Global diets consume tremendous natural resources while causing multiple environmental and health issues. As the world faces challenges of adequate nutrition security with concomitant climate and environmental crises requiring urgent action, policies need to improve the efficiency of devoting environmental input of the food systems for health benefits. Here we evaluate the global transition of such efficiency in the past two decades represented by health benefits obtained by per unit of 4 key environmental inputs (GHG emissions, stress-weighted water withdrawal, acidifying emissions, and eutrophying emissions) in 195 countries. We find that the efficiency of each environmental input follows an N-shaped curve along the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) gradient representing different development levels. The efficiency first increases by benefiting from the eliminated stunting with a larger abundance of food supply, then decreases driven by climbing environmental impacts from a shift to animal products, and finally starts to slowly grow again as countries shift toward a healthier diet. Our efficiency indicator offers an improved understanding of nutritional transitions in terms of environmental impacts and a useful way to monitor the transition of dietary patterns, set up policy targets, and evaluate the effectiveness of specific interventions.

How to cite: He, P., Liu, Z., Hubacek, K., Baiocchi, G., and Guan, D.: Efficiency of dietary sustainability and its global transition, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2393, 2023.

Eating more fruits and vegetables lowers risk of non-communicable diseases. Globally, people are not eating the recommended amounts of these foods; consumption must increase to improve human health. However, in general, areas of cropland are associated with lower biodiversity than natural land (e.g., forests and grasslands). Converting natural land to cropland for agriculture therefore risks biodiversity loss which, in turn, risks lowering crop yields because biodiversity supports food production via pollination and pest control. Herein lies a trade-off. As the world seeks to eat more healthily, more fruits and vegetables will be produced to meet demand. Here, we share our research into this trade-off between healthy diets and biodiversity conservation.

To quantify the biodiversity pressure associated with healthy fruit and vegetable crops, we made use of freely available data on: species distributions (IUCN, 2013); fruit and vegetable production, yield, and harvested area (Monfreda et al., 2008); and international trade of fruits and vegetables (FAOSTAT; Dalin et al., 2017). Previous research into cropland-biodiversity relationships has typically grouped land-cover types into ‘cropland’ and ‘natural land’, without considering the impacts of specific crops on biodiversity (except for major commodities, like cocoa, and staples, like maize). We have developed a new suite of biodiversity-pressure metrics for specific crops which can be measured globally. These metrics enable us to quantify the species potentially impacted for each unit of crop in both a consumer country and its trade-partner countries. The new measures facilitate quantitative comparisons among specific crops and countries for the first time. Using these new measures, we compared the biodiversity pressures associated with the production and consumption of 54 different fruits and vegetables. We mapped the origin of crops consumed in the UK, South Africa, and India, and quantified associated biodiversity pressures relative to food produced and imported.

Contrary to previous research considering the relative impacts of food crops on climate change and water resources, biodiversity pressure due to fruit production is not always higher than that due to vegetables. The most important factors associated with increased biodiversity pressures include the country of production and the amounts being produced. We did not identify a single suite of crops standing out as particularly unsustainable across all three focal countries. This is significant, as it emphasizes the importance of trade in influencing sustainability. For some crops, domestic production would have a lower biodiversity pressure than importing from trade partners (e.g., UK-grown tomatoes). In such cases, the domestic production of fruits and vegetables should be promoted in conjunction with biodiversity-friendly farming practices. In other cases, domestic production of a crop is associated with a higher biodiversity pressure than the crop’s biodiversity pressure when produced overseas (e.g., UK-grown cherries). Our findings are particularly important in the context of changing trade patterns since the early 2000s, where countries like the UK have been increasingly sourcing fruits and vegetables from abroad. Our results could therefore inform policies aimed at tracing the environmental impacts of food-supply chains in the UK, India, and South Africa.

How to cite: Chapman, A., Dalin, C., Bonetti, S., Green, R., Hadida, G., Mabhaudhi, T., and Scheelbeek, P.: Healthier diets, healthier planet? Quantifying the biodiversity pressure of fruit and vegetable consumption in South Africa, India, and the UK, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7963, 2023.

