Predictions of climate from seasonal to (multi)decadal timescales (S2D) and their applications
Co-organized by AS1/NH11/NP5/OS4
Convener:
Leon Hermanson
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Co-conveners:
Panos J. Athanasiadis,
Bianca MezzinaECSECS,
Leonard BorchertECSECS,
André Düsterhus
Orals
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Fri, 28 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) Room 0.49/50
Posters on site
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Attendance Fri, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) Hall X5
The session welcomes contributions from dynamical as well as statistical predictions (including machine learning methods) and their combination. This includes predictions of climate phenomena, including extremes, from global to regional scales, and from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales ("seamless predictions"). The session also covers physical processes relevant to long-term predictability sources (e.g. ocean, cryosphere, or land) and predictions of large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to teleconnections as well as observational and emergent constraints on climate variability and predictability. Also relevant is the time-dependence of the predictive skill and windows of opportunity. Analysis of predictions in a multi-model framework, and ensemble forecast initialization and generation, including innovative ensemble approaches to minimize initialization shocks, are another focus of the session. The session pays particular attention to innovative methods of quality assessment and verification of climate predictions, including extreme-weather frequencies, post-processing of climate hindcasts and forecasts, and quantification and interpretation of model uncertainty. We particularly invite contributions presenting the use of seasonal-to-decadal predictions for risk assessment, adaptation and further applications.
16:15–16:25
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EGU23-8296
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ECS
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solicited
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
16:25–16:30
Discussion
16:30–16:40
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EGU23-7676
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Virtual presentation
16:40–16:50
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EGU23-8750
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On-site presentation
17:00–17:10
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EGU23-13375
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
17:10–17:20
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EGU23-5602
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Virtual presentation
17:20–17:30
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EGU23-6000
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ECS
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On-site presentation
17:40–17:50
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EGU23-8000
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ECS
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On-site presentation
17:50–18:00
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EGU23-16899
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ECS
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On-site presentation
X5.205
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EGU23-15829
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ECS
X5.206
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EGU23-14907
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ECS
Multi-model assessment of the next-decade climate over the Mediterranean region
(withdrawn)
X5.210
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EGU23-14755
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ECS