Geodetically and seismically informed rapid 3D dynamic rupture modeling of the Mw7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake

The destruction unfolding after the February 6, 2023 Turkey-Syria Earthquake sequence is devastating. First observations reveal complex earthquake dynamics challenging data-driven efforts. We present rapid, data-informed and physics-based 3D dynamic rupture simulations of the puzzling Mw7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake providing a first-order mechanical explanation of this earthquake’s complexity and its implications for the Mw7.5 doublet event.

By incorporating detailed fault geometries constrained by satellite geodetic observations into 3D dynamic rupture simulations, we show how dynamic interactions between fault geometric complexity and the heterogeneous regional stress field generated the unique and unexpected rupture behaviors observed, including localized supershear, backwards rupture branching, and locally strong shaking.

Our supercomputing empowered simulations that tightly link earthquake physics with interdisciplinary observations can provide a direct understanding of the fault system mechanics, reconcile competing interpretations and serve as a constraint to understand the short- and long-term Eastern Anatolian Fault system interaction.