Many of the key feedstuff, such as oilseed meals or fishmeal, used in livestock and aquaculture production are highly traded commodities in global agricultural markets. The dependence on these imported inputs creates vulnerabilities to the production countries when disturbances on global trade flows occur. Increasing the feed use of the available food system by-products offers a solution to decrease the dependency and increase food system circularity and resilience. In this global study we combine trade data from various sources of the material flows in feed trade and estimate for the first time the potential to replace the imported feeds with a more efficient use of food system by-products from domestic production. The results highlight the materials and areas with most potential to guide and inform decisions when looking for solutions in the transition towards more sustainable food systems.

How to cite: Sandström, V., Kummu, M., and Schwarzmueller, F.: The potential to increase resilience by replacing feed imports with domestic food system by-products, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11440, 2023.

Animal foods play an important role in human nutrition providing essential micro and macronutrients. In addition, animal-source foods cover 16% of the global food supply, so contribute to global food security. However, livestock consumes about 70% of the global agricultural land and one-third of the freshwater available for agriculture, thus fueling the debate on the competition between the food and the feed sector for the use of increasingly scarce natural resources. Several studies suggest that more efficient management in the food system can reduce competition and increase the global food supply without further pressure on resources. Here we propose a strategy consisting in the replacement of energy-rich food-competing feeds, such as cereals and tubers, with agricultural by-products and residues. Thus, we analyze both the current impact on land and water use for animal-source foods and the natural resources (i.e. land and water) saving associated with the replacement. To this aim, we collected data on regional feed use and the potential replacement of these feeds with actually available by-products and residues. Then, the collected data are combined with countries-specific crop yields and a dynamic spatially distributed and physically based agro-hydrological model to analyze the difference in the land and water use between the current baseline condition and the substitution scenario. Considering the replacement of five major cereals and cassava estimated to range between 11% to 16% of their feed use, the potential amount of fertile land and green water volume that could be saved ranges from 10% to 14%, while from 11% to 17% for the blue water volume. While Eastern Asia and North America would reduce their energy-rich feed crop consumption the most, would be Southern, Eastern, and South-Eastern Asia, and Eastern Europe that would benefit the most from the use of agricultural by-products and residues to save land and green water resources. As far as blue water is concerned, the highest savings are expected to occur in Asia, where cereal production is traditionally irrigated, although linked to unsustainable water withdrawals. Furthermore, the effect of trade on the consumption of natural resources, namely virtual land and water trade, is also explored, with feed crop production relocated through virtual resource flows. While Eastern Europe, Northern America, and South America appear as net land and green water exporters, Eastern and Western Asia and Southern Europe appear as net importers, and Western Europe, instead, as both an importer and exporter region through feed trade. On the other hand, Asia and Northern America appear to be net freshwater exporters. As the demand for livestock products grows over the next half-century, any strategy aimed at curbing the demand for primary commodities and making the food system more resilient has the benefit of reducing environmental impacts on both local and distant areas of the world but also the trade dependency of countries, in a time where global food security is threatened by several factors.

How to cite: Govoni, C., D'Odorico, P., Pinotti, L., and Rulli, M. C.: Usage of by-products and residues of the food system in livestock diets leads to savings in global land and water resources, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15056, 2023.

Some nations and regions, such as the European Union (EU), use food ingredients and agri-food products that are not produced within their borders while being essential for their food security and food systems. This product flow through international trade means that these regions are connected to water resources outside their borders. It also means they create subsequent environmental and social effects in the original production locations, a phenomenon called ‘cross-border impacts”.  For example, these imports can be a substantial part of existing problems of water depletion and pollution in producing regions since every step in the food system such as growing, harvesting, transportation, production, packaging, and retail consume and pollute water. Furthermore, agricultural production in exporting regions provides the lion’s share of greenhouse-gas emissions from the food systems.

