Influence of geomagnetic activity on the wintertime electricity consumption in Finland via Northern Annular Mode

Geomagnetic activity is driven by the variable solar wind and is often used as an indirect measure for energetic particle precipitation (EPP) from space into Earth’s atmosphere. A growing number of studies has shown that geomagnetic activity via EPP can intensify the wintertime polar vortex in the stratosphere by forming ozone-depleting nitrogen and hydrogen oxides through different chemical reactions, which then influence the atmosphere’s radiative balance and dynamics. The polar vortex variations also influence the ground weather and project onto the variability of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which describes the prevailing pressure pattern in the Northern hemisphere and is the most important factor influencing the winter weather, e.g., in Northern Europe. A stronger (weaker) vortex is associated to positive (negative) NAM phase and tends to cause warmer and wetter (colder and drier) winter weather in Scandinavia and Northern Eurasia. Recent studies have also shown that the EPP influence on the polar vortex and NAM is strongly dependent on the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal winds.  When QBO-winds at 30 hPa pressure level are easterly the EPP influence on the polar vortex and NAM is stronger.

It is known that prevailing weather conditions have a huge effect on wintertime electricity consumption, e.g., in these Northern European regions, notably in Finland and Scandinavian countries. During cold weather more electricity is consumed for heating purposes while the opposite is true during milder winter weather.

The EPP-related influence on winter time climate variability implies a new and so far unexplored connection by which space weather and space climate affects the modern technological society. In this study we consider this question for the first time and quantify the influence of geomagnetic activity on the inter-annual variations of wintertime electricity consumption in Finland from 1980s until present also taking into account of the phase of the QBO. We first demonstrate that the wintertime electricity consumption in Finland depends strongly on Finland’s average temperature. We then show that geomagnetic activity has a strong influence on Finland’s wintertime average temperature via the polar vortex and NAM variability. We then show that during easterly QBO phase the geomagnetic activity has a clear and statistically significant influence on the wintertime electricity consumption in Finland and can explain a large fraction of its inter-annual variability. During westerly QBO phase such influence is not observed.