NH10.1 | Multi-hazards: Innovative approaches to risk assessments, disaster risk reduction, and climate change adaptation

NH10.1

Multi-hazards: Innovative approaches to risk assessments, disaster risk reduction, and climate change adaptation

This session aims to share innovative approaches to multi-hazard risk assessments and their components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity), and to explore their applications to disaster risk reduction.

Effective disaster risk reduction practices and the planning of resilient communities requires the evaluation of multiple hazards and their interactions. This approach is endorsed by the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Multi-hazard risk and multi-hazard impact assessments look at interaction mechanisms among different natural hazards, and how spatial and temporal overlap of hazards influences the exposure and vulnerability of elements at risk. Moreover, the uncertainty associated with multi-hazard risk scenarios needs to be considered, particularly in the context of climate change and slow-onset hazards, such as Covid-19 and pandemics in general, characterized by dynamic changes in exposure and vulnerability that are challenging to quantify.

This session, therefore, aims to profile a diverse range of multi-hazard risk and impact approaches, including hazard interactions, multi-vulnerability studies, and multi-hazard exposure characterization. In covering the whole risk assessment chain, we propose that it will be easier to identify potential research gaps, synergies and opportunities for future collaborations.

We encourage abstracts which present innovative research, case study examples and commentary throughout the whole disaster risk cycle on (i) multi-hazard risk methodologies which address multi-vulnerability and multi-impact aspects; (ii) methodologies and tools for multi-hazard risk management and inclusive risk-informed decision making and planning; (iii) methodologies and tools for multi-hazard disaster scenario definition and management for (near) real-time applications; (iv) cross-sectoral approaches to multi-hazard risk, incorporating the physical, social, economic, and/or environmental dimensions; (v) uncertainty in multi-hazard risk and multi-hazard impact assessment; (vi) evaluation of multi-hazard risk under future climate and slow-onset hazards, including pandemics; (vii) implementation of disaster risk reduction measures within a multi-hazard perspective.

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Co-organized by CL3.2/HS13

Convener: Marleen de RuiterECSECS | Co-conveners: Stefano TerziECSECS, Silvia De AngeliECSECS, Faith TaylorECSECS, Annie Winson

Orals

| Thu, 27 Apr, 14:00–17:12 (CEST)

Room 1.15/16

Posters on site

| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)

Hall X4

Posters virtual

| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)

vHall NH

Orals: Thu, 27 Apr | Room 1.15/16

The oral presentations are given in a hybrid format supported by a Zoom meeting featuring on-site and virtual presentations. The button to access the Zoom meeting appears just before the time block starts.

Chairpersons: Marleen de Ruiter, Silvia De Angeli, Stefano Terzi

14:00–14:05

5-minute convener introduction

14:05–14:10

Multi-(hazard) risk assessments

14:10–14:20

EGU23-800

ECS

On-site presentation

A Novel Method to Generate Global Multi-Hazard Event Sets

Judith Claassen, Philip Ward, Elco Koks, James Daniell, Timothy Tiggeloven, and Marleen De Ruiter

While the last decade saw substantial scientific advances in studies aimed at improving our understanding of natural hazard risk, research and policy commonly address risk from a single-hazard, single-sector perspective. Thus, not considering the spatial and temporal interconnections of these events. Single-hazards risk analyses are often inaccurate and incomplete when multi-hazard disasters occur, as the interaction between them may lead to a different impact than summing the impacts of single events.

A key first step to reduce this inaccuracy is to create greater understanding of realistic multi-hazard event sets that better examines statistical dependencies between hazard types. Therefore, it is important to understand the spatial and temporal aspects of each individual hazard in order to evaluate when multiple coinciding hazards are a multi-hazard event. To do so, single hazards datasets for meteorological, geological, hydrological and climatological events are explored with the use of a decision tree. The decision tree accounts for varying intensities and time-lags between hazards to better address the dynamics of vulnerability. This paper provides a decision tree that enables realistic multi-hazard event sets to be created based on varying assumptions (such as, the time-lag, the time between two individual hazards). By generating a, first of its kind, global multi-hazard event set database, spanning from 2004 to 2016, we achieve a greater knowledge of the different types of multi-hazards, such as triggering, amplifying, compound and consecutive events, as well as their interconnections. This global dataset provides practitioners and other stakeholders with insights on the frequency of different multi-hazard events and their hotspots. The methods provided in this paper is opensource and can be used by other researchers to conduct a more comprehensive multi-risk assessment.

How to cite: Claassen, J., Ward, P., Koks, E., Daniell, J., Tiggeloven, T., and De Ruiter, M.: A Novel Method to Generate Global Multi-Hazard Event Sets, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-800, 2023.

14:20–14:30

EGU23-5959

On-site presentation

The development of multi-hazard risk scenarios for use in sector specific analyses in Europe and beyond

(withdrawn)

James Daniell, Andreas Schaefer, Judith Claassen, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Bijan Khazai, Jaroslav Mysiak, Dana Stuparu, and Trevor Girard

14:30–14:40

EGU23-4277

ECS

On-site presentation

Systems-level geohazard risk assessment in southwestern British Columbia, Canada

Jack Park and D. Jean Hutchinson

In Western Canada, geohazards can be related to tectonic events, such as earthquakes and volcanoes, but many are weather-driven events, such as floods, landslides, rockfalls, and snow avalanches. Anthropogenic activities, such as residential development, infrastructure, and climate change also contribute to and increase the overall risk from, geohazards. A recent example is the atmospheric river event that devastated much of the southern British Columbia (BC) province in November 2021. Between November 14 and 15, 2021, a 2,500 km long plume of moisture (atmospheric river) hit the west coast of BC and accumulated significant rainfall breaking 20 rainfall records across the province. This intense rainfall event resulted in regional flooding and triggered numerous landslides across the southern province. The impact included closures of all major transportation corridors, severed rail lines, with no rail connections between Kamloops and Vancouver, and evacuation of close to 15,000 residents.

In Western Canada, many geohazards risk assessments are performed within the risk management framework outlined by the Canadian Standards Association. Though guidelines exist, such as the Canadian Technical Guidelines on Landslides, there is no national or provincial standard for managing risk associated with geohazards. Furthermore, BC’s Municipalities Act, which allows individual municipality jurisdictions to manage their own risk, results in uneven distribution of funding and almost always results in emergency response. The insured losses from the November 2021 atmospheric river event are estimated to be $500 million CAD ($370 million USD) and uninsured losses are $9 billion CAD ($6.7 billion USD) and counting. These losses do not account for economic losses due to the closure of major transportation infrastructure networks.

Immediate efforts following the November 2021 atmospheric river event focused on opening the major highway routes. However, the rebuilding of failed bridge and highway embankments is considered a temporary solution and further upgrades in designs are needed to account for the increasing frequency and magnitude of future atmospheric river events. With limited resources at all levels of government, the risk associated with regional-level geohazard triggers needs to be better understood in order to prioritize road infrastructure capacity. Keeping the critical highway arteries open is important not only for economic benefits but to allow for emergency access for communities.

This research looks to help prioritize road infrastructure capacity based on its vulnerability to atmospheric river-triggered geohazard events. Information related to road closures, geohazard events, and infrastructure damages is compiled and related to preconditions of weather trends and infrastructure capacity leading up to the November 2021 event. Road network analysis is performed by defining consequence assessment parameters, such as average daily traffic, associated economic revenue, availability of safety stopping zones, and infrastructure redundancy. Then the risk is assessed based on the vulnerability assignment of different segments of the road network which is presented in a criticality map.

How to cite: Park, J. and Hutchinson, D. J.: Systems-level geohazard risk assessment in southwestern British Columbia, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4277, 2023.

14:40–14:50

EGU23-13915

On-site presentation

An impact-based extreme event catalogue on southwest Germany: Overview, Clustering and Triggers

Katharina Küpfer, Susanna Mohr, and Michael Kunz

Multiple hazards of different types, such as heat waves, floods, or storms, occurring either simultaneously or in serial clusters can significantly enhance adverse effects on society, economy, and the environment compared to single events. The disastrous flood in Western Europe in 2021 once again showed that natural hazards can lead to severe building damage and thus pointed to the importance of insurance coverage against such events.

To better understand how multiple hazards translate into impact, we propose an economic approach using a unique residential building insurance dataset for southwest Germany ranging from 1986 to 2020. This dataset includes both the number of damage claims reported to a building insurance company and insured losses on a daily resolution, aggregated over the federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg. This study area is chosen because of the high insurance coverage and therefore high reliability of the data to capture the most important events compared to other states in Germany. In the first step, an event catalogue regarding serially clustered events was elaborated using different methods and statistics. Only convective storms, winter storms and floods are taken into account as these events cause most of the economic damage compared to other events, such as heat waves. To filter smaller events with limited impact and to remove high-frequency clustering, various methods to aggregate the loss events over several days are applied and compared, such as runs declustering using the Peak-Over-Threshold method and an aggregation method considering a fixed number of days, which is common in the insurance industry. After further separating the events according to the relevant seasons, we apply and compare three different clustering methods to the filtered economic dataset: (a) the Poisson regression method, (b) Ripley’s K, and (c) the counting method.