This study first maps the cross-border environmental footprints of agri-food systems in Europe (water and carbon footprints) along the supply chain of major imported agri-food products from Africa. Second, it determines the vulnerability of these agri-food systems to climate change. Third, it identifies potential solutions to minimize the vulnerabilities and environmental impacts of the agri-food systems that are connecting Europe and Africa.

The study shows that the cross-border environmental impact of European agri-food systems on Africa is largely related to imports of oranges, potatoes, grapes, tangerines, and tomatoes. For example, the water footprint of this trade is approximately 5 km3 per year.  These products originate from water-scarce areas such as North Africa (Egypt, Morocco) and South Africa. Furthermore, climate change will reduce water availability in these regions, e.g., 20% less water is expected in North African countries by 2050.

Minimization of food loss and waste along the supply chain of the Europe-Africa trade is investigated as a potential solution to reduce the environmental footprint of this trade. It is found that around a 30% reduction in water footprint can be achieved by eliminating food waste at the consumer level in Europe. Further reductions in environmental impacts can be achieved if manufacturing and transportation losses are minimized as well, up to 10% and 20% reductions in the water footprint and carbon footprint, respectively. Another solution to reduce the footprint of agri-food systems is to source relevant products locally instead of importing from Africa. This option significantly reduces carbon footprints (up to 60%) but not much for water footprints (around 10% reduction). For some food items such as oranges, more water can be saved if they are imported from Africa rather than locally produced in Europe.

This study concludes that the sustainability of agri-food systems has a cross-border dimension, which is mostly neglected in national policies of sustainable production and consumption. The sustainability of such imported agri-food products can be understood by assessing their environmental impacts at production locations. Improving production efficiencies at exporting regions (e.g., reduction of production losses and waste) and minimizing waste of these products at consumer levels can help reduce the environmental consequences of this trade and help achieve our sustainability goals.

How to cite: Ercin, E., D’Haeyer, B., Nolet, C., Alkaya, E., Mahsunlar, D., Pilevneli, T., and Capar, G.: Cross-border environmental impacts of agri-food systems and potential solutions towards sustainability: a case study of trade between Europe and Africa., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16316, 2023.

The evolving international conflicts have a rippling effect on global food security, forcing nations to impose new trade laws to increase their domestic supply at reduced prices and promote the need to develop local and regional food systems to reduce transboundary dependence. While aiming to become a major global food supplier, India faces significant domestic food security risks. India has achieved food security through injudicious fertilizer application on the domestic front. Past agricultural policies, while primarily focusing on maximizing production, paid less attention to their environmental consequences. India feeds 17.1% of the world's population, with 10.7% of the world's arable land: this will further increase with increasing national and international food trade. Sustainably feeding the growing population has garnered considerable attention; however, its national implementation still needs to be improved. The current intensive agricultural practices operate at low water, nutrient, and nutritional efficiencies, demanding high input for high output. As a result, Nitrogen, Phosphorus losses are high, and groundwater resources are depleting in some areas. The vexing question is how to produce sufficient food in the existing regions with minimum inputs and reduced environmental impact. For this, India must reconfigure its current cereal crop production and interstate crop distribution system by reducing nutrient pollution losses, greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption while sufficing its increasing nutritional demand. Using a state-of-the-art framework from agricultural sciences, network, and resource optimization, our study provided ways toward national assessment of Indian staple crop system redesign for future sustainable intensification.  Further, by incorporating interstate trade within this restructured system, we try to understand how India's cereal crop redistribution will impact domestic food security. Thus to limit the environmental burden of the growing consumer demand, we optimized crop distribution and domestic trade patterns within the parameters of minimizing nitrogen and phosphorus losses. This realistic multi-dimensional framework will help India and other nations identify sustainable food security solutions. 

How to cite: Bhatia, U., Goyal, S., and Kumar, R.: Restructuring the Indian agricultural system toward sustainability and lower environmental costs, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5975, 2023.

