HS2.1.6 | Mountain hydrology under global change: monitoring, modelling and adaptation
EDI
Mountain hydrology under global change: monitoring, modelling and adaptation
Convener: Marit Van TielECSECS | Co-conveners: David Haro Monteagudo, Andrea Momblanch, Santiago Beguería
Orals
| Tue, 25 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 2.44, Wed, 26 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 2.44
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 26 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Hall A
Posters virtual
| Attendance Wed, 26 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
vHall HS
Orals |
Tue, 16:15
Wed, 10:45
Wed, 10:45
Despite only representing about 25% of continental land, mountains are an essential part of the global ecosystem and are recognised to be the source of much of the world’s surfaces water supply apart from important sources of other commodities like energy, minerals, forest and agricultural products, and recreation areas. In addition, mountains represent a storehouse for biodiversity and ecosystem services. People residing within mountains or in their foothills represent approximately 26% of the world’s population, and this percentage increases to nearly 40% when considering those who live within watersheds of rivers originated in a mountain range. This makes mountains particularly sensitive to climate variability, but also unique areas for identifying and monitoring the effects of global change thanks to the rapid dynamics of their physical and biological systems.
This session aims to bring together the scientific community doing hydrology research on mountain ranges across the globe to share results and experiences. Therefore, this session invites contributions addressing past, present and future changes in mountain hydrology due to changes in either climate and/or land use, how these changes affect local and downstream territories, and adaptation strategies to ensure the long-term sustainability of mountain ecosystem services, with a special focus on water cycle regulation and water resources generation. Example topics of interest for this session are:
• Sources of information for evaluating past and present conditions (in either surface and/or ground water systems).
• Methods for differentiating climatic and anthropogenic drivers of hydrological change.
• Modelling approaches to assess hydrological change.
• Evolution, forecasting and impacts of extreme events.
• Case studies on adaptation to changing water resources availability.

Orals: Tue, 25 Apr | Room 2.44

Chairpersons: Marit Van Tiel, Andrea Momblanch
16:15–16:20
16:20–16:40
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EGU23-1408
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solicited
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On-site presentation
Daniel Viviroli

Mountain hydrology faces a number of specific challenges, such as the high spatial variability of conditions and processes in horizontal and vertical dimension, and the comparatively low density and limited representativity of hydrometeorological observation networks. Vít Klemeš (1990) characterized these challenges very pointedly when he noted that mountainous areas, despite their hydrological importance, represent “some of the blackest black boxes in the hydrological cycle”.

In the meantime, our knowledge about mountain hydrology has improved considerably, although the challenges can still be characterized as greater than for most lowland regions. Also, global hydrological models have become a research field in their own right since the time of Klemeš’ statement, and even though these models face similarly increased challenges in mountain regions, they can be useful for studying mountain regions and their water resources in a larger context. In addition, valuable information can be extracted from an overview of regional studies, as has been done, for example, in the mountain-specific parts of the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate and the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

This contribution will discuss a comprehensive view from the mountains looking downstream, with a focus on the importance of mountain water resources for the lowlands.

Reference

Klemeš V, 1990. Foreword. In: Molnár L, ed. Hydrology of Mountainous Areas. Proceedings of a workshop held at Strbské Pleso (Czechoslovakia), June 1988. IAHS Publication 190, IAHS, Wallingford, ISBN 0-947571-42-6, p. 7

How to cite: Viviroli, D.: Mountain water resources and the importance of looking downstream, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1408, 2023.

Mountain hydrology: transition zones
16:40–16:50
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EGU23-982
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ECS
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On-site presentation
David Luttenauer, Sylvain Weill, and Philippe Ackerer

Hydrological models are currently used to simulate the water cycle at the catchment scale using climatic forcing. For water management purposes, one of the most important components to be determined is drainage. The estimation of drainage into an aquifer is directly related to the water input (precipitation), the outputs through evaporation and transpiration, and water flow dynamics in the unsaturated zone. The output fluxes are difficult to estimate through direct measurements and are often estimated using mathematical models build on climatic processes and data. Amongst the climatic data that are used, solar radiation is a key parameter since it estimates the energy available for open surface or soil evaporation and plant transpiration. Solar radiation can be computed directly knowing the sun’s position, provided by satellite surveys (with a spatial resolution down to 6x6km2 and a time resolution of one hour) or interpolated from values measured at meteorological stations. Values based on observations should be preferred because direct computation is strongly biased due to the effects of weather conditions (cloud for example). In mountainous regions, the orientation of the hillslope regarding the sun's position can strongly impact the amount of solar energy arriving on the canopy or the soil.

The questions we address in this communication are the following: when applying physically based hydrological models to mountainous regions, is it really necessary to consider the potential sky obstruction due to the mountainous terrain of each grid cell to assess solar radiation? By rebound, does this strongly impact the estimation of evapotranspiration and water drainage to the aquifer?

To answer these questions, a mixed methodology that relies on two steps is proposed and tested. The first step consists of a theoretical computation of solar radiation for each grid cell of a given Digital Elevation Model using GIS tools. The second steps aim at correcting the first step computations to be consistent with measured or satellite data. For the first step, the (Scharmer, Greif 2000) model - which computes the 3 components of global radiation (direct, diffuse, and reflected by surrounding surfaces for clear sky conditions) – is used. The model also considers the local terrain to estimate the sky obstruction. In the second step, the data are averaged at the scale of the prescribed data (satellite or interpolated) and linearly corrected with a proportionality coefficient so that the average computed value fits the prescribed average value.

This methodology is then applied to a water catchment in the Vosges Mountains located close to Strasbourg (France). The proportionality coefficient varies locally between 0.2 and 2.5 showing that the local impact of topography on radiation is very significant. Using this correction coefficient in the Penman-Monteith formula, the relative difference in evapotranspiration is respectively -80% and +180% from the mean value for shaded areas and sunniest areas. For water drainage estimated through a conceptual model, the relative differences vary from -20% for the most exposed areas to +20% for the less exposed areas, demonstrating that orientation should be accounted for when simulating the response of mountainous watersheds.

How to cite: Luttenauer, D., Weill, S., and Ackerer, P.: Impact of mountain topography on potential evapotranspiration and water drainage, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-982, 2023.

16:50–17:00
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EGU23-2920
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Hang Chen and Qifei Niu

In snow-dominated regions, snowmelt water plays a critical role in recharging the subsurface and generating streamflow. With a changing climate, the fraction of annual precipitation that falls as snow will probably decline. Rainfall and snowmelt water have different interactions with the subsurface and potentially vegetation, thus affecting the partitioning of precipitation into subsurface storage and streamflow. Currently, our understanding of how snow-to-rain transition affects this hydrologic partitioning in mountainous catchments is still limited. To take the best management practices for climate change adaptation, it is of critical importance to study how a catchment responds to such environmental disturbances.