Results show that a high percentile (e.g., 95th or 99th) is needed to analyse the dataset with regard to the most damaging events. This is because the dataset shows a strongly right-skewed distribution. Furthermore, it is found that a small number of high-impact events dominate the overall damage. We show that different hazard types exhibit different behaviours regarding economic metrics (e.g., average loss or correlation between damage claims and insured loss). It is also found and discussed that the degree of clustering depends on the method chosen. For this reason, we performed sensitivity tests and applied different methods to estimate the reliability of the results. To better differentiate between the meteorological event types (e.g., pluvial vs. fluvial floods and convective gusts vs. windstorms), the dataset is further filtered with precipitation data and a dataset on turbulent wind gusts. Building on the final event set with the different event types, the time frames identified by the analyses above are combined with large-scale weather patterns that were dominant at the times when the loss events occurred. This is done to identify relevant relationships of extreme events and their clusters to large-scale processes and mechanisms (e.g., weather regimes or teleconnection patterns).

How to cite: Küpfer, K., Mohr, S., and Kunz, M.: An impact-based extreme event catalogue on southwest Germany: Overview, Clustering and Triggers, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13915, 2023.

14:50–14:55

Section 2: natural hazards and COVID

14:55–15:05

EGU23-3461

On-site presentation

Impact webs: a novel approach for characterising and assessing multi-risk in complex systems

Edward Sparkes, Davide Cotti, Himanshu Shekhar, Saskia E. Werners, Angel A. Valdiviezo-Ajila, Sumana Banerjee, Gusti Ayu Ketut Surtiari, Anthony J. Masys, and Michael Hagenlocher

Characterising and assessing multi-risk in complex systems is vital to realise the expected outcome of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. As sectors and systems are increasingly interconnected, the space in which impacts cascade is expanding. This became apparent throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, but can also be seen in the compounding and cross-border effects of climate change and connected extreme events, or from global ripple effects of armed conflicts such as the aggression committed by Russia against Ukraine. Single-hazard and single-risk approaches, while useful in certain contexts, are becoming increasingly insufficient for comprehensively managing risk due to cross-sector and cross-system interactions. There is therefore a need to develop tools that can account for how multiple hazards interact with multiple vulnerabilities of interdependent systems and sectors, which requires a systemic perspective for assessing risks.

To this aim, we developed a novel analytical tool to characterise the interconnections between risks, their underlying hazards, risk drivers, root causes and responses to risks and impacts across different systems. The tool draws on the impact chains approach (i.e. conceptual models for climate risk assessment), expanding its linear and sectoral focus towards a system-oriented view. We follow the recommendation of Zebisch et al (2021) and name this tool ‘Impact Webs'.

We applied the tool to five case studies in Bangladesh, Ecuador, India, Indonesia and Togo to characterise and assess cascading risks linked to COVID-19, responses to it (e.g. restriction measures) and other hazards that co-occurred during the pandemic (e.g. hydrological, geophysical, climatological). The participatory co-development of the Impact Webs was led by local case study experts and involved desk research, stakeholder workshops and expert/community consultations.

These diverse applications at multiple scales showed that Impact Webs are useful to conceptualise and visualise networks of interconnected elements across sectors. Because of the tools suitability to simultaneously analyse the interactions of multiple hazards with multiple pre-existing vulnerabilities, it provided a representation of the multi-risk space in the case studies. This is promising to identify critical elements for further investigation, such as feedback effects, trade-offs and key agents that can influence risks in systems. To this aim, the tool not only accounts for negative impacts, but also how policy responses and societal reactions to policies can lead to additional positive outcomes, as well as unintended consequences, i.e. risks arising from responses. However, given the complexity of systems and system boundaries, it is not possible to characterise all interconnections using Impact Webs. While this simplification of reality is useful for communication purposes, only the most prominent outcomes of the tool are derivable, and although the participatory approach aims to reduce this, results can be influenced by inherent biases. Despite these challenges, we find that Impact Webs are a promising new approach to characterise and assess multi-risk, thereby supporting comprehensive disaster risk management.

How to cite: Sparkes, E., Cotti, D., Shekhar, H., Werners, S. E., Valdiviezo-Ajila, A. A., Banerjee, S., Surtiari, G. A. K., Masys, A. J., and Hagenlocher, M.: Impact webs: a novel approach for characterising and assessing multi-risk in complex systems, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3461, 2023.

15:05–15:15

EGU23-2797

ECS

On-site presentation

Unfolding multi-hazard interactions: Zooming in on the links between flood events and the Covid-19 infection rate in Romania

Cosmina Albulescu and Daniela Larion

The third decade of the century started with a major epidemiological disturbance that favoured the increase in the co-occurrence of hazards in both developed and developing countries. This translated into a multi-hazard research boost, aiming to explore the interactions between concurrent or cascading hazards, but also to propose improved multi-hazard management strategies.

Since floods represent frequent and impactful natural hazards, their spatial and temporal overlap with the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in compounded negative effects that are difficult to mitigate applying classical flood management plans. In return, the efforts of curbing SARS-CoV-2 infection rates become even more of a tall order during flood events. Therefore, both flood and pandemic management practices need to be amended considering each other’s aims, priorities, limitations, and strengths; which cannot be achieved without a proper understanding of the ways the two hazards interact.

This study questions whether the river flood events that occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic in Romania, and the way that they were managed, had an impact on the infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus at county scale. The challenge of data scarcity was addressed by identifying the flood events of 2020-August 2022 based on the hydrological warnings issued by the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management. In addition, hazard management data were extracted from autochthonous online press. Only flood events that were severe enough to impose the evacuation of population were corroborated with the Covid-19 confirmed cases dataset, and also with milestones of the Covid-19 preventive legal framework.

The flood events under analysis were followed by an increase in the total confirmed cases at the end of the Covid-19 incubation time range at county level, with only one exception. Infection rates varied in size, most of the counties registering under 50 new Covid-19 confirmed cases after 2 weeks since flood events. The viral load increased by a maximum of 208 new cases of Covid-19. These increases correspond to the late spring and summer months, defined by climatic conditions that hinder the spread of the virus, simultaneously allowing the relaxation of Covid-19 preventive measures. Consequently, low-level local and national viral loads prevented a post-flood spike in the Covid-19 positive cases, which explains the prevalence of increases under 50 new cases. In counties where the infection rate exceeded 150 additional cases, local-scale particularities should be considered. Thus, it is difficult to establish a definite link between flood events and the dynamics of the Covid-19 infection rates recorded in the selected counties.

This research work contributes to the multi-hazard research field by adding important insights on i) the impact of flood events on the number of Covid-19 confirmed cases in a country with high flood risk, and ii) the interactions between the Covid-19 and flood management practices, also providing an example on how to tackle the data scarcity problem through an adapted data collection procedure. The findings may be used to ground decision-making aiming to address the present-day multi-hazard riddle: natural hazard management requires collaboration, while Covid-19 management practices hold social distancing to the core.

How to cite: Albulescu, C. and Larion, D.: Unfolding multi-hazard interactions: Zooming in on the links between flood events and the Covid-19 infection rate in Romania, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2797, 2023.

Coffee break

Chairpersons: Marleen de Ruiter, Faith Taylor, Silvia De Angeli

16:15–16:20

Section 3: Multi-(hazard) risk management

16:20–16:21

Regional scale

16:21–16:31

EGU23-5815

On-site presentation

Promoting disaster preparedness and resilience by co-developing stakeholder support tools for managing the systemic risk of compounding disasters

Cees van Westen, Funda Atun, Silvia Cocuccioni, Marcel Hurlimann, Bettina Koelle, Philipp Marr, Iuliana Armas, Seda Kundak, Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Marc van den Homberg, and Jon Hall

Stakeholders in disaster risk management are faced with the challenge to adapt their risk reduction policies and emergency plans to cascading and compounding events, but often lack the tools to account for the cross-sectoral impacts and dynamic nature of the risks involved. The EU Horizon Europe PARATUS project, which started in October 2022 and will run to October 2026, aims to fill this gap by developing an open-source online platform for dynamic risk assessment that allows to analyze and evaluate multi-hazard impact chains, dynamic risk reduction measures, and disaster response scenarios in the light of systemic vulnerabilities and uncertainties. These services will be co-developed within a transdisciplinary consortium of 19 partners, consisting of research organizations, NGOs, SMEs, first and second responders, and local and regional authorities. To gain a deeper understanding of multi-hazard impact chains, PARATUS conducts forensic analysis of historical disaster events, based on a database of learning case studies, augments historical disaster databases with hazard interactions and sectorial impacts, and exploits remote sensing data with artificial intelligence methods. Building on these insights, PARATUS will then develop new exposure and vulnerability analysis methods that enable systemic risk assessment across sectors (e.g. humanitarian, transportation, communication) and geographic settings (e.g. islands, mountains, megacities). These methods will be used to analyze risk changes across space and time and to develop new scenarios and risk mitigation options together with stakeholders, using innovative serious games and social simulations.
The methods developed in PARATUS have been applied in four application case studies. The first one is related to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean. This case study considers the cross-border impacts of tropical storms, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and space weather, and focuses on the development of impact-based forecasting, directed at humanitarian response planning, the telecommunication sector, and tourism. The second case study deals with the local and regional economic impact of hazardous events such as extreme wind, floods, rockfall, mudflow, landslides, and snow avalanches on cross-border transportation in the Alps. The third case study relates to the multi-hazard impact of large earthquakes in the Bucharest Metropolitan Region and focuses on systemic vulnerabilities of the city and emergency response. The fourth application case study is the Megacity of Istanbul which is prone to earthquake hazard chains, such as liquefaction, landslides, and tsunami, as well as to hydrometeorological hazards (extreme temperatures, fires, and flooding). Population growth rates, urban expansion speed, composition, and integration of new migrants (native, foreign, and refugees from countries like Syria and Afghanistan) contribute to the increasing disaster risk.
The project results will be hosted on two stakeholder hubs related to crisis management and humanitarian relief, and provide stakeholders with a set of tools for risk reduction planning in dynamic multi-hazard environments. The service-oriented approach with active stakeholder involvement will maximize the uptake and impact of the project, and help to increase Europe’s resilience to compounding disasters.

