How will Solar Radiation Modification affect Cropland Suitability in West Africa?

Cropland suitability, a process of evaluating the capability of a piece of land in relation to the growing conditions of a given crop, is highly essential for agricultural planning. Projected changes in the future climate are expected to significantly affect the agricultural sector, notably agricultural production which include cropland suitability. Although, previous studies have shown Solar Radiation Modification (SRM), which involves the injection of sulfur into the stratosphere to reduce insolation of the sun and cool the planet, could mitigate the impact of climate change (hereafter GHG) on agricultural production, however there is still a lack of understanding on how Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) intervention (an SRM technique) will affect cropland suitability in West Africa. The present study examines the impact of GHG and SAI on Legumes (Cowpea, Soyabean and Groundnut) and Root and Tuber (Cassava, Potato and Yam) suitability and planting season over West Africa. The Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensembles (GLENS) simulation for the historical, GHG and SAI experiments for the period 1980-2009 and 2060-2089. Ecocrop, a crop suitability model was used to investigate the impact of GHG and SAI on the over West Africa owing to their economic importance to the region. Our findings shows while SAI offset the impact of GHG on temperature it leads to a reduction in rainfall over West Africa. Crop suitability decreases northwards over the region. SAI intervention will lead to an increase (over 12%) in highly suitable area for Cassava and Potato compared to GHG but leads to 3% decrease compared to historical period. In contrast, SAI results in decrease (6%) in suitable area for Legumes when compared to GHG impact over West Africa. In addition, SAI intervention will lead to a 1-2month early planting season for all legumes crops and Yam over West Africa but delay of about 2months for Cassava and Potato. The study will assist to improve our understanding on SAI intervention at mitigating GHG impact on Legumes and Root & Tuber crop production over West Africa. It will also help inform policy maker in their decision making of adaptation strategies to ensure food security and zero hunger and healthy nutrition in West Africa.