The globally booming renewable power industry has stimulated an unprecedented interest in metals as key infrastructure components. Many economies with different endowments and levels of technology participate in various production stages and cultivate value in global renewable power industry production networks, known as global renewable power value chains (RPVCs), complicating the identification of metal supply for the subsequent low-carbon power generation. Here, we use a value chain decomposition model to trace the metal footprints (MFs) and value-added of major global economies’ renewable power sectors. We found that the MFs of the global renewable power sector increased by 47% during 2005—2015. Developed economies occupy the high-end segments of RPVCs while allocating metal-intensive (but low value-added) production activities to less developed economies. The fast-growing demand for renewable power in developed economies is a major contributor to the embodied metal transfer increment within RPVCs, which is partly offset by the declining metal intensities in less developed economies. Therefore, it is urgent to establish a metal-efficient and green supply chain for upstream suppliers as well as downstream renewable power installers for transition in the power sector across the globe.

How to cite: Fu, R., Peng, K., Wang, P., Zhong, H., Liu, X., Feng, K., and Li, J.: Tracing metal footprints through global renewable power value chains, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4023, 2023.

Hydropower is the largest renewable source of electricity generation. However, the construction and operation of hydropower plants may cause significant material footprints. This study provides a systems accounting framework for evaluating the life-cycle material footprint of a hydropower plant. It is based on the hybrid method as a combination of the process analysis and the input-output analysis. A case study for a typical pumped storage hydropower plant (NPSHP) is carried out to demonstrate the framework. 12 metals (bauxite and aluminum ores, copper ores, gold ores, iron ores, lead ores, nickel ores, PGM ores, silver ores, tin ores, uranium and thorium ores, zinc ores, and other non-ferrous metal ores) and 8 minerals (building stones, chemical and fertilizer minerals, clays and kaolin, gravel and sand, limestone & gypsum & chalk & dolomite, salt, slate, and other minerals) are included.  The results can be helpful to promote a sustainable energy transition by incorporating material planetary boundaries into renewable energy systems.

How to cite: Shao, L., Pan, Y., Chu, Y., and Wu, Z.: Material footprint assessment of hydropower plants, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4171, 2023.

China’s supply of terbium and other heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) are critical to global sustainable transition. However, their supply chain and corresponding bottlenecks remain unclear. Here we present the first deep-dive analysis of China’s terbium supply chain and trade flows from 1990 to 2018, as well as its future potential trends through 2040. We identify a growing terbium shortage along with its fast-increasing demand to meet various sustainable applications, particularly for electric vehicles (EVs) and wind power (nearly half in 2018). In sharp contrast to previous views, we uncover that the lack of available green mining technology under rigorous environmental regulations, rather than China’s production quota, is currently the main constraint of terbium supply, given only 25% of its quota was exhausted in 2018. Moreover, this supply gap is expected to increase six-fold over the next 20 years to meet China’s EVs and wind power ambitions. Our further analysis reveals the present widely-advocated approaches (including material substitution, reduction, and recycling), will alleviate only around 56% of such shortages, which urges radical green mining breakthroughs to overcome environmental constraints in both China and other HREEs supply countries.

How to cite: Chen, W., Wang, P., and Chen, W.-Q.: Growing Terbium Shortage Urges Radical Green Mining of Heavy Rare Earths, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4592, 2023.

How to cite: Zhang, P., Feng, K., Yan, L., Guo, Y., Gao, B., and Li1, J.: The carbon cost of mitigating air pollutant emissions from coal-fired power plants in China, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3817, 2023.

How to cite: Feng, T.: Induction mechanism and optimization of tradable green certificates and carbon emission trading acting on electricity market in China, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1993, 2023.

The biggest increase in carbon emissions took place in the power sector, accounting for more than 40% of global carbon emissions. Identifying critical sectors of carbon emissions in the upstream power sector and mapping out emission reduction pathways are core components of achieving supply chain-wide carbon reductions in China. However, the path to achieving supply chain-wide carbon reductions in China from the provincial perspective is still unclear. This study quantifies the embodied carbon emissions of different power generation technologies by region using a multi-regional input-output-based hybrid approach. The critical upstream sectors that indirectly drive or transport large amounts of carbon emissions through supply chains are identified using both consumption-based and betweenness-based methods. The changes in supply chain-wide carbon emissions of the power sector by region under different emission reduction policy scenarios are also examined. The results indicate that the solar power sector brings the highest carbon reduction benefits, with an average carbon intensity of 1.25 t/10000 yuan. Significant differences in embodied carbon intensity across provinces for the same type of power generation sector are observed, and there is a mismatch between current installation and carbon reduction targets in the coal-fired and wind power sectors. Critical sectors of carbon emissions in the upstream power sector are concentrated in the energy sector and energy-intensive sectors, while the electrical machinery and equipment sector is also key to alleviating environmental pressures as an important upstream carbon transmission sector. Besides, the implementation of the "Replacing Small Generation Units with Large Ones" policy at the provincial level, especially in northwest China, and “further enhancing the supply capacity of clean energy” can effectively promote the emission reduction of the whole supply chain in the power sector. The results presented in this paper may provide a reference for the provincial government to rationally plan future low-carbon transformation paths of the power sector.