How to cite: van Westen, C., Atun, F., Cocuccioni, S., Hurlimann, M., Koelle, B., Marr, P., Armas, I., Kundak, S., de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, E., van den Homberg, M., and Hall, J.: Promoting disaster preparedness and resilience by co-developing stakeholder support tools for managing the systemic risk of compounding disasters, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5815, 2023.

16:31–16:41

EGU23-1658

ECS

On-site presentation

Exploring disaster risk management pathways in complex, multi-risk systems using DAPP-MR

Julius Schlumberger, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jeroen Aerts, and Marleen de Ruiter

Climate change and socioeconomic developments are driving risks from natural hazards and thus determine the effectiveness and efficiency for disaster risk management strategies. With DAPP-MR, an approach to apply a decision-focused lens, and a longer-term planning perspective in multi-risk systems has been recently developed. DAPP-MR guides the exploration of disaster risk management pathways under uncertainty while explicitly accounting for trade-offs and synergies of policy measures across (interconnected) sectors, hazards, and time.

This work provides a first insight into the utility of the DAPP-MR framework to support disaster risk management decision making in the complex context of multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder settings. We used an integrated impact assessment modelling environment to assess (multi-)hazard impacts in a synthetic river basin, capturing interests and dynamics of three sectors (agriculture, inland shipping, residential housing) exposed to interacting flood and drought-hazards. We showcase (interactive) methods and metrics for the analysis and evaluation of potential risk management pathways. They were selected to deal with the increasingly multi-objective set-up in multi-risk systems explicitly capturing and explore effects from integrating measures directed towards different hazards and sectors.

How to cite: Schlumberger, J., Haasnoot, M., Aerts, J., and de Ruiter, M.: Exploring disaster risk management pathways in complex, multi-risk systems using DAPP-MR, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1658, 2023.

16:41–16:51

EGU23-17552

On-site presentation

Diagnosing multi-hazard risk research, practice, and policy in a European context - lessons learnt from the first year of research in MYRIAD-EU

Roxana Liliana Ciurean, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Lara Smale, Julia Crummy, Dana Stuparu, and Julius Schlumberger

The first priority of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is Understanding Disaster Risk. To achieve this goal, it is essential that research and practice draw upon previous disaster risk work. What can the use of terminology and concepts tell us about the barriers and opportunities to further our understanding of disaster risks? How can we build more effectively upon existing tools, methods, and approaches to inform future multi-hazard risk solutions? And what is the current multi-risk governance landscape in Europe? To answer these questions, we present the results of the first work package (WP1) of MYRIAD-EU – a multi-disciplinary, multi-sector project on systemic risk assessment and management in the E.U., funded by the Horizon 2020 Programme. WP1 aimed at undertaking a common baseline development to ensure that all MYRIAD-EU work packages are underpinned by a common understanding of terminology, concepts, and current academic, policy, and industry perspectives on multi-hazard, multi-risk assessment and management.

In this presentation, we briefly introduce the methods, outputs, and outcomes of the first year of Diagnosis research in MYRIAD-EU. We look closer at two outputs, namely the Handbook of multi-hazard, multi-risk definitions and concepts, and the Disaster Risk Gateway wiki platform, aimed at promoting interdisciplinary research and engagement between different actors involved in disaster risk assessment and management. Finally, we reflect on lessons learnt and highlight upcoming work in this project.

How to cite: Ciurean, R. L., Duncan, M., Gill, J., Smale, L., Crummy, J., Stuparu, D., and Schlumberger, J.: Diagnosing multi-hazard risk research, practice, and policy in a European context - lessons learnt from the first year of research in MYRIAD-EU, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17552, 2023.

16:51–16:52

Local scale

16:52–17:02

EGU23-13897

On-site presentation

Development and use of an integrated modelling approach to simulate dynamic risk profiles and support risk reduction strategies

Hedwig van Delden, Roel Vanhout, Amelie Jeanneau, Douglas Radford, Holger R. Maier, and Aaron C. Zecchin

Natural hazards pose a significant risk to societies across the world. This risk will likely increase in the future, due to climate change, urban development and changing demographics. Understanding the range of potential future conditions, and the associated key uncertainties, is essential in designing disaster risk management strategies that holistically account for these drivers.

For this purpose, we have developed a spatially explicit, dynamic, multi-hazard decision support system called UNHaRMED, which calculates dynamic risk profiles as a combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The aim of UNHaRMED is to better understand current and future risk, and assess the impact of (a combination) of risk reduction options under various future conditions. In order to do so, UNHaRMED consists of coupled models integrated into a policy support system. It allows the user to understand the impact of climate change, socio-economic developments and risk reduction options on the future evolution of exposure, hazard and vulnerability and hence the resulting risk.

Use of the system will be illustrated through an application to a region in Australia for wildfire and flood risk, for which we simulated a range of futures using different climate and socio-economic scenarios. We found that in a rapidly growing area, the impact of socio-economic development exceeds the impact of climate change, and well thought out spatial planning strategies can substantially reduce future wildfire and flood risk.

The application of UNHaRMED showcases its potential in better understanding future uncertainties and leveraging this information to assess the impact of risk reduction options under a range of conditions. Lessons learned from this can then be incorporated in the design of robust and/or adaptive risk management strategies.

How to cite: van Delden, H., Vanhout, R., Jeanneau, A., Radford, D., Maier, H. R., and Zecchin, A. C.: Development and use of an integrated modelling approach to simulate dynamic risk profiles and support risk reduction strategies, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13897, 2023.

17:02–17:12

EGU23-8120

ECS

On-site presentation

A Machine Learning approach to support multi-risk assessment and climate adaptation planning in the Veneto region

Maria Katherina Dal Barco, Davide Mauro Ferrario, Margherita Maraschini, Ngoc Diep Nguyen, Remi Harris, Stefania Gottardo, Emma Tosarin, Sebastiano Vascon, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto

The analysis of extreme events that occurred in the last decades shows that these are often generated by multiple hazards, whose interactions are still to be fully understood. Moreover, the observation of their temporal trend suggests that their frequency and entity may be related to climate change. The growing impact that natural disasters and climate change have on people and ecosystems makes the ability to model and predict the relationships between multiple risks and their evolution over time a critical expertise.

The use of Artificial Intelligence for climate change adaptation can leverage advanced understanding of multi-risk dynamics, in order to support forward looking disaster risk management and system resilience thinking. Specifically, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms offer a new path to address the analysis of multiple risks due to their ability to model complex and non-linear interactions between different factors, without the need for an explicit modelling.

Here we present the design and development of a ML approach called INTELLIGENT multi-risk (i.e., InNovaTive machinE Learning methodoLogy to assess multi-rIsk dynamics under climate chanGe futurE coNdiTions), aimed at evaluating the impacts of multi-risk events at the regional (sub-national) scale, and predicting risk scenarios based on future climate change projections.

Taking as input hazard, exposure and vulnerability features from both historical observations and future projections, the INTELLIGENT multi-risk allows to: analyse the multi-hazard footprint at different spatio-temporal scales; identify the most influencing factors triggering multiple risks; estimate the effect of climate change on risks scenarios.

An initial application was developed in the frame of the Interreg ITA-CRO AdriaClim project to assess the risks of extreme weather events along the coastal municipalities of the Veneto region. The ML algorithm was trained, validated and tested with local impact records over the 2009-2020 baseline timeframe, and then used to project future climate risk for the timeframe 2021-2050, under the high-emission RCP8.5 climate change scenario. The results of the analysis for the training dataset show a F1-score value of 74% on balanced data, identifying sea surface height, temperature, precipitation, and wind parameters as the most important factors triggering risks in the Veneto coastal area. Nevertheless, the model has the potential to identify which are the coastal municipalities more exposed to multi-hazard events, both in the baseline and future scenarios, in order to support the definition of coastal adaptation strategies.

Future developments of the INTELLIGENT multi-risk approach are foreseen within the H2020 MYRIAD-EU project, where the analysis will be extended to the whole Veneto region, in order to consider additional hazards (e.g., heat waves, drought, wildfires), and analyze multi-risk dynamics across different landscapes (mountains, plains and coastal area), and sectors (finance, tourism, natural ecosystems). At the same time, the ML-based methodology will be used to better identify spatial and temporal footprints of the multi-hazard events and to model the impact of natural hazards and climate change on environmental quality indicators (i.e., water, air, and soil quality).

How to cite: Dal Barco, M. K., Ferrario, D. M., Maraschini, M., Nguyen, N. D., Harris, R., Gottardo, S., Tosarin, E., Vascon, S., Torresan, S., and Critto, A.: A Machine Learning approach to support multi-risk assessment and climate adaptation planning in the Veneto region, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8120, 2023.

