Impacts of the 2018–2019 Central European drought in North-Eastern Germany

The 2018–2019 drought was probably the most severe in Central Europe since the first half of the 16th century. What effects were caused in North-Eastern Germany including the capital city region and the driest part of the country where sandy soils predominate? This is illustrated using both observations from the environment and data from statistical offices.

A couple of indicators – SPEI (meteorological drought), SMI (soil moisture), GGI (groundwater), SSI (streamflow), and PPI (plant physiology) – show the drought propagation from meteorology into the eco-hydrological system. Soil moisture and plant physiology showed decreasing tendencies already before 2018 when the study region was challenged by massive crop yield losses (−40% for maize compared to the 2012–2017 yield average). Forest trees suffered with delay – drought-triggered bark beetle attacks caused emergency logging and forest diebacks especially in spruce trees still in 2021.

Agriculture and forestry represent only about 1% of the regional economy (measured by gross value added), and drought effects were hardly noticeable in industry and service sectors, though. This is in remarkable contrast to the economic shocks caused by the 2008–2009 global financial crisis and the recent pandemic which left their marks in the economic time series. The question remains whether the apparent stability of the regional socio-economic system against extreme drought can still be maintained in the next decades with higher probabilities for extreme events.