ITS3.2/ERE2.8 | Energy transition – re-orientation of the energy system towards defossilization and a fundamentally new perception on energy production and consumption

ITS3.2/ERE2.8

Energy transition – re-orientation of the energy system towards defossilization and a fundamentally new perception on energy production and consumption
Including ERE Division Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award Lecture
Convener: Wilfried Winiwarter | Co-convener: Viktor J. Bruckman
Orals
| Tue, 25 Apr, 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.94/95
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 25 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Attendance Tue, 25 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
vHall ERE
Orals |
Tue, 14:00
Tue, 10:45
Tue, 10:45
Providing sufficient energy while minimizing climate impacts has become an essential challenge for our society, and the difficult geopolitical situation in Europe, combined with energy scarcity adds momentum to finding solutions quickly. At the Austrian Academy of Sciences, a working group has formed to explore the situation in Austria and Europe regarding pathways of a sustainable energy transition. Findings so far have demonstrated that the issue can’t be solved entirely on technological progress, but it needs a general re-thinking on how much energy is needed for decent living towards provision of services rather than energy. Increased efficiency, reduced energy consumption and smart grids as well as consuming devices are identified to be key pillars of a successful energy transition.
The context of the climate crisis as laid open in the recent IPCC reports (www.ipcc.ch) and the political response in form of the European Green Deal (https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en) demand treatment at highest scientific standards to provide well-founded responses to the society.
This session welcomes contributions that address energy transition from various perspectives, e.g. (but not limited to): energy production, transmission, storage, smart systems, efficiency, human behavior, energy markets and legislation, energy saving. In particular, we welcome contributions that address energy transition from a holistic point of view, that integrates the technological with societal aspects.

Orals: Tue, 25 Apr | Room 0.94/95

Chairpersons: Wilfried Winiwarter, Viktor J. Bruckman
14:00–14:05
14:05–14:15
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EGU23-228
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
James Fallon, David Brayshaw, John Methven, Kjeld Jensen, and Louise Krug

Reserve power systems are widely used to provide power to critical infrastructure systems in the event of power outages. The reserve power system may be subject to regulation, typically focussing on operational time, but the energy required for ensuring the supply of reserve power may be highly variable. The energy required may be strongly influenced by prevailing weather conditions and seasonality, for example, heating and cooling requirements have strong temperature sensitivities. Reserve infrastructure can therefore offer potential benefits and services back to the wider electricity system when not in use, supporting a transition to low-carbon technologies such as wind and solar power.

Drawing on the Great Britain (GB) telecommunications systems as an example, we present a methodology and case studies demonstrating that historic meteorological reanalyses can be used to evaluate the capacity of reserve required to maintain the regulated target of 5-days operations. Across three case-study regions with diverse weather-sensitivities, it is shown that infrastructure with cooling-driven electricity demand leads to a peak in the energy consumption during the summer, thus determining both the overall capacity of the reserve required and the availability of 'surplus' capacity (with the surplus appearing during other periods of the year when demand is lower).

Both the total capacity and surplus are further shown to depend strongly on risk preference, with lower risk tolerance leading to substantial cost increase (in terms of capacity required) but also enhanced opportunities for the use of surplus capacity. It is also shown that meteorological forecast information enables greater volumes of surplus capacity to be accessed for a given reserve capacity and risk tolerance.

The availability of surplus capacity is compared to a measure of supply-stress (so-called demand-net-wind) on the wider GB energy network. For infrastructure with cooling-driven demand (typical of most UK telecommunication assets), it is shown that surplus availability peaks during periods of supply-stress, offering greatest potential benefit to the national electricity grid.

How to cite: Fallon, J., Brayshaw, D., Methven, J., Jensen, K., and Krug, L.: Releasing Climate-Sensitive Critical Infrastructure Power Reserves to Improve Grid Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-228, 2023.

14:15–14:25
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EGU23-11901
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Maryam Kadkhodaei, Alexis Tantet, Philippe Drobinski, and Philippe Quirion

Increasing renewable energy penetration is essential for achieving carbon neutrality in the electricity system. In this regard, the most promising technologies are wind and PV. The degree of penetration of these technologies in the mix is affected by their capacity factor.

The objective of this study is to determine the sensitivity of the electricity system to changes in the capacity factor of wind and PV, not only uniform changes but also the changes in the low and high wind or PV production conditions. Simulations were performed using EOLES, an investment and dispatch optimization model. This model minimizes the total system cost by satisfying hourly demand, respecting technical and operational constraints, and giving us the optimal electricity system for a given input. This result provides an overview for the decision makers deciding how much capacity to install. In addition, to reflect the realistic situation of the energy system, in which we have already invested in installed capacities, EOLES is used only for dispatch optimization with the pre-fixed installed capacities.

Output variables chosen for sensitivity tests are total system cost and installed capacity of production technologies. Their sensitivity to changes in the average capacity factor was measured using elasticity quantity, which is calculated by dividing the relative change of the chosen output variable by the relative change of the capacity factor average. Uncertainty of capacity factor in the different production conditions of wind and PV was modeled by perturbing a specific quantile of the capacity factor dataset at each test and uniform errors by uniform perturbation of all time steps. Furthermore, perturbations of different magnitudes and signs are included to show the behavior of EOLES concerning the amount of perturbation.