Providing healthy food from a sustainable food system, while satisfying the demand of a growing population, is one of the major challenges of the century.  The limited agricultural land and water represent the main boundaries to meet the food demand of a growing population (Davis et al., 2014, 2017). Moreover, availability of natural freshwater is expected to furtherly decline in future due to climate change (Rodell et al., 2018) – especially in arid regions – and, thus, there is an urgent need to reshape the agricultural system to sustainably feed a global population approaching 9 billion people in the next century (Godfray et al., 2010).

Food security in the Nile Basin is strictly related to the availability of freshwater resources, which are increasingly threatened by climate change and future demographic trends. Currently, food production is insufficient to meet the population food demand, and all Nile countries are currently net food importers. Healthy food is also needed to address malnutrition within the poorest rural communities in the Nile countries. Countries in the Basin are highly affected by undernourishment - linked low dietary energy - iron-deficiency-induced anemia and diabetes. The agricultural sector is the largest consumer of the Nile waters and, thus, the state of the food system has profound implications for attaining water security in the Nile Basin (NBI, 2020).

In this study we suggest a sustainable agricultural strategy to enhance sustainable a food system within the Nile River Basin. We couple the WATNEEDS hydro-agrological (Chiarelli et al., 2020) model with a linear optimization algorithm to reshape the current cropland with the aim of producing more healthy food, with several benefits for the ecosystem (e.g., reduced irrigation water consumption) and human health. Cropland redistribution can be coupled with agricultural intensification and diet shift generating, at the meso-scale, benefits in terms of irrigation water savings and increase in food self-sufficiency. We first evaluated the amount of irrigation water and the crop production related to the current crop distribution and second, we identified potential differences in food production and water consumption between the current and optimized crop distributions. We use the WATNEEDS model to quantify spatially distributed crop water requirements, - namely blue and green water requirements - which are the volumes of water needed to compensate crop water losses through evapotranspiration. Our results show that crop redistribution increases food availability and, thus, the percentage of population sustained sustainably with the local agricultural production, reducing the pressure on the currently available renewable freshwater resources of the Nile.

How to cite: Sardo, M., Rulli, M. C., and Chiarelli, D. D.: Sustainable agricultural strategies to address limited freshwater availability and meet food demand in the Nile River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15582, 2023.

Food loss and waste is increasingly becoming a topic of great public concern: in 2011, FAO presented the estimate that around one third of the world’s food was lost or wasted every year and SDG 12 (“Sustainable consumption and production”) from Agenda 2030 includes among its targets to “halve per capita global food waste” and to “reduce food losses”. The impact on environmental resources is significant: in particular, 24% of total freshwater resources used in food crop production are lost in the different stages of food loss and waste. While in high-income countries food is mainly wasted at the consumer level, low-income ones record losses concentrated in the agricultural and post-harvest stages. Globally, food markets are telecoupled and globalized, so wasted food has effects on water resources in the whole supply chain, propagating along the trade network up to the countries of initial production, where water resources have been utilized, often through irrigation, altering the local hydrological cycle. The reconstruction of such network is one of the most challenging aspects of tracing the impact of food waste on water resources. The difficulties are due to the numerous food re-exports and nested supply chains, to the different origins of food waste (from production to distribution and consumption), and to the marked variability of the country-specific unit water footprints. As a key hypothesis, we assumed that in each country the ratio between imports and domestic production would be the same in both domestic consumption and exports, to cope with re-export feedbacks in the network. Focusing on the emblematic case of wheat and its derivatives (e.g., flour, bread, pasta), we were able to reconstruct the complex global network that connects losses and wastes at any stage along the supply chain with the corresponding wasted water resources.

Our results show that, for most countries, the network is very extensive and involves many states around the world. For example, in 2016 over 20 foreign countries employed their water resources to produce wheat which in turn was wasted as bread in Italy at the consumer level, accounting for around 15% of the bread’s water footprint (870 m³/t).  This highlights how much water resources are now globalized and that the waste of food in a country can impact even very distant water resources. We also quantify the contribution of each waste component, from agriculture’s field losses to consumers’ household wastes. For Italy, 54% of losses related to bread are at the consumption stage, while only 6% occur at the agricultural stage. Eventually, we present how the relative importance of each component varies, depending on the network of countries involved in the production, storing, processing, distribution and consumption of food.

