OpenCLIM: A national scale framework for evaluating the effects of climate change for socio-economic scenarios and adaptation policies

Evaluating the impacts of climate change, be that on health, critical infrastructure, biodiversity, agriculture, economic impacts or any other sectors, requires a multi-sector, multi-scenario analysis.  Such analysis is only possible though integrated impact assessment models within a framework architecture that can handle the associated complexities of generating harmonized results from a heterogenous set of models and drivers. Addressing these challenges, the OpenCLIM framework has been developed to collate existing models from across sectors to form an open, extensible framework, which explores the impacts of climate change in a consistent, -scenario and -scale approach, using Great Britain as a case study. 

Domain-based, siloed approaches are no longer suitable for assessing climate change impacts and integrated assessment platforms where compound cross-sector risks can be assessed are now integral and expected. To this end, the OpenCLIM project has developed a novel, open framework, enabling the hosting of models for assessing climate hazard risks and potential impacts. The nature of the framework enables the coupling of disparate models to explore challenges considering trade-offs between possible interventions, such as the change in risk from increased temperatures when flood management infrastructure policy is applied to reduce flood risk, or the density of new buildings is changed. 

Implemented on the DAFNI (Data and Analytics Facility for National Infrastructure) platform, the framework uses the concepts of workflows in which models can be coupled and run with data and parameterisation passed between models while datasets are available within a shared data archive. A set of tools, or adaptors, to support coupling enable the ease of use and integration of new models into existing workflows, new workflows, or coupling of existing workflows. This flexible framework creates a powerful integrated impact assessment model, and when coupled with accessible data resources, such as climate scenarios and socio-economic datasets, offers a platform for assessing the impacts of climate change across domains. 

An example of the OpenCLIM platform is the assessment of the impact of flooding using the City Catchment Analysis Tool (CityCAT). Climate projections suggest a global increase in extreme rainfall events and the subsequent impact of flooding. Considering socio-economic changes to the urban environment, the OpenCLIM workflows couple future narratives for the urban landscape with flooding events of varying durations and intensities. Cost damage curves are then applied to assess the indicative economic cost of damages, facilitating comparisons between population density changes, climate extremes and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies/adaptation options. 

The OpenCLIM framework exemplifies an open, extendable, flexible integrated assessment model for climate impacts enabling cross-sector and compound risks to be assessed from human, nature, and economic aspects.  The concepts and tools explored and resolved within the framework, although initially with a GB focus, are applicable beyond these bounds where models and data exist.