The result shows the EOLES model is more sensitive to change in the capacity factor of the wind and least to PV for both Installed capacities and total system cost; also, it is more sensitive to the perturbation of low-production than high-production conditions. For instance, the elasticity of the installed capacity of PV and wind to perturbation of their capacity factor in low-production conditions is 15 and one, respectively, and it is approximately zero for both PV and wind in high-production conditions.

Optimization of installed capacities and dispatch in response to capacity factor perturbations results in a weak sensitivity of the total system cost (elasticities less than 0.5). On the other hand, optimizing only dispatch leads to having the elasticity of the total system cost as high as 14. Comparing elasticities indicates that installed capacity optimization compensates for the effect of capacity factor perturbation on total system cost. However, fixed installed capacity leads to either having an oversize system in positive or extra usage of expensive reserve technologies in negative perturbations; as a result, the higher elasticity of the total system is expected. Considering the high sensitivity of the low production events of the wind, it is worth improving our modeling of smaller capacity factors, including choosing a wind dataset, a bias correction method, and a power curve.

How to cite: Kadkhodaei, M., Tantet, A., Drobinski, P., and Quirion, P.: Evaluating the sensitivity of the total system cost and installed capacity of technologies of the electricity system to the perturbation of the wind and PV capacity factor, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11901, 2023.

14:25–14:35
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EGU23-14331
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Tobias Verheugen Hvidsten, Marianne Zeyringer, and Fred Espen Benth

This paper presents a literature review identifying the issues relating to the supply of battery materials most likely to cause constraints. The efforts to decarbonize the electricity and transport sector cause an increasing demand for batteries. Batteries are deployed as energy storage to facilitate high shares of variable renewable energy and in battery electric vehicles. With this rising deployment, the demand for materials utilized in battery technology follow. Lithium, graphite and cobalt are examples of important battery materials expected to experience immense demand growth. The continued access to these materials is essential to decarbonize the electricity and transport sector, which is crucial to meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement.

The increased demand for these materials makes it of importance to consider possible constraints to their availability. This paper investigates issues across disciplines to assess these constraints. Causes to such constraints include: (i) Material scarcity, when a material is utilized to the point where reserves are depleted. (ii) Geopolitical issues, which could cause disruptions in supply of a material if reserves are mainly located in one country or region. (iii) Social issues, such as poor working conditions or the effect of extraction on the local environment and population. The literature review is performed to identify these key issues for the supply of critical materials for battery technology, and identify how each of these might constrain the deployment of batteries in the energy system. The key constraining factor of each battery material is identified, and the degree to which this might constrain the deployment of batteries is assessed.

Energy system models are often used to assess how to transition to future net-zero energy systems.  To better address sustainability as well as to account for the feasibility of the transition, material constraints should be implemented in the energy system model. This could also lead to optimized energy system developments showing greater resilience against the risks associated with these constraints. The work will provide a comprehensive overview of the main limiting factor to the supply of materials critical to batteries, and with that form a basis for the implementation of these constraints in energy system models.

How to cite: Hvidsten, T. V., Zeyringer, M., and Benth, F. E.: A review of key material supply constraints to the future deployment of batteries in energy system modelling, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14331, 2023.

14:35–14:45
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EGU23-7547
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Thomas van Huyssteen, Djiby Thiam, and Sanderine Nonhebel

Electricity production has a significant impact on the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus sectors as it requires substantial amounts of water and land, whilst also being a primary polluter of these resources. In addition, electricity production is a key contributor to global CO2 emissions.  With electricity production predicted to increase by over 50% by 2050, the impact of electricity production on water and land resources, as well as the environment, will need to be significantly reduced This is particularly important in countries facing water, energy, and food scarcity and insecurity such as South Africa. This paper therefore investigates the impact of electricity production on the WEF nexus sectors and environment in South Africa. To do this, this paper conducts a lifecycle assessment of the water footprint (WF), land footprint (LF), and carbon footprint (CF) of electricity production in South Africa, by electricity source, and under key scenarios. The results from the IRP 2030 scenario showed that despite a 63% increase in electricity production targeted from 2018-2030 in South Africa, the water, land, and carbon footprints of electricity production would decrease by 29%, 9%, and 5.5% respectively. Compared to the BAU 2030 scenario, it was shown that the water, land, and carbon footprints would be 55.5%, 42.6%, and 41.5% lower in the IRP 2030 scenario, respectively. Overall, the results show that to reduce the impact of electricity production on the WEF nexus sectors and the environment, integrated resource planning, switching away from fossil fuels, particularly coal, and promoting the use of non-hydro and non-biomass renewables is required.

How to cite: van Huyssteen, T., Thiam, D., and Nonhebel, S.: The Water, Land, and Carbon Intensity of Electricity Production: The Case of South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7547, 2023.

