SM1.6 | The destructive earthquake sequence of February 06, 2023, in south-central Türkiye



On February 6, 2023, two powerful earthquakes of magnitude 7.8 and 7.7 rocked south-central Türkiye and northern Syria, strongly affecting the regions around Gaziantep, Kahramanmaraş, Malatya, and Hatay. The epicenter of the first mainshock (37.288 N, 37.043 E, 8.6 km depth, origin time 01:17 AM UTC) is located close to the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). The second large earthquake (38.089°N, 37.239°E, 7.0 km depth, origin time 10:24 AM UTC) occurred only 9 hrs later, about 90 km north of the first mainshock on the east-west trending Sürgü Fault, at a time when the local population had already begun to rescue survivors and their belongings. The aftershock sequences delineate fault lengths of ~360 km and ~180 km for the M 7.8 and M 7.7 ruptures, respectively, rendering these earthquakes among the longest continental strike-slip earthquakes ever recorded. A basin-wide tsunami alert was issued by the NEAMTWS Tsunami Service Providers, and a small tsunami was generated which was measured in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

This session solicits contributions from all disciplines of Earth sciences, engineering, social sciences, disaster management, and policy making to glean a first-order interdisciplinary understanding of the causes and consequences of this devastating double earthquake event. We invite presentations that address the tectonic context of the EAF and large historical earthquakes in the region, measurements and inferences from earthquake geology and space imagery, studies on the coseismic rupture process of the two events and their physical connection, assessment of ground-shaking levels and strong-motion properties, site effects, damage and risk assessment, as well as tsunami forecasting and warning, and the societal implications of these devastating earthquakes.

1. The Abstract Processing Charge (APC) for Turkish/Syrian scientists will be waived.
2. A regular APC rate of 50EUR will apply for all other scientists who are to submit an abstract for this late-breaking session.
3. The deadline for submitting an abstract to this session is 19.02.2023.
4. Please contact Philippe Jousset,, if it happens you already have submitted an abstract and yet want to submit an additional abstract to this session.

Co-organized by NH0
Convener: P. Martin Mai | Co-conveners: Y. Klinger, Stefano Lorito, Sezim Ezgi Guvercin, ‪Alice-Agnes Gabriel, A. Ozgun Konca, Jorge Jara
| Fri, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
Room E1
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
Hall X2
Orals |
Fri, 14:00
Thu, 14:00

Orals: Fri, 28 Apr | Room E1

The oral presentations are given in a hybrid format supported by a Zoom meeting featuring on-site and virtual presentations. The button to access the Zoom meeting appears just before the time block starts.
Chairpersons: P. Martin Mai, A. Ozgun Konca, ‪Alice-Agnes Gabriel
Gesa Petersen, Pinar Büyükakpinar, Felipe Vera, Malte Metz, Joachim Saul, Simone Cesca, Torsten Dahm, and Frederik Tilmann

On February 6, 2023, southeastern Turkey was hit by two of the most devastating earthquakes in the instrumental period of the country, with Mw 7.7-7.8 and Mw 7.6, respectively. Both earthquakes caused massive damage and in total tens of thousands of casualties in Turkey and Syria. In this study, we analyze the rupture processes of main- and aftershocks by combining different seismic source characterization techniques using teleseismic, regional and local data. We perform finite source inversion and back projection-based analyses for the two main shocks and invert for probabilistic centroid moment tensor solutions of both main and aftershocks (M≥4). The first earthquake was bilateral and ruptured a seismic gap along the East Anatolian Fault Zone, with rupture first propagating to the north-east for ~200 km, and in a latter phase propagating to the SSW, probably coming to a halt only on a branch extending into the Mediterranean Sea. The total length of the rupture likely exceeds 500 km. The second event ruptured the EW oriented Sürgü-Misis Fault Zone to the NW of the first event. It shows a highly concentrated rupture near the epicenter, Rupture directivity analyses for M≥5.3 earthquakes provide additional insights into dynamic source aspects. Preliminary moment tensor solutions of numerous aftershocks indicate a remarkable variability of rupturing mechanisms, suggesting stress changes and the activation of multiple faults in the vicinity of the main ruptures. With our work, we aim to shed light onto multiple aspects of the complex rupture evolution and hope to provide new insights towards a better understanding of the devastating 2023 Türkiye earthquake sequence.

How to cite: Petersen, G., Büyükakpinar, P., Vera, F., Metz, M., Saul, J., Cesca, S., Dahm, T., and Tilmann, F.: Rupture processes of the 2023 Türkiye earthquake sequence: Main- and aftershocks, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17609,, 2023.

Emrecan Adanır and Gülüm Tanırcan

One of the most damaging earthquake effects occurring in the vicinity of the fault trace is fling step, also known as permanent displacement. However, due to the fact that the standard filtering techniques eliminate the low frequency portions of the motion, the permanent displacements are not seen on the displacement time histories derived from the accelerogram records. Thus, fling step is neglected in many engineering practices. To reveal the permanent displacements, special data processing schemes based on removal of the baseline shifts in separated time windows were proposed. In this study, the most recently proposed data processing scheme eBASCO (Schiappapietra et al., 2021) is improved and the effectiveness of the new scheme is tested by comparing the obtained displacements on the processed records with those derived from nearby GPS data for 25 records from worldwide earthquakes.

 Preliminary site screening efforts and geodetic observations demonstrated that the earthquake sequence of February 6, 2023 in Turkey caused remarkable permanent displacements, which might be one of the reasons for severe damage and collapse of the structures, especially those which have long fundamental periods such as pipelines, roadways and high-rise buildings. In this study, near fault records of the earthquake sequence are processed with the proposed scheme and the obtained permanent displacements are evaluated with those predicted by existing models.

How to cite: Adanır, E. and Tanırcan, G.: Permanent Displacement Distribution From Strong Ground Motion Records of the 2023 Mw7.7 Earthquake., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17600,, 2023.

Ahmed Elbanna, Mohamed Abdelmeguid, and Ares Rosakis

The Mw7.8 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake was larger and more destructive than what had been expected for the tectonic setting in Southeastern Turkey. By using near-field records we provide evidence for early supershear transition on the splay fault that hosted the nucleation and early propagation of the first rupture that eventually transitioned into the East Anatolian fault. The two stations located furthest from the epicenter show a larger fault parallel particle velocity component relative to the fault normal particle velocity component; a unique signature of supershear ruptures that has been identified in theoretical and experimental models of intersonic rupture growth. The third station located closest to the epicenter, while mostly preserving the classical sub-Rayleigh characteristics, it also features a small supershear pulse clearly propagating ahead of the original sub-Rayleigh rupture. This record provides, for the first time ever, field observational evidence for the mechanism of intersonic transition. By using the two furthest stations we estimate the instantaneous supershear rupture propagation speed to be ~1.55 Cs and the sub-Rayleigh to supershear transition length to be around 19.45 km, very close to the location of the station nearest to the epicenter. This early supershear transition might have facilitated the continued propagation and triggering of slip on the nearby East Anatolian Fault leading to amplification of the hazard. The complex dynamics of the Kahramanmaraş earthquake warrants further studies.