Posters on site: Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X4

The posters scheduled for on-site presentation are only visible in the poster hall in Vienna. If authors uploaded their presentation files, these files are linked from the abstracts below, but only on the day of the poster session.

Chairpersons: Marleen de Ruiter, Silvia De Angeli, Stefano Terzi

X4.93

EGU23-717

ECS

Highlight

On-site presentation

A continental-scale multi-hazard analysis of economic recovery using nighttime light satellite data

Sophie L. Buijs, Marleen C. de Ruiter, and Philip J. Ward

Risk assessments and disaster management are generally approached from a single-hazard perspective, ignoring the spatial and temporal connections and feedback loops that are involved when consecutive disasters occur. Not only can the total impact of a multi-hazard event differ from the sum of the impacts of the individual events, but the response and recovery process can also be more challenging for multi-hazard events when compared to a single-hazard disaster. Depletion of financial and human resources after a first hazard may for instance increase people’s vulnerability at the time of a second event. This was demonstrated in northern Mozambique, where tropical cyclones Idai and Kenneth made landfall only six weeks apart, early 2019. Despite continued high needs and dependence on humanitarian aid after the second event, UN agencies and partners struggled to provide additional support, due to exhausted stocks and funds after their initial response efforts to Idai.

This study (that is part of the MYRIAD-EU project), focuses on post-disaster recovery, which is an often overlooked and misunderstood component of the disaster management cycle. A single-hazard approach to understanding recovery does not sufficiently reflect the complexity that is involved in multi-hazard events due to the potential feedbacks and interactions between hazards and their effects. While several recent studies have made efforts to improve our understanding of the relationships between single natural hazards and the recovery thereafter, recovery dynamics after multi-hazard events are still poorly understood. Additionally, the studies that have looked into recovery after natural disasters are often focussed on a single hazard type or limited set of extreme events in a specific region. To address this knowledge gap, this study sets out to compare economic recovery after multi-hazard events and single-hazard events on a continental scale.

Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Nighttime Light (VIIRS NTL) data (2013-2022) are used as a proxy for economic recovery. To characterize recovery after different single- and consecutive events, accounting for geological, meteorological, and hydrological hazards, monthly changes in night light intensity are computed. A comparison of the recovery profiles of single- and multi-hazard events will then result in an improved understanding of the different trends and dynamics that are involved with economic recovery after multi-hazard events. The results of this study can be used by policy-makers and aid organizations to improve their disaster management strategies. Moreover, the resulting characterisation of economic recovery after single- and multi-hazard events will support future research into the identification of socio-economic factors that affect the recovery in a multi-hazard context.

How to cite: Buijs, S. L., de Ruiter, M. C., and Ward, P. J.: A continental-scale multi-hazard analysis of economic recovery using nighttime light satellite data, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-717, 2023.

X4.94

EGU23-892

ECS

On-site presentation

A spatiotemporal indicator-based method to assess the drought and heat risks for urban green infrastructure

Raghid Shehayeb, Regine Ortlepp, and Jochen Schanze

Given the significance of urban green infrastructure (UGI) and their ecosystem services (ES) towards urban climate resilience and sustainable development, a practical method to assess the drought and heat risks for UGI is needed for understanding the risks, selecting reduction alternatives and protecting the benefits of UGI. Hence, this study develops a spatiotemporal indicator-based method, based on a conceptual drought and heat risk assessment framework, which supports decision makers in analyzing and evaluating risks under changing conditions, and selecting risk-reduction alternatives. The UGI types of parks, creeks, and lakes are selected as representative UGI for this study for developing the assessment method. Subsequently, endpoints as variables of the biophysical risk system are derived considering the processes of drought and heat hazards, exposed UGI entities, ecosystem functions and ES. The biophysical endpoints such as biota, soil-water dynamics, and UGI’s cultural uses, are then translated into information with descriptors explaining their vulnerability aspects following a multi-layer approach and interpreted over three dimensions of provisioning, regulating, and cultural. The multi-layer approach states that the layers of descriptors are accompanied with layers of indicators as a mean to operationalize these characteristics. A two-stage literature review is applied to identify vulnerability indicators for the defined descriptors, whereas a lane-based approach is followed to interrelate these indicators based on their qualities we refer to as attributes. Using the attributes of the drought and heat hazards, the vulnerability indicators are linked with the hazards to derive risk indicators. By introducing these vulnerability and risk indicators, we pave the road for the analysis and evaluation of compound risks to support the decision makers in planning and managing UGI and protecting their ES under these risks.

How to cite: Shehayeb, R., Ortlepp, R., and Schanze, J.: A spatiotemporal indicator-based method to assess the drought and heat risks for urban green infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-892, 2023.

X4.95

EGU23-2155

ECS

On-site presentation

EroCA: a new tool for simulating constructed landform erosion

Shahla Yavari, Neil McIntyre, Qi Shao, and Thomas Baumgartl

Extensive disturbances during the mining and rehabilitation process can include removal of vegetation, removal and storage of soils hence their modification, changes in topography, and planting of new vegetation. A main goal of mine rehabilitation is to produce a post-mining landscape that is resistant to geotechnical failure and to surface erosion processes. To achieve this, hydrology and erosion models are required to determine erosion rates under alternative landscape designs, including landscape form and cover options.

By critical review of the relevant literature, it was found that most previous erosion modelling studies have concentrated on surface hydrology in agricultural, forestry, and other natural systems, while disturbed ecosystems like mining regions have received little attention. Landscape evolution models have been developed for mined landform applications but modelling over long time-scales compromises the temporal and spatial resolution.

The main objectives of this research therefore were:

Extend an existing plot-scale hydrological model to plot-scale erosion model.
To improve knowledge of the errors and uncertainty in applying a high-resolution erosion model to mined landforms and to conclude on the potential applicability and limitations of EroCA.

The experimental data used in the research were from a 30 m × 30 m field plot on a mine waste rock dump in the wet tropical environment of the Ranger mine (north-east Australia) from the period 2009 to 2014. The new EroCA model is an extension to the RunCA model, which was developed to provide high resolution simulation of runoff and infiltration in constructed landforms. The extended model uses mass balance principles and established erosion and sediment transport models, covering both suspended and bedload, and solves the equations using the cellular automata approach. Code verification against analytical solutions of runoff and sediment illustrated small errors, which were partly due to approximations used in the analytical solutions. The EroCA model was then applied to the Ranger experimental plot data to assess the suspended and bedload erosion performance. EroCA was able to reasonably represent the observed flows and turbidity profiles. Although an arbitrary reduction in the erodibility parameter value of 20% per year was needed to simulate the bedload depletion.

How to cite: Yavari, S., McIntyre, N., Shao, Q., and Baumgartl, T.: EroCA: a new tool for simulating constructed landform erosion, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2155, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2155, 2023.

X4.96

EGU23-2413

On-site presentation

An operational tool for geo-hydrological scenario risk assessment and cascading effects evaluation

Daniela Biondi, Graziella Emanuela Scarcella, and Pasquale Versace

Building multiple, complex risk scenarios is a priority for the improvement of the effectiveness of early warning systems and technical countermeasure designs to detect phenomena associated with severe weather events, such as floods and landslides.

This study introduces CERCA (Cascading Effects in Risk Consequences Assessment), a methodology for the characterisation of event scenarios that is consistent with the current Italian Civil Protection Guidelines on the national warning system for weather-related geo-hydrological and hydraulic risks.

The aim is to propose a simple, effective, multiscale operational tool that can be adapted to multiple purposes. Specifically, the methodology frames the problem as a typical scenario analysis through the assessment of possible cascading effects and consequences characterised by a cause/effect relationship produced by a triggering event. The proposed conceptual framework for ‘cascade scenario’ assessment consists of four stages, referring to the characterization of:

Triggering Events,
cascading effects in terms of Representative Elementary Phenomena,
cascading effects in terms of Damaged Elements at Risk,
Fatalities Circumstances.

The CERCA approach can be effective:

in processing post-disaster information at the local level to identify site-specific dependencies based on local hazard proneness and exposure and vulnerability conditions as well as to prioritize countermeasures;
in supporting efficient surveillance of the real-time evolution of critical situations, helping operative structures of civil protection to update the picture of occurring phenomena;
in providing general dependency matrices to be used in the ‘ex-ante’ definition of scenarios and recurring cascading event trees, through analysis of several past events.

The methodology was assessed using a case study concerning a local event occurred in 2015 in the north-east of Calabria (Italy) and a back-analysis on 152 events in warning zones of the Italian territory that occurred during the period 2004–2021.

The first application aimed at illustrating CERCA functionality in describing cascading effects based on a post-disaster survey at a local level for a heavy rainfall event that caused flooding of various streams and widespread shallow landslides.

The national-scale back-analysis offered an overview of the chains generated by triggering events. The analysis showed that in over 50% of investigated cases, more than one triggering event was observed (most of the time floods accompanied by landslides), confirming the necessity for multi-risk analysis. ‘Pluvial flood’, particularly affecting urban areas, was the most frequent triggering event with 30%, mainly causing damage to basement or ground floor/yards of public and private buildings and to transport infrastructure. A detailed characterisation of the circumstances of death for 52 fatalities, further specified that the majority were flood-related fatalities (82%). Numerous people were affected outdoors along roads (35%) and travelling in vehicles (37%). Dependency matrices based on a frequency analysis, provided an overall picture of relations between different elements of the chain that, although limited to the number and type of investigated events, offers a preliminary assessment for further studies that could explore also the dependency from the severity of the forcing rainfall.

