Effect of stress regime change on fractured carbonate’s permeability: A case of Latemar carbonate buildup (The Dolomites, Northern Italy)

Changes in stress regimes impact the geometry of fracture networks and affect the porosity and permeability of carbonate reservoirs. This is, predominantly, because of the complexity of the deformation phases, the poor understanding of the mechanical and diagenetic mechanisms that affect apertures, and the difficulty in precisely characterizing aperture distributions in the subsurface. Utilizing outcrop data analysis and displacement-based linear elastic finite element modelling, we study the effect of stress regime change on fracture network permeability. The model is based on fracture networks, specifically fracture sub-structures.

The Latemar, which is primarily affected by subsidence deformation and Alpine compression, is used as an outcrop analogue for isolated (Mesozoic) carbonate formations with fracture-dominated permeability. We apply a novel strategy involving two compressive boundary loading conditions constrained by the study area's NW-SE and N-S stress directions. Stress-dependent heterogeneous apertures and effective permeability were computed by: (i) using the local stress state within the fracture sub-structure and (ii) running a single-phase flow analysis considering the fracture apertures in each fracture sub-structure.

Our results show that the impact of the modelled far-field stresses at: (i) subsidence deformation (first stage loading) from the NW-SE, and (ii) Alpine deformation (second stage loading) from the N-S, increased the overall fracture aperture and permeability. In each case, increasing permeability is associated with open fractures parallel to the orientation of the loading stages and with fracture densities. The anisotropy of permeability is affected by shear dilation and is increased by the density and connectedness of the fracture network. The two far-field stresses simultaneously acting within the selected fracture sub-structure at a different magnitude and orientation do not necessarily cancel out each other in the mechanical deformation modelling. These stresses effect the overall aperture and permeability distributions. These effects, which may be ignored in simpler stress-dependent permeability, can result in significant inaccuracies in permeability estimation, especially in the subsurface carbonate reservoirs.