How to cite: Yang, J. and Tang, L.: Carbon footprint scenarios for electricity mix in China, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5194, 2023.

The identification of the drivers of carbon emissions is fundamental for carbon reductions at the national level. In this study, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is applied to 112 countries in the world from 1990 to 2014. Carbon dioxide emissions are decomposed into six driving factors: population, fuel mix, energy intensity, production structure, consumption patterns, and consumption volume. Then, the contributions of five final consumers and the six driving factors to the total carbon dioxide emissions are quantified. Based on the CO₂ emissions intensity and the CO₂ emissions growth rates, 112 countries are classified into 4 groups and the effects of all driving factors vary significantly among groups. Energy intensity is the most significant factor that negatively influences the total carbon emission in all groups. Fuel mix and production structure show potential positive effects on reducing carbon emissions in Group 2 (e.g. the USA, Greece, Italy) and Group 3 (e.g. Germany, the UK, Sweden), but they increase the carbon emissions in Group 1 (e.g. China) and Group 4 (e.g. Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan). Consumption volume results in a dramatic increase in the carbon emissions in all groups, which implies that the increasing purchasing power of households and government is the most notable obstacle to carbon dioxide mitigation. Population growth accelerates the carbon emissions in developing countries in Group 4. Thus, the race between household consumption volume growth and energy intensity reduction is vital for carbon emission mitigation in Group 4.

How to cite: Duan, C.: Drivers of global carbon emissions 1990-2014, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16498, 2023.

Low-carbon power transition, key to combatting climate change, brings far-reaching effects on achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in terms of resources use, environmental emissions, employment, and many more. Here we assess the potential impacts of power transition on multiple SDGs progress across 49 economies under six socio-economic-climate scenarios. We find that the low carbon power transition under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenarios could lead to approximately 10% improvement in global SDG index score from 65.30 in 2015 to 71.62-71.64 in 2050. However, the improvement would be significantly decreased to 1.91%-4.98% and 3.42%-5.24% under RCP6.0 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Power transition could improve the overall SDG index in most developed economies under all scenarios while undermine their resources-related SDG scores. The power transition induced changes in international trade would improve developed economies’ SDG progress, but jeopardize that of developing economies which usually serve as resource hubs to meet the demand for low carbon power transition in developed economies. 

How to cite: Peng, K.: Low carbon transition of global power sector may enhance sustainable development goals, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4310, 2023.

China is the world’s largest cement producer and consumer, contributing 58% of the world’s total cement production in 2020. The cement industry in China is associated with 4–5% of China’s total energy production and contributes 10–15% of national total CO₂ emissions, ranking second only to the power industry, and also significant air pollutant discharges such as SO₂, NO_x and particulate matter (PM). Since China’s energy and environmental policies for the cement industry usually focus on specific energy/environment effects and a single manufacturing process, this study described the cradle-to-gate lifecycle covariation relationship of these effects and analyzed the potential transgression magnitude to related planetary boundaries to assist in designing low carbon and pollution industrial transition in Chinese cement industry. The multi-regional decomposition analysis model, the LMDI decomposition, and the SDA method were employed to identify the driving factors such as energy intensity, manufacturing technology, economic structure, intermediate demand and structure, and total demand. We found that the Chinese cement industry not only causes massive emissions directly but also imposes environmental burdens on other sectors through up- and downstream supply chains, especially in eastern and central regions. Scope 1 and 2 emissions decreased sharply for CO₂, SO₂, and PM thanks to stricter environmental regulations, but Scope 3 emissions of CO₂ increased by approximately 30%, contributed by energy intensity and economic structural change. Although total emissions basically presented decline trends, several national and regional planetary boundaries might be transgressed under downscaling principles based on population, and gross value added. This work improves our understanding of lifecycle carbon emissions and pollution and related total environmental burden in terms of planetary boundaries, thus offering references for the implementation of energy conservation and environment policies in the Chinese cement industry.

How to cite: Cai, X., Zheng, C., Meng, J., and Wang, X.: Life-cycle CO2 and Air Pollutant Emission Assessment of China’s Cement Industry under Planetary Boundaries, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8314, 2023.

Energy system analysis has been widely used to imply technologically and economically plausible energy-system transition pathways for national net-zero emissions targets. Undermining the feasibility of such energy system analysis results are the highly-resolved mapping, sector-by-sector, of the timing and spatial distribution of changes in energy infrastructure, capital investment, employment, air pollution, land use, and other key outcomes at local level. A successful net-zero transition must be accomplished with supplementary supply of factors of production (e.g., human capital, natural capital, investment etc.) to enable such low-carbon transition. Using Princeton’s net-zero America study as example, we find that each net-zero pathway results in a net increase in energy-sector employment and delivers significant reductions in air pollution, leading to public health benefits that begin immediately in the first decade of the transition. We also conclude that each transition pathway features historically unprecedented rates of deployment of multiple technologies. Impacts on landscapes, incumbent industries and communities are significant and planning will need to be sensitive to regional changes in employment and local impacts on communities.

How to cite: Zhang, C.: Linking energy system analysis with factors of production analysis: A US case study, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3084, 2023.