How to cite: Biondi, D., Scarcella, G. E., and Versace, P.: An operational tool for geo-hydrological scenario risk assessment and cascading effects evaluation, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2413, 2023.

X4.97

EGU23-2514

On-site presentation

The multi-hazard risk perception of young professionals and students in Geography and Tourism amid the Covid-19 pandemic

Mihai Ciprian Margarint, Sanja Kovačić, Andra-Cosmina Albulescu, and Đurđa Miljković

Multi-hazard risk perception represents a research subject that has been gaining momentum in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, based on the interaction between management practices aiming to reduce infection rates and to reduce the impact of other co-occurring natural hazards. The concurrent hazards proved to be the source of many hurtful, high-cost, but still invaluable lessons that should be capitalised on by the new generations to progress towards improved multi-hazard management strategies, and to a more sustainable, resilient and equitable society, as proposed by the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. However, such high-level orders cannot be obtained without an adequate understanding of the new challenges posed by multi-hazard risks.

This paper aims to investigate the multi-hazard risk perception of young professionals or students who follow education programmes that aim to develop knowledge and skills related to the very subject of perception (i.e., natural hazards and risks). Zooming in, the paper focuses on the specialization and study level-dependent differences concerning multi-hazard risk perception and hazard-related education insights of future potential specialists in natural hazard-induced risk management and tourism reconstruction. The most prominent research questions (What is the perception of the students and graduates regarding the extent to which the Covid-19 pandemic has amplified the impact of other risks ?, Are there differences in the perception of Geography/ Tourism students and graduates about the impact of different natural hazards on social and economic activities?), as well as secondary aspects of the inquiry were addressed by applying a multi-level questionnaire on 547 students and graduates of Geography and Tourism specializations from two universities in Iași City (Romania) and Novi Sad (Serbia).

The implementation of the t-test pointed out that the main specialization-dependent differences concerned the perception level of certain natural hazards at different sales, the estimation of the impact of different hazards on socio-economic activities (including tourism), and the estimation of the positive effects of hazard-related education. These differences are complemented by the ones that depend on the level of study, which were analyzed through ANOVA and referred the scale of the impact specific to biophysical hazards, the amplification effect of the pandemic on different hazard and vulnerability types, and the different education cycles that the Curriculum upgrade should be performed at. It should be noted that no statistically significant differences emerged between Geography and Tourism students and graduates regarding the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on training / career. On the other hand, Bachelor and Master level participants reported to be more affected by the pandemic than respondents from the highest tire of university education.

This study represents the first of its type, as it offers valuable insights on the multi-hazard risk perception of students and graduates that may acquire future decision-making, hazard-related research or teaching jobs. Understanding the opinions formed in their training years or in early-career stages provides important cues about tomorrow’s hazard management, and tourism reconstruction practices.

How to cite: Margarint, M. C., Kovačić, S., Albulescu, A.-C., and Miljković, Đ.: The multi-hazard risk perception of young professionals and students in Geography and Tourism amid the Covid-19 pandemic, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2514, 2023.

X4.98

EGU23-4825

On-site presentation

Compound Vulnerabilities in an Urban Setting: Impact of Floods on the Transportation Network in Istanbul

Irem Daloglu Cetinkaya and Özge Naz Pala

Urban areas, the core of socio-economic activity with high population density, are considered highly vulnerable to flood hazards. Istanbul, Turkey's most populated city with around 16 million inhabitants, and at the same time commercial, cultural, and social capital, was chosen as the study area. Istanbul is a metropolis that has grown under unplanned growth, particularly with rural to urban migration in the 1950s. A significant portion of the city's natural areas, stream basins and valleys have been replaced by concrete surfaces. This transformation not only brought societal challenges, but increased urban vulnerability to extreme events and hazards. As a coastal city that consists of two peninsulas, Istanbul is highly prone to flash floods from heavy rainfalls. Flood events intensely impair the municipal services (e.g., public transportation, water and sanitation, electricity distribution), consequently affect the operation of businesses and public services, and cause high economic losses as well as even deaths and casualties. Many of the highly vulnerable zones for floods already endure inadequate housing and transport access. This study aims to build a flood vulnerability index to identify the districts vulnerable to floods in the metropolitan area and assess the impacts of floods on households and transportation infrastructure. The developed vulnerability index incorporates socioeconomic and physical vulnerability components, while also closely examining key transportation infrastructure in highly vulnerable locations. Using the multi-criteria decision making approach, 9 different indicators of flood vulnerability were evaluated, then weighted by stakeholders and experts using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. This methodology is implemented to 100 year flood zones and 500 year flood zones to represent the potential impact of future climate change. The proposed assessment disclosed that 22% of the basin has low urban flood vulnerability while the extremely vulnerable and vulnerable zones together constituted approximately 40% of the total area. Approximately 75% of the road length (i.e., highways, main arteries, boulevards) and 20% of the public transportation lines (i.e., stations, railways, bus lines) across the basin are located in the vulnerable areas. The findings of the study have the potential to provide policymakers with up-to-date and detailed flood vulnerability assessments to serve as the foundation for their decision-making processes under flooding hazards.

How to cite: Daloglu Cetinkaya, I. and Pala, Ö. N.: Compound Vulnerabilities in an Urban Setting: Impact of Floods on the Transportation Network in Istanbul, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4825, 2023.

X4.99

EGU23-5301

ECS

On-site presentation

Multi-risk assessment due to global warming under the SSP climate scenario in the Republic of Korea

Insang Yu, Huicheul Jung, Dong-Kun Lee, Sung-Hun Lee, and Sung-Il Hong

Assuming that greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase as the current trend, the global average temperature is expected to rise by about 5.7°C by the end of the 21st century. High temperatures and heat waves will increase across East Asia, including in Republic of Korea, and extreme weather events, such as heavy rains and floods, will intensify and become more frequent. Even if carbon neutrality is achieved, losses may still occur due to the limited ability of humans and natural systems to adapt to higher global average temperatures. According to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), the global average temperature is projected to rise by 2℃ in 2036 (2022-2051, SSP126), by 3℃ in 2065 (2051-2080, SSP245), and it is forecasted to rise by 5.38℃ from 2070 to 2099 (SSP585). When the global average temperature rises by 1.5℃, Republic of Korea's average temperature rises by 0.34℃~0.75℃, a 2℃ increase by 0.82℃~1.01℃, and a 3℃ increase by 1.08℃~1.42℃. As global warming continues, it is analyzed that the difference between Korea and the global average temperature will become larger. Global warming in Republic of Korea is progressing faster than global warming, this will have serious repercussions in various sectors. It is necessary to comprehensively assess risks in various sectors and use the results to establish adaptation policy in order to prepare for damage caused by climate change in advance. This study provides information for comprehensive decision-making support by assessing and integrating climate change risks under the 2℃, 3℃, and end of the 21st century (Bau) scenario in health, energy, traffic, agriculture, forest, and water sectors. Key findings show the current (1985–2014) average annual number of days with heat wave warnings issued by the Korean Meteorological Administration is 6 days. This number is expected to increase to 29 days (+23 days) under 2℃ global warming and to 47 days (+41 days) under 3℃ global warming; it is expected to increase by a factor of 5-15 to 92 days (+85 days) by the end of the 21st century (BaU). The current average period of severe agricultural drought is 0.38 months per year. It will increase to 1.0 month (+0.64 months) under 2℃ global warming and to 0.8 months (+0.43 months) under 3℃ global warming; it is expected to increase to 1.6 months (+1.24 months) by the end of the 21st century (BaU), for a 1.1-4.3-fold increase. The results of the study is expected to contribute to the revitalization of global warming impact and risk assessment research by presenting the global warming period for each SSP scenario. It contributes to the establishment of scientific countermeasures linked to climate risks by predicting the risks of local governments due to global warming and analyzing the current status and characteristics of local governments' adaptation measures.

[Acknowledgement] This paper is based on the findings of the environmental technology development project for the new climate regime conducted by the Korea Environment Institute (2022-070(R)) and funded by the Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (2022003570004).

How to cite: Yu, I., Jung, H., Lee, D.-K., Lee, S.-H., and Hong, S.-I.: Multi-risk assessment due to global warming under the SSP climate scenario in the Republic of Korea, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5301, 2023.

X4.100

EGU23-6275

On-site presentation

Multi-hazard system of a high Alpine valley: construction of an event chronology from different sources

Louise Dallons, Florie Giacona, Nicolas Eckert, and Philippe Frey

Mountain regions are subject to highly damaging hydrological and gravitational hazards. This exposure is due to their biophysical and societal characteristics. It is essential for a sustainable management of these risks to consider the natural risk as the result of complex interactions within the risk system, which is composed of a natural and a societal subsystem. In this way, it is possible to adopt a dynamic approach to the risk system by placing the phenomenon in an evolutionary context. We can therefore consider its trajectory according to the socio-environmental dynamics that influence it.

Studying these risk systems over the long term is necessary to understand their evolution and to anticipate future ones in order to guarantee the sustainability of mountain socio-ecosystems, and requires an interdisciplinary approach between geography and history.

The study of the trajectory of a multi-hazard system is being carried out in the Commune of Vallouise-Pelvoux, a high Alpine valley in the Écrins massif, France. This territory was chosen because it is subject to various risks that occur over a wide range of altitudes, its recent socio-economic development is mainly based on tourism, and it is marked by glacial recession, but also because we were aware of the availability of several sources allowing the production of event and multirisk chronologies.

