Groundwater resources are essential for human water supply and ecosystem functioning. Against the background of climate change, groundwater use becomes increasingly important, as it serves as a buffer during dry periods and is often less polluted than surface water. However, changing socio-economic factors influence groundwater use patterns (e.g. demographic transition, economic development and efficiency gains) and can lead to high demands during (dry summer) periods of low availability. In addition, there are climate change