How to cite: Elbanna, A., Abdelmeguid, M., and Rosakis, A.: Evidence of Early Supershear Transition in the Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake From Near-Field Records, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17601,, 2023.

Yasemin Korkusuz Öztürk, Nurcan Meral Özel, Jean-Paul Ampuero, and Elif Oral

It is essential to investigate how ruptures develop and propagate dynamically along the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) and what conditions explain the rupture propagation patterns observed for recent earthquakes. The northeast motion of the Arabian plate with respect to the Anatolian microplate and the African plate is accommodated along the left-lateral East Anatolian and Dead Sea faults.  The slip-rate along the northern Dead Sea Fault is about 4 mm/yr while the slip rate along the EAF increases from 5 mm/yr to ~12 mmm/yr towards the northeast where it connects to the North Anatolian Fault. The Mw7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake on 6th of February 2023 initiated along a splay called the Narli fault and proceeded along the EAF bilaterally, rupturing a total of more than 300 km. The earthquake ruptured a significant portion of the EAF and a section of the Amanos Fault which connects to the Cyprus Arc offshore. One interesting point is that the rupture along the EAF was dynamically triggered by a splay which is at an acute angle of ~30°. This raises the question of how the slip distribution and rupture parameters were affected by the rupture initiation at a splay fault. Initial models indicate that the rupture propagated faster toward northeast and slower toward southwest, which might indicate that the directivity of the splay fault played an important role in the rupture dynamics of this earthquake. Remarkably, this complex event triggered another destructive earthquake with magnitude Mw7.6, west of the epicenter of the first mainshock, nine hours later. The second event caused a relatively short surface rupture (~80 km) with high stress drop. The analysis of 3D dynamic earthquake rupture simulations contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the effects of material properties and initial stresses on dynamic triggering and ground motion intensity. In this study we will show our preliminary results of the dynamic modeling of the Mw7.8 earthquake using the Finite Element community code Pylith. East and south Anatolia contain many faults which are capable of generating M>7.0 earthquakes in the near future. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of the Kahramanmaras earthquakes and stress transfer to neighboring faults is important in order to understand the potential for new destructive earthquakes in the surrounding area, and to generate scenarios of damage, shaking and PGA distributions.

How to cite: Korkusuz Öztürk, Y., Meral Özel, N., Ampuero, J.-P., and Oral, E.: Preliminary Results of Dynamic Rupture Simulations of the Mw7.8 Kahramanmaras Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17602,, 2023.

Tony Nemer, Reenal Faysal, and Karam Sarieddine

The double earthquakes of 6 February 2023 in central Turkey and their associated seismic activity show a composite cloud of thousands of epicenters that mimic the number 7 and extend from central Turkey to the east Mediterranean shoreline. The lower limb of this mighty “7” spreads along a trend that matches the onshore continuation of the Latakia ridge, which is one of the most prominent seafloor structures of the east Mediterranean region. This structure extends for about 200 km along the subduction zone of the Cyprus arc where compressional forces are dominant. We interpreted a major and active reverse fault system underneath the Latakia ridge using 3D seismic interpretation. The ridge’s reverse faults rupture the seafloor and display a relief up to 500 m in height. The fault system underneath this prominent seafloor rupture is capable of generating a high magnitude earthquake and can be considered a very plausible source of the 9 July 551 M 7.2 earthquake and its associated tsunami along the Levant coast. The magnitudes of the 6 February 2023 double earthquakes and the density and trend of their associated seismic activity highlight the importance of understanding the interconnection of the seismogenic structures in the east Mediterranean region, both onshore and offshore, with additional attention to those that are potentially tsunamigenic.

How to cite: Nemer, T., Faysal, R., and Sarieddine, K.: The double earthquakes of 6 February 2023 in central Turkey: a mighty “7” from continental strike-slip to subduction, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17613,, 2023.

Francisco Muñoz-Burbano, Geneviève Savard, and Matteo Lupi

Temporal seismic velocity changes have been reported to occur before, during and after major earthquakes. We applied seismic ambient noise interferometry to analyse transient velocity changes (dv/v) in the vicinity of the fault segment affected by the 6th of February East Anatolia earthquake sequence. The dataset consists of 5 months of continuous seismic records (from October 1st 2022 to February 15 2023)   recorded by three triaxial broadband stations deployed on the shoulders of the reactivated fault system. The open-access stations are operated by the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Turkey. Cross-correlation changes over time between station pairs reveal a large velocity co-seismic drop of about 2%   in the apparent velocity. We also examine the velocity variations in single-station cross-component analysis finding a co-seismic velocity variation of 1% more prominent on horizontal cross-components. These variations may be associated with changes in the effective stress of the upper crust and may be identified before and during the occurrence of important events. We are currently investigating precursory cross-correlations and auto-correlations of the signal in comparison to long-term seasonal trends. We show the importance of seismic interferometry as an additional method to monitor active fault systems.

How to cite: Muñoz-Burbano, F., Savard, G., and Lupi, M.: Temporal seismic Velocity variations prior and during the 7.8 and 7.5 MW earhquakes occurred in south-central Turkey implementing ambient noise interferometry, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17614,, 2023.

Tolga Gorum and Hakan Tanyas

A devastating earthquake sequence occurred on February 6, 2023, within the East Anatolian fault system. Two main shocks, the Mw 7.7 Sofalaca-Şehitkamil-Gaziantep, and Mw 7.6 Ekinözü-Kahramanmaraş earthquakes occurred nine hours apart and affected 10 cities and more than an area of 100,000 km2 (PGA>0.08g). The earthquake-affected area mainly exhibits arid/semi-arid climatic conditions where approximately 15% of the landscape is characterized by steep topography (slope steepness>20°). Initial estimates of globally available predictive landslide models indicated extensive landslide distribution over the area.

We examined high-resolution satellite images and aerial photos to provide a better insight into this co-seismic landslide event and its possible post-seismic consequences. These observations are going to be validated and enriched by detailed field surveys. This research presents our preliminary findings as a result of these investigations. Our observations carried out in the first two weeks after the sequence showed that rock fall and lateral spreading are the dominant landslide types, and the overall landslide population could be less than expected. Therefore, the resultant co-seismic landslide event seems unexpected, given the intensity of ground shaking and landscape characteristics. Based on the preliminary investigations, lithology, topographic relief, and climatic conditions appear to be the main variables causing these below expectations for landslide distribution. We should stress that our historical records mostly lack landslide events in arid/semi-arid conditions, as we observed in this event. In this context, this event is going to be recorded as one of a few of its kind. Our observations also showed intense ground shaking and strongly deformed numbers of hillslopes, although most have not failed yet. In particular, heavy rain and snowmelt may result in a considerable number of failures on those hillslopes that are prone to cracking and deformation due to strong ground shaking. In this respect, this area needs to be monitored for a long time to understand the earthquake legacy effect and post-seismic hillslope response.

How to cite: Gorum, T. and Tanyas, H.: Less than expected? Landslides triggered by the 2023 Mw 7.7 and 7.6 Kahramanmaras (Türkiye) earthquake sequence, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17606,, 2023.

