Structural patterns and states of stress at the Hengill Triple Junction, SW Iceland: implications for fluid-injection induced seismic hazard

The Hengill region is one of the largest areas of high geothermal gradient and subsurface heat flow in Iceland, and hosts two of its largest geothermal power plants: Hellisheiði and Nesjavellir, which have a combined capacity of 423 MWe and 560 MWth. The Hengill region is located in a unique tectonic setting, characterized by the convergence of three plate boundary segments: the oblique-spreading Reykjanes Peninsula (RP), the orthogonal-spreading rift of the Western Volcanic Zone (WVZ) and the transform, South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ). Unlike most tectonic triple junctions, which occur on the ocean floor, the Hengill Triple Junction (HTJ) is exposed above sea level, thus providing a unique opportunity to study the interplay between three plate boundary segments and the local deformation processes occurring at their convergence site. Additionally, the injection of fluids due to on-going geothermal operations enhances the natural tendency of the region for seismic activity, and results in a significant level of induced seismic hazard. Because slip on pre-existing faults is triggered when the applied shear stress surpasses the frictional strength of the fault, regions that are naturally subjected to higher shear stresses are more prone to fault re-activation due to fluid re-injection. Therefore, a spatial variation in tectonic stresses may result in varying induced seismicity potential within a region.

The local interplay of the three converging tectonic regimes, and their effect on the stress fields within the triple junction region, has been examined through a combination of regional structural mapping and a numerical model of the plate boundary interactions using the Boundary Element Method (BEM). Large scale structural mapping and analytical models of oblique rifting were used to estimate the degree of rift obliquity for individual fissure swarms. Our results reveal that the transition from the highly oblique rift system of the RP towards the spreading-orthogonal rift of the WVZ is smooth, and manifests as a rotation of the trend of fissures and eruptive ridges, and the strike of normal faults formed in response to the local stress field developed in the HTJ. These results were then correlated with those from the BEM model, which allows us to predict the orientation, relative magnitude, and distribution of stresses within the study area. Finally, the shear stress distribution determined from the BEM model was plotted against the location of both natural and induced seismic events detected in the region over a time span of 26 months, by the COSEISMIQ project (Grigoli et al., 2022). Our results show that seismic events cluster in either at the triple junction or SW of it, within the highly stressed regions of the RP. Furthermore, the seismicity transitions from scattered to non-existent towards the north of the region, where shear stresses also diffuse. The good correlation between the high shear stress regions predicted by the model and distribution of seismicity suggests that this approach may provide a valuable and cost-effective tool for seismic hazard prediction within regions with complex tectonic settings.