community was that of Saint-Martin de Vésubie in the Vésubie river watershed. Past research on this event has focused mainly on a) describing how the event unfolded and b) illustrating issues in French Flood Risk Governance (FRG) providing useful data surrounding the event but neglecting the decision-making issue of watershed vs. municipality scales mentioned above. We use Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) that draws information from satellite imagery, GIS and web resources to create a desk-based flash flood risk assessment and then use it to analyze the impacted area in two different scales; a) the watershed scale, dividing the Vésubie watershed into 10 sub-basins following terrain topography, and b) the municipality scale, using the limits of the 11 municipalities covering the Vésubie watershed. MCDA helps decision-makers structure multi-faceted decisions and evaluate alternatives (e.g. sub-basins, municipalities) according to a set of criteria. Here, criteria include building density, average elevation, average river slope, vegetated area, distance from the main river, land cover, past wildfires and past landslides. Our analysis results in two separate rankings (one of sub-basins and one of municipalities) from lowest to highest risk of flash flooding. Depending on the scale chosen, the resulting risk ranking of some areas changes, leading to a new debate on how we should approach flash flood risk in Mediterranean mountain basins in order to take better decisions and limit economic impacts and loss of life in a changing climate.

How to cite: Kougkoulos, I., Xie, Y., Merad, M., Apostolaki, S., and Cook, S. J.: Choosing the appropriate spatial scale for flash flood risk assessments in Mediterranean mountain watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4320, 2023.

X4.100
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EGU23-14503
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ECS
Ester García Fernández, Salvador Gil-Guirado, Alfredo Pérez-Morales, Eloisa Raluy-López, Leandro Segado-Moreno, Francisco Sánchez-Jiménez, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, and Juan Pedro Montávez

The global climate system undergoes climatic oscillations due to natural factors. However, there are scientific evidences proving that, currently, human activity appears as the main accelerating factor of this process of change (Cuartas & Méndez, 2016). There is sufficient evidence linking the effects of climate change with the increase of premature deaths and diseases worldwide. More alarming are the forecasts of an increase in these negative impacts on human health, especially threatened by extreme weather events, which are also expected to increase in frequency and intensity (Pörtner et al., 2022). Another additional problem arises when verifying the relationship between social conflicts and extreme weather events (Burke, Hsiang & Miguel, 2015). The Spanish Mediterranean coast is an area highly exposed to flood risk as a consequence of the combination of its natural and social conditions. For this reason, the Mediterranean society has suffered, and continues to suffer, enormous material and human losses during heavy rain events. Therefore, it is really important to analyses the social, economic and demographic elements that explain the space-time differences of mortality according to floods, as well as the sociopolitical impact that these events have been able to cause. On this matter, the use of primary media sources emerges as a fundamental search engine for analyzing the social factors underlying flooding processes (Gil-Guirado et al., 2019). Their main strength is the great capacity of these sources to directly associate information on a flood with the socio-demographic profile of the victims.

This work, thanks to newspaper sources, reconstructs the socio-demographic profile of flood victims in the municipalities of the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula between 1950-2022. With the resulting database, a statistical and cartographic analysis has been carried out, highlighting the spatio-temporal changes produced. Analysis of the data shows a high figure of flood casualties in the study area (1.368 victims). Among the main findings were that, despite of the fact that the number of victims presents a negative trend, the number of flood events resulting in casualties is increasing. Regarding the socio-demographic profiles of higher vulnerability, a new temporal variability consistent with the economic changes that have occurred in the study area has been detected. A worrying increase in mortality has been detected among two distinct population groups: tourists and the elderly. However, in the opposite way, it is observing a negative trend in infant mortality. Additionally, we carry out a Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) to detect possible correlation between floods with fatalities and changes in municipalities in the elections following the event in question. We conclude that floods have not been a factor of political change in the study area, except in the case of catastrophic events close to an electoral process.

How to cite: García Fernández, E., Gil-Guirado, S., Pérez-Morales, A., Raluy-López, E., Segado-Moreno, L., Sánchez-Jiménez, F., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., and Montávez, J. P.: Flood mortality and political changes on the Spanish Mediterranean coast of the Iberian peninsula (1950-2022)., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14503, 2023.

