EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Climate change effects on flooding at Lurin river basin, Peru

Henry Asencios1,2, Waldo Lavado1,2, Evelin Sabino1,3, Jonathan Qquenta1, and Oscar Felipe1
Henry Asencios et al.
  • 1Subdirección de Estudios e Investigaciones Hidrológicas, Dirección de Hidrología, Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú (
  • 2Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Escuela de Posgrado, Programa de Doctorado en Recursos Hídricos, Lima, Perú
  • 3Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Escuela de Posgrado, Maestría en Gestión Integral de Cuencas Hidrográficas, Lima, Perú

The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in central Peruvian Andes for this century, which will pose a significant challenge on water resources management and flood risk mitigation. The present study focuses on assessing the possible flood hazard under two different climate change scenarios (SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5) in the lower part of the Lurin River watershed (~ 1642.5 Km2) by using a distributed physically-based hydrologic and erosional model (e.g. TREX) and a 2-D depth-averaged hydraulic and sediment transport model (e.g. BASEMENT-2D). The models were calibrated using hydrometeorological data corresponding to the extreme flood events of 2015 and 2017 and satellite-based and UAV-derived inundation maps. Future climate scenarios are going to be constructed from bias-corrected outputs of CMIP6 global climate models, while the rainfall temporal patterns for different return periods will be obtained from observed precipitation events corresponding to extreme flood events of El Niño 2017. Results are expected to provide important data needed to make policy changes to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change in the Lurin River basin. 

How to cite: Asencios, H., Lavado, W., Sabino, E., Qquenta, J., and Felipe, O.: Climate change effects on flooding at Lurin river basin, Peru, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9028,, 2023.