Multi-risk assessment due to global warming under the SSP climate scenario in the Republic of Korea

Assuming that greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase as the current trend, the global average temperature is expected to rise by about 5.7°C by the end of the 21st century. High temperatures and heat waves will increase across East Asia, including in Republic of Korea, and extreme weather events, such as heavy rains and floods, will intensify and become more frequent. Even if carbon neutrality is achieved, losses may still occur due to the limited ability of humans and natural systems to adapt to higher global average temperatures. According to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), the global average temperature is projected to rise by 2℃ in 2036 (2022-2051, SSP126), by 3℃ in 2065 (2051-2080, SSP245), and it is forecasted to rise by 5.38℃ from 2070 to 2099 (SSP585). When the global average temperature rises by 1.5℃, Republic of Korea's average temperature rises by 0.34℃~0.75℃, a 2℃ increase by 0.82℃~1.01℃, and a 3℃ increase by 1.08℃~1.42℃. As global warming continues, it is analyzed that the difference between Korea and the global average temperature will become larger. Global warming in Republic of Korea is progressing faster than global warming, this will have serious repercussions in various sectors. It is necessary to comprehensively assess risks in various sectors and use the results to establish adaptation policy in order to prepare for damage caused by climate change in advance. This study provides information for comprehensive decision-making support by assessing and integrating climate change risks under the 2℃, 3℃, and end of the 21st century (Bau) scenario in health, energy, traffic, agriculture, forest, and water sectors. Key findings show the current (1985–2014) average annual number of days with heat wave warnings issued by the Korean Meteorological Administration is 6 days. This number is expected to increase to 29 days (+23 days) under 2℃ global warming and to 47 days (+41 days) under 3℃ global warming; it is expected to increase by a factor of 5-15 to 92 days (+85 days) by the end of the 21st century (BaU). The current average period of severe agricultural drought is 0.38 months per year. It will increase to 1.0 month (+0.64 months) under 2℃ global warming and to 0.8 months (+0.43 months) under 3℃ global warming; it is expected to increase to 1.6 months (+1.24 months) by the end of the 21st century (BaU), for a 1.1-4.3-fold increase. The results of the study is expected to contribute to the revitalization of global warming impact and risk assessment research by presenting the global warming period for each SSP scenario. It contributes to the establishment of scientific countermeasures linked to climate risks by predicting the risks of local governments due to global warming and analyzing the current status and characteristics of local governments' adaptation measures.

 [Acknowledgement] This paper is based on the findings of the environmental technology development project for the new climate regime conducted by the Korea Environment Institute (2022-070(R)) and funded by the Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (2022003570004).