How to cite: Semeria, F., Laio, F., Ridolfi, L., and Tuninetti, M.: Tracing the water footprint of food losses the in trade network: the case of wheat, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12478, 2023.

Crops consume the majority of green and blue water worldwide which, in many areas, affects water availability and state of ecosystems. Hence, it is important to understand the recent dynamics in crop water footprints (WF, m³ t^-1). Here, we analyse the global WF of more than 150 crops during 1990–2019 simulated with a global gridded crop model ACEA at 5 x 5 arc minute resolution. Our results indicate the overall decreasing trends in unit WF across all crop groups. However, these reductions are insufficient to curb the increase in total water consumption, which is mostly driven by the growing demand for oil crops. The WF dynamics vary among regions due to a combination of multiple environmental and socio-economic factors. Thus, it is possible to identify key challenges and opportunities in WFs of crop production. Addressing them may benefit water and food security while making the global food system more sustainable.

How to cite: Mialyk, O., Booij, M. J., Hogeboom, R. J., and Berger, M.: Key trends and opportunities in water footprints of crop production, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1556, 2023.

Agriculture is a key to the Zambian economy, contributing 20% to the country’s GDP and 12% to the national export earnings. However, climate change has a negative impact on Zambian agriculture production. In line with its Vision 2030 to have an efficient, competitive, sustainable and export-led agriculture sector, Zambia is aiming to improve irrigated agriculture through large investment in irrigation. Considering climate change and variability, it is important to adopt best water and nutrient management practices for sustainable use of agricultural resources. Maize being the major staple crop of Zambia, a study was carried out to improve irrigation management by optimizing water and nitrogen use efficiency for maximum maize productivity at field level under varying water and fertilizer applications. To achieve this goal, our study used and adapted nuclear (neutron probe) and isotope (¹⁵N and ¹³C) techniques to the Zambian agro-ecological conditions. Drip irrigation was used as the targeted system. The experiment was implemented based on three water application levels, i.e., deficit (50% and 75% Evapotranspiration) versus optimal (100% Evapotranspiration)and three nitrogen (N) levels (140 kg.ha^-1, 112 kg.ha^-1 and 84 kg.ha^-1, widely practiced being 112 kg.ha^-1). Maize was grown as a sole crop, under drip irrigation, in rotation with a legume over the dry season of Zambia in 2021 and 2022. For both years, maize yield was ranging between 2 and 7 ton.ha^-1. Results showed that deficit irrigation can be practiced without a significant negative impact on yield (with higher N levels showing significantly higher yields under deficit irrigation) and nitrogen use efficiency. The total N yield and agronomic water use efficiency were significantly higher, up to 1.5 and 3 times respectively, under deficit irrigation as compared to the optimal. Intrinsic water stress (d ¹³C results) was higher, though not statistically significant, under deficit irrigation. Thus, considering climate change and sustainable use of resources, deficit irrigation should be considered as the option to achieve higher yield and food security.

How to cite: Mwape, M., Said, H., Phiri, E., Heiling, M., Dercon, G., and Resch, C.: Understanding the interaction between maize water use efficiency and nutrient uptake in irrigated cropping systems, a basis for predicting and improving Zambia’s productivity in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6729, 2023.