The first stage of the research consisted in the production of a multi-hazard event chronology over 420 years (1600-2020). This database was built from various resources. On the one hand, from existing databases produced by public services and organizations such as the French Forest Office (ONF) specifically the mountain land restoration service (RTM) or the departmental councils. On the other hand, archival research was carried out in the municipal archives of Vallouise-Pelvoux and the departmental archives of the Hautes-Alpes.

After analysis of all available sources, the data collected was processed in various ways. Indeed, sources of different forms and origins requires standardization of the information to make it comparable and usable. The chronology was also subjected to a critical analysis : are the sources authentic? Reliable? What factors might influence them?

Once this chronology of events in Vallouise-Pelvoux has been contextualized (changes in the natural and societal systems of the Commune), a first statistical analysis of the risks identified and the damage caused will be presented. In the future the data will be used to analyze the trajectory of the system.

How to cite: Dallons, L., Giacona, F., Eckert, N., and Frey, P.: Multi-hazard system of a high Alpine valley: construction of an event chronology from different sources, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6275, 2023.

X4.101

EGU23-7106

ECS

On-site presentation

Training risk managers in the climate change and energy transition narrative to avoid maladaptation to the emerging 21st century paradigm.

Jonathan Mille, Danielle Charlton, Marleen De Ruiter, Muki Haklay, and Stephen Edwards

As the effects of climate change intensify and energy supply issues become more prominent (ie: tackling the rise of CO2 emissions, conflict in Ukraine), the potential impacts of climate and energy variability on anthropogenic systems and question the ability of organisations to maintain their vital services and supply chains in the future.

However, there are many uncertainties surrounding climate change and the energy transition. As risk management is directly dependent on environmental conditions and energy supplies, it is necessary for risk managers to understand how these intertwined phenomena may alter current risk management strategies.

Although climate change is discussed and highlighted amongst the Disaster Risk Reduction community, the issue around the functioning of the energy system is not yet widely discussed and integrated into risk reduction strategies. This research focuses on assessing the perception of risk managers on environmental and energy risks in order to help them integrate climate change and the energy transition into risk management strategies. Our objective is to paint a picture of the global energy system and to integrate its future developments and limitations in order to prepare risk managers for the systemic changes of the 21st century.

How to cite: Mille, J., Charlton, D., De Ruiter, M., Haklay, M., and Edwards, S.: Training risk managers in the climate change and energy transition narrative to avoid maladaptation to the emerging 21st century paradigm., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7106, 2023.

X4.102

EGU23-7499

On-site presentation

SIGALE: An online early warning system for gravitational hazard (Savoie, France)

Héloïse Cadet, David Rouquet, and Anne Lescurier

The SIGALE (System of Information Geographic for grAvitational hazard vigiLancE assessment) project aims at developing an experimental early-warning system of gravitational hazard (landslides and rockfalls) over the road infrastructure network of Savoie (France). This network is about 3 300 km long.

We propose a new approach based on machine learning to predict a vigilance degree. The vigilance degree is a combination of susceptibility model and trigger model.

The landslide susceptibility model is based on topographical data, landcover and lithology. The rockfall susceptibility model is based on statistical results of propagation using Flow-R.

The trigger models have been trained on an event database of 863 landslides and 481 rockfalls events from 2008 to 2020. The database covers 13 years, so about 4 745 days, over about 6 000 sectors. The thousand events are spread over 28 millions of spatio-temporal sectors. The dataset is thus highly unbalanced and specific machine learning has been deployed. The trigger models features are based on rainfalls and temperatures.

Our results show that, in spite of the high class imbalance issues of such database, the trigger models provide recall values of about 75%, with about 60% of precision.

Our prototype is a web-service showing vigilance degree model for both landslide and rockfall with different zooming information for decision support.

How to cite: Cadet, H., Rouquet, D., and Lescurier, A.: SIGALE: An online early warning system for gravitational hazard (Savoie, France), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7499, 2023.

X4.103

EGU23-7782

ECS

On-site presentation

Multi-hazard risk assessment of extreme weather events in a changing climate

Zélie Stalhandske, Carmen Steinmann, David N. Bresch, and Chahan Kropf

Extreme weather events are among the most destructive natural hazards, affecting a large number of people and causing significant monetary damage globally each year. The impact of these events is increasing due to climate change and socio-economic development. While traditional approaches to risk assessment have focused on the impacts of single hazards, the combined risk of multiple hazards may be different from their sum. Their spatial and temporal co-occurrence may also be influenced by climate change. In this study, we develop a framework for modelling the combined risk of multiple climatic hazards, where risk is defined as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We illustrate this method based on globally consistent river floods and tropical cyclones and their impacts on both population and assets. Both hazards are driven by global climate models to investigate their risk at current and future levels of warming. The combined impacts are evaluated by aggregating single hazard models on an event basis, where events are driven by the same climate model outputs. This allows us to not only consider the average annual impact, but also for example to assess combined extreme events or return periods. Additionally, spatially and temporally compounding events can be analysed. This framework is implemented in the open-source climate risk platform CLIMADA and can be applied to different climate risks, providing a more comprehensive approach to understanding and managing the risks posed by extreme weather events in a changing climate.

How to cite: Stalhandske, Z., Steinmann, C., Bresch, D. N., and Kropf, C.: Multi-hazard risk assessment of extreme weather events in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7782, 2023.

X4.104

EGU23-11160

ECS

On-site presentation

Can we be precautionary with respect to all risks? A natural and health hazards perspective

Elena Raffetti and Giuliano Di Baldassarre

Understanding how individuals perceive risk of natural and health hazards can help policymakers, scientists, and clinicians to communicate risks. We show that individuals (as well as communities and institutions) cannot apply the precautionary principle to all threats, and thus we challenge the binary categorizations of risk takers vs. risk avoiders. To illustrate, we compared how people perceive the risk associated with natural and biological hazards in relation to the main preventable health-related risk factor – i.e. tobacco smoking by analyzing the results of nationwide surveys carried out in Italy and Sweden in August 2021. In particular, we compared smokers and non-smokers considering two domains of risk perception (likelihood and individual impact) for seven threats (epidemic, climate change, floods, droughts, wildfires, earthquakes and air pollution). Preliminary results show that: i) the risk perception of some threats is higher in smokers compared to non-smokers; and ii) this difference is mainly observed in a permissive tobacco environment. These results and their implications show the importance of integrating multi-risk components into risk communication, along with promoting policies that simultaneously address health and natural risks.

How to cite: Raffetti, E. and Di Baldassarre, G.: Can we be precautionary with respect to all risks? A natural and health hazards perspective, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11160, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11160, 2023.

X4.105

EGU23-12813

ECS

On-site presentation

Compound events of drought and salt intrusion in the Greater Bay Area and adaptation countermeasures

Xudong Li, Fang Yang, Huazhi Zou, and Sen Wang

Dongjiang River drains into the Pearl River Delta in China and waterworks near the delta serves as the main water supply source for cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, including Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hongkong. The basin experienced a severe drought in 2021, with the average streamflow in the downstream gauge reaching its lowest value since 1956. Meanwhile, the most important upstream reservoir, Xinfengjiang Reservoir, experienced a low water level operation period, with the water level declined below its dead water level in Jan. 2022. Coupling with weak river discharge, astronomical tides led to severe salt intrusion in the delta area. The compound events of drought and salt intrusion threatened the urban domestic water supply. According to scenario analysis, the water supply for about 20 million people would have been affected during Nov. 2021 and Jan. 2022 if no countermeasures had been adopted. Comprehensive countermeasures were carried out to prevent the extreme impacts from the compound events, which include engineering and non-engineering ones. The engineering ones include blocking the salt water with temporary batardeau and soft purdah into the water. And non-engineering ones include chlorinity monitoring and forecasting on the strength of in-situ gauges measurements and a three-dimensional baroclinic saltwater intrusion model. The model provided real-time chlorinity forecasting for the waterworks. The bias of peak chlorinity was less than 20%, and the bias of the peaking time was less than 2 h. The forecasting results supported decision making on timing of water intaking for the waterworks and other local water storage infrastructure. In addition, the water authorities carried out tiered prices and imposed limitations to high water use of some industrial water users. With all these strategies, the domestic water supply was well maintained across the compound events, which ended in Mar. 2022. The river basin authority played an important role in communicating the necessary information and coordinating all the countermeasures among associated stakeholders.

How to cite: Li, X., Yang, F., Zou, H., and Wang, S.: Compound events of drought and salt intrusion in the Greater Bay Area and adaptation countermeasures, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12813, 2023.

X4.106

EGU23-14233

On-site presentation

Mapping and characterisation of compound events in Sweden

Johanna Mård, Örjan Bodin, and Daniel Nohrstedt

Compound events have significant environmental and societal impacts and bring new challenges to decision-making, planning, and management. Meanwhile, knowledge about compound events and their impacts are limited. Sweden, while being prone to various climate-related natural hazards (e.g., storms, floods, wildfires) have no coherent information on where these events and their impacts have occurred in the past, and less so on compound events. Here we present a new cohesive natural hazards impact database for Sweden, including compound events, to advance our understanding of how these events have unfold during the last 50 years. The impact database consists of available data from multiple sources on past climate-related natural hazard events (e.g., databases and reports from governmental organizations, county boards, and scientific reports). These data have further been geocoded using a Geographic Information System (GIS) to generate an integrated natural hazards map. These two products will help provide knowledge on the spatiotemporal distribution of natural hazard events, including compound events in Sweden, and further advance our understanding of their underlying drivers, and aid ongoing work to effectively plan and prepare for these events.