14:45–14:55
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EGU23-17241
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
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Jing Kang, Hui Kong, and Zhongjie Lin

Electric vehicles (EVs) have been proposed as a key solution for decarbonizing urban transportation and addressing climate change. As the use of EVs increases in cities worldwide, it may lead to significant transformation in urban development, including changes in the electrical system and people's travel behavior, such as charging preferences and choices of where to live and work. Some questions arise, will the rise of EVs lead to more suburbanization or drive people towards a more compact urban form? Additionally, how can the relationship between EV users' residential locations and new energy infrastructure be best coordinated? A study in the rapidly growing metropolis of Beijing aims to address these questions by combining geo-spatial big data analysis, machine learning, and theories of urban development to understand the relationship between EV users' residential locations and new energy infrastructure. A novel data mining strategy was proposed to identify actual EV users based on location data from smartphones. By analyzing observation data of EV users, the study applies the Gradient Boost Decision Tree model to examine the nonlinear associations between the spatial distribution of EV residents and neighborhood attributes such as employment density, GDP, land use mix, public charging accessibility, building areas, access to public transit, and suburbanization. The results indicate that a higher percentage of EV users prefer to live in areas that are neither too far away from the city center nor too close to it, particularly the threshold effects show that they are concentrated in areas where it has a 10 km distance from the city center. Additionally, the study found that most public charging activities tend to occur within 1.5 km from home, suggesting an optimal threshold for public charging station deployment. The findings of this study can help inform energy management and infrastructure planning at the local, regional, and national levels to promote sustainable urbanization and smarter energy planning in policy-making.

How to cite: Kang, J., Kong, H., and Lin, Z.: Assessing the Effects of Electric Vehicle Adoption on Urban Energy Structure Transition: A Geospatial Machine Learning Study in Beijing, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17241, 2023.

14:55–15:05
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EGU23-9187
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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Virtual presentation
Inga Labuhn and Adrien Deroubaix

Buildings are responsible for a significant proportion of total energy consumption and therefore represent an important target for energy savings. Their consumption is strongly temperature-dependent, as it is dominated by the heating and cooling demand to ensure thermal comfort inside.

To quantify the energy savings of a building over time (for example after renovation or with lowered indoor temperatures), it is necessary to remove the influence of meteorology on energy consumption and determine the part that is independent of weather, i.e. related to the building properties and its use. Current methodologies use daily energy demand proxies (degree-days) with fixed temperature thresholds for heating and cooling. However, hourly energy consumption is increasingly monitored by smart meters, and high-quality meteorological reanalysis data are available globally, giving access to a finer temporal scale on which variations in both outside temperature and building use are expected.

Here we present a case study using 10 years of hourly meteorological data and energy consumption data from a university campus in Germany. We analyze the meteorology-dependent energy consumption including its sub-daily variations. We investigate the differences in energy savings quantification depending on the time step used. The detailed knowledge of energy consumption patterns and their temperature sensitivity that we obtain also provides the basis for identifying potential future energy savings through retrofits and changes in user behavior.

How to cite: Labuhn, I. and Deroubaix, A.: Improving the quantification of building energy savings through temperature-sensitivity analysis, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9187, 2023.

15:05–15:15
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EGU23-4975
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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On-site presentation
S. Ping Ho, Yaowen Hsu, Yu-Tien Lin, and Chung L. Chen

Promoting and developing Zero Energy Buildings (ZEB) is crucial to achieving the goal of net-zero emissions. Zero Energy Buildings emphasize not only on buildings’ energy efficiency, but also on the transition of buildings’ energy consumption from nonrenewable energy to renewable energy. However, practically, since it is often impossible to achieve the “Zero” energy consumption in a strict sense, the concept of ZEB is implemented as Nearly Zero Energy Buildings (NZEB). Although adopting solar energy to achieve the goal of NZEB is currently one of the most feasible strategies, under what conditions the use solar energy for NZEB is technically feasible and how the building owners are motivated to invest in NZEB are still vague and challenging. As the solar power technology continues to advance and the environmental morality continues to rise in countries and societies, this study takes Taiwan as a case to study how feasible technically and behaviorally the NZEB is and what could be the main challenges.

Through extensive literature review and expert interviews, we analyze and establish the standards for defining the NZEB in Taiwan. Then we categorize the building types and residential energy consumption scenarios in Taiwan and investigate different approaches to installing solar photovoltaic systems. In sum, the two main approaches to installing solar photovoltaic systems are the roof floor installation and the roof trellis installation. The types of buildings to be studied are the terrace houses, the five-story apartments, and the eight-story apartments. To simulate the net energy consumption, firstly, Ladybug Tools is used to simulate the annual power generation of each solar photovoltaic installation in different climatic regions in Taiwan. Secondly, the formula for calculating the photovoltaic power generation is proposed according to the simulation results. Lastly, we analyze whether each installation approach can meet the specifications of NZEB under different energy consumption scenarios and evaluate, accordingly, the technical feasibility of achieving the goal of NZEB.

Based on the simulation, the roof trellis type is shown to generate the most power under the same construction area and to be the most feasible solar photovoltaic installation approach for the residential buildings to achieve NZEB.

We also analyze the economic feasibility of different NZEB scenarios using NPV and IRR methods. It is shown that, except for the eight-story apartments in the northern Taiwan’s climatic region, the simulated NZEB scenarios are economically feasible. Among them, the NPVs of the roof trellis type are lower than other schemes, the investment costs are expected to be recovered in about 13 to 17 years, and the IRR is about 5 to 7% for terrace houses and five-story apartments. To conclude, based on the current/modern solar photovoltaic technologies, NZEB can be well achieved for the residential buildings if the housing owners choose to invest.