Despite widespread attempts to ‘eat local,’ many of the lifestyle factors in the Global North rely on the production of agrifood commodities that can only be grown in tropical ecosystems, far from the dominant geographies of consumption. Chocolate, coffee, and palm oil represent a handful of consumer goods that are described as ‘tropical forest risk commodities,’  whose production threatens some of the last remaining biodiversity hotspots and stable carbon sinks. This research assesses the trade-offs between dominant approaches to poverty reduction in tropical forest landscapes – regions where global land use change is concentrated as forests are converted to agrifood commodity production areas to produce consumer goods that are core to global food systems. After Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana is the second largest exporter of cocoa (the main ingredient in chocolate). Ghana’s economy is highly cocoa-dependent, and cocoa provides livelihoods for about a quarter of the population, especially in rural areas where alternative incomes are limited. Although the cocoa sector contributed an estimated US$2.71 billion in government revenues in 2017, many cocoa producers live below the national poverty line.

Policy responses to balance the trade-offs between global food production, climate change, and socioeconomic development have recently come to the fore in Ghana – the world’s second largest producer of cocoa. In 2019, the Government of Ghana introduced the Living Income Differential (LID), which requires buyers to pay an additional US$400 per ton of cocoa on top of the floor price. With low farmer incomes identified as a critical driver of multiple sustainability issues in Ghana’s cocoa sector, this differential is meant to be directly transferred to cocoa farmers in response to the persistent challenge of poverty in cocoa farming communities. Using the Q methodology, we engaged over 50 stakeholders from various levels (international policy experts, cocoa sector stakeholders in Ghana, and cocoa farmers) to understand how LID is perceived, including its potential to transform the rural poverty complex embedded in Ghana’s cocoa supply chain. While the LID is lauded for increasing producer price across the board, our findings indicate that the lack of regard for farmer diversity (i.e., tenure rights, sharecroppers, and caretakers), farm size, and land management strategies (agroforestry versus clearing forest to establish farms) risks undermining the ability of this pricing mechanism to reduce farmer poverty as a way to foster sustainability in the sector. Further, the LID is siloed from on-going sustainability governance efforts in the sector, such as zero deforestation cocoa. If the LID is delivered to farmers across the board without any quid pro quo for how cocoa is produced, the policy’s unintended consequences may include increasing deforestation in the short term, while lowering the world market price of cocoa in the long term as cocoa supply increases. We conclude with policy implications on why different perspectives matter in managing sustainability trade-offs in deforestation frontiers. This study provides important insights for understanding how to achieve multiple sustainability goals together.

How to cite: Carodenuto, S. and Adams, M.: Sustainability trade-offs for equity and climate interventions in global food systems: The case of cocoa in Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3940, 2023.

Coffee is one of the most important agri-food systems from a global economic point of view. Most of the production takes place on small and medium-sized farms and is the main source of income for many rural families in several developing countries. Areas suitable for coffee production are very biodiverse and ecologically important, thus negative impacts should be minimized.
Coffee production requires special environmental and climatic conditions. Current and future climate changes could cause problems for a sustainable production and result in lower yields. To overcome these problems, it is necessary to investigate the effectiveness of possible adaptation measures, such as intercropping with other tree species that can provide more shade to coffee plants and favour environmental sustainability. 
In order to study how such modifications could improve the resilience and sustainability of coffee production, the use of process-based models can be very useful. The DynACof model was developed specifically to simulate coffee farming systems, including phenological development, physiological processes related to flower and fruit production, carbon allocation, the effect of water availability, light and temperature, as well as management. We tested the DynACof model on some study areas in Mexico, Brasil and Rwanda and verified that the yield predictions were in line with the observations. We then developed a modelling tool where the model can be applied to entire geographical areas in a spatially explicit manner, using global climatic and soil datasets.
We used this tool to simulate yields in Latin America and Africa, both for the period 1985-2014 and for the period 2036-2065 using climate projections. Comparing the two periods, the model predicts a decrease in yields of about 28% in Latin America and about 12% in Africa. We then simulated specific management options (e.g. agroforestry shading vs intensive monocropping) to assess their efficacy in enhancing environmental sustainability and resilience to climate risks. These impact analyses will be crossed with socio-economic indicators for a more comprehensive climate risk assessment to support adaptation recommendations.

How to cite: Della Peruta, R., Mereu, V., Spano, D., Marras, S., and Trabucco, A.: Coffee Agrosystems and Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15681, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15681, 2023.

