Linking energy system analysis with factors of production analysis: A US case study

Energy system analysis has been widely used to imply technologically and economically plausible energy-system transition pathways for national net-zero emissions targets. Undermining the feasibility of such energy system analysis results are the highly-resolved mapping, sector-by-sector, of the timing and spatial distribution of changes in energy infrastructure, capital investment, employment, air pollution, land use, and other key outcomes at local level. A successful net-zero transition must be accomplished with supplementary supply of factors of production (e.g., human capital, natural capital, investment etc.) to enable such low-carbon transition. Using Princeton’s net-zero America study as example, we find that each net-zero pathway results in a net increase in energy-sector employment and delivers significant reductions in air pollution, leading to public health benefits that begin immediately in the first decade of the transition. We also conclude that each transition pathway features historically unprecedented rates of deployment of multiple technologies. Impacts on landscapes, incumbent industries and communities are significant and planning will need to be sensitive to regional changes in employment and local impacts on communities.