Asaf Inbal, Itzhak Lior, Alon Ziv, and Ran Novitsky Nof

The Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet, which struck south-eastern Turkey, imparted stress changes that dramatically affected neighboring regions: northern Israel, located about 600 km to the south of the epicenters, experienced roughly a hundred-fold increase in seismicity rates during the first week following the M>7 earthquakes. Here, we study seismic records along the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in order to identify, locate, and determine the characteristics of seismic sources triggered by seismic waves due to the M>7 earthquakes. We take advantage of a dense near-fault accelerometer network recently installed along the DST in Israel, and scan high- and low-pass filtered seismograms to look for body- and surface-wave triggering. We find that Love waves generated by the Mw7.5 earthquake triggered a small-magnitude earthquake in the northern Dead Sea lake area. Importantly, we find the first evidence of deep tectonic tremor along the DST, also triggered by the Mw7.5 Love waves. This tremor episode is composed of two 10 s bursts aligned with the strongest Love wave energy. Preliminary tremor envelope cross-correlation location results suggest it resides in the Jordan Valley, north of the Dead Sea lake, at 10 to 20 km depth, within the San Andreas Fault tremor depth range. Despite its larger magnitude, we do not find evidence for dynamic triggering due to the Mw7.8. The lack of dynamic triggering due to the Mw7.8, and the fact that waves from both earthquakes travel along similar paths to Israel, allow us to establish a threshold for dynamic earthquake triggering in the Dead Sea area.

How to cite: Inbal, A., Lior, I., Ziv, A., and Novitsky Nof, R.: Dynamic Triggering of Tremor and Earthquakes along the Dead Sea Transform by the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Doublet, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17608,, 2023.

Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Helen Crowley, Laurentiu Danciu, Karin Sesetyan, Eser Cakti, M. Abdullah Sandikkaya, Ozkan Kale, and Elif Türker and the Members of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model and 2020 European Seismic Risk Model Core Teams

The earthquakes that struck eastern Türkiye and Syria on 6 February 2023, first with a Mw 7.8 shock then followed only hours later by a second Mw 7.6 event, will have profound and long-lasting consequences for those living in this highly seismically active region. From the perspective of the European earthquake science and engineering communities, however, these events also force us to evaluate our models of seismic hazard and risk for the region, specifically the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20, Danciu et al.. 2021) and European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20, Crowley et al.. 2021), to identify potential shortcomings and focus on areas where improvement is needed. A single event such as this can neither validate nor invalidate probabilistic models, but as data emerge, we can compare these with components of our models and verify the extent to which the events themselves and their consequences are described.

We first verified that the ruptures associated to the two main earthquakes are present within the inventory of ruptures and associated probabilities within the source model (the earthquake rupture forecasts or ERFs) for the East Anatolian Fault (first event) and Sürgü-Cardak Fault (second event). These earthquakes are larger than those in the historical earthquake catalogue, but ruptures close in magnitude and dimension to those observed were present in the ESHM20 ERFs. Both magnitudes were between 0.2 – 0.4 Mw units lower than those defined for their respective faults on the different logic tree branches.

Preliminary ground motion observations allowed us to compare the observed shaking to that predicted by the ESHM20 ground motion model (GMM) and others in the literature. These were found to be consistent in their prediction of the expected shaking and its attenuation. The 6th February earthquakes do show that future models must address issues of time-dependence between earthquakes and allow for short-term clustering of large events on nearby ruptures. Recorded near-fault ground motions also suggest strong pulse-like behaviour, indicating the need for such phenomena to be better captured in the GMMs.

A complete assessment of the actual damage and consequences is not yet available from which we could compare the seismic risk model. We have run scenario risk calculations using the ESRSM20 site, exposure and vulnerability models for the two main earthquakes, along with other scenario ruptures on neighbouring faults. Expected fatalities were lower than those reported at the time of writing; however, many factors contribute to this. Further analysis is needed to understand the difference, but critical areas for future improvement to the risk models should include state-dependent fragility, modelling of further epistemic uncertainty in exposure and vulnerability, and inclusion of spatial- and temporal correlations in ground motions across a region. Future efforts by the seismic hazard and risk modelling community to address these issues considering the February 2023 earthquakes may have a lasting impact on risk mitigation, both in Türkiye and across Europe.

How to cite: Weatherill, G., Cotton, F., Crowley, H., Danciu, L., Sesetyan, K., Cakti, E., Sandikkaya, M. A., Kale, O., and Türker, E. and the Members of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model and 2020 European Seismic Risk Model Core Teams: The 6 February 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes: Insights for the European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17610,, 2023.

Seda Özarpacı, Alpay Özdemir, Efe Turan Ayruk, İlay Farımaz, Muhammed Turğut, Yusuf Yüksel, Figen Eskiköy, Uğur Doğan, Semih Ergintav, Cengiz Zabcı, Rahşan Çakmak, Mehmet Köküm, and Ziyadin Çakır

On 6 February 2023, 04:17 in local time, Mw 7.8 earthquake and nine hours later, 13:24 in local time, Mw 7.7 earthquake struck the same region resulting a massive destruction with loss of lives more than 41,000 in Türkiye and 4,000 Syria.  The earthquake took place on the East Anatolian Fault Zona (EAFZ) which is a plate boundary (~600 km) between the Anatolian and Arabian plates from Karlıova triple junction between Arabian, Anatolian and Eurasian plates to the Dead Sea Fault Zone (DSFZ) and parts of another triple junction at the south end between Adana block, Anatolian and Arabian plates at Kahramanmaraş. Secular plate velocities between Arabia and Anatolia range from 6 to 10 mm/yr and has resulted in destructive earthquakes in eastern Turkey as documented by historical records. The largest known earthquakes along the EAFZ occurred on November 29, 1114 (M > 7.8), March 28, 1513 (M > 7.4) and March 2, 1893 (M > 7.1).  The activity of these large devastating historical earthquakes contrasts with the low-level activity during the 20th century. The quiescence ended with the Mw 6.9 1971 Bingöl earthquake, which is followed about 50 year later by the Mw 6.9 January 24, 2020 Sivrice, Elazığ earthquake that ruptured only 45 km of the 95 km long Sivrice-Pütürge segment. With the latter event, seismicity accelerated along the rupture zone and activity moved towards to the SW.

Our aim is to monitor and estimate the co- and post- deformation field from geodetic measurements (InSAR and GNSS). While maximum co-seismic displacement at the ANTE GNSS station was 0.4 m in the first event (KMRS, Kahramanmaras), the biggest co-seismic displacement observed in the second event was 4.5 m in EKIZ (Ekinozu) station which is ~1.5 km away from the epicenter of the second earthquake. This co-seismic deformation field was estimated from open station of TUSAGA-Active GNNS Network. Following the earthquakes, we established three new continuous GNSS stations to monitor the postseismic deformation in Hatay province close to Türkoğlu segment of the East Anatolian Fault. Preliminary analysis indicates about 20 mm of postseismic deformation 10 days following the earthquakes. We have also conducted a GNSS campaign and occupied nearfield benchmarks. We will also monitor postseismic deformation using Sentinel and CosmoSkyMed SAR data field.

This work is supported by TUBITAK project number 121Y400 and 1002-C project “Mw 7.7 Pazarcik (Kahramanmaras) Earthquake Sequence”.

