Future evolution of the snowpack in the Iberian peninsula

The mountains of the Iberian peninsula host seasonal snowpacks in various environments, from mediterranean climate in the Sierra Nevada to alpine climate in the Pyrenees. This range of conditions is expected to result in different, but largely unknown, sensitivity of the snowpacks to the ongoing and future climate change. We modeled the snowpack in five sites which were selected over the peninsula for their environmental importance as indicated by their national park status. We downscaled the EURO-CORDEX meteorological forcings on a 250 m grid and forced SnowModel to obtain an ensemble of spatialized snowpack simulations over the historical period (1970-2005) and a projection period (2005-2100) considering different RCP scenarios. The accuracy of the simulation was evaluated with satellite snow cover images and in-situ measurements. The general decrease in snowpack impacts the hydrological cycle temporality and the frequency of snow droughts in the basins but is modulated by the varying climatic conditions between the study sites.