In this study, we use the geophysics-informed hydrologic modeling to study the effect of snow-to-rain transition on hydrologic partitioning in a snow-dominated mountainous catchment in Idaho, USA. In the modeling, the subsurface structure was extracted from velocity map obtained from seismic refraction tests. Many studies has highlighted the importance of the heterogeneous subsurface in water partitioning in catchments, but accurate characterizations with traditional field techniques such as drilling are challenging. The hydrologic model developed from geophysical results is then calibrated with historical hydrometeorological measurements. Two climate change scenarios are designed to study the impact of warming on streamflow generation and water storage. In Scenario 1, a uniform warming is considered throughout the year, and an air temperature increase (+2.5 °C) is applied to change the phase of precipitation. In scenario 2, warming is only applied to the snow season (i.e., from December to April). The numerical modeling results show that a uniform warming (scenario 1) significantly promotes evapotranspiration (ET), and streamflow becomes less productive. Warming in the snow season only (scenario 2) induces an earlier, flashier streamflow but the partitioning of precipitation between storage and streamflow is not significantly changed. Compared to simulation results from traditional hydrologic modeling (without the heterogeneous deep subsurface), geophysics-informed hydrologic modeling reveals the importance of water storage in the fractured bedrock in response to the climate change.

How to cite: Chen, H. and Niu, Q.: Effect of snow-to-rain transition on precipitation partitioning in a mountainous catchment: insights from geophysics-informed hydrologic modeling, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2920, 2023.

17:00–17:10
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EGU23-13389
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On-site presentation
Fernando Jaramillo, Kristian Rubiano, Nicola Clerici, and Adriana Sánchez

Tropical Alpine Ecosystems are high-altitude grasslands located above 3000 m.a.s.l. along the tropical belt of three continents. Their unique vegetation and soil characteristics, in combination with low temperature and abundant precipitation, create the most advantageous conditions for regulating and storing surface and groundwater. However, increasing temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation due to greenhouse-gas-emission climate change are threatening these fragile environments, reducing their extent and modifying their altitudinal distribution range. Here, we investigate the impact of climate change on the distribution and extent of global Tropical Alpine Ecosystems. We use an ensemble of historical and projected climate data (SSP585) from seven General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to estimate annual average values of temperature and annual accumulated values of precipitation for reference (1985-2014) and far future (2070-2100) 30-year periodos. We produced the 95% probability current and future hydroclimatic spaces for every ecosystem to determine the range at which Tropical Alpine Ecosystem currently thrives in the climatic space, and investigate a number of hydroclimatic variables. Then, we used the projected climate time-series data to assess the current Tropical Alpine Ecosystem areas that will be unable to keep up with the temperature and precipitation changes by exceeding their reference climatic boundaries in the far future. Overall, our results showed that the Tropical Alpine ecosystem would drastically reduce its extent. Approximately 45% of its current extent will experience hydroclimatic conditions beyond their reference climatic boundaries. For example, the Ethiopian montane moorlands in Africa will be the most impacted ecoregion with a reduction of approximately 95% of its current extent. For the case of páramos in the North of the South American continent, increasing temperatures and changing precipitation will render ~50% of the current extent unsuitable for these ecosystems during the dry season. Our results highlight the magnitude of the impacts of climate change on Tropical Alpine Ecosystem and the vulnerability of water security of millions of people who depend on its ecological functioning. These results also have implications for biodiversity conservation, as endemic species will be threatened by habitat reduction and shifts in their distribution ranges.

How to cite: Jaramillo, F., Rubiano, K., Clerici, N., and Sánchez, A.: Tropical Alpine Ecosystems under climate change: Paramos and moorlands in peril, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13389, 2023.

Mountain hydrology: management and adaptation
17:10–17:20
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EGU23-7013
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On-site presentation
Javier Zabalza-Martínez, Estela Nadal-Romero, Manel Llena, Melani Cortijos-López, Teodoro Lasanta-Martínez, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Diana Pascual, and Eduard Pla

Water resources availability is one of the main concerns for policy makers around the World. In the Mediterranean basin, this problem has been increased given the extreme variability in climate and the land use changes that have occurred during the last century (i.e. land abandonment). Streamflow and other environmental variables related to vegetation have been analysed in three Mediterranean mid-mountain basins under conditions of Climate Change (CC), under conditions of Land Use Change (LUC) and under its Combined Action (CA). The Land Use changes have been defined in the framework of the Life MIDMACC project and are related to land management through shrubland cleaning activities in abandoned fields and forest management that is determined by a 50% decrease in tree density in a forest community.

Three basins (Leza, Estarrún and L'Anyet) have been simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) for the periods 2035-2064 and 2070-2099. The aim of the study is to determine the impacts of climate change and land management on both streamflow and other variables such as Net Primary Production or Potential Evapotranspiration in these basins (representative of Mediterranean mid-mountains) in order to analyse how the management proposed can be used to adapt these basins to climate and whether it is capable of mitigating the forecast reduction in streamflow associated with climate trends.

The results with LUC reveal a clear positive trend, increasing the streamflow in the basins of Leza and L'Anyet rivers (+9.76% and +4.70%) and slightly decrease (-0.13%) in Estarrún river due to the limited area to be managed. The combined action (CA) shows, in general, an attenuation in the clear negative trend of streamflow under climate change (CC) conditions. This suggests that the land management proposed in the LIFE MIDMACC project could help the adaptation of Mediterranean mid-mountain basins to climate change and the mitigation of its effects.

Acknowledgements: This research project was supported by the Life MIDMACC project ((LIFE18 CCA/ES/001099)) project funded by the European Commission. Melani Cortijos-López is working with an FPI contract (PRE2020-094509) from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness associated to the MANMOUNT project. Manel Llena has a “Juan de la Cierva Formación” postdoctoral contract (FJC2020-043890-I/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033) from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation.

 

 

How to cite: Zabalza-Martínez, J., Nadal-Romero, E., Llena, M., Cortijos-López, M., Lasanta-Martínez, T., López-Moreno, J. I., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Pascual, D., and Pla, E.: Could land management modify water resources in Mediterranean mountain areas?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7013, 2023.

17:20–17:30
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EGU23-1948
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Manuela Irene Brunner and Philippe Naveau

Streamflow seasonality in mountain regions is besides climate often shaped by reservoir regulation. Such regulation is particularly important in the Alps where meltwater from glaciers and the snowpack are captured in reservoirs to generate hydropower during the winter season. While reservoirs affect streamflow seasonality, information on past seasonal reservoir operation patterns is rarely publicly available. Consequently, little is known about spatial variations in reservoir storage and release signals in dependence of climate and catchment characteristics. Here, we develop a generalized additive modelling approach to reconstruct daily and seasonal reservoir patterns from observed streamflow time series that encompass a period before and a period after a known year of reservoir construction.

We apply this approach to reconstruct the seasonality of reservoir regulation, i.e. information on when water is stored in and released from a reservoir, for a dataset of 74 regulated catchments in the Central Alps. Using these reconstructed seasonal regulation patterns, we identify groups of catchments with similar reservoir operation strategies using functional clustering. We find that reservoir management varies by catchment elevation. Seasonal redistribution from summer to winter is strongest in high-elevation catchments, where reservoirs are mostly used for hydropower production, while seasonal redistribution is much weaker in the downstream regions, where reservoirs are used for a range of different purposes. The clear relationship between reservoir operation and elevation has practical implications. First, these elevational differences in reservoir regulation can and should be considered in hydrological model calibration. Furthermore, the reconstructed reservoir operation signals can be used to study the joint impact of climate change and reservoir operation on different streamflow signatures, including extreme events. Last, the potential of regulation as a climate adaptation measure may vary for the high-elevation and downstream regions.

