EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Better late than never: arrival of decadal predictions to the climate services arena

Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali1, Dragana Bojovic1, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego1, Andria Nicodemou1, Marta Terrado1, Louis-Philippe Caron2, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes1,3
Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali et al.
  • 1Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences, Spain
  • 2Ouranos, 550 Sherbrooke St W, Montreal, QC, Canada
  • 3Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain

Decadal prediction represents a source of near-term climate information that has the potential to support climate-related decisions in key socio-economic sectors that are influenced by climate variability and change. While the research to illustrate the ability of decadal predictions in forecasting the varying climate conditions on a multi-annual timescale is rapidly evolving, the development of climate services based on such forecasts is still in its early stages. This study showcases the potential value of decadal predictions in the development of climate services. We summarize the lessons learnt from coproducing a forecast product that provides tailored and user-friendly information about multi-year drought conditions for the coming five years over global wheat harvesting regions. The interaction between the user and climate service provider that was established at an early stage and lasted throughout the forecast product development process proved fundamental to provide useful and ultimately actionable information to the stakeholders concerned with food production and security. This study also provides insights on the potential reasons behind the delayed entry of decadal predictions in the climate services discourse and practice, which were obtained from surveying climate scientists and discussing with decadal prediction experts.

How to cite: Solaraju-Murali, B., Bojovic, D., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Nicodemou, A., Terrado, M., Caron, L.-P., and Doblas-Reyes, F. J.: Better late than never: arrival of decadal predictions to the climate services arena, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8296,, 2023.