Finally, whether the NZEB can be achieved depends on the house owners’ willingness to invest in NZEB, the main challenges of NZEB in Taiwan. We shall develop a consumer behavior model and form policy insights concerning NZEB.

Acknowledgment: Grant number 111-2124-M-002-006 and Grant number 110-2221-E-002-060

How to cite: Ho, S. P., Hsu, Y., Lin, Y.-T., and Chen, C. L.: Feasibility and Challenges of Adopting Solar Energy for Nearly Zero Energy Buildings: Lessons from Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4975, 2023.

15:15–15:25
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EGU23-11915
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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On-site presentation
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George Kirkmalis, George-Fivos Sargentis, Romanos Ioannidis, David Markantonis, Theano Iliopoulou, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Nikos Mamasis, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

Fertilizers and especially Nutrient Nitrogen, are high consumers of energy. At present, the energy crisis has a serious effect in the production of fertilizers. As the world is seeking to smooth the curves of energy production, especially by renewable energy installations, the use of potential energy surplus in fertilizers’ production could be an alternative practice. Fertilizers can be utilized for the cultivation of energy crops or food (which also has an energy equivalent). In this work, we attempt to evaluate the potential of the integration of fertilizers in the energy production both for energy recovery and for the avoidance of possible failures by the deficit of fertilizers in the global Water-Energy-Food equilibrium. 

How to cite: Kirkmalis, G., Sargentis, G.-F., Ioannidis, R., Markantonis, D., Iliopoulou, T., Dimitriadis, P., Mamasis, N., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Fertilizers as batteries and regulators in the global Water-Energy-Food equilibrium, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11915, 2023.

15:25–15:35
15:35–15:45
Coffee break
Chairpersons: Wilfried Winiwarter, Viktor J. Bruckman
16:15–16:20
16:20–16:50
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EGU23-11361
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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solicited
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ERE Division Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award Lecture
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On-site presentation
Johannes Miocic

The transition towards carbon-free, renewable based energy systems is a central element to limit global warming and is one of the key societal challenges we are currently facing. The subsurface offers many different pieces for the energy transition jigsaw, from renewable energy from geothermal sources to large volumes of pore-space to permanently sequester carbon dioxide. The subsurface also provides several options for storing renewable energy over seasonal timescales, by storing renewable energy surplus converted into hydrogen and compressed air. As the subsurface can be utilized for many different energy related purposes, it becomes clear that it has to be a crucial part of the energy-transition.  However, most subsurface utilization technologies are not yet used on the scale that is needed for a successful energy transition. One reason for this lies in the incomplete understanding of (geological) processes that occur in the subsurface during, and after, the operation of these technologies. Predicting the performance and the potential of subsurface utilisation in the energy transition can also be hampered by limited data availability and the uncertainties associated with sparse datasets. Here, some of the key geoscience challenges that need to be solved for a timely energy transition are presented and some potential solutions are reviewed. The subsurface can, and must, play an important role in tomorrow’s green energy systems!

How to cite: Miocic, J.: The role of the subsurface in the energy transition – (some of) the (scientific) challenges, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11361, 2023.

16:50–17:00
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EGU23-7310
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Jade Boutot and Mary Kang

Millions of oil and gas wells are abandoned and orphaned in Canada and the United States. These well sites can be repurposed for wind and solar energy, while the wells access itself can be redeveloped for geothermal energy production. To identify opportunities for repurposing abandoned and orphaned wells and well sites for renewable energy development, we analyze public oil and gas well data from state, provincial, and territorial agencies to estimate the number and geospatial distribution of abandoned and orphaned wells in Canada and the United States. As of March 2022, we identify 4,724 orphaned wells and 420,113 abandoned wells in Canada and identify 123,318 orphaned wells (as of March 2022) and 3,151,700 abandoned wells (as of August 2022) in the United States. Using this dataset, we analyze geographic locations of abandoned and orphaned wells with national maps of renewable energy potential (geothermal, wind, and solar) and land cover/land use in Canada and the United States. We then evaluate how the potential to repurpose wells/well sites vary across Canada and the United States. Due to funding shortfalls, many abandoned and orphaned wells remain unplugged and are negatively impacting the environment and contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. Repurposing wells and well sites can provide an additional funding stream to manage the millions of abandoned and orphaned wells around the world.

How to cite: Boutot, J. and Kang, M.: Potential to convert abandoned and orphaned oil and gas well sites for renewable energy production in Canada and the United States, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7310, 2023.

17:00–17:10
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EGU23-14495
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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On-site presentation
Khachatur Meliksetian, Gevorg Navasardyan, Lilit Sargsyan, Andrey Medvedev, Edmond Grigoryan, Peter LaFemina, Charles Connor, Vassily Lavrushin, Elya Sahakyan, Ivan Savov, and Natasha Toghramadjian

Armenia is a landlocked country in the South Caucasus region, situated between Iran, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, with population of about 3.0 million. Since Neogene to Quaternary times, the territory of Armenia has been located in a continent-continent collision zone (i.e., collision of the Arabian and Eurasian plates) and exposed to transpressional tectonics resulting in widespread and long-lasting polygenetic and monogenetic volcanic activity.