How to cite: Brunner, M. I. and Naveau, P.: Disentangling reservoir regulation patterns from natural streamflow in the Alps and their downstream regions, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1948, 2023.

17:30–17:40
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EGU23-11312
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On-site presentation
Christian Huggel and Fabian Drenkhan

The Andes are among the regions most affected worldwide by water insecurity with an increasing number of vulnerable people. Particularly seasonally dry regions such as the Bolivian-Peruvian Altiplano and the Dry Andes of Central Chile and Western Argentina exhibit considerable water stress due to increasingly adverse impacts from climate and land use changes, and growing water demand.

Adaptation to changing water availability is therefore a priority, but systematic scientific and diverse knowledge on adaptation policies and experiences has barely been documented for the Andean region. Here we present the first comprehensive assessment of climate change adaptation in the entire Andes for different adaptation types (management and planning, monitoring system, nature-based solutions, grey infrastructure, financing, and awareness and behaviour) and policies (climate change law, glacier law, Nationally Determined Contributions). This study is based on work contributed to and recently published in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group II (Chapter 12: Central and South America).

In the last two decades, several policies on climate change, water protection, regulation and management laws for adaptation in the mountain water sector have been implemented. The first Framework Law on Climate Change was implemented in Peru (2018) and is under way in Colombia, Chile and Venezuela. One milestone represents the Glacier Protection Law in place in Argentina (2010–2019) and under construction in Chile (since 2005). Furthermore, new water laws that include principles of integrated water resource management have entered into force, for example, in Peru (2009) and Ecuador (2014), or are under way in Colombia (since 2009). However, current realities in the Andes show major challenges in implementing integrated and sustainable water management mechanisms and policies. These are related but not limited to political and institutional instabilities, governance structures, fragmented service provision, lack of economies of scale and scope, corruption and social conflicts.

Although a growing body of climate change adaptation-related policies and initiatives exist for the Andes, evidence on their effectiveness is scarce. In many parts of the region the level of success of adaptation measures depends largely on the governance of projects and stakeholder-based processes and is closely related to their effectiveness, efficiency, social equity and sociopolitical legitimacy. Examples of successful implementation linked to e.g. watershed protection include water funds (e.g. Quito, Ecuador) and stakeholder platform processes (e.g. Moyobamba, Peru). Even less evidence has been reported for limits of adaptation or maladaptation experiences in the water sector. Most barriers to advance adaptation in the Andes are associated with missing links of science–society–policy processes, institutional fragilities, pronounced hierarchies, unequal power relations and top-down water governance regimes.

Adaptation gaps could be bridged by strengthening transdisciplinary research at the science-policy interface with blended bottom-up and top-down approaches in locally tailored adaptation agendas. Recently, the inclusion of indigenous and local knowledges in current adaptation baselines has attracted increasing attention, particularly in regions with a high share of indigenous peoples, such as Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia. Important questions centre around how to integrate diverse knowledge from the early planning stages on, to achieve enhanced or transformational adaptation building on co-produced knowledge.

How to cite: Huggel, C. and Drenkhan, F.: Assessment of climate change adaptation to improve water security in the Andes: current policies, remaining gaps and future opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11312, 2023.

17:40–17:50
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EGU23-15315
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Marcus Nüsser, Dagmar Brombierstäudel, Mohd Soheb, and Susanne Schmidt

The Himalayan cryosphere is shrinking at an accelerating rate. This alarming trend is accompanied by more frequent natural hazards that threaten exposed mountain communities. Problems range from damages of irrigation canals and eroded fields to massive destruction of human habitat. Predicted changes in meltwater supply, modelled under the generic term ‘peak water’, require greater and concerted effort to understand and support local adaptation strategies to cope with experienced and predicted water scarcity. Regional development processes are further characterised by rapid and largely unplanned urbanisation, infrastructure development and related environmental degradation exacerbating risks for large numbers of people already affected by climate change. To meet these grand challenges, an interdisciplinary research perspective is needed for the Himalayan region based on the integration of natural and social sciences. Therefore, an improved understanding of socio-hydrological pathways is necessary to capture local and regional particularities and dynamics, including cryosphere changes, glacio-fluvial runoff, socioeconomic processes, indigenous environmental knowledge, and external development interventions. Based on a long-term study conducted in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, we explore the role of land use changes, water harvesting infrastructures, including implementation of ice reservoirs (so-called “artificial glaciers”) and construction of improved irrigation networks. Furthermore, the role of social institutions ranging from village to non-governmental organizations and state-sponsored development programs are considered. The presentation uses the case study of Ladakh to develop a grounded socio-hydrological framework for the fragile Trans-Himalayan region that may be used as a basis for sustainable development pathways.

How to cite: Nüsser, M., Brombierstäudel, D., Soheb, M., and Schmidt, S.: Socio-hydrological pathways: Cryosphere changes and adaptation strategies in the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh, India, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15315, 2023.

17:50–18:00

Orals: Wed, 26 Apr | Room 2.44

Chairpersons: Andrea Momblanch, Marit Van Tiel, David Haro Monteagudo
08:30–08:35
Mountain hydrology: moisture sources
08:35–08:55
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EGU23-1746
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ECS
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solicited
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Jessica Keune and Manuela Brunner

Mountain regions supply around 22% of the world's population with freshwater — from precipitation over these water towers to melt water from snow packs and glaciers. However, the frozen reservoirs of water that usually act to buffer precipitation deficits are diminishing as a result of climate change. As a consequence, precipitation will become the main source of freshwater supplied by these water towers. Yet, already today, precipitation deficits over many water towers frequently cause severe droughts that further induce supply deficits in downstream regions. 

Here, we unravel the origins of precipitation over the most important water towers worldwide and illustrate their dependency on upwind land regions. Using a moisture tracking framework constrained by satellite observations, we disentangle the local and remote surface drivers of drought over these water towers and highlight the role of forested and irrigated regions during these events. Our results indicate that many water towers can self-sustain their precipitation during drought events through an increased self-supply of moisture for precipitation: over the water tower of the Ganges-Brahmaputra, for example, around 80% of the precipitation during drought events is supplied by the water tower itself and its dependent downstream region. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of the world's most important water towers to drought from an atmospheric perspective and outline the potential of localized forest and land management practices to secure freshwater to billions of people in the future.

How to cite: Keune, J. and Brunner, M.: Unravelling the origins of precipitation over the world’s water towers, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1746, 2023.

