EGU23-647, updated on 14 Nov 2023
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Understanding the role of climate change in disaster mortality: Empirical evidence from Nepal

Dipesh Chapagain1,2, Luna Bharati3, Reinhard Mechler2, Samir Kc2, Georg Pflug2, and Christian Borgemeister1
Dipesh Chapagain et al.
  • 1Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
  • 2International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
  • 3International Center for Water Resources and Global Change (ICWRGC), Koblenj, Germany

Climatic disaster impacts, such as loss of human life as its most severe consequence, have been rising globally. Several studies argue that the growth in exposure, such as population, is responsible for the rise and the role of climate change is not evident. While disaster mortality is highest in low-income countries, existing studies focus mostly on developed countries. Here we address this impact attribution question in the context of the Global South using disaster-specific mixed-effects regression models. We show that the rise in landslide and flood mortality in a low-income country Nepal between 1992-2021 is attributable primarily to the increased precipitation extremes. An increase in one standardized unit in maximum one-day precipitation increases flood mortality by 33%, and heavy rain days increase landslide mortality by 45%. A one-unit increase in per capita income decreases landslide and flood mortality by 30% and 45%, respectively. Population density does not show significant effects.

How to cite: Chapagain, D., Bharati, L., Mechler, R., Kc, S., Pflug, G., and Borgemeister, C.: Understanding the role of climate change in disaster mortality: Empirical evidence from Nepal, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-647,, 2023.