The studies of spatial density of vents in Armenia (Weller et al., 2018, Sugden et al.  2021) demonstrate that Armenia is one of the densest clusters of Quaternary monogenetic volcanoes on Earth: in total, 516 volcanoes are mapped within the area of  ~30,000  km2. Most of the monogenetic volcano clusters are oriented NW to SE, perpendicular to the major stress direction related to the movement of the Arabian plate from SW to NE.

Several active faults and potentially active and active volcanic systems exist in the country and many historical earthquakes have been recorded. The geology of Armenia with its volcanoes and active faults being potential source of hazards at the same time, has an important potential for geothermal energy, whilst much of Armenia’s current energy production is from imported fossil and nuclear fuel.

It is noteworthy, that hundreds of sources of thermal mineral waters exist in Armenia and most of them are found in close proximity to volcanic systems and active faults. Our preliminary geochemical studies of mineral waters aiming to apply geochemical thermometers to investigate the formation temperature of waters demonstrate several geothermal anomalies in Armenia. This contribution will present unified geological, geophysical, volcanological, geochemical database with selection of promising sites for further studies of geothermal energy potential of Armenia, and some preliminary results of application of ambient noise tomography (ANT) and satellite data.

How to cite: Meliksetian, K., Navasardyan, G., Sargsyan, L., Medvedev, A., Grigoryan, E., LaFemina, P., Connor, C., Lavrushin, V., Sahakyan, E., Savov, I., and Toghramadjian, N.: Assessment of geothermal energy resources and in Armenia, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14495, 2023.

17:10–17:20
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EGU23-4148
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
David C. Finger and Svend Hardenberg

The European Union consumes about 60 Exajoule (16.6 Peta Wh) of primary energy per year. In the past years, about 10% of this energy originated from natural gas (CH4). The dramatic developments in Ukraine and the accentuating climate crisis call for an eminent replacement of imported Russian natural gas with climate-neutral alternatives. Consumption reduction, enhanced energy efficiency, electrification, and industrial symbiosis should be prioritized. Being part of the European Economic Area, Iceland annually produces almost 20 TWh of green renewable electricity, using domestic hydropower and geothermal sources. About 80% of Icelandic electricity is exported in the form of energy-intensive products, namely aluminum and silicon. Due to the use of renewable energies, the exported Icelandic products disclose a very low carbon footprint. In regard to EU energy security and climate change targets, the Icelandic example may be used as a demonstration case for other energy products, namely hydrogen and power to X products. It may also be applied to other Arctic regions, namely Greenland, which is also part of the overseas countries and territories of the EU. In this presentation, we will demonstrate the following: i) how to assess the hydropower potential of remote Artic areas (Finger, 2018), ii) how excess hydropower can be used for green hydrogen production and subsequently converted to carbon-neutral CH4 (Cabalzar et al. 2021), iii) compare the life cycle analysis results of hydrogen produced in Iceland and mainland Europe (Vilbergsson et al. 2023) and iv) show the potential of Greenland to become a key player in decarbonizing the EU. While the first three topics have been well described and published (see references below), the potential of renewable energy production in Greenland is currently being investigated by the University of Greenland. One single fjord could yield an electricity production of over 2 GW and an annual yield of around 5 TWh. While exploiting such natural resources should consider local environmental, social, and economic aspects, the production of climate-neutral energy in the arctic can be an essential part of decarbonizing Europe – and be an alternative to other fossil-based foreign energy sources.

References:

Finger D. (2018) The value of satellite retrieved snow cover images to assess water resources and the theoretical hydropower potential in ungauged mountain catchments, Jökull, 68, 47-66. doi.org/10.33799/jokull.2018.68.047

Cabalzar U., Blumer L., Fluri R., Zhang X., Bauer C., Finger D., Bach C., Frank E., Bordenet B., and C. Stahel (2021) Projekt IMPEGA - Import von strombasiertem Gas, Aqua & Gas 6, 40-45, Schweizerischer Verein des Gas- und Wasserfaches

Vilbergsson K., Dillman K., Emami N., Ásbjörnsson E., Heinonen J., and D.C. Finger (in press) Can remote green hydrogen production play a key role in decarbonizing Europe in the future? A cradle-to-gate LCA of hydrogen production in Austria, Belgium, and Iceland, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, in press

How to cite: Finger, D. C. and Hardenberg, S.: Climate-Neutral Europe: the Role of Renewable Energies in the Arctic to decarbonize Europe and enhance energy independence, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4148, 2023.

17:20–17:30
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EGU23-3450
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Darpan Das, Avtar Matharu, Hannah Briers, and Nicola Carslaw

Rising energy costs and net zero carbon goals mean that the UK needs plentiful and clean energy sources. Current clean energy sources (biomass/ heat pumps) in the country are insufficient to meet residential space heating demands. Further with the advent of higher energy costs, residents are expected to start burning more solid fuel in their homes, as opposed to using gas-based central heating. The UK generates 222.2 million tonnes of waste annually, of which only ~45% is recyclable. The typical calorific value of municipal solid waste and agricultural/garden waste is ~10 MJ/kg and ~20 MJ/kg respectively. Traditionally, waste to energy (WtE) for the circular economy has been associated with waste incineration, but it could be used for household heating. Efficient utilization of waste through different thermochemical transition pathways has been primarily explored at an incineration plant scale (~50 MW heat) and not at a scale of residential heating stove (~5 kW). In the present study, we will use thermogravimetric analyzer- mass spectrometer (TGA-MS) to simulate conditions inside a heating stove. Reaction parameters would include packed bed temperature of 650 °C and heating rate of 10 °C/min for characterisation and assessment of the volatile species evolved during the thermal degradation of several waste materials. Pyrolysis behaviour of some typical household wastes would be analysed through characteristic reaction temperatures and evaluation of mass loss rates. The results from this study can contribute to better evaluation and testing of different waste materials with the aim to know their technical and economic feasibility for heat generation at a small scale.