08:55–09:05
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EGU23-1676
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Kanishak Sharma, Anil Kumar Gupta, Sameer Kumar Tiwari, and Nikitasha Chatterjee

The stable isotopes of water, 18O and 2H, are impacted by climatic events that give them a distinct fingerprint of their source. Investigating the origin of river water requires this fingerprint as a precursor. On an annual basis and at the global level, the flow of moisture from the oceans and its return via rainout and runoff is similar to a dynamic equilibrium. Rivers in the Himalayan region have their moisture source in various end members which include glacier/snow melting, rainfall/runoff, and groundwater/springs. Sutlej River is one such river that travels across the Himalaya and receives its waters from all the aforementioned regions. 105 water samples from 36 different locations have been collected from the Upper Sutlej River Basin in the pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, and lean seasons to study the isotope system of surface water in the basin. A seasonal cycle with high δ18O and δD values (‰) during the pre-monsoon (March to May; −14.42, −114.94), intermediate values during the winter (lean season) (December to February; −12.63, −105.10), and low values during the post-monsoon (October to November; −12.13, −101.6) is observed. The river falls in the western Himalaya that receives precipitation both from the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) as well as from the Western Disturbances (WDs). The intercept and the d-excess values in the water samples fluctuate due to the variable contributions from these two moisture sources and the related rainfall in different seasons which are generally higher than the global meteoric waters. The 168-hour back trajectories in different seasons using HYSPLIT model converging at a height of 4,200 m a.s.l. (mean elevation of the Upper segment of the catchment) for moisture source identification have shown that winds mainly blow from south or south-east with moisture source from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in summer and monsoon seasons, whereas in winter and spring seasons winds blow mainly from the west bringing moisture from the Central Asian and Eurasian water bodies through Western Disturbances. The results of HYSPLIT model and isotopic analysis indicate a dominant contribution of Western Disturbances and glacier melt in the upper segment of the basin which is consistent with recent data on glacier retreats in the Himalayan region.

Keywords: Himalayan Rivers, Sutlej River, Stable Isotopes, Western Disturbances, Indian Summer Monsoon.

How to cite: Sharma, K., Gupta, A. K., Tiwari, S. K., and Chatterjee, N.: Seasonal variation in stable isotope compositions of surface waters from Upper Sutlej River Basin: Estimation of the moisture source, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1676, 2023.

Mountain hydrology: groundwater processes
09:05–09:15
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EGU23-8899
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Zhao Chen, Giorgia Lucianetti, and Andreas Hartmann

High mountains, which exhibit alpine and subalpine characteristics, represent 15% of the earth’s land area and are estimated to contribute about 17% of global runoff. Depending on hydrogeological setting, a significant amount of catchment water can be stored in high mountainous underground as groundwater, which can contribute substantially to streamflow and represent an important water source. However, high-alpine catchments are often characterized by great geological complexity and highly heterogeneous hydraulic properties. For that reason, proper system characterization, monitoring and modeling remain challenging. In this study, we investigated a geologically complex alpine catchment in the Dolomites (Italian Alps) by combining hydrogeological investigation, hydrological monitoring and numerical modelling. A process based but spatially lumped hydrological model was applied to simulate the continuous measured catchment discharge in a period of three years, which covers a large variation of hydrodynamic conditions. The current model structure couples the sequential hydrogeological units within the studied catchment: (1) the fractured dolomitic rocks as bedrock aquifer and 2) the unconsolidated deposits accumulating on the slopes and at the valley floor as porous aquifer. In order to evaluate the model structure and parameterization in depth, we applied a multi-step evaluation approach considering both parameter sensitivity and uncertainty. The current modelling results demonstrate that the newly developed model can reproduce most discharge behavior of aquifers. The model indicates a dynamic linkage between surface and subsurface storage units during different flow conditions. Besides the matrix and conduit flow in fractured dolomitic aquifer, it highlights the important role of unconsolidated sediments (porous aquifer) to the storage and discharge behavior of the entire groundwater system. Furthermore, with the comprehensive model evaluation we learned the model structure deficit during extreme high flow condition and proposed a more detailed hydrogeological conceptual model to improve the model realism.

How to cite: Chen, Z., Lucianetti, G., and Hartmann, A.: Understanding collective behavior of bedrock and porous aquifers and their contribution to the total water storage and discharge dynamics of a high mountainous catchment – Dolomites, Alps, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8899, 2023.

09:15–09:25
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EGU23-10266
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Bastien Charonnat, Michel Baraer, Jeffrey M. McKenzie, Eole Valence, and Janie Masse-Dufresne

A limitation in generating reliable projections of the impact of climate change on subarctic glacierized watersheds is a lack of understanding of the involved processes. While glaciers are often the targets of glacierized watershed research, glaciers are only one of the many features controlling headwater hydrology. Recent studies suggest that the contribution and evolution of other hydrological components under climate change conditions, as well as their interactions with groundwater and surface runoff, must be considered to fully predict future climate change impacts. For example, rock glaciers are recognized for their hydrogeological significance, but their hydrologic processes remain understudied. We present a research program focused on a 5 km2 glacier and rock glacier continuum in the upper section of Shar Ta Gà’ (Grizzly Creek) in the Kluane First Nation territory, Yukon, Canada. The continuum is characterized by the absence of an apparent surface hydrology outlet and no substantial groundwater exfiltration has been detected in the Shar Ta Gà’ River situated directly downstream of the rock glacier. Some diffuse groundwater seepages have been mapped but their yield represent a fraction only of the volumes that are expected from the glacier drainage area.

We apply a multimethod approach (including geophysics, hydrochemistry, and UAV based surveying) to characterize the hydrological and hydrogeological behavior of the Shar Ta Gà’ rock glacier in a context where drilling is prohibited. Here we present results from a distributed hydrologic monitoring network of extreme precipitation events that occurred between 2018 and 2022. The network records water pressure, electrical conductivity, water temperature, hydrometeorological data and time lapse images. The results depict the rock glacier as a complex, multi-channel, evolutive hydrogeological system that collects water from upstream channels and from a porous surface. The water is distributed among different reservoirs and/or preferential channels. The rock glacier appears being a node in the hydrological and hydrogeological system, collecting the waters from the continuum and allowing their transfer to granular aquifers and possibly fractured aquifers.

How to cite: Charonnat, B., Baraer, M., McKenzie, J. M., Valence, E., and Masse-Dufresne, J.: Are rock glaciers preferential meltwater pathways to alpine aquifers?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10266, 2023.

High mountain hydrology
09:25–09:35
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EGU23-1662
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Sourav Laha, Parmanand Sharma, Sunil N. Oulkar, Lavkush Patel, Bhanu Pratap, and Meloth Thamban

The Himalaya is a massive cryospheric reserve, which provides a significant amount of fresh water to major Asian rivers like the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, etc. Climate-induced cryospheric change is one of the major worldwide concerns, particularly in the Himalaya. Meltwater from glaciers and snow stabilises the downstream river runoff, and it buffers against drought during the driest years to some extent. The hydrological impact due to climate change in the high Himalayan catchments is potentially amplified by the shrinkage of snow and ice reserves. Therefore, it is important to analyse the potential hydrological changes at catchment to regional scales in the Himalaya. Hydrological changes at the regional scale are mainly determined by glacier catchment scale hydrology. Presently, understanding the regional scale discharge in the Himalaya suffers from large uncertainties, and one major source is the lack of glacier catchment scale hydrological understanding. Motivated by the above, here we are studying the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Sutri Dhaka Glacier (debris-free glacier) catchment, which is located in the Chandra basin, western Himalaya. The glacierised area is ~20 km2, and the total catchment area is ~45 km2.

To the glacier catchment, we are applying an hourly timescale glacio-hydrological model to simulate discharge and the corresponding hydrograph components from 1980 to 2022. We also obtained extensive long-term field measurements of glacier mass balance, meteorological parameters, and discharge for the ablation season of 2016 to 2022 (with some gaps). These field data are used to calibrate the model parameters using a Bayesian framework and validate the simulated discharge and glacier mass balance. The simulated discharge variability from the diurnal to inter-annual time scale matches with the observations with reasonable accuracy (R2>0.75). Also, the model is able to capture the strong seasonality of the diurnal discharge amplitude, which has a direct relation to the storage-release properties of the glacier. Particularly, the diurnal discharge variability from the Himalayan glacier catchment is not well explored in the literature. We have also computed the associated uncertainties in the model as we as in the observations. Our present analysis will help to improve the existing process-based understanding of the glacier catchment scale discharge from the glacierised Himalayan region.