Keywords: 06.02.2023 Turkiye Earthquake Sequence, Kahramanmaras Earthquake, GNSS, InSAR, Coseismic and Postseismic Deformation

How to cite: Özarpacı, S., Özdemir, A., Ayruk, E. T., Farımaz, İ., Turğut, M., Yüksel, Y., Eskiköy, F., Doğan, U., Ergintav, S., Zabcı, C., Çakmak, R., Köküm, M., and Çakır, Z.: February 6, 2023, Mw 7.8 and 7.6 Kahramanmaraş (Turkiye) Earthquake Sequence: Insights from Co-seismic and Post-seismic Surface Deformation, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17624,, 2023.

Posters on site: Thu, 27 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | Hall X2

The posters scheduled for on-site presentation are only visible in the poster hall in Vienna. If authors uploaded their presentation files, these files are linked from the abstracts below, but only on the day of the poster session.
Chairpersons: Y. Klinger, Sezim Ezgi Guvercin, Jorge Jara
Tianhong Xu, Wenqiang Wang, and Zhenguo Zhang

On February 6th 2023, a large Mw 7.8 earthquake struck Turkey and Syria near the border area. Only 9 hours later, another Mw 7.5 earthquake occurred about 90 km northeast of the epicenter of the first earthquake. Up to now, the two earthquakes have killed at least 43,000 people and injured 120,000. Preliminary inversion results from USGS show that the geometric structure of the seismogenic fault is rather complex, and the rupture propagates through multiple sub-faults.

Massive casualties show the necessity and urgency of an earthquake rapid emergency response system, and ground motion simulation is a key component of this system. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), which are widely used, can quickly provide the distribution of ground motion and seismic intensity. Unfortunately, the calculated seismic intensity is not accurate enough due to its incomplete consideration of the earthquake source and the complicated seismic wave propagation process(Paolucci et al., 2018; Infantino et al., 2020; Stupazzini et al., 2021). In contrast, the physics-based ground motion simulation method has more advantages. In this study, we employ the USGS's finite fault inversion results as kinematic source input to model the two earthquakes' strong ground motion using the CGFDM3D-EQR platform (Wang et al., 2022). The platform can quickly run an earthquake simulation while taking into account the three-dimensional complexity of topography, underground medium, and source, providing timely reliable distribution of ground motion and seismic intensity. Preliminary findings indicate that the first earthquake's maximum intensity is XI, the second earthquake's maximum intensity is X, which is consistent with the report issued by AFAD, and that the simulated intensity's spatial distribution range is also consistent. The simulation completely considers the effects of the source, geological environment, and topography, and the seismic intensity distribution exhibits complex non-uniform properties that are closer to the reality.

The rapid ground shaking simulations of the Turkey–Syria earthquake allows for the quick, accurate, and scientific assessment of earthquake damage. To reduce lives and financial losses, these results can serve as a scientific foundation and point of reference for the relevant authorities as they decide how best to respond in an earthquake and conduct out rescue operations.






Infantino M, Mazzieri I, Özcebe A G, et al. 3d physics-based numerical simulations of ground motion in istanbul from earthquakes along the marmara segment of the north anatolian fault[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2020, 110(5): 2559-2576.

Paolucci r, Gatti F, Infantino M, et al. Broadband ground motions from 3d physics-based numerical simulations using artificial neural networksbroadband ground motions from 3d pbss using anns[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2018, 108(3A): 1272-1286.

Stupazzini M, Infantino M, Allmann A, et al. Physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard and loss assessment in large urban areas: A simplified application to istanbul[J]. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, 2021, 50(1):99-115.

Wang, W., Zhang, Z., Zhang, W., Yu, H., Liu, Q., Zhang, W., & Chen, X. (2022). CGFDM3D‐EQR: A Platform for Rapid Response to Earthquake Disasters in 3D Complex Media. Seismological Research Letters, 93 (4): 2320-2334.

How to cite: Xu, T., Wang, W., and Zhang, Z.: Strong Ground Motion Simulations of the 2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquake Sequence Using CGFDM3D-EQR, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17607,, 2023.

Jihong Liu, Xing Li, Adriano Nobile, Yann Klinger, and Sigurjón Jónsson

We report on the surface displacements of the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake duplet derived from pixel-offset tracking of Sentinel-1 radar images. From both ascending and descending orbit images, along-track (azimuth) and across-track (range) pixel offsets were derived, yielding four different offset images from which we inverted for three-dimensional surface displacements. The resulting horizontal surface displacements clearly show the left-lateral motion across the two main faults, with the vertical displacements small in comparison, confirming the almost pure strike-slip mechanism of both events. Comparison with GPS data indicates that an accuracy of ~10 cm can be achieved for the horizontal displacements. From the offset results, we mapped the main surface rupture of the first event along the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) for ~300 km and the surface rupture of the second mainshock for over 100 km, i.e., somewhat shorter than illuminated by the aftershocks. Using multiple profiles across the faults, of the fault-parallel displacements derived from the offset results, we find three slip maxima along the EAF, with the largest slip (6-7 m) found northeast of the epicenter, ~30 km east of the city of Kahramanmaraş. Another slip maximum (~4 m) is found further southwest, near Islahiye, with fault slip abruptly decreasing near Antakya at the southwestern end of the rupture. The maximum surface offset of the second fault is even larger than for the first rupture, or about 8 m, and it is found near the epicenter. In addition to localized deformation along the main rupture, across-fault profiles of both fault-parallel and fault-perpendicular displacement components also show deformation gradients that might be evidence for off-fault damage extending several km away from the surface ruptures. From the derived coseismic 3D displacements and GNSS observations, we inverted for spatially variable fault slip, revealing that most of the fault slip occurred above 15 km with maximum slip of both quakes reaching almost 10 m. The spatially variable slip model of the first mainshock has primarily three areas of high slip, like what is seen at the surface. Together the results have provided a quick and a complete overview of surface fault offsets and what faults were activated in the earthquake and will help assessing the influence these large earthquakes have had on other faults in the region.

How to cite: Liu, J., Li, X., Nobile, A., Klinger, Y., and Jónsson, S.: Fault slip and fault-zone damage of the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake duplet estimated from 3D displacement derivations of Sentinel-1 radar images, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17611,, 2023.

Haluk Özener, Çağkan Serhun Zoroğlu, Egehan Vardar, Emre Havazlı, Tülay Kaya Eken, and Mahyat Shafapour Tehrany

On February 6th, 2023, a devastating earthquake with a magnitude of Mw7.7 occurred in the Kahramanmaras region of Türkiye. The earthquake is caused by the rupture of a NE-SW oriented left lateral strike-slip Pazarcık fault segment located between the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) and Dead Sea Fault (DSF) fault systems. The aftershock sequence of the earthquake indicated that post-seismic deformation continued along the EAF and DSF toward the NE and SW. Just 9 hours later, another earthquake with a magnitude of Mw7.6 occurred along the EW-oriented left lateral Sürgü Fault, located approximately 100 km north of the first event. These two earthquakes released a significant amount of energy and affected ten provinces in southeastern Türkiye. The earthquake region is characterized by a complex tectonic structure actively deforming through a network of strike-slip, thrust, and normal faults formed by the convergence of the Arabian Plate to the Eurasian Plate and the westward movement of the Anatolian Plate. It is of utmost importance to understand the co-seismic and post-seismic surface deformation behavior to make reliable seismic hazard assessments.

