Dengue in India: association with weather and socioeconomic variables
- 1Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Environmental Science and Engineering Department
- 2Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Department of Mathematics
- 3Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Inter Disciplinary Program in Climate Studies
- 4Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Koita Centre for Digital Health
Dengue, the most prevalent arthropod-borne viral infection, is endemic to 100+ countries. Dengue transmission is highly sensitive to climatic and meteorological conditions such as temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, as indicated by the association between increased climatic suitability and expansion of regions at risk. In India, dengue is endemic to all 28 states and eight union territories, with a gradual shift historically observed in their spatial distributions from urban to rural areas. The rising burden due to its frequent outbreaks causes an unprecedented burden on the economy and the health system. Thus, in order to formulate adequate strategies for mitigating dengue risks in future, it is essential to study the patterns in dengue transmission and the influence of meteorological/climatic variables. The present study aims to understand the spatiotemporal variations in dengue cases and the effect of weather parameters on dengue outcomes across India over the past 15 years. State-wise annual data on dengue cases and deaths during 2007 - 2022 was collected from the National Vector-borne Disease Control Programme. India reported more than one million dengue cases and 2,712 deaths for the period, with the highest cases observed in 2021. 73% of the total cases occurred between 2016 and 2022, indicating increased dengue outbreaks across the country. Overall, the case fatality was 2.1 (per 1000 cases), the highest seen in 2007 (12.5). The northern region, with eight states and UTs, reported the highest case count contributing 28% of the country’s caseload. Positive anomalies in the maximum temperature (against a 15-year annual average) were observed from 2012 to 2019, while minimum temperature had negative anomalies – the effect of the same on dengue cases and mortality is being examined along with the effect of socioeconomic differences across the states.
Figure 1 Spatial distribution in dengue cases and deaths across India between 2007-2022. The red dots indicate the deaths.
How to cite: Sam, A. K., Mukhopadhyay, S., and Phuleria, H. C.: Dengue in India: association with weather and socioeconomic variables, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5666, 2023.