How to cite: Laha, S., Sharma, P., Oulkar, S. N., Patel, L., Pratap, B., and Thamban, M.: Hydrological characteristics of Sutri Dhaka glacier catchment in the western Himalaya, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1662, 2023.

09:35–09:45
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EGU23-15451
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Pranisha Pokhrel, Jasper Griffioen, and Walter Immerzeel

The hydrology of large mountainous basins is sensitive to climate and land use change and impacts downstream availability in a diverse way. Our knowledge of the spatial and temporal variation of the water balance for large-scale mountainous basins like the Karnali (40,000 km2) is very limited.  Studies focus either on small alpine catchments or on major river basins of near continental scale. Studies focusing on the intermediate scale, where mountain water supply is directly linked to people and ecosystems downstream are scarce, but needed. In this study, we provide insight into the seasonal and spatial differences in meltwater contribution to streamflow, rain runoff, evapotranspiration and groundwater baseflow, with a particular focus on upstream-downstream dependencies. We use a high-resolution SPHY model, which we calibrate step-wise using satellite data of glacier mass balance and snow covers and observed river flow data. We explore the hydrological variability at the sub-basin scale, discuss the seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of the water balance components, and seek to understand the major drivers. Our results provide a baseline against which impacts of climate and land use changes will be assessed in a subsequent study.

How to cite: Pokhrel, P., Griffioen, J., and Immerzeel, W.: Understanding the seasonal and spatial variation of water balance in the Karnali basin in Nepal, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15451, 2023.

09:45–09:55
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EGU23-7654
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On-site presentation
Gianluca Filippa, Erica Vassoney, Alberto Viglione, Paolo Vezza, Giovanni Negro, Andrea Mammoliti Mochet, and Claudio Comoglio

Mountain rivers are threatened by various natural and human-induced impacts, all of them potentially altering the availability of habitats for fish communities. These impacts include, among others, climate- change-associated reduction of discharge and water abstraction by humans, e.g., for hydropower production and irrigation. A quantitative assessment of future water, and subsequent fish habitat, availability is therefore pivotal to the effective and sustainable management of water resources in mountain basins.

In this work, we investigated the effect of climate change on discharge and fish habitat availability in two alpine catchments in the Western Italian Alps.

Historical discharge was modeled by means of a relatively simple rainfall-runoff model (TUWmodel), whereas discharge projections were computed under different state-of-the-art greenhouse gas scenarios both for the near future (2041-2060) and the far future (2080-2099). Discharge was then translated into habitat availability with the MesoHABSIM (Mesohabitat Simulation Model) methodology, an approach that allows to simulate the variations in habitat availability for the local fish population (brown and marble trout).

We found significant changes in future runoff, in turn leading to marked changes in fish habitat availability, with contrasting response in glaciated vs non glaciated basins.

We demonstrated that the combination of a hydrological model, climate scenarios and habitat modeling allows the depiction of future ecological scenarios for alpine rivers, thereby representing a potential support for water resources management and decision-making.

 

How to cite: Filippa, G., Vassoney, E., Viglione, A., Vezza, P., Negro, G., Mammoliti Mochet, A., and Comoglio, C.: The impact of climate change on fish habitat availability in mountain rivers, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7654, 2023.

09:55–10:05
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EGU23-7880
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Virtual presentation
A Common Observation Period Experiment (COPE) across global mountain research basins - a focal activity of the International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology (INARCH)
(withdrawn)
Chris DeBeer, John Pomeroy, and Ignacio López Moreno and the INARCH participants
10:05–10:15

Posters on site: Wed, 26 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall A

Chairpersons: Marit Van Tiel, Andrea Momblanch, David Haro Monteagudo
A.19
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EGU23-10024
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Highlight
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Kapiolani Teagai, John Armitage, Léo Agélas, Christoff Andermann, Niels Hovius, and Basanta Raj Adhikari

The Himalayan Mountain range is considered as a sustainable large water reservoir, often termed as “water towers of Asia”. This important reservoir of water is replenished annually by monsoon precipitation and is slowly drained in dry season. However, the processes that govern this water budget: the connectivity between perched aquifers situated high in the topography and the underlying fractured bedrock, is not well understood. In this study we investigate the surface-subsurface coupling and characterize the water pathways on a watershed scale. This will help to better understand where and how water is stored within the steep Himalayan topography. The study focuses on the unglaciated Kahule Khola watershed (~33 km²) situated north of Kathmandu in the central Himalayas (ranging from ~1000 to ~3500 m asl). During two field campaigns, we mapped the location of springs before (in May 2022) and after (in November 2022) the monsoon season. We characterized the surface infiltration capacity, soil permeability and carried out multiple ERT surveys covering the first 3000 m elevation profile. All these measurements were made on the major landforms (ridges, V-shaped gullies, and debris filled gullies) and different land use types (terraces, forest, meadow, and landslide debris), giving a clear picture of the landscape structure within this catchment. Infiltration rates and soil permeability are high with an average over 1 m/d, which suggests that infiltration dominates over surface runoff during the monsoon. ERT surveys show low resistivity (from ~100 to ~1000 Ω.m) at shallow depth in line with a weathered upper soil layer. Below this layer the ridges have a higher resistivity (from ~1000 to ~50000 Ω.m) while the gullies have very low resistivities suggesting saturated perched aquifers systems close to the surface. We found that spring heads move up or down slope to the seasonal water table fluctuations, tracing the topographic intersection of the groundwater with the surface. These observations suggest that water storage is substantial but not uniformly distributed within the landscape over time and space. We propose that besides the fractured bedrock, filled gullies and landslide deposits form perched water pockets with an important role in storing and distributing water, especially in the higher parts of mountain landscape.

How to cite: Teagai, K., Armitage, J., Agélas, L., Andermann, C., Hovius, N., and Adhikari, B. R.: Groundwater pathways and storage dynamics in steep mountain topography, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10024, 2023.

A.20
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EGU23-15317
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ECS
Jamal Shokory, Pascal Horton, Bettina Schaefli, and Stuart Lane

Rapid climate change is impacting water resources in Afghanistan, a country in the western Himalaya that is poorly developed in terms of scientific research and environmental monitoring. It is a semi-arid to arid country of Central Asia where livelihoods and economies have developed to be strongly dependent upon mountain water resources, and where snow- and glacier-melt delivers 80% of Afghanistan’s water supply. Rising average global temperatures and glacier shrinkage pose a significant threat to water supply. Once glaciers shrink to a certain size, “peak water” will be reached. Water supply will decline. If winter snowfall declines, or becomes more variable, glaciers are less likely to compensate for the associated water shortage that results, a process that will be compounded by continuing population growth and groundwater over-abstraction.

In order to understand the implications of glacier recession now and in the future with relative contributions of ice, snow and other components to water supply for Afghan water resources, three representative catchments were selected based on their locations and data availability. The TaqchaKhana catchment (264.4 km2 area with 3.1% glacier cover) in the north; the Sust catchment (4609 km2 area with 16% glacier cover) in the east; and the Bamyan catchment (325.3 km2 area with 0.7% glacier cover) in the center of Afghanistan. Climate and streamflow data for 2012 to 2019 obtained from Ministry of Energy and Water of Afghanistan.