To better understand the deformation patterns during and after the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, we processed Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data sets obtained before and after the earthquakes. We used both ascending and descending track SAR images of the ESA Sentinel-1 to detect the surface displacement. Then, we incorporated the post-seismic deformation patterns from the relocated aftershock events to the InSAR derived deformation field to gain insight into the source properties of the events. Our preliminary results revealed several meters of displacement across the faults.

How to cite: Özener, H., Zoroğlu, Ç. S., Vardar, E., Havazlı, E., Kaya Eken, T., and Shafapour Tehrany, M.: Surface Displacement and Source Parameters of the Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17616,, 2023.

Sezim Ezgi Güvercin, Ali Özgün Konca, Hayrullah Karabulut, Figen Eskiköy, James Hollingsworth, and Semih Ergintav

On 6 February 2023, Mw7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence ruptured a section of ~300 km of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). The rupture was initiated with a relatively small ~Mw7.0 event on the Narli Fault, a subparallel prolongation to the Amanos segment breaking ~50 km of its length to the north before reaching to the EAF, ~20s later. The Mw7.8 earthquake was followed by a Mw7.6 event rupturing E-W oriented Çardak Fault on the north of the EAF, ~9 hours later. The initial part of the rupture along the Narlı fault with Mw7.0 earthquake has significant normal component while the rest of the rupture is mostly left-lateral strike slip consistent with the EAF. The pixel correlation of satellite images shows that the rupture of the Mw7.8 event extends for 300 km along the EAF with a maximum slip of ~9 m near Kahramanmaraş Junction. Preliminary finite-fault models show that average rupture velocity toward north-east is faster (~ 3km/s) compared to the southwest (~2 km/s). The north-east extent of the rupture almost reached to the termination of the 2020, Mw6.8 Sivrice earthquake, while to the southwest, it extends to the east of the city of Antakya. The Mw7.6 earthquake has surface offset of ~10 m extending E-W for ~100 km between the EAF in the east and Savrun Fault in the west. The aftershock zone expanded over a wide region during the first few days, all over the eastern Anatolia. The seismic activities triggered on Malatya, Savrun and Göksun Faults are consistent with Coulomb stress increases. Earthquake focal mechanisms solutions are consistent with the kinematics of the ruptured faults with strike slip solutions. Normal fault solutions are observed at the terminations of the ruptures with Coulomb stress increases.  The normal fault is activated on the southern border of the Hatay Graben, with a continuation to the Cyprus Arc.  In this presentation we present the preliminary results of the seismicity, slip model including GNSS, seismic and InSAR data as well as the satellite obtained surface offsets.

How to cite: Güvercin, S. E., Konca, A. Ö., Karabulut, H., Eskiköy, F., Hollingsworth, J., and Ergintav, S.: Preliminary Seismic and Geodetic Observations of the Mw7.8 and Mw7.6 Earthquakes in Eastern Turkey, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17619,, 2023.

Theodoros Aspiotis, Tariq Anwar Aquib, David Castro-Cruz, Bo Li, Xing Li, Jihong Liu, Remi Matrau, Kadek Hendrawani Palgunadi, Laura Parisi, Cahli Suhendi, Yuxiang Tang, Yann Klinger, Sigurjon Jonsson, and Paul Martin Mai

Two powerful earthquakes (magnitudes 7.8 and 7.6) struck south-central Türkiye on February 6, 2023, causing significant damage across an extensive area of at least ten provinces in Türkiye as well as in multiple cities in northwestern Syria, making them one of the deadliest earthquakes in Türkiye for multiple centuries. The first mainshock started close to the well-known East Anatolian Fault (EAF) and then rupturing more than 300 km of that fault, whereas the second large earthquake occurred nine hours later around 90 km north of the first mainshock, on an east-west trending fault. In this study, we analysed recorded strong ground motions from the two events to better understand the factors contributing to the devastation caused by the earthquakes.


For this, we collected 250 and 200 strong ground motion records for the first and the second event, respectively, from the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) in Türkiye. Maximum peak ground accelerations (PGA) of 2g were observed at a distance of 31 km northeast of the first mainshock epicenter and 0.6g for the second event 65km west to its epicenter. In addition, we find particularly high amplitude ground motions in the Hatay province for the first event, which is consistent with the extent of damage reported in that region. High shaking levels in Antakya and other parts of Hatay can be explained by a combination of strong directivity and local site effects.


The results of our analysis imply that the PGA values derived from two local ground motion models (GMMs), adopted for the 2018 Turkish hazard map, are underestimated in comparison to observed strong motion recordings. In addition, we also compared observed peak and spectral ground motion characteristics with estimated seismic hazard values (10% probability to exceed in 50 years) in the East Anatolian Fault region (extracted from the 2018 Turkish seismic hazard map). Furthermore, we compare the recorded response spectra with the Turkish design code for several locations around the main faults.  The results show that the observations greatly exceed the hazard values and code guidelines in the Hatay province.

How to cite: Aspiotis, T., Aquib, T. A., Castro-Cruz, D., Li, B., Li, X., Liu, J., Matrau, R., Palgunadi, K. H., Parisi, L., Suhendi, C., Tang, Y., Klinger, Y., Jonsson, S., and Mai, P. M.: Strong ground motions due to directivity and site effects inflicted by the February 6 2023 earthquake doublet, along the East Anatolian Fault, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17620,, 2023.

Stefano Lorito, Jacopo Selva, Alessandro Amato, Andrey Babeyko, Basak Bayraktar, Fabrizio Bernardi, Marinos Charalampakis, Louise Cordrie, Nikos Kalligeris, Alessio Piatanesi, Fabrizio Romano, Antonio Scala, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Musavver Didem Cambaz, and Doğan Kalafat

The 2023 February 6 Mw 7.8 earthquake was the first one of a doublet which shook Türkiye and Syria causing, as per the estimates at the time of writing of this abstract, more than 45,000 casualties.

The current standard operating procedures of the NEAMTWS (Tsunami Warning System in the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas, coordinated by UNESCO/IOC) for the initial tsunami warning message following an earthquake are based on a Decision Matrix (DM), whose input parameters are hypocentre and magnitude of the earthquake. Since the epicentre of this earthquake was located at a depth between 15-35 km at almost 100 km from the coast, both KOERI (Türkiye) and INGV (Italy) Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) of the NEAMTWS issued a Tsunami Watch message (i.e., runup expected to exceed 1 m) for the whole Mediterranean Sea. NOA (Greece) did not issue any alert, because its initial location was more than 100 km from the coast.

In response to the tsunami warning, trains were stopped in different locations in Southern Italy for several hours, and evacuation of some coastal areas was enforced. However, only a relatively small tsunami was recorded by Turkish close-by tide-gauges in the Eastern Mediterranean, with a maximum recorded amplitude of less than 50 cm. Based on these measurements and on others showing little to no tsunami at increasing distances, the alert was then ended after 5 and 9 hours by INGV and KOERI, respectively, based on the available tide-gauge recordings and interaction with Civil Protection Officers.

