Increased impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global vegetation under future warming environment

There are broad impacts of vegetation changes on water cycle, regional climate, carbon budget and ecosystems productivity. Hence, further understanding of the drivers of future vegetation changes are crucial. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a main mode of interannual climate variability and is expected to influence vegetation at a global scale. Nevertheless, little is known about the causal impacts of ENSO on future vegetation cover under warming environment and changes in land use. Here, we investigated the links between ENSO and vegetation using leaf area index (LAI) data over the 2015-2100 period from Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that the vegetated areas influenced by ENSO are projected to increase by 3% and 1% of total land areas in the 21st century of the scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. These results suggest that the impacts of ENSO on global vegetation may increase in the future. While uncertainty remains in several regions for the causal link between ENSO and vegetation changes, this study provides insights on the future impacts of ENSO on global vegetation dynamics.