In this study the glacier and snowmelt – soil contribution (GSM-SOCONT) hydrological model was modified to allow a simple representation of the effects of debris cover development on ice melt which is commonly overlooked in hydrological models of mountain water resources. The model was individually calibrated for each catchment based on Shuffled Complex Evolution Algorithm (SCE-UA), with the best parameters taken after 20,000 iterations. Eight regional climate models (RCMs) under two scenarios (2.6 and 8.5) were used in the model to simulate future streamflow in the catchments. The RCMs were bias corrected using non-parametric statistical transformation. Future glacier evolution was introduced to the model using a very simple propagation of current measured glacier recession rates into the future. After calibration on data for the periods 2012-2019 and an associated uncertainty analysis, the models were deemed sufficient to understand the relative importance of different sources to water supply and to predict future water supply. The current contributions from glacier melt were observed to be 70% for the Sust catchment, 49% for the TaqchaKhana catchment, and 11% for the Bamyan catchment. Future climate conditions initially increased the ice melt contribution for the Sust and the TaqchaKhana but reduced it for the Bamyan, confirming our hypothesis that direct effects of changing temperature and precipitation in Afghanistan are likely masked by a glacial subsidy.

How to cite: Shokory, J., Horton, P., Schaefli, B., and Lane, S.: Assessing the impact of climate change on Hydrological regime of Afghan catchments, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15317, 2023.

A.21
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EGU23-523
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ECS
Pradeep Srinivasalu, Anil Kulkarni, Srinivas Vv, and Satheesh Sk

The impact of changing climate on the Himalayas strongly influences the amount and timing of water available in the region. Millions of people in the downstream regions of Himalayan catchments depend on streams and rivers originating from the region for domestic consumption, livelihood, agriculture, and hydropower (Immerzeel et al., 2020). Many studies have highlighted the importance of snow and glacier melt towards water availability at the basin scale (Khanal et al., 2021; Prasad et al., 2019). However, the water availability at a much finer scale (i.e., to individual mountain communities) remains unquantified. Understanding the mountain communities' water availability is imperative to mitigate climate change impacts and ensure their water and food security (Kulkarni et al., 2021). In the present study, we aim to estimate the water availability to the communities in the Parvati Basin of Western Himalaya, including the contributions of snow and glacier melt, rainfall, and groundwater to runoff. The catchment has a total area of 1754 km2 and consists of 279 glaciers which cover an area of 395.6 km2. The volume of the glaciers and their mass balance are computed to understand the present state of the glaciers. The volume of the glaciers is estimated as 21.3 ± 3.8 km3 using laminar flow and scaling methods. The mass balance of the glaciers was estimated using the improved accumulation area ratio (IAAR) method as -0.44 ± 0.23 m w.e.a−1. We simulate the daily runoff in the catchment using the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model, which is a fully distributed cryospheric-hydrological model. The volume and mass balance results are used to define the model's initial conditions and constrain mass loss during the simulations. Further, the study also aims to understand the role played by seasonal snow cover on the water available to the mountain communities. The outcome of this assessment would help to facilitate making informed hydrological and agricultural policies to mitigate the impact of climate change.

How to cite: Srinivasalu, P., Kulkarni, A., Vv, S., and Sk, S.: An assessment of the water availability for mountain communities in the Parvati basin, Western Himalaya using a distributed hydrological model, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-523, 2023.

A.22
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EGU23-13139
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ECS
Saroj Rana and Sagar Rohidas Chavan

Recurrent flood estimation studies in Himalayan catchments located in India are crucial and require abundant monitoring and supervision. Reliable estimation of design floods for mountainous catchments corresponding to various return periods is challenging. Recently, climate change has exacerbated this challenge which pose a serious threat to the water resources within Himalayan region. The Geomorphology based Unit hydrograph theory can provide reliable estimates of design floods for Himalayan catchments. The theory involves determination of Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (GIUH) corresponding to a catchment and utilizing the GIUH to predict design flood for a design rainfall input. In this study, it is envisaged to model the complex dynamics of floods in a Himalayan catchment by using a modified version of GIUH which is known as Equivalent Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (E-GIUH). EGIUH overcomes many limitations associated with the conventional GIUH. The application of E-GIUH is performed for Seer catchment which is a sub-basin of Sutlej River basin. The design rainfall input to the E-GIUH is determined from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data for the present (1951-2019) as well as the future time periods (2021-2060 and 2061-2100). Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments are considered to determine future projections of rainfall over Seer catchment which are subsequently used to estimate design rainfall input for future time periods. Design flood estimates are obtained for various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), particularly SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios from CMIP6 experiments. The geomorphological descriptors used for development of E-GIUH model of the Seer catchment are evaluated using the GIS framework.

Keywords: Climate Change, CMIP6, E-GIUH, IMD, SSP, Seer Catchment

How to cite: Rana, S. and Chavan, S. R.: Design Flood estimation based on Equivalent Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph for a Himalayan catchment, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13139, 2023.

A.23
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EGU23-2205
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ECS
Shiqin Xu

The Tibetan Plateau functions as the Asian water tower. It is highly sensitive to climate change and is warming faster than low-lying areas. The snow-melt dynamics are being perturbed, precipitation and evaporation patterns are shifting, and permafrost is degrading. Climate change therefore threatens the basin water supply as well as agriculture, hydropower, and industry which depend on it. The scientific questions we emphasized here are: (i) How evaporative water demand (EWD) changes in space and time during the current decades across the Asian water tower? (ii) Which driver should be attributable for the change? (iii) How EWD change informs the potential alteration of surface water resources in the Asian water tower? The expected outcomes would improve our understanding of the hydroclimatic change in the Asian water tower as well as other high-water yielding mountainous regions worldwide. 

How to cite: Xu, S.: Trends in evaporative water demands in the Tibetan Plateau and its implication for hydroclimatic change, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2205, 2023.

A.24
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EGU23-1313
Davide Canone, Davide Gisolo, Ivan Bevilacqua, Alessio Gentile, Justus van Ramshorst, Maurizio Previati, and Stefano Ferraris

Shrub encroachment of grasslands in the Alps is still a poorly studied phenomenon. Therefore, this study analyses the possible effect of shrub encroachment on actual evapotranspiration (ETa) at an abandoned grassland in the Northwestern Italian Alps, colonised by Elaeagnus Rhamnoides shrubs. This is done by means of micrometeorological and eddy covariance data collected during four growing seasons. Additionally, the Hydrus 1D hydrological model modified to account for a soil column with two vegetation types is used.  This modified model is run with a variable percentage of shrubs on evapotranspiration, ranging from 0 to 80% and it is validated by using the measured eddy covariance-derived ETa. The Hydrus 1D model is also applied in its usual set-up, having only one vegetation type, to estimate the ETa from both grassland and shrubs separately.

The performance of the modified model with two vegetation types is acceptable, although it is very variable between different growing seasons and in dry condition it could be further improved (R between 0.50 in 2016 and 0.73 in 2014 considering the probable actual percentage of ETa affected by shrubs. The percentage varies between 20% in 2016 and 60% in 2014). Besides, the model captures the inter-annual variability of ETa. The agreement of cumulative simulated and observed ETa is good, since the deviation between observed and modelled cumulative ETa is always lower, in the four analysed growing seasons, than 50 mm.

