A review of key material supply constraints to the future deployment of batteries in energy system modelling

This paper presents a literature review identifying the issues relating to the supply of battery materials most likely to cause constraints. The efforts to decarbonize the electricity and transport sector cause an increasing demand for batteries. Batteries are deployed as energy storage to facilitate high shares of variable renewable energy and in battery electric vehicles. With this rising deployment, the demand for materials utilized in battery technology follow. Lithium, graphite and cobalt are examples of important battery materials expected to experience immense demand growth. The continued access to these materials is essential to decarbonize the electricity and transport sector, which is crucial to meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement.

The increased demand for these materials makes it of importance to consider possible constraints to their availability. This paper investigates issues across disciplines to assess these constraints. Causes to such constraints include: (i) Material scarcity, when a material is utilized to the point where reserves are depleted. (ii) Geopolitical issues, which could cause disruptions in supply of a material if reserves are mainly located in one country or region. (iii) Social issues, such as poor working conditions or the effect of extraction on the local environment and population. The literature review is performed to identify these key issues for the supply of critical materials for battery technology, and identify how each of these might constrain the deployment of batteries in the energy system. The key constraining factor of each battery material is identified, and the degree to which this might constrain the deployment of batteries is assessed.

Energy system models are often used to assess how to transition to future net-zero energy systems.  To better address sustainability as well as to account for the feasibility of the transition, material constraints should be implemented in the energy system model. This could also lead to optimized energy system developments showing greater resilience against the risks associated with these constraints. The work will provide a comprehensive overview of the main limiting factor to the supply of materials critical to batteries, and with that form a basis for the implementation of these constraints in energy system models.