Lightning activity in Mexico under climate change scenarios

Lightning has an important role in the Earth's energy balance, atmospheric chemistry, the initiation of natural forest fires, and a close relationship with the development of deep convection. On the other hand, lightning is also a significant meteorological hazard, particularly in Mexico, during the rainy season, causing deaths and disrupting socio-economic activities. According to the IPCC report, it is expected an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events in North America due to climate change in the forthcoming decades. To understand the impacts of climate change on lightning in the Mexican territory, it is necessary to explore the future changes in the regional patterns of lightning activity in the region. We use different parameterizations of lightning activity over Mexico, using data from reanalysis and coupled models from CMIP6. We also evaluate the parameterization performance in representing the historical period against available lightning observations. Later, we obtain the projected changes at the end of the 21st Century in the selected CMIP models under the most extreme climate change scenario. At the end of this preliminary study, we provide insides into how climate change will impact extreme events and lightning activity over Mexico.