Extreme weather often causes crop losses with sharp fluctuations in agricultural prices, which imposes negative impacts on sustainable agricultural development. Greenhouse farming is regarded as an effective measure against extreme weather. Thus, it requires a better understanding of the growing complexity of agri-food systems involving greenhouse environmental and societal tradeoffs under climate variations. Considering high energy consumption of greenhouses, this study aims at adopting machine learning with IoT-big data mining to innovatively develop a smart greenhouse environmental control service model under the nexus between meteorology, water, energy, food, and greenhouse environmental control while exploring pathways to low-carbon greenhouse cultivation. The proposed model will be applied to greenhouses in Taiwan for evaluating cross-sectoral synergies and environmental benefits. The results are expected to support greenhouse owners and authorities to make the best use of resources of water, energy, and food through the optimal environmental operation on greenhouse cultivation under extreme climatic events for achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) and move towards green economy.

How to cite: Hsia, I.-W. and Chang, F.-J.: Machine Learning-Enabled Smart Greenhouse Environmental Control Service Model, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6494, 2023.

The threats to crop yields are projected to increase under climate change and one of the most promising adaptation measures is for farmers to adjust their crop varieties over time to minimize climate risk. An improved or modern variety is a new variety of a plant species which produces higher yields, higher quality or provides better resistance to plant pests and diseases while minimizing the pressure on the natural environment. Selecting best maize varieties for various sites is also a good agricultural practice that can increase current yields in many low-productivity areas.  In this study, we aimed at identifying the climate change buffering potential of improved maize varieties using a spatialized DSSAT model using a case study across Uganda. We calibrate the model with observed weather data and then replace the weather files with climate projections from the ISIMIP3b. Model evaluation showed that the model performance was satisfactory with a correlation  coefficient (r) of 0.89, coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.79, index agreement (d) of 0.83 with observed yields. The impact of climate change on maize yield show spatial and temporal disparities with general trends showing that they worsen with time (2030 to 2090) and scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6 to SSP3-RCP7.0). At the national level, we project a yield loss of 6.2% (SSP1-RCP2.6) and 4.4% (SSP3-RCP7.0), by around 2030, 8.6% (SSP1-RCP2.6) and 14.3% (SSP3-RCP7.0) by around 2050, and 8.8% (SSP1-RCP2.6) and 26.8% (SSP1-RCP7.0) by around 2090. Switching to an improved variety results in at least double the maize yield under current climatic conditions (113.2%) compared to the current varieties, with maize yield exceeding 10 t/ha in the south-western, western and eastern parts of the country.  This positive yield effect was realized across all grids but substantially varied from around 10% to 500% yield change. Comparing the effect of climate change with an improved variety versus with a conventional variety shows it is always better to use an improved variety under climate change (positive effect), especially under worse case climatic conditions(2.9% and  8% yield buffering by 2090 under  SSP1:RCP2.6 and SSP3:RCP7.0 respectively) at national level. We therefore conclude that improved maize varieties offer a more durable solution to adapt to climate change and seed systems should therefore be strengthened to increase access to improved maize varieties for farmers.

How to cite: Chemura, A., Arumugum, P., Awori, E. K., and Gornott, C.: Elucidating climate change adaptation potential of improved maize (Zea mays L.) varieties with crop modelling, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15686, 2023.

The global production of vegetable oils exceeds 200 million tonnes per year, with almost 40% for food use, and around 330 M hectares occupied by oil crops. The most produced is palm (40% if palm kernel oil is included), followed by soybean oil (28%), rapeseed oil (12%) and sunflower oil (9%). Some of these oil crops, particularly oil palm plantations and soy cultivations, are among the main drivers of global land use changes (LUC) and deforestation. In particular palm oil has been one of the most highly criticized due to the link between oil palm cultivation expansion and the loss of primary tropical forests, observed in recent decades. This issue has generated two different responses in the food sector: some players decided to produce and/or use deforestation-free palm oil. Other actors chosen to replace palm oil with other vegetable oils, such as soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil.