This event has highlighted that NEAMTWS is an asset for the coastal communities. It can provide rapid alerts, which can save lives if the last-mile of the procedures is in place and the communities are “Tsunami Ready”, that is aware and prepared to respond with evacuations and other appropriate countermeasures. On the other hand, while it is reasonable – and dutiful based on current standard operation procedures – to issue a basin-wide, or at least a local alert, for an inland earthquake of unknown mechanism and of such a large magnitude, it is perhaps possible to improve the DM, which is totally heuristic and characterized by hard-thresholds, with consideration of numerical tsunami simulations and quantitative uncertainty treatment with more continuous variations. Moreover, there is no procedure currently in place to differentiate among locations where the expected time of arrival differs by many hours across the Mediterranean basin, nor a sufficient instrumental coverage that could make cancellation/ending faster due to a more solid observational basis.

We will discuss some of the scientific and operational aspects with the aim of identifying which lessons can be learned to improve the NEAMTWS efficiency. We will also compare the DM-based alerts with those that would be produced with the recently introduced Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF, Selva et al., 2021, Nature Communications), presently in pre-operational testing at INGV.

How to cite: Lorito, S., Selva, J., Amato, A., Babeyko, A., Bayraktar, B., Bernardi, F., Charalampakis, M., Cordrie, L., Kalligeris, N., Piatanesi, A., Romano, F., Scala, A., Tonini, R., Volpe, M., Cambaz, M. D., and Kalafat, D.: The Tsunami Warning triggered in the Mediterranean Sea by the 2023 February 6 Mw 7.8 Türkiye-Syria earthquake: from the present Decision Matrix (DM) to Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF)., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17621,, 2023.

Floriane Provost, Jérôme Van der Woerd, Jean-Philippe Malet, Alessia Maggi, Yann Klinger, David Michéa, Elisabeth Pointal, and Fabrizio Pacini

Monday February 6, 2023, two large Mw7+ earthquakes struck Turkey and North-Syria. The first event occurred along the N60 striking East Anatolian Fault (EAF) and its prolongation towards the Dead Sea Fault, the N25 striking Karazu fault, with an epicenter 30 km south-east off the main rupture zone. The second event is located to the north of the first one, along the N100 Sürgü-Çartak fault. Focal mechanisms of both shocks exhibit a dominant left-lateral strike-slip component on sub-vertical faults. These ruptures and mechanisms are compatible with Anatolia westward extrusion between the North and East Anatolian faults in response to Arabia-Eurasia convergence. The complex geometry of the activated faults during this earthquake sequence sheds light on how strain is partitioned and distributed among the faults of this triple-junctions linking Nubia, Arabia and Anatolia.

The current constellation of Earth Observation satellites allowed for rapid acquisition of the whole impacted area shortly after the mainshocks. On February 9, 2023, the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite captured a set of optical images while the region was mostly cloud free. This dataset offers a complete coverage of the system of faults activated during these events at 10 m spatial resolution. Although this resolution is not sufficient to map surface ruptures directly from the images, image correlation (also known as offset tracking) techniques can be applied on these images to retrieve the distribution of the surface displacement. In the present work, we used the GDM-OPT-ETQ service of the ForM@Ter solid Earth data hub to measure (with the open source photogrammetry library MicMac) the co-seismic displacement between images of January 25, 2023 and February 9, 2023. The massive processing was performed on the Geohazards Exploitation Platform (GEP). The final products of the processing are East-West and North-South displacement maps covering an area of  300 km x 300 km at 10 m resolution and further 2D strain maps are also derived. Spatial offsets in the range of 3 to near 10 m are identified with large geographic variability along the faults. 

These maps significantly contribute to identify and map the ruptures of the Turkey-Syria earthquakes and determine the along fault displacement. The spatial distribution of the displacement will be discussed together with a first order cluster analysis of the seismic sequence using an aftershock catalogs. The combined datasets should allow us to better understand the complexity of the on-fault and off-fault deformation pattern.

How to cite: Provost, F., Van der Woerd, J., Malet, J.-P., Maggi, A., Klinger, Y., Michéa, D., Pointal, E., and Pacini, F.: Mapping the ruptures of the Mw7.8 and Mw7.7 Turkey-Syria Earthquakes using optical offset tracking with Sentinel-2 images, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17612,, 2023.

Philippe Jousset, Andreas Wuestefeld, Charlotte Krawczyk, Alan Baird, Gilda Currenti, Martin Landrø, Andy Nowacki, Zack Spica, Sandra Ruiz Barajas, Fabian Lindner, Özgün A. Konca, Pascal Edme, Voon Hui Lai, Vladimir Treshchikov, Lena Urmantseva, Jan Peter Morten, Werner Lienhart, Bradley Paul Lipovsky, Martin Schoenball, and Kuo-Fong Ma and the “DAS-month” team (sample only!)

As part of a global distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) campaign, multiple DAS interrogators (from academia and industry) recorded simultaneously from 1st till 28th February 2023 in different regions of the globe. The objective is to define if and how a global monitoring system based on DAS could perform for teleseismic event record and analysis. Each participant uploaded triggered data window from earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5, as defined by global seismological networks, to a central storage location. Data was pre-processed following common filtering parameters (spatial and temporal sampling). Bottle-necks in data format, storage, and legal issues are identified and reviewed to pose the basis for a common DAS data archive strategy.

In this study, we present a selection of DAS records of the Turkey earthquake sequence, from borehole, surface, on-land, submarine telecommunication or dedicated cables all over the globe. They comprise a few kilometers long railroad track (Switzerland), an 0.8 km long deployed cable in the Limmat river, near Zürich (Switzerland), a 1 km deployed cable at Mt. Zugspitze in the Alps (Germany/Austria), a 21 km telecom cable in the forest around Potsdam (Germany), a 17 km telecom cable surface geothermal field (north Iceland), a 0.2 km borehole at Etna volcano (Italy), a telecom cable in the city of Istanbul (Turkey), a 25 km telecom cable in Melbourne (Australia), in the inner city line in Graz (Austria), in the city of Seattle, WA (USA), a submarine cable in the North Sea, a submarine cable connecting Ny Ålesund and Longyearbyen at Svalbard (Norway), a 0.8 km dedicated fibre in a quick clay area in Norway, amongst many others.

We show that signals from the two destructive earthquakes in Turkey were recorded all over the globe. We discuss the signal quality and their potential use to study teleseism signals. We analyze recorded strain amplitudes according to the different array geometries and the differing sensitivities to wave types (body, surface waves, possibly others) and deployment conditions. When available, comparison with other sensors located in the same place is performed. Finally, we analyze the influence of local geological conditions due to the passing large amplitudes waves.

With the increasing availability, reduced cost and improved simplicity of DAS systems and the wide spread existing fibre optic networks, we believe fibre-optic sensing will play an ever-increasing role in the global seismic monitoring.

