Connecting COVID-19 and climate change in the anthropocene: evidence from urban vulnerability in São Paulo

Global crises such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic do not affect cities uniformly. These crises converge in urban areas and often interact through their primary and secondary impacts with the vulnerability of urban populations. This paper investigates urban development dynamics and socio-environmental vulnerability in a megalopolis in the Global South, São Paulo (Brasil). Our goal is to assess the connections between urbanisation and risk exposure, a gap in vulnerability research when considering climate and health hazards. We implement an innovative mixed methods research design using thematic, hot spots, and survival analysis techniques. Two focus groups at the central and peripheral regions of the city provide qualitative data, while open data sets and COVID-19 case microdata (n= 1,948,601) support the quantitative methods. We find a complex system of relationships between urbanisation and risk exposure. Socioeconomic vulnerability characteristics of the population do not explain exposure entirely but significantly contribute to risk-prone location choices. Additionally, social vulnerability factors such as low income and social segregation are highly concentrated in São Paulo, coinciding with substantial COVID-19 fatality rates during 25 months of the pandemic. Finally, qualitative analysis helps us overcome the limitations of quantitative methods on the intraurban scale, indicating contrasting experiences of resilience and resistance during the health crisis. While the low-income group faced mental health and food security issues, the upper-middle-income sample took advantage of opportunities arising during the pandemic to improve work and well-being. We argue that these results demonstrate potential synergies for climate adaptation and health policies in combating socio-environmental vulnerability at the community scale. Environmental justice is thus paramount for global development agendas such as the Sustainable Development Goals, Sendai Framework, and the Paris Agreement.