EGU23-14556, updated on 08 Apr 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14556
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

A new Max Planck Institute-Grand Ensemble with CMIP6 forcing and high-frequency model output

Dirk Olonscheck1, Sebastian Brune2, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez1,6,7, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga2, Johanna Baehr2, Friederike Fröb3, Lara Hellmich1, Tatiana Ilyina1, Christopher Kadow4, Daniel Krieger5, Hongmei Li1, Jochem Marotzke1, Étienne Plésiat4, Martin Schupfner4, Fabian Wachsmann4, Karl-Hermann Wieners1, and Sebastian Milinski8
Dirk Olonscheck et al.
  • 1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Ocean in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany
  • 2Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
  • 3Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
  • 4German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), Hamburg, Germany
  • 5Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
  • 6Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 7Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, Paris, France
  • 8European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Bonn, Germany

We present the CMIP6 version of the Max Planck Institute-Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE CMIP6) with 30 realisations for the historical period and five emission scenarios. The power of MPI-GE CMIP6 goes beyond its predecessor ensemble MPI-GE by providing high-frequency model output, the full range of emission scenarios including the highly policy relevant scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, and the opportunity to compare the ensemble to high resolution simulations of the same model version. We demonstrate with six novel application examples how to use the power of MPI-GE CMIP6 to better quantify and understand present and future extreme events in the Earth system, to inform about uncertainty in approaching Paris Agreement global warming limits, and to combine large ensembles and artificial intelligence. For instance, MPI-GE CMIP6 allows us to show that the recently observed Siberian and Pacific North American heat waves are projected to occur every year in 2071-2100 in high-emission scenarios, that the storm activity in most tropical to mid-latitude oceans is projected to decrease, and that the ensemble is sufficiently large to be used for infilling surface temperature observations with artificial intelligence.

How to cite: Olonscheck, D., Brune, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Baehr, J., Fröb, F., Hellmich, L., Ilyina, T., Kadow, C., Krieger, D., Li, H., Marotzke, J., Plésiat, É., Schupfner, M., Wachsmann, F., Wieners, K.-H., and Milinski, S.: A new Max Planck Institute-Grand Ensemble with CMIP6 forcing and high-frequency model output, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14556, 2023.