How to cite: Jousset, P., Wuestefeld, A., Krawczyk, C., Baird, A., Currenti, G., Landrø, M., Nowacki, A., Spica, Z., Barajas, S. R., Lindner, F., Konca, Ö. A., Edme, P., Lai, V. H., Treshchikov, V., Urmantseva, L., Morten, J. P., Lienhart, W., Lipovsky, B. P., Schoenball, M., and Ma, K.-F. and the “DAS-month” team (sample only!): Global Distributed Fibre Optic Sensing recordings of the February 2023 Turkey earthquake sequence., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17618,, 2023.

Sigurjón Jónsson, Theodoros Aspiotis, Tariq Aquib, Eduardo Cano, David Castro-Cruz, Armando Espindola-Carmona, Bo Li, Xing Li, Jihong Liu, Rémi Matrau, Adriano Nobile, Kadek Palgunadi, Laura Parisi, Matthieu Ribot, Cahli Suhendi, Yuxiang Tang, Bora Yalcin, Ulaş Avşar, Yann Klinger, and P. Martin Mai

The Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence caused strong shaking and extensive damage in central-south Türkiye and northwestern Syria, making them the deadliest earthquakes in the region for multiple centuries. The rupture of the first mainshock (M7.8) initiated just south of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) and then ruptured bilaterally hundreds of km of the EAF, causing major stress changes in the region and triggering the second mainshock (M7.6) about 9 hours later. We mapped the surface ruptures of the two mainshocks using pixel-offset tracking of Sentinel-1 radar images and find them to be ~300 km and 100-150 km long. The distribution of aftershocks indicates that the fault ruptures may have been even longer at depth, or about ~350 km and ~170 km, respectively. The pixel-tracking results and finite-fault modeling of the spatially variable fault slip show up to 7 and 8 m of surface fault offsets at the two faults, respectively, and that fault slip was shallow in both events, mostly above 15 km. In addition, our back-projection analysis suggests the first mainshock ruptured from the hypocenter to the northeast towards the EAF (first ~15 sec), then continued along it to the northeast (until ~55 sec), and also to the southwest towards the Hatay province, later at high rupture speeds (until ~80 sec). Furthermore, strong motion recordings show PGA values up to 2g and are particularly severe in Hatay, where multiple stations show over 0.5g PGA values. Both events are characterized by abrupt rupture cessation, generating strong stopping phases that likely contributed to the observed high shaking levels. Together the results show that directivity effects, high rupture speed, strong stopping phases, and local site effects all contributed to the intensive shaking and damage in the Hatay province.

How to cite: Jónsson, S., Aspiotis, T., Aquib, T., Cano, E., Castro-Cruz, D., Espindola-Carmona, A., Li, B., Li, X., Liu, J., Matrau, R., Nobile, A., Palgunadi, K., Parisi, L., Ribot, M., Suhendi, C., Tang, Y., Yalcin, B., Avşar, U., Klinger, Y., and Mai, P. M.: Multiple effects contributed to the intensive shaking recorded in the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) earthquake sequence, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17617,, 2023.

Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Thomas Ulrich, Mathilde Marchandon, and James Biemiller

The destruction unfolding after the February 6, 2023 Turkey-Syria Earthquake sequence is devastating. First observations reveal complex earthquake dynamics challenging data-driven efforts. We present rapid, data-informed and physics-based 3D dynamic rupture simulations of the puzzling Mw7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake providing a first-order mechanical explanation of this earthquake’s complexity and its implications for the Mw7.5 doublet event.

By incorporating detailed fault geometries constrained by satellite geodetic observations into 3D dynamic rupture simulations, we show how dynamic interactions between fault geometric complexity and the heterogeneous regional stress field generated the unique and unexpected rupture behaviors observed, including localized supershear, backwards rupture branching, and locally strong shaking.

Our supercomputing empowered simulations that tightly link earthquake physics with interdisciplinary observations can provide a direct understanding of the fault system mechanics, reconcile competing interpretations and serve as a constraint to understand the short- and long-term Eastern Anatolian Fault system interaction.

How to cite: Gabriel, A.-A., Ulrich, T., Marchandon, M., and Biemiller, J.: Geodetically and seismically informed rapid 3D dynamic rupture modeling of the Mw7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17603,, 2023.

Danhua Xin, Zhenguo Zhang, Bo Chen, and Friedemann Wenzel

Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, earthquake remains one of the most destructive natural disasters in the world, especially for seismic active zones when they are characterized by high densification of fixed assets and population. For a specific country or region, the most effective way to achieve earthquake resilience is preparedness prior to an earthquake. To mitigate potential seismic risk, it is important to understand where high seismic risk zone locates, since the budgetary resources available from the local government are always limited and they should be allocated to such zone with priority. This paper proposes a strategy to delineate regional high seismic risk zone by combing different seismic risk assessment results, aiming to make the seismic risk mitigation practice more targeted and operable. Our analyses show that while the delineated high seismic risk zone occupies only ~10% of the case study area, it accounts for ~90% of the total seismic risk in terms of economic loss. To achieve more targeted seismic risk mitigation, we recommend that such zone should be given top priority in seismic risk mitigation.

How to cite: Xin, D., Zhang, Z., Chen, B., and Wenzel, F.: Delineation of Regional High Seismic Risk Zone for More Targeted Seismic Risk Mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17604,, 2023.

Michela Ravanelli, Federica Fuso, Elvira Astafyeva, and Mattia Crespi

The 2023 Türkiye earthquake sequences are among the most devastating events of recent years. The earthquake occurred on February 6th, 2023 and was characterized by several foreshocks starting from 1:17UT. The Mw 7.8 shock was the strongest and was caused by a shallow strike-slip faulting.
We applied the Total Variometric Approach (TVA) methodology to fully characterize the 2023 Turkey earthquake sequences from ground to the ionosphere [1].
The TVA technique simultaneously employs two variometric algorithms, VADASE (Variometric Approach for Displacement Analysis Stand-alone Engine) and VARION (Variometric Approach for Real-Time Ionosphere Observation), to retrieve earthquake ground shaking, co-seismic displacements and ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) variations in real-time. TVA was already successfully applied to the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake and tsunami.
In this case, we used IGS observations from 6 GNSS located in Turkey, Greece and Israeli and data from 60 GNSS receivers belonging to the Turkish network TUSAGA-Akitf [2].

Our first results show very strong ground shaking up to 10 cm/s in the East direction and up to 25 cm in the North direction. We notice great displacements especially in the horizontal plane (up to 30 cm). This is coherent with a strike-slip earthquake. Nonetheless, we also observe great displacements in the Up component (up to 1m). This could be the reason why we see this earthquake signature also in the ionosphere, although it is a strike-slip shock.
Indeed, preliminary ionospheric analyses reveal the signature of acoustic-gravity waves epicenter (AGWepi) especially for satellites G03, G04, G31 and E09.
A 30cm tsunami wave was also registered in Erdemil, along the Turkish coastline.

This study shows how the TVA can contribute to the complete understanding and rapid characterization of the seismic event, from ground to the atmosphere, and to manage and real-time earthquake hazard assessment.

[1] Ravanelli, M., Occhipinti, G., Savastano, G., Komjathy, A., Shume, E. B., & Crespi, M. (2021). GNSS total variometric approach: first demonstration of a tool for real-time tsunami genesis estimation. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 1-12.