How to cite: Mård, J., Bodin, Ö., and Nohrstedt, D.: Mapping and characterisation of compound events in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14233, 2023.

X4.107

EGU23-14325

On-site presentation

Operational assessment of landslide risks in the sprawling city of Bukavu (DR Congo)

Olivier Dewitte, Caroline Michellier, Toussaint Mugaruka Bibentyo, Sylvain Kulimushi Matabaro, Innocent Kadekere, Charles Nzolang, and François Kervyn

The expansion of informal and uncontrolled urban landscapes commonly overlooks the natural constraints from the environment. This is particularly true for urban environments affected by landslides. Landslide risk assessment relevant for urban planning and disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategy requires highly spatially-resolved datasets and approaches. It also requires that both physical and social local aspects of risk are studied in an interdisciplinary manner. Such assessment of hazard risk remains challenging and under-researched in many regions, especially in low- and lower-middle-income countries in the tropics, as it usually requires large and diverse datasets that are frequently unavailable or unreliable. In addition, specifically in urban contexts, human-induced environmental change impacts slope stability. Under these conditions of data-scarcity and land transformation, reliable and detailed landslide risk assessment encompassing the physical and societal aspects in an operational approach strongly relies on expert knowledge.

In this research, we assess the risks associated with landslides in Bukavu, a city located in the eastern DR Congo where urban sprawling is high and the problem of landsliding is particularly acute. Firstly, we compiled a comprehensive multi-temporal landslide inventory covering several decades using remote sensing, archives, field survey and interviews with key informants. From this inventory, we derived three hazard zonations with multiple scenarios that allow to consider the interactions between various landslide processes and the role of human activities. Secondly, we obtained detailed socio-economic data from a sample population survey in morphological areas determined by remote sensing. Within two months, 10 specifically-trained local interviewers counted and located nearly 44,000 inhabitants living in about 6,580 households, and collected socio-economic baseline data over 10,880 people from 1,614 households. These demographic data were used to determine the variations in population density (exposure) in the city. These data were also key for the vulnerability assessment. For this, we designed a contextualised vulnerability index capturing the various dimensions of vulnerability with a set of selected indicators aimed at facilitating understanding, replicability and updating of the data collection. By combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability, we produced three risk zonation maps at a very high spatial resolution with the potential to be used operationally: one for shallow landslides, another for deformation within landslides and one for reactivation of deep-seated landslides. The development of these maps, as well as the collection of field-based information were carried out in close interaction with the city authorities and various stakeholders (e.g. civil protection, local community leaders) involved in DRR. A specific effort of awareness raising was also made through the organisation of dedicated workshops and radio programmes, and the implementation of a disaster risk information centre in Bukavu.

How to cite: Dewitte, O., Michellier, C., Mugaruka Bibentyo, T., Kulimushi Matabaro, S., Kadekere, I., Nzolang, C., and Kervyn, F.: Operational assessment of landslide risks in the sprawling city of Bukavu (DR Congo), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14325, 2023.

X4.108

EGU23-16226

On-site presentation

Multihazard Analysis: Istanbul Microzonation Projects

Sema Kara, Kemal Duran, Deniz Yılmaz, Evrens Rıza Yapar, Muhammed Emin Karasu, and Betül Ergün Konukcu

Istanbul is located one of the most seismically active regions of the earth. For this reason the city has suffered damage due to earthquakes in its historical process. Three of them, occurring in 1509, 1766, 1894 respectively, seriously affected Istanbul and caused great loses around the city during the Ottoman period. 1509 Earthquake caused extensive damage to many mosques, buildings and some part of the city walls in Istanbul. 1509 Earthquake caused extensive damage to many mosques, buildings and some part of the city walls in Istanbul. Another destructive earthquake occured in the east part of the Sea of Marmara in 1766. Not only many houses and public buildings collapsed but also The Ayvad Dam located north of the Istanbul were damaged in İstanbul because of the 1766 Earthquake. Third major earthquakes took place in the Gulf of Izmit in 1894 and had adverse impact on Istanbul. On Augsut 17, 1999 The Kocaeli Earthquake with a magnitude 7.6 was the not only devastating but also deadly earthquake for Istanbul in recent years. Despite the approximately 110 km epicenter distance, 3,073 buildings suffered extensive damage, 11,339 buildings had moderate damage and 454 people died and 1880 people injured in Istanbul. Damages in Istanbul especially Avcılar and Büyükçekmece during Kocaeli Earthquake in 1999 raised and improved the awareness on disaster risk management since then several scientific and institutional studies has been conducted for the potential earthquake of Istanbul. Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) carried out two major geo-scientific studies called “microzonation studies” covering more than 700 km2 of Istanbul’s urbanized areas between 2006 and 2009. And then IMM has just started new microzonation project in order to complete remainder urbanization area of Istanbul consists of districts of Büyükçekmece, Beylikdüzü, Çatalca, Esenyurt, Küçükçekmece, Beşiktaş, Şişli, Sarıyer covering approximately 257 km². Esenyurt is the most populated district of Istanbul and the other districts host many Istanbulites. This project supports substantial hazard knowledges after the evaluation of geological, geotechnical and geophysical measurements in order comprehend these districts risk against the potential Istanbul earthquake,. In the end “Land Suitability Maps” are derived from the combination of inputs using multi-hazard approach. Microzonation results could be used in land development/use plans, hazard identification in urban transformation, determination of the routes and characteristics of various types of engineering structures for making city resilient.

How to cite: Kara, S., Duran, K., Yılmaz, D., Yapar, E. R., Karasu, M. E., and Ergün Konukcu, B.: Multihazard Analysis: Istanbul Microzonation Projects, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16226, 2023.

X4.109

EGU23-11291

ECS

On-site presentation

Evaluating Environmental Impacts of Flood-Induced Tank Failures: A Risk Chain Model for Soil and Groundwater Contamination in NaTech context

Riccardo Giusti, Marcello Arosio, Roberto Nascimbene, and Mario Martina

The European "Floods Directive" requires European River district authorities to create flood damage and risk maps, but the process of assessing flood damage is complex and lacks established methods. Flood risk assessment also requires an understanding of how industrial equipment is vulnerable to flood events and the potential for toxic releases in such scenarios. In this study a practical case is presented regarding multicomponent flood risks in the Secchia River catchment, a tributary of the Po River, and proposes a new risk chain model for evaluating the environmental impact of soil and groundwater contamination in the event of a flood caused by the failure of storage tanks containing hazardous materials. The model is demonstrated using an illustrative case and shown to be a useful tool for managing the risk of such events. Our methodology presents a multi-component model for assessing environmental risk resulting from technological accidents triggered by natural disasters. In particular, we focus on the failure of storage tanks containing hazardous materials due to flooding. The proposed method first evaluates the probability of tank failure under defined flood conditions, including flood height, velocity, and probability of occurrence. To simplify the analysis, we consider all tanks to be unanchored atmospheric storage tanks. The final output of the method for each tank is a monetary estimation of the hypothetical costs for environmental remediation after tank failure, including the contamination of soil and groundwater by the spilled liquid. Our methodology proposed a conservative approach by assuming that all stored liquids are contaminants and by using a fixed value for the density of the stored liquid.

To evaluate the probability of tank failure, it has been considered four types of failure dynamics: buckling, displacement, floating and overturning. The tank failure assessment is based on our recent study that developed vulnerability different dynamic models for unanchored steel atmospheric tanks. Our methodology not only evaluates the probability of tank failure during flood events, but also analyses the potential consequences of failure, including direct damages to the tank and costs associated with recovering the spilled product and mitigating contamination in the affected area. The results of this study can be used to develop strategies for minimizing the risks of tank collapse during flood events and to increase awareness of potential NaTech risks. The ultimate goal of this study is to create a comprehensive procedure for evaluating and comparing the dynamics of tank collapse during flood events, including the potential environmental consequences, and providing risk managers with a full understanding of the risks associated with tank failure during flooding, including potential NaTech risks.

How to cite: Giusti, R., Arosio, M., Nascimbene, R., and Martina, M.: Evaluating Environmental Impacts of Flood-Induced Tank Failures: A Risk Chain Model for Soil and Groundwater Contamination in NaTech context, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11291, 2023.

X4.110

EGU23-16521

ECS

On-site presentation

Resilient Istanbul against the evolving challenges

Betül Ergün Konukcu, Sema Kara, Deniz Yılmaz, and Kemal Duran

Cities are increasingly faced with the complexities, the uncertainties, local and global challenges. These problems make pressures on the life of cities and cause direct, indirect, tangible and intangible damages on physical structure, natural environment, social fabric, cultural heritage and economic situation of the cities. In order to make cities resilient against these pressures, it is substantial to improve skills to cope with these difficulties and strengthen coping capacity of urban elements. Istanbul is one of the oldest cities in the world. The city, hosted many civilizations with its 8500 year history, has dealt with the earthquakes, epidemics, floods, fires, water shortages, economic crises throughout its historical process. Istanbul with more than 16 million population is still trying to struggle against the challenges based on natural events and climate change, the consequences of irresponsible urbanization, socio-economic and cultural stresses and environmental problems. This study reveals Sustainable Resilence Strategy of Istanbul with Sustainable Development Goals against to current and evolving acute shocks and chronical stresses by taking lessons from the past, forecasting future challenges, risk reduction, supra disciplinary and interdisciplinary studies, holistic approach, shared decision making with multiple criteria , competent planning, manageable systems, resource management, funding capability, alternative strategy formation capability, reserve capacity, ensuring coordination between systems, increasing adaptive, absorbing and transformation capacity, providing continuity, developing national and international cooperation.

