Trade-driven relocation of Greenhouse gas emission in India

The green revolution enhances crop yield, significantly contributing to many low-income countries' socio-economic development. However, increasing crop yields might raise crop residue burning, leading to adverse human health and environmental consequences. Recent studies show that international trade affects the global distribution of Agricultural Greenhouse Gas (AGHG) emissions, air pollution, and public health. Domestic Interstate Trade (DIT) has similar effects on AGHG within the country but has yet to be comprehensively investigated. Large-scale open burning of crop residue further contributes to severe haze pollution in Indian cities, affecting national climate goals. Given the critical importance of food security, further reducing AGHG remains challenging. While there has been an increasing focus on AGHG, limited attention has been paid to its consumption-based drivers. We found that DIT exacerbates the health burdens of air pollution in Indian states based on regional wind patterns. Here, by tracing the consumption-based accounting of emissions, we evaluated the consequences of agricultural DIT on the emission potential of India. Our preliminary results show that though residual crop burning pollutes nearby regions, it is driven by consumption-based demands. These results suggest that DIT structure readjustment according to emission losses is needed for India while targeting trade intensification strategies. Our findings are relevant to national efforts to reduce emission losses in India.