Unraveling the association between artic region and Indian summer monsoon – an empirical study

Monsoon influences the well-being of billions of people in tropical and subtropical regions. The accelerated climate change and monsoon coupling with other large-scale climatic phenomena make their prediction challenging. Therefore, improvement in understanding and prediction of monsoons has become essential. Recent studies have emphasized the role of arctic region in influencing the tropical climate and its potential to cause more persistent extreme events. Therefore, it is imperative to explore the arctic region for its strategic advantage and combat climate change. In this direction, our work aims to unravel the association between the Arctic region and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). We quantify the influence of the Arctic region on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using statistical parameters. The sea ice extent and Arctic Oscillation Index were correlated with the precipitation in India at seasonal and monthly scale. The Arctic Oscillation index was able to explain around 7-10% of variability in precipitation. The increased magnitude and frequency of precipitation in India are significantly related to decreased sea ice extent indicated by negative correlation coefficient ranging from 0.3-0.6.