How to cite: Ravanelli, M., Fuso, F., Astafyeva, E., and Crespi, M.: The contribution of Total Variometric Approachto the 2023 Türkiye earthquake sequences, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17626,, 2023.

Francesco Casu, Fernando Monterroso, Yenni Lorena Belen Roa, Pasquale Striano, Simone Atzori, Manuela Bonano, Claudio De Luca, Marianna Franzese, Michele Manunta, Giovanni Onorato, Muhammad Yasir, Ivana Zinno, and Riccardo Lanari

On 6 February 2023 two Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.5 seismic events struck the South-East Turkey and Northern Syria regions, close to the cities of Gaziantep and Ekinözü, causing more than 50 thousands of fatalities and above 120 thousands of injured, with incalculable, widespread damage to the surrounding villages. Such earthquakes are related to the main geodynamic regime controlled by the triple junction between the Anatolian, Arabian and African Plates, and by the tectonic context associated with a shallow strike-slip faulting, including the East Anatolian Fault zone and the Dead Sea Transform. Immediately after the occurrence of these earthquakes, we started investigating the surface deformation field induced by the considered seismic events by applying the Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) and the Pixel Offset (PO) techniques, within the framework of EPOS (European Plate Observing System), which is the European research infrastructure for the study of the solid Earth.

To this aim, we exploited several co-seismic SAR data pairs that have been collected by different satellite constellations. First of all, we exploited C-band (5.6 cm of wavelength) SAR data acquired by the Sentinel-1A sensor of the European Copernicus program from both ascending (Track 14) and descending (Track 94 and 21) orbits. Moreover, we benefited from the availability of a number of L-band (23 cm of wavelength) SAR images acquired by the twin satellites of the Argentine SAOCOM-1 constellation, programmed in collaboration with the Italian and Argentine Space Agencies.

The main focus of this work regards the joint exploitation of the Sentinel-1 and SAOCOM-1 SAR products to retrieve the 3D co-seismic deformation field. Further analysis is envisaged in order to model the co-seismic sources.

This work is supported by: the 2022-2024 IREA-CNR and Italian Civil Protection Department agreement, and by the H2020 EPOS-SP (GA 871121) and Geo-INQUIRE (GA 101058518) projects. The authors also acknowledge ASI for providing the SAOCOM data under the ASI-CONAE SAOCOM License to Use Agreement. Sentinel-1 data were provided through the European Copernicus program.

How to cite: Casu, F., Monterroso, F., Roa, Y. L. B., Striano, P., Atzori, S., Bonano, M., De Luca, C., Franzese, M., Manunta, M., Onorato, G., Yasir, M., Zinno, I., and Lanari, R.: Surface deformation retrieval of the February 2023 South-East Turkeyand Northern Syria Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.5 seismic events through Sentinel-1and SAOCOM-1 co-seismic SAR image analysis, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17628,, 2023.

Rapid Estimation of Strong Ground Motion and Building Damage Distributions after the Kahramanmaraş – Türkiye M7.7 Earthquake, 6 February 2023 (04:17 GMT+03:00)
Ufuk Hancilar, Karin Sesetyan, Eser Cakti, Erdal Safak, Nurullah Acikgoz, Nesrin Yenihayat, Fatma S. Malcioglu, Kokcan Donmez, Tugce Tetik, Hakan Suleyman, Sahin Dede, and Sukran Acar
Suli Yao and Hongfeng Yang

Rupture speed is a fundamental dynamic characteristic of earthquakes, which can be inferred by multiple approaches such as the back projection (BP) and kinematic fault slip inversion with near-field or far-field data as constraints. Here we propose a rapid estimate for rupture speed directly from the strong motion records along the southern segment of the Mw 7.8 Turkey earthquake on 6 Jan 2023. We collect data on 12 strong motion stations that are located within 3 km from the major fault trace. Due to the short distances to the fault, the ground motions on these stations can approximate a very local rupture phase, with the peak amplitudes of fault-parallel velocities corresponding to the rupture front passage. We pick peak velocities on three components and obtain an apparent propagation speed of ~ 3 km/s. To validate the correlation between the rupture speed and the apparent rupture-phase speed, we conduct 3-D dynamic rupture simulations for this Mw 7.8 event and compare the synthetic rupture front with the rupture phase. We find that the rupture speed is slightly higher than the rupture-phase speed with a difference of 5% - 10%. Based on our modeling results, we infer the actual rupture speed of ~3.2 km/s along the south segment in the Mw 7.8 Turkey earthquake. Different from those waveform-fitting methods that require certain assumptions on the earthquake source, such as the relation between the rupture front and the radiation process or the slip rate function, our approach provide a fast and robust rupture speed estimation that can be done in real time.

How to cite: Yao, S. and Yang, H.: Direct Rupture Speed Estimation from "Rupture Phase" of the 2023 Turkey Mw 7.8 Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17632,, 2023.

Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, Stefan Wiemer, and Irina Dallo

We analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of the aftershock sequence to the 2023 M7.8 Türkiye-Syria earthquake. Recently, we have calibrated a generic ETAS-based operational forecasting model for Europe, using the unified earthquake catalog developed within the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20; Danciu et al., 2022) for data between 1990 and 2015. Focusing on the earthquake sequence that started in February 2023 in Türkiye, we analyse how our model would have forecasted the temporal and spatial evolution of the sequence. We observed that the productivity of the sequence is substantially higher than forecasted by our generic model. Similar observations have been made in earlier studies on other sequences, and strategies have been proposed to improve existing models based on sequence-specific data (e.g., Omi et al., 2015). Therefore, we conclude that sequence-specific updating is required to achieve an acceptable fit between model and observations.

Here, we investigate the best way to visualize the results of aftershock forecasting and operational earthquake forecasting, and propose a new strategy for sequence-specific updating of model parameters to accurately describe the productivity and the spatial aftershock distribution, while leveraging on the parameters obtained from larger amounts of data within the European model. Our approach strives to avoid biases in the description of the temporal decay due to relying on short-term data. This is done by keeping the parameters describing the temporal decay fixed to the values inverted with our baseline model and calibrating the remaining parameters, using data of the ongoing sequence. As an alternative way to better control productivity, we test model variants for which the a value is fixed to be equal to the GR law exponent b, as proposed by Hainzl et al. (2008). The variants with both fixed and calibrated temporal kernel and productivity are fitted to varying time periods of the Turkish sequence.

We assess the model’s consistency with observations by comparing the forecasts issued by the basic and modified models to the observed events. Preliminary results suggest that keeping the temporal kernel and the productivity parameter a fixed provides better forecasts than the baseline model, already when small amounts of data from the sequence are available. Having identified a promising strategy for sequence-specific model updating, we plan to test whether it is systematically successful by applying it to all earthquake sequences in Europe that occurred after the end of the baseline model training period in 2015. Moreover, we will develop prototypes of communication products that should support professional, societal stakeholders (e.g., decision makers, first responders) to take informed decisions, for example during rescue investigations. Thereby, we will follow evidence-based recommendations derived from the research efforts in the European Horizon-2020 project RISE (Freeman et al., 2023).

How to cite: Han, M., Mizrahi, L., Wiemer, S., and Dallo, I.: Sequence-specific updating of European ETAS model: Application to the 2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquake sequence, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17634,, 2023.