Considering the importance of a proper land management in view of the food-ecosystems-resources nexus, this study assesses the potential LUC and the related GHG emissions that can occur by using sustainable palm oil or replacing it with the other oils for food use. 

A methodology was developed to assess the potential GHG emissions from the LUC due to alternative oil crops expansion at detrimental of high carbon content areas, such as forests or perennial croplands, and the GHG emissions from the production process though a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA).

Under the scenario of 100% replacement of palm and palm kernel oil globally, the extra-land needed to produce the additional alternative oils was determined in their three top producer countries using yield data from literature. An expansion algorithm considering suitability and distance from roads and existing oil crops was developed to determine the potential LUC which may occur in the selected countries. The potential GHG emissions from deforestation and other LUC were calculated from the carbon stock data of the FAO Forest Resource Assessment and IPCC; the field production of the four oils was reconstructed to calculate anthropogenic GHG emissions using relevant LCA existing databases. 

Results show that deforestation-free palm oil is the less impacting in terms of GHG emissions per oil ton thanks to its far highest oil yield. Replacing sustainable palm oil with any other alternative oil is never a favourable solution (Fig. 1), entailing a potential GHG emissions increase from 0.94-0.96 Mg CO₂  per ton of palm oil replaced by sunflower oil produced in Ukraine or in Russia (where deforestation is unlikely), to 4.38 Mg CO₂ per ton of palm oil replaced by soybean oil produced in Brazil, up to 13.65 Mg CO₂ per ton of palm oil replaced by soybean oil produced in Argentina.

Figure 1. GHG emissions in Mg CO₂eq t^-1 from LCA (blue bars) and LUC (green bars) with 100% palm oil replacement. Based on national trends and forest policies, potential deforestation can be likely (full green), likely with limitation (dense dots), likely with offset (oblique lines), unlikely (scattered dots). Vertical lines for palm oil include deforestation.

How to cite: Chiriacò, M. V., Galli, N., Santini, M., and Rulli, M. C.: Risk of deforestation and potential greenhouse gas emissions from vegetable oils’ expansions for food use, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10063, 2023.

Higher food prices arising from restrictions on exports from Russia or Ukraine have been exacerbated by energy price rises, leading to higher costs for agricultural inputs such as fertiliser. Using a scenario approach with a global land use and food system model (LandSyMM), we quantify the potential outcomes of increasing agricultural input costs and the curtailment of exports from Russia and Ukraine on human health and the environment.  We show that, combined, agricultural inputs costs and food export restrictions could increase food costs by 60-100% from 2021 levels, potentially leading to undernourishment of 60-110 million people and annual additional deaths of 400 thousand to 1 million people if the associated dietary patterns are maintained. In additional to lower yields, reduced land use intensification arising from higher input costs would lead to agricultural land expansion of 130-349 Mha by 2030, with associated carbon and biodiversity loss. The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices is larger than that from curtailment of Russian and Ukrainian exports. Restoring food trade from Ukraine and Russia alone is therefore insufficient to avoid food insecurity problem from higher energy and fertiliser prices. While the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been a welcome development and has largely allowed Ukraine food exports to be re-established, the immediacy of these issues appears to have diverted attention away from the impacts of fertiliser prices. While fertiliser prices at the start of 2023 have come down from the peaks of mid-2022, they remain at historically high levels.  Our results suggest the costs and lower crop yields achieved through reduced fertiliser use will drive high food price inflation in 2023 and beyond. More needs to be done to break the link between higher food prices and harm to human health and the environment.  

This study demonstrates how modelling can be used to explore the complexity and interlinked nature of the globalised food system and to quantifying the trade-offs and synergies for health and environmental outcomes of difference scenarios.

How to cite: Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Henry, R., Maire, J., Rabin, S., and Rounsevell, M.: Energy and fertiliser price rises are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6434, 2023.