EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere

Yichen Zhang1, Shilong Piao1,2, Yan Sun3, Brendan M. Rogers4, Xiangyi Li1, Xu Lian1, Zhihua Liu5, Anping Chen6, and Josep Peñuelas7,8
Yichen Zhang et al.
  • 1Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • 3College of Marine Life Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
  • 4Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA.
  • 5CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, China.
  • 6Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
  • 7CREAF, Cerdanyola del Valles, Barcelona,, Spain.
  • 8CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Barcelona, Spain.

Climatic warming has greatly increased vegetation productivity in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere since the 1980s, but how long this positive relationship will continue remains unknown. Here we show changes in the effect of warming on Northern Hemisphere summer gross primary productivity for 2001–2100 using Earth system model outputs. The correlation between summer gross primary productivity and temperature decreases in temperate and boreal regions by the late twenty-first century, generally becoming significantly negative before 2070 in regions <60° N, though Arctic gross primary productivity continues to increase with further summer warming. The time when the correlation becomes negative is generally later than the time when summer temperature exceeds the optimal temperature for vegetation productivity, suggesting partial mitigation of the negative vegetation impacts of future warming with photosynthetic thermal acclimation. Our findings indicate that vegetation productivity could be impaired by climate change in the twenty-first century, which could negatively impact the global land carbon sink.

How to cite: Zhang, Y., Piao, S., Sun, Y., Rogers, B. M., Li, X., Lian, X., Liu, Z., Chen, A., and Peñuelas, J.: Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3016,, 2023.

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material file