EGU23-14347, updated on 01 Dec 2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14347
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Potential Impact of climate Change on Cropland Suitability in Africa using CMIP6 Models

Temitope Samuel Egbebiyi1,2, Christopher Lennard1, Pinto Izidine1,3, Phillip Mukwenha1, Piotr Wiolski1, Kwesi Akumenyi Quagraine1,4, and Jumoke Esther Ogunniyi5
Temitope Samuel Egbebiyi et al.
  • 1University of Cape Town, South Africa, Climate System Analysis Group, Environmental and Geographical Science, Cape Town, South Africa (temitope.egbebiyi@uct.ac.za)
  • 2African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
  • 3KNMI - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Netherlands
  • 4Department of Physics, University of Cape Coast, Ghana
  • 5Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Soil Science, University of Abuja, Nigeria

Future changes in the climate are projected to significantly affect the agricultural sector, notably agricultural production which include cropland suitability. The present study examines the impact of climate change on crop suitability and planting season in Africa under the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Using the multi-model ensemble climate simulation datasets from the CMIP6 simulations under different SSPs (ssp126, 245, 370 & 585) for the historical (1980-2009), near future (2035-2064) and end of century (2070-2099) study periods. Ecocrop, a crop suitability model was used to investigate the impact of climate change at different SSPs on the suitability and planting season of three crop types, cereals (maize), legumes (Cowpea) and root and tuber (Cassava) over Africa owing to their economic importance to the region. Our findings show all three crops are mainly suitable over most part of Africa with suitability index above 0.5 except south of 20oS in southern Africa and in the Sahel zone (north of 14oN) over the historical period. In general, the impact of climate change leads to about 4% and 7% increase in suitable cropland for Maize and Cowpea respectively relative to the historical period while about 4% suitability decrease is projected for Cassava across the four SSPs. Also, a projected decrease about 1-2% in unsuitable area is projected for the three crops both for near future and end of century relative to the historical period. In addition, no change in planting season is expected across the four SSPs except for a projected 1-2month early planting season for Cassava over West and Central Africa in the near future and end of century and 2-month delay in the planting season for cassava over Congo DR by the end of century under carbon emission with no adaptation (ssp585). The study will assist to improve our understanding on the impact climate change under different SSPs on agricultural production in Africa. It will also help inform policy maker in their decision making of adaptation strategies to ensure food security and zero hunger in sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords : Cropland suitability, Ecocrop, Africa, climate chnage, planting season, CMIP6

 

 

How to cite: Egbebiyi, T. S., Lennard, C., Izidine, P., Mukwenha, P., Wiolski, P., Quagraine, K. A., and Ogunniyi, J. E.: Potential Impact of climate Change on Cropland Suitability in Africa using CMIP6 Models, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14347, 2023.