How to cite: Das, D., Matharu, A., Briers, H., and Carslaw, N.: Potential of Waste to Generate Heat at a Domestic Scale, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3450, 2023.

17:30–17:40
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EGU23-9018
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Harald Desing

Staying below 1.5°C and returning to 350ppm require much more ambitious and radical actions than currently envisioned. This necessitates different modelling approaches too, transcending current economically optimized equilibrium models. Planetary boundaries need to span the frame for transition modelling, e.g. by setting sustainable limits for renewable energy potentials or incorporating the need to return to 350ppm, which induces negative emissions at a massive scale. Furthermore, building renewable infrastructure needs energy and this feedback loop becomes decisive when accelerating transitions. It also needs materials: speed and pathways of mobilizing materials are pivotal for impacts on planetary boundaries and the energy needed for the transition. Initial modelling with a simple, global system dynamics model suggest that it is still possible energetically to stay below 1.5°C and return to 350ppm this century; however, this requires to keep energy demand and energy storage low.

How to cite: Desing, H.: Accelerated energy transitions and the Earth system, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9018, 2023.

17:40–17:50
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EGU23-14326
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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On-site presentation
Heather Jean Arghandeh Paudler

Often overlooked, citizen-led energy initiatives contribute to the low carbon energy transition in Europe. Under the name of energy communities, these groups have been specifically addressed in two separate EU directives (Directives EU-2018/2001 and EU-2019/944). Their projects have grown to produce, distribute, and consume energy from renewable sources while being governed democratically and benefits accruing locally. Despite this, data collection on the topic and statistical accounting of their impacts have not been undertaken systematically until now. This short documentary film quantifies the aggregate contributions of collective action in pursuit of the sustainable energy transition in Europe, estimating the number of initiatives (10,540), projects (22,830), people involved (2,010,600), installed renewable capacities (7.2-9.9 GW), and investments made (6.2-11.3 billion EUR) for 30 European countries.

The data presented in the video draws on our groundbreaking dataset which is the first systematic data collection to capture the nature and scope of collective citizen-led action in the energy transition for each country in Europe (https://doi.org/10.18710/2CPQHQ). The dataset consists of a broad range of variables to a high degree of granularity, covering both organizations and the individual projects that they manage, e.g., installation of renewable capacities, operation of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, engagement in energy education and services provision, etc.

The documentary begins with background on energy services and cooperatives, highlighting 10 solutions by citizen action initiatives across Europe addressing various current issues of energy security, sustainability, and the affordable provision of energy services. While many of these initiatives are small in scope, they are of sufficient importance to policymakers as they actively involve people in the transformation. A "Facts & Figures" segment quantifies the aggregate contributions of citizen-led energy initiatives. These aggregate estimates do not suggest that collective action will replace government or commercial action in the short- or medium-term without fundamental alterations to policy and market structures, but the film presents strong evidence for the historical, emerging, and actual importance of citizen-led collective action to the European energy transition. Continued decentralization of energy systems and more stringent decarbonization policies will increase the importance of these actors in the future.

How to cite: Arghandeh Paudler, H. J.: "Power To & By the People": A documentary film on statistical evidence for the contribution of citizen-led initiatives to the energy transition in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14326, 2023.

17:50–18:00

Posters on site: Tue, 25 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X4

Chairpersons: Wilfried Winiwarter, Viktor J. Bruckman
X4.134
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EGU23-1471
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
Robert Jandl and Andreas Schindlbacher

Limited access to gas has stimulated a new interest in domestically available sources of renewable energy. Currently, about 13% of the Austrian national energy demand (1453.9 PJ) is met from forest biomass and residues from wood product manufactoring. The share of renewable sources of energy is 29.8% (432.9 PJ). Efforts to increase the bioenergy production are in stark contrast to European policies to prevent an icrease of the direct energetic use of primary forest biomass. Austria has a highly efficient timber processing sector and is globally the second largest importer of timber. After a cascade of timber utilization for sawnwood, particle boards and pulp & paper about 50% of the resource is used for energy production. It partially supplies energy for timber processing, and is partially used in biomass power plants. Primary wood that goes directly from the forest into energy production comprises assortments and tree parts that presently cannot be turned into wood products. Yet, particularly in rural areas small-holder foresters extract timber for their regional energy needs. The growing demand for pellets cannot be fully met from the residues of timber processing and relies partially on imported pellets. A further increase of the provision of energy is possible, if (i) the market demands more wood products, and/or (ii) the harvesting rate is increased. Simulations have shown that Austrian forests can sustain several decades of increased harvesting rates, merely because the harvesting rate has been lower than the annual growth, as shown by rising biomass stocks since at least 60 years. Many forests are overdue for thinning because the operational  costs are not covered. Sustainability issues are raised. A slight increase in the production of bioenergy is feasible. Strong increases would deplete resources within only a few decades, and potentially lead to undesired side effects such as nutrient depletion.

