Predicting Outer Van Allen Belt Dynamics with the Prototype SafeSpace Service

The European SafeSpace project has implemented a synergistical approach to improve space weather forecasting capabilities from the current lead times of a few hours to 2-4 days. We have combined the solar wind acceleration model MULTI-VP with the heliospheric propagation models Helio1D and EUHFORIA to compute the evolution of the solar wind from the surface of the Sun to the Earth orbit. The forecasted solar wind conditions are then fed into the ONERA Geoffectiveness Neural Network, to forecast the level of geomagnetic activity with the Kp index as the chosen proxy. The Kp index is used as the input parameter for the IASB plasmasphere model and for the Salammbô radiation belts code. The plasma density is used to estimate VLF wave amplitude and then VLF diffusion coefficients, while the predicted solar wind parameters are used to estimate the ULF diffusion coefficients through the NKUA EMERALD model. Plasmaspheric density and VLF/ULF diffusion coefficients are used by the Salammbô radiation belts code to deliver a detailed flux map of energetic electrons. Finally, particle radiation indicators are also provided as a prototype space weather service of use to spacecraft operators and space industry, accessible at http://www.safespace-service.eu. The performance of the prototype service has been evaluated in collaboration with space industry stakeholders. The work leading to this paper has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870437 for the SafeSpace (Radiation Belt Environmental Indicators for the Safety of Space Assets) project.