Drivers of global carbon emissions 1990-2014

The identification of the drivers of carbon emissions is fundamental for carbon reductions at the national level. In this study, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is applied to 112 countries in the world from 1990 to 2014. Carbon dioxide emissions are decomposed into six driving factors: population, fuel mix, energy intensity, production structure, consumption patterns, and consumption volume. Then, the contributions of five final consumers and the six driving factors to the total carbon dioxide emissions are quantified. Based on the CO₂ emissions intensity and the CO₂ emissions growth rates, 112 countries are classified into 4 groups and the effects of all driving factors vary significantly among groups. Energy intensity is the most significant factor that negatively influences the total carbon emission in all groups. Fuel mix and production structure show potential positive effects on reducing carbon emissions in Group 2 (e.g. the USA, Greece, Italy) and Group 3 (e.g. Germany, the UK, Sweden), but they increase the carbon emissions in Group 1 (e.g. China) and Group 4 (e.g. Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan). Consumption volume results in a dramatic increase in the carbon emissions in all groups, which implies that the increasing purchasing power of households and government is the most notable obstacle to carbon dioxide mitigation. Population growth accelerates the carbon emissions in developing countries in Group 4. Thus, the race between household consumption volume growth and energy intensity reduction is vital for carbon emission mitigation in Group 4.