How to cite: Jandl, R. and Schindlbacher, A.: Constraints on the provision of bio-energy from forest biomass in Austria, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1471, 2023.

X4.135
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EGU23-10368
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
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Markus Schlott, Omar El Sayed, Mariia Bilousova, Chen Li, Filippo Guidi, Alexander Kies, and Horst Stöcker

Climate change is going to alter the appearance of planet Earth throughout the century and beyond unprecedentedly. Therefore the United Nations (UN) decided to classify climate action as the 13th Sustainable Development Goal (SDG); right after the fight against poverty, hunger and other emphases. With the Paris Agreement from 2015, the world community finally got through to tackle this crisis in an ambitious step forward, aiming at a global warming rate of well below 2°C. However, it is by far not clear, how this task can be achieved in an economically sensible way; especially with regard to the first twelve SGDs, and, in addition to this, an ever increasing world population with around eleven billion human beings at the end of the century. This dilemma makes clear: future action against climate change must also develop solutions to the social questions from nowadays. But even more: it must be thought in a broader context, regarding energy security, population dynamics, economic transformation processes, as well as the general standard of living.

The presented work is the first part of a study that addresses these questions for Europe by cost-optimizing a sector-coupled network model of its energy system (PyPSA-Eur-Sec), done under two main aspects: first, the impact of climate change on the energy related infrastructure, and second, the role of socio-economic uncertainties in form of boundary conditions. The first is achieved by invoking all energy relevant meteorological weather data variables from the EURO-CORDEX climate projections. The second is based on social and economic projections such as the World Population Prospects from the UN Population Division.

The results from part one are given by an energy-meteorological analysis of the full EURO-CORDEX ensemble, covering three distinct greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analysis investigates the power output from wind turbines (sfcWind, rlst), solar panels (hurs, rsds, rsus, tas), and hydro plants (mrro, orog); each time for the EUR-11 domain and at the end of the century in form of a last-year approach. The resulting fields are evaluated in two ways: in comparison to each other, quantifying the uncertainties among the different climate models, and in comparison to today’s climate status quo with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis, quantifying any impact of climate change on the variables and their related power potentials.

How to cite: Schlott, M., El Sayed, O., Bilousova, M., Li, C., Guidi, F., Kies, A., and Stöcker, H.: Humankind, Energy and the Climate - A EURO-CORDEX Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10368, 2023.

X4.136
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EGU23-15481
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
Ignasi Herms, Paula Canteli, Elsa Ramalho, Georgina Arnó, Jesús Garcia-Crespo, Joao Carvalho, Montse Colomer, Celestino Garcia de la Noceda, Rita Caldeira, Ignacio Marzán, Cristina de Santiago, Gregor Glotzl, Vit Hladik, Annamaria Nador, Cornelia Steiner, Petr Jirman, and Maayke Koevoets

Through a five-year Coordination and Support Action, the new #GSEU (Geological Service for Europe) project, EuroGeoSurveys, and 48 partner organizations from 36 European countries (including both national and regional Geological Survey Organisations - GSO, and associated partners) will deliver a plan for a sustainable Geological Service for Europe to be implemented beyond the 2027 project end. The project will directly support the vision of European Green Deal, focusing on our Earth and what lies within its subsurface, i.e. water, energy, raw materials, and all areas that require subsurface data and expertise. The GSEU’s key objective is to develop and make permanently available pan-European geological data on the already existing European Geological Data Infrastructure (EGDI) and related information services for the sustainable and safe use of our subsurface and its resources. The project is structured in 9 Working Packages (WP). Its ‘WP3 Geothermal energy & underground storage inventory’ will deliver the named online GIS ‘Pan-European Atlas for Sustainable Geo-Energy Capacities (SGEC)’, a future harmonized and generalized distribution of maps and databases of already known assessed capacity and resource potential, mainly from previous European projects, and supported with additional national and regional information from GSOs, including standardized qualitative and quantitative attributes. This will consider information on geothermal energy resources and subsurface storage capacities for sustainable energy carriers (hydrogen, heat and cold) and sequestration of CO2. This contribution will present the main objectives, methods and expected results with the publication of the future atlas.

How to cite: Herms, I., Canteli, P., Ramalho, E., Arnó, G., Garcia-Crespo, J., Carvalho, J., Colomer, M., Garcia de la Noceda, C., Caldeira, R., Marzán, I., de Santiago, C., Glotzl, G., Hladik, V., Nador, A., Steiner, C., Jirman, P., and Koevoets, M.: The future Pan-European Atlas for Sustainable Geo-Energy Capacities. The #GSEU project., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15481, 2023.