The simulated ETa approximates the eddy covariance-derived ETa, however the modelled soil water content is very sensitive to precipitation events, more than the measured soil water content. Both models, with the modified and the usual setup, tend to overestimate the vegetation stress during dry periods. Nevertheless, the single vegetation model results allow us to conclude that the shrubs likely are responsible for an enhancement of ETa and an alteration of the hydrological cycle accordingly. Finally, we explore how some micro-meteorological drivers of ETa (vapour pressure deficit – VPD, net radiation, wind speed, air temperature and ground heat flux - G0) affect the difference between modelled and simulated ETa, and between simulated ETa from shrubs and from grass. Frequently, higher deviations from zero are found especially with high VPD and G0.

How to cite: Canone, D., Gisolo, D., Bevilacqua, I., Gentile, A., van Ramshorst, J., Previati, M., and Ferraris, S.: Evapotranspiration of an Abandoned Grassland in the Italian Alps: Modeling the impact of shrub encroachment, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1313, 2023.

A.25
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EGU23-13133
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ECS
Sonia Morgese, Francesca Casale, and Daniele Bocchiola

Climate change’s effects are remarkable on water systems, especially for alpine mountain regions. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change upon productivity of mountain pastures in the Gran Paradiso National Park (GPNP), Italy. For this purpose, some agro-climatic indices were introduced. GPNP dynamics are linked to the complex cryospheric hydrology of Alpine catchment and to the interspecies competition, which are in turn expected to change remarkably under prospective global warming scenarios. The hydrological Poli-Hydro model was used to simulate the cryospheric processes affecting the hydrology of high altitude catchments of the area. The Poli-Pasture model was developed for the simulation of pasture vegetation growth, and completed with adaptation of the CoSMo model, to consider interspecific competition. Two species were chosen for low altitude (elevation lower than 1800 m a.s.l.), e.g. Trifolium Alpinum and Dactylis Glomerata, and two species, Festuca Rubra and Nardus Stricta, for high altitude (elevation greater than 1800 m a.s.l.).

Model calibration and validation were performed against LAI (Leaf Index Area) during 2005-2019, using observed values available from satellite imagery.

Through four scenarios from the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) applied to six GCM models (CESM2, CMCC, EC-EARTH3, HADGEM3 and MPI-ESM), meteorological data up to the year 2100 were derived. Using such climate projections, future agro-climatic indices, leaf area index and pasture yield were estimated.

According to IPCC projections, during growing season, temperature will noticeably increase at the end of the century, especially in high altitude areas, where mountain areas will experience highest temperature eve, with few heat wave days.

Due to increasing temperatures, a potential increase in productivity has been found in higher areas (up to 96% more by 2050 and 123% in by 2100, according to SSP5 8.5 scenario) and a lower change in lower elevation areas. The results provide preliminary evidence of potential livestock, and thereby economic development in the valley at higher altitudes than now. Under reduction of precipitation in summer, decrease in water consumption is expected, with possible lack of available water.

How to cite: Morgese, S., Casale, F., and Bocchiola, D.: Dynamics of multi-specie pasturelands under potential climate changes. The Gran Paradiso Park of Italy., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13133, 2023.

A.26
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EGU23-7433
Jesús Revuelto, César Deschamps-Berger, Juan Ignacio López Moreno, Laura Sourp, Sylvia Terzago, Francisco Rojas Heredia, and Marion Réveillet

The mountains of the Iberian peninsula host seasonal snowpacks in various environments, from mediterranean climate in the Sierra Nevada to alpine climate in the Pyrenees. This range of conditions is expected to result in different, but largely unknown, sensitivity of the snowpacks to the ongoing and future climate change. We modeled the snowpack in five sites which were selected over the peninsula for their environmental importance as indicated by their national park status. We downscaled the EURO-CORDEX meteorological forcings on a 250 m grid and forced SnowModel to obtain an ensemble of spatialized snowpack simulations over the historical period (1970-2005) and a projection period (2005-2100) considering different RCP scenarios. The accuracy of the simulation was evaluated with satellite snow cover images and in-situ measurements. The general decrease in snowpack impacts the hydrological cycle temporality and the frequency of snow droughts in the basins but is modulated by the varying climatic conditions between the study sites.

How to cite: Revuelto, J., Deschamps-Berger, C., López Moreno, J. I., Sourp, L., Terzago, S., Rojas Heredia, F., and Réveillet, M.: Future evolution of the snowpack in the Iberian peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7433, 2023.

A.27
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EGU23-12879
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ECS
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Magdalena Seelig, Simon Seelig, Jutta Eybl, and Gerfried Winkler

Climate change alters the processes and components of the global water cycle. With about 50 % of the Austrian water supply depending on springs, the response of spring discharge to changes in climate is a key question of sustainable water resources management. The monitoring system of the Hydrographic Service of Austria provides long-term data of 94 springs distributed over whole Austria. With this study we provide trend analyses related to climate change and statistical analyses of spring discharge patterns related to their runoff characteristics on a national scale. The analyses account for the structure of the time series and address requirements of objectivity, transparency and reproducibility. Trend significance is assessed employing the seasonal Mann-Kendall test, and trend magnitude is calculated by the Theil-Sen slope. Autocorrelation function and pardè coefficient are calculated for each spring, similarities are explored using cluster analysis and set in a regional context. The results identify spatiotemporal patterns across Austria and highlight the significance of accurate spring flow characterization with regard to future challenges of water resources management.

How to cite: Seelig, M., Seelig, S., Eybl, J., and Winkler, G.: Trend analyses and characterization of discharge patterns of Austrian springs, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12879, 2023.

A.28
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EGU23-13993
Jan Wienhöfer, Lucas Alcamo, Jan Bondy, and Erwin Zehe

We present a robust approach for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for water resources management in mountainous catchments, where rainfall sums and variability are correlated with orographic elevation, but density of rain gauges does not allow for advanced geostatistical interpolation of rainfall fields. 
Key of the method is modelling rainfall at unobserved locations by their elevation-dependent expected daily mean, and a daily fluctuation which is determined by spatial interpolation of the residuals of neighbouring rain gauges, which are scaled according to the elevation difference. The scaling factor is defined as the ratio of covariance and variance, in analogy to the "beta" used in economics.
The approach is illustrated for the Chirilu catchments (Chillón, Rímac, Lurín) in the Andes near Lima, Peru. The results are compared to conventional IDW interpolation and a merged national rainfall product. The method results in QPE that are better matching with observed discharges. The β-IDW approach thus provides a robust and flexible means to estimate rainfall input to mesoscale mountainous catchments.

 

How to cite: Wienhöfer, J., Alcamo, L., Bondy, J., and Zehe, E.: Statistical-topographical mapping of rainfall over mountainous terrain with the β-IDW approach, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13993, 2023.

