Increasing chances of summer wildfires in the UK?

In the summer of 2022 unprecedented weather conditions in the UK lead to wildfires in many regions. Record breaking temperatures – above 40 °C for the first time - and prolonged dry conditions led to exceptional fire weather severity. On July 19th London Fire Brigade declared a major incident as firefighters battled several significant wildfires across the city. We investigate if climate change is enhancing summertime wildfire risk in the UK. 

We use reanalysis data from 1960 to the present day to analysis trends in the climatic indicators that influence the fire weather index. A large ensemble of initialised climate model simulations from the same time period are used to support the findings and identify as-yet-unrealised possible fire weather index situations in the UK. 

In the UK the term ‘wildfire’ is not limited to fires in wildland, but to any uncontrolled vegetation fire which requires action regarding suppression. Wildfires in the UK are considered a semi-natural hazard due to their close link with human activity. Though we investigate only meteorological influences, these are not the sole cause of wildfires – for example fuel availability plays a large role. 

Better understanding of the trends in the fire weather severity and chance of exceptional conditions for the UK will enable improved understanding of the risks. This information can feed into relevant policy and contingency planning, allowing society to become better prepared for the future as the planet continues to warm.