Posters virtual: Tue, 25 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | vHall ERE

Chairpersons: Wilfried Winiwarter, Viktor J. Bruckman
vERE.4
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EGU23-1393
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
Amarachi Kalu

The regional energy transition requires a growing share of alternative technologies powered by biomass sources,
for which not all their environmental impacts have been fully understood yet. The UN and the sustainable
development goal (SDG’s) seven encourage a cleaner, safer and modern energy production for all to uphold
environmental and climatic protection. This case study aims to apply the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) modeling
tool such as the openLCA in assessing wholly (from up to downstream) the environmental, socio-economic and
engineering perspectives of energy transitions.
The Purpose is to analyze the environmental impacts of maize silage production for biogas production in support
of clean and affordable energy. This means, analyzing the supply chain activities from upstream to the downstream
to obtain the impacts on ecosystem and its services. The objectives of this research are to (a) explore different
bioenergy emission and climate change related problems while finding the tradeoffs across various impacts when
maize silage is used as feedstock. (b) To discover current natural gas production technology pathways in Alberta,
the oil exploration province of Canada and compare them with biogas production impacts

The Method applied is the Eco-indicator 99, E, E method, used in analyzing life cycle impact assessment worst-
case scenario of products or services, while comparing the effects with the TRACI & ReCipe methods across board. It provides robust quantitative estimates of GHG emissions, eutrophication, climate impacts, health and land-use impacts of maize silage production for biogas on a regional scale.
From the study’s scientific findings, relevant information on the interconnectedness of bioenergy environmental
impact is generated, which are also useful/applicable for Canada and globally. The result found that the use of high
nitrogen fertilizer (above 120 kg/h) contributes to high eutrophication potentials and drying of the maize silage
has high climate change potentials which proves that biogas production from maize silage is not completely clean
but can be improved
In conclusion. It concludes that biogas systems can decarbonize regional fossil energy grids, drying of the silage
be carried out in summer with biogas and natural gas mix, and supports the moderate use of farm chemicals to
create a balance between bioenergy development and environmental prosperity. the project is significant because
it comprehensively states the need for reduction of excessive emission of greenhouse
gases, land conversion, and nutrient delivery through biogas production and other energy transition activities that
have the potential to increase global warming, damage water and land resources in Alberta which is scarcely available.

KEYWORDS: Energy transition, Environmental impacts, Life cycle impact assessment, Openlca Eco indicator
99, biogas production, Sustainable Environmental.

How to cite: Kalu, A.: Investigating the environmental implications of biogas production pathways using life cycle impact assessment model to support regional energy transitions, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1393, 2023.

vERE.5
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EGU23-10783
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
Is there enough land in India for scaling up the production of energy crops for sustainable bioenergy? A theoretical analysis
(withdrawn)
Amit Kushwaha and Deepak Jaiswal
vERE.6
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EGU23-4527
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ITS3.2/ERE2.8
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ECS
Does Digital Transition Contribute to Green Transition or Over-consumption? An Empirical Study in the UK
(withdrawn)
Genghao Zhang
vERE.7
|
EGU23-17148
|
ITS3.2/ERE2.8
Dr Ashish Sharma, Satya Narayan Singh, and Vladimir Strezov

The rapid urbanization and urban energy transformation worldwide have surpassed the urban global tipping point and poses serious challenges to the current energy systems and infrastructures in global mega cities. The cities consume about 75% of worldwide energy production and produce 80% of CO2 emissions. It is estimated that nearly 68% of the world’s population will be living in urban areas by 2050 as well as 2.5 billion people will be added to the world’s urban population (UN Department of Economic Social Affairs, 2018). The exponentially increasing urbanization poses environmental threats. This calls for research and development of technologies, sustainability assessment tools and public policy instruments with a strong focus on the energy transformation in mega cities. The knowledge base compiled from such an analysis will help in fast-tracking the transition towards equitable, sustainable, and livable cities. This requires a thorough analysis via life-cycle approach for the structure and the feedback of the cities to the implementation of the sustainable energy transformation pathways. To fill these gaps, the overarching goal of this proposed study is to assess the sustainability (i.e., environmental, economic and social) impacts and air quality benefits of urban energy transformation in future smart cities. This will be accomplished via a systematic review of existing literature for following key objectives, (i) To assess the impact of energy efficiency measures in smart cities planning as well as increasing uptake of renewable energy sources and diversification; (ii) To conduct the sustainability assessment and quantify the environmental benefits (i.e., air pollution reduction) of four specific interventions in smart city transport planning including, electrification, automation, vehicle sharing schemes and micro mobility options. The analysis will follow a life cycle thinking approach ; (iii) To examine the structure and the sensitivities of the cities in response to the sustainable energy transformation via modes such as alternative energy use, deployment of green infrastructure and distribution of decentralized energy systems (e.g., Solar photovoltaic technology and battery technology);  (iv) Further, the necessity and effectiveness of the legislative policies for energy transformation in smart cities planning and governance will be evaluated. This proposed study will provide benchmarks to broaden our knowledge and decision-making capabilities to quantify the energy and resource efficiencies of sustainable energy transformation pathways. It will indirectly contribute towards fulfilling and realizing the Sustainability Developments Goals (SDG’s) put forward by the UN. The findings of this study will be helpful for the city planners, local councils as well as the policy makers for a sustainable urban energy transformation for smart cities planning and implementation. This will help to broaden knowledge of different stakeholders for informed decision-making towards energy options with minimal sustainability impacts and greater energy/resource efficacies.

How to cite: Sharma, D. A., Singh, S. N., and Strezov, V.: Sustainability impact assessment of urban energy transformation in smart cities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17148, 2023.