A.29
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EGU23-11342
Mark Hegnauer, Laurene Bouaziz, Bart Van den Hurk, Philippe Floch, Hideki Kanamaru, and Alessandra Gage

Understanding the impact of climate change on water resources is crucial for selecting adequate adaptation strategies at a local scale. Global meteorological re-analysis datasets are useful to evaluate current-day climate conditions and trends, as a first step in a climate change assessment in poorly gauged basins. However, these datasets often lack the level of detail to calculate meaningful climate impacts at a local scale, especially in mountainous regions, where topography and orographic effects play a crucial role on the temporal and spatial variability of climate characteristics and change. In this study, we test how the combined use of global, regional and local datasets together with fieldwork result in locally relevant climate change impact assessment. The method is applied in Bhutan, a country with large differences between hydroclimatic zones, caused by the steep topography and the occurrence of the annual Monsoon rains in the Southern half of the country. The results of this study show the large variability between different global datasets in terms of precipitation volumes. The comparison of global, regional and local meteorological datasets in combination with locally observed streamflow data suggest that the regional re-analysis dataset is the most reliable and plausible to use for the climate impact assessment. Interestingly, the two global datasets used in this study, ERA5 (Hersbach et al., 2018) and W5E5 (Lange et al., 2021), seem to either underestimate (W5E5) or overestimate (ERA5) the precipitation considerably. The regional Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA, Ashrit, 2020) precipitation re-analysis dataset seems to best represent the current climate conditions in Bhutan. This conclusion was further supported during a field visit, which highlighted that the spatial variability of the precipitation was likely not well captured the local precipitation gauges, which were mostly in the valleys. As this local data is used for the bias correction of the W5E5 dataset, it is likely that W5E5 is also not representative of the spatial variability of the local climate in Bhutan. This study demonstrates the importance of local knowledge, locally observed hydrological data and fieldwork to strengthen the local and regional climate impact assessments.

References

Ashrit, R., Indira Rani, S., Kumar, S., Karunasagar, S., Arulalan, T., Francis, T., et al. (2020). IMDAA regional reanalysis: Performance evaluation during Indian summer monsoon season. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD030973. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030973  

Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., Thépaut, J-N. (2018): ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1959 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). (Accessed on < DD-MMM-YYYY >), https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6

Lange, S., Menz, C., Gleixner, S., Cucchi, M., Weedon, G.P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Schmied, H.M., Hersbach, H., Buontempo, C., Cagnazzo C., 2021. WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5 v2.0). ISIMIP Repository. https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.342217

How to cite: Hegnauer, M., Bouaziz, L., Van den Hurk, B., Floch, P., Kanamaru, H., and Gage, A.: Locally relevant and accurate climate impact assessments: A case study for Bhutan, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11342, 2023.

A.30
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EGU23-17182
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ECS
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Johanna Ochoa Ruilova, María Alvarado-Carrión, Jairo Cabrera, Rolando Célleri, Patricio Crespo, Pablo Guzmán-Cárdenas, Santiago Núñez-Mejía, and Ana Ochoa-Sánchez

Global warming and changes in the magnitude and spatial distribution of precipitation have already reduced water availability in many mountain areas, including the Andes Mountain range (IPCC, 2022). Globally, approximately 2.3 billion people are currently living in highly water-stressed areas (UN Water, 2021). By the end of the century, humid and semi-humid regions would decrease by 2.3 and 4.9 %, respectively (Tabari, 2020). These scenarios, together with population and water demand increase result in (i) the water demand risks to exceed the existing capacity of water supply and (ii) the wastewater treatment infrastructure fails to treat all polluted effluent water. As such, we proposed a project to the VLIR-UOS TEAM initiatives and got funded from 2022 to 2027. Our project aims to define the effect of climate change and increasing water demand projections and to propose and develop water management strategies that will secure the water supply of Andean cities in the future.

Our study site is Cuenca, a middle-size city located in southern Ecuador and, as many Andean cities, lacks of enough data (e.g. water scarcity is uncertain on its scale and periodicity all along the region) that allows informed decision making. In this sense, this project will reduce the uncertainty of global scenarios to propose adequate bottom up adaptation strategies that lead to better water resources management at a household and
regulatory level. The objectives of the proposed project are built under the Integrated Water Resource Management approach (IWRM) and water security. During a first phase, the project will provide climate and hydrological projections in the main catchments in Cuenca for the period 2020-2050 and during the second phase, we will provide water availability projections and water management adaptation plans built with citizens and decision makers.

A priority of this project is to enhance capacity building of local governments (e.g. Municipality of Cuenca, ETAPA EP which is the local water company), national institutions and Universities; this is key to achieve the transfer of knowledge and capacity building to the partner Universities and partner institutions. Citizens and other stakeholders are also key elements for the development of this initiative. Our ultimate goal is to implement the adaptation strategies proposed during the development of this project in the plans, policies and regulations for the city, working together with the citizens in three key axes: educommunicational activities, new or additional normative proposals, and infrastructure strategies. Furthermore, there is the need to propose and evaluate climate adaptation strategies applied to Andean cities (including outside Ecuador), and thus the methodology developed in the project will be made available to those cities.

The proposed project takes environment indirectly as one of the main objectives since the development of water management strategies considering climate change and increasing water demand, will directly contribute to the improvement and stabilization of the environment. Additionally, the project considers gender balance, with a female project director in Cuenca and a 40% female presence in co-promoters and team members.

How to cite: Ochoa Ruilova, J., Alvarado-Carrión, M., Cabrera, J., Célleri, R., Crespo, P., Guzmán-Cárdenas, P., Núñez-Mejía, S., and Ochoa-Sánchez, A.: Sustainable water management under climate change in Southern Ecuador, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17182, 2023.

Posters virtual: Wed, 26 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | vHall HS

Chairpersons: Marit Van Tiel, Andrea Momblanch, David Haro Monteagudo
vHS.5
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EGU23-165
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ECS
Mani Kanta Malla and Dhyan Singh Arya

Hydrological models are simplified mathematical representations of various hydrological processes and their interactions in a catchment. They are widely employed to simulate hydrological responses under diverse scenarios of climate, land use, land cover, and agricultural and soil management practices, which are helpful for planning water resources and management at the catchment scale. The parameters of the hydrological models are often optimised by calibrating them such that the observed and simulated streamflow match closely. Reliable prediction of hydrological variables of interest in ungauged or poorly gauged basins and addressing the uncertainty associated with the prediction is a challenging task as it is very difficult to calibrate the models due to the unavailability of measured hydrological responses. Escalating research interest in predicting hydrological fluxes at ungauged or poorly gauged catchments has been witnessed recently using distributed modelling, advanced scientific methods, and the availability of high-resolution satellite-based and reanalysis datasets used in model calibration. Additionally, the ability of remote sensing data sources to consider spatial variability is a further benefit in calibrating hydrological models, which lowers the level of uncertainty in the outputs. This proposed study focuses on calibrating 3 layered Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with soil moisture, and evapotranspiration obtained from different remote sensed and reanalysis data sets in the Upper Indus basin of the Hindukush Himalayan region. As the Upper Indus basin has limited meteorological stations and no gauging stations in the Indian mainland, the current study has much scope to quantify the water resources using different remote sensing/reanalysis datasets. The results expected from this study are to find the suitable variable and reanalysis product for the calibration of the VIC model and the uncertainty associated with various remote sensing and reanalysis products.

How to cite: Malla, M. K. and Arya, D. S.: Hydrological model calibration in a Himalayan Catchment Using Remote sensing/Reanalysis Datasets., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-165, 2023.