How to cite: Ergün Konukcu, B., Kara, S., Yılmaz, D., and Duran, K.: Resilient Istanbul against the evolving challenges, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16521, 2023.

X4.111

EGU23-16828

On-site presentation

Modelling compound flooding events for multiple hazards mapping: an example from Sweden.

Faisal Bin Ashraf, Marlon Vieira Passos, and Karina Barquet

Globally climate change has increased exposure to multiple hazards. In Sweden, 10-year events of precipitation and streamflow have started to cluster around the summer months for most of the country. However, Sweden's south and west coasts are especially vulnerable to river flooding events caused by extreme sea surges during the winter. This national-level analysis needs to be combined with detailed local assessments to quantify the hazard properly, its potential impacts and cascading effects. In response to this need, we explore the impacts of multiple hydrometeorological (i.e., weather and water) events that happen simultaneously or close together in Halmstad. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of climate change on the intensity and frequency of these hazards by focusing on extreme – low likelihood but high impact – events. Due to its geographical location, Halmstad is particularly vulnerable to flooding risks. Wind and waves combine to make the city vulnerable to flooding and storm surges. That confluence triggers extreme local sea level rise, resulting in high sea levels in Halmstad compared to nearby coastal towns. These compound flooding events in Halmstad are expected to increase in future climate scenarios. We will simulate multiple scenarios of compound flooding events with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The model's values used as boundary conditions will be based on computed joint return intervals for fluvial flooding and extreme sea surge. This study can not only be used to support local adaptation strategies but will also contribute to the body of knowledge on the issue of compound flooding events in a changing climate. Local-scale assessments like this one are necessary for a nuanced understanding of the possible impacts of multiple hazards on society. At the same time, societies' dependency on critical infrastructure and vital societal services is increasing due to growing system complexity and interconnectedness. Together, these shifts will likely increase societal vulnerability and impact adaptive capacity.

How to cite: Ashraf, F. B., Passos, M. V., and Barquet, K.: Modelling compound flooding events for multiple hazards mapping: an example from Sweden., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16828, 2023.

X4.112

EGU23-16861

On-site presentation

A spatial analysis of the relevance of community organizations as an insurance against the economic and environmental vulnerability of Colombian cacao producers.

Sonia Quiroga, Cristina Suárez, Virginia Hernanz, and Jose Evelio Aguiño

The future of replacing illicit crops with cocoa in the South-Pacific region of Colombia goes far beyond the economic viability of these plantations. The process of social and ecological restoration (SER) that this process implies is intrinsically linked to the role of local organisations and the support of international non-governmental organisations, which are introducing the main technical improvements conditional on the achievement of social improvements. Here we analyse the situation in the South-Pacific region of Colombia, a territory traditionally dominated by illicit crops, inhabited by vulnerable Afro-American communities, and where post-conflict agreements are having a special relevance due to the high level of violence. This paper analyses the determinants of differences in the selling price of cocoa, assuming that the decision to be able to sell cocoa dry and access international markets is directly related to the support received by farmers. To be able to obtain a sustainable production of quality dry cocoa, the main requirement for accessing international market prices, is conditioned by access to adequate infrastructures. And, without access to this higher quality production, the substitution of illicit crops does not seem viable, and with it the environmental sustainability and social cohesion of the territory. Therefore, we analyse the determinants of farmers' ability to sell dry cocoa: percentage of cocoa damaged by pests, the pressure of violence. To do so, we use spatial econometric models, as these have been found to be more appropriate than other types of models. And we show that increasing the participation of producers in community councils supported by international NGOs is fundamental to achieving a better cocoa price.

How to cite: Quiroga, S., Suárez, C., Hernanz, V., and Aguiño, J. E.: A spatial analysis of the relevance of community organizations as an insurance against the economic and environmental vulnerability of Colombian cacao producers., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16861, 2023.

Posters virtual: Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | vHall NH

The posters scheduled for virtual presentation are visible in Gather.Town. Attendees are asked to meet the authors during the scheduled attendance time for live video chats. If authors uploaded their presentation files, these files are also linked from the abstracts below, but only on the day of the poster session. The button to access Gather.Town appears just before the time block starts.

Chairpersons: Marleen de Ruiter, Stefano Terzi, Faith Taylor

vNH.8

EGU23-154

ECS

Virtual presentation

Challenges for assessing the risk of compound extremes

Ravi Kumar Guntu, Bruno Merz, and Ankit Agarwal

The effects of compound extremes (for example, Compound dry hot extremes (CDHE)) in a region simultaneously are more adverse than those of individual dry or hot events. The likelihood of such events depends on the marginal distribution of drivers and their dependence. An approach to assess CDHE probability is urgent because of their frequent occurrence caused by global warming. This study shows how CDHE probability changes with the selection of reference period. We considered the WMO recommended period 1961-1990 and a recent climate normal 1991-2020 to show the effect of the reference period on the likelihood. We applied the framework to homogenous regions of India during the monsoon season. Insights show that CDHE is more likely to occur in arid regions than in other climatic regions. The results of this study are useful for further exploration and provide new insights into the emerging changes in CDHE.

How to cite: Guntu, R. K., Merz, B., and Agarwal, A.: Challenges for assessing the risk of compound extremes, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-154, 2023.

vNH.9

EGU23-2811

ECS

Virtual presentation

Assessment of flooding impact on water supply systems: a comprehensive approach based on DSS

Bianca Bonaccorsi, Silvia Barbetta, Stavroula Tsitsifli, Ivana Boljat, Papakonstantinou Argiris, Jasmina Lukač Reberski, Christian Massari, and Emanuele Romano

The assessment of flood impact on a Water Supply System (WSS) requires a comprehensive approach including several scales of analysis and models and should be managed in the Water Safety Plans (WSP), as recommended in the EU Water Directive 2020/2184. Flooding can affect the quality of groundwater and surface water resources and can cause supply service interruption due to damaged infrastructures. A complete approach to address flood impact on WSS is required but is not yet available, while only specific aspects were investigated in details.

In this context, the MUHA project, funded by the European INTERREG V-B Adriatic-Ionian ADRION Programme 2014-2020, developed a comprehensive tool named WAter Safety Planning Procedures Decision Support System (WASPP–DSS). The tool is mainly addressed to small water utilities (WU) for supporting WSP development and is based on two main premises: 1) a correct approach for WSS risk analysis requires a multi-hazard perspective encompassing all the system components and different hazards; 2) other institutions in addition to WUs have to be involved in WSS risk analyses to harmonize monitoring and response procedures.

The tool was tested on six pilot areas of the ADRION region considering four hazards: drought, flooding, accidental pollution and damage to infrastructure due to earthquakes. In this work, the tool is demonstrated for flooding impact analysis in three pilot areas: the Ridracoli reservoir in Italy and two municipalities, Larissa in Greece and Zadar in Croatia. The WASPP–DSS, tested by eight WUs, was found a potentially valid support for small WUs that must start drafting the WSP in a comprehensive way and can provide a common shared scheme.

Improvements are desirable, as including a specific section to consider the issue of loss of water resources from reservoirs due to overflow.

How to cite: Bonaccorsi, B., Barbetta, S., Tsitsifli, S., Boljat, I., Argiris, P., Lukač Reberski, J., Massari, C., and Romano, E.: Assessment of flooding impact on water supply systems: a comprehensive approach based on DSS, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2811, 2023.

vNH.11

EGU23-13325

Virtual presentation

Multi-hazard analysis of abandoned coal-mines

AL Heib Marwan

Nowadays, most of the coal mines in Europe are already closed or are in a state of liquidation. However, the problem of abandoned coal mines and their influence on the environment remains central for the mining industry and coal regions in transition. After the end of the exploitation, many disturbances can occur. Mines operators, local authorities and decision makers are confronted with multi-hazard and risks related to mine closure. Land use planning and adequate site rehabilitation requires better tools to deal with the multiple hazards and constraints.

The objective of the study is to improve risk assessment by establishing a new methodology to assess the interaction between hazards related to old mines, and no longer treat them separately.

Mining hazards concern: ground movements, hydrological hazards, self-heating, soil and water pollution. One hazard can trigger another one. Different tools are presented such as a global matrix, a fault tree, etc. for identifying the hazards interaction. The hazard interaction matrix has been constructed, figure 1 shows in particular the interactions that the phenomena in the columns (source phenomenon) can have with the phenomena in the rows (target phenomenon). The matrix also provides information on the levels of interaction: no known case of interaction between phenomena (white colour), Low (yellow), Medium (green) and High (red). These assessments are based on feedback and in-depth discussion between experts. This approach is a first tool to help mining and development actors to understand these interactions and improve mitigation and management measures.

How to cite: Marwan, A. H.: Multi-hazard analysis of abandoned coal-mines, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13325, 2023.