X4.101
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EGU23-9618
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ECS
Coral Salvador, Pedro Gullón, Manuel Franco, and Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera

Heat poses a great environmental health concern, especially in densely populated urban areas. However, evidence of heat-related cause-specific morbidity is still uncertain. Further evidence on the role of socioeconomic context and individual characteristics as potential risk modifiers is also needed, especially considering the expected increase of exposure and vulnerability to extreme heat events in the future due to climate change.

This study aims 1) to analyse the short-term association between heat exposure and the first acute cardiovascular disease event (CVE) in adult residents in the city of Madrid during the summer months (June-September) between 2015 and 2018, and 2) to conduct a vulnerability assessment based on five social and health indicators: sex, age, area-level deprivation, country of origin, and presence of comorbidities.

The analysis was conducted using the dataset collected by the Heart Healthy Hoods project (https://www.hhhproject.es/) from 2015 to 2018. Information of CVEs was based on electronic medical records of adults aged 40-75 who were registered in any primary health centre of Madrid from 2015. Daily maximum temperature was the exposure variable (°C, 5km grid), which was provided by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain. We conducted a case-crossover design using a conditional logistic regression model with a distributed non-lineal model to flexibly account for the non-linear and delayed effect (2 days of lag) of temperature on CVE. Odds ratios were estimated for extreme heat (97th temperature percentile in Madrid) compared to the minimum risk temperature. We conducted a stratified analysis by categories of social indicators and sub-diagnosis groups.

Overall, extreme heat increased the risk of CVE by 15.3% (95%CI: 1.010-1.317) in adult residents in Madrid. Larger risks were found in males (risk increased by 24.8%), non-Spanish (risk increased by 86.9%), and deprived populations, where a clear dose-response was observed by deprivation levels (risk increased by 6.2% for low deprivation to 22.8% for high deprivation). A positive but not robust association was observed in the rest of the population groups, with similar effects between age groups. Our results also suggest that underlying diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidaemia did not substantially increase the heat-related CVE risk.

Heat increased the risk of CVE among adults in Madrid. Social conditions such as sex, country of origin and deprivation level were important predictors of inequality in heat-related cardiovascular disease. Public health policies should pay special attention to vulnerable individuals since climate change is expected to increase social inequalities and continue disproportionately affecting disadvantaged populations.

How to cite: Salvador, C., Gullón, P., Franco, M., and Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.: The role of social inequalities in heat-related cardiovascular morbidity in adults in Madrid, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9618, 2023.

X4.102
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EGU23-13075
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ECS
Samuel Lüthi, David N. Bresch, and Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera

The risk of extreme heat mortality is ever increasing with the rapidly changing climate. However, several studies that project future levels of heat mortality have been criticized to be over-pessimistic, as these studies don’t reflect on communities’ ability to adapt to heat. Adaptation to heat is highly complex and not only complicated by the changing climate but also by other mega-trends such as ageing societies or urbanization. In this work, we therefore model future levels of heat-related mortality whilst incorporating location-specific empirical adaptation as a function of mean summer temperature and time.

Concretely, we model the relationship between daily temperature and mortality by using quasi-Poisson regression time series analyses with distributed lag nonlinear models, which is a well-established approach in climate change epidemiology. The relationship expresses the change in mortality risk at specific temperature values against an optimum temperature (the so-called temperature of minimum mortality, MMT). We first model this relationship for continuous five-year intervals for several locations. Next, we express the change in MMT as a linear function of mean summer temperature and time. Adaptation is thus incorporated by shifting the MMTs according to future temperature levels and by when they are reached.

This modelling approach allows us to assess heat mortality levels for different climate scenarios at the same level of global warming but at different points in time in the future. Potential findings of this approach are relevant, as the public debate and climate policy focuses largely on warming levels (1.5, 2°C) and to a lesser extent on how fast these levels are reached.

How to cite: Lüthi, S., Bresch, D. N., and Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.: Does the rate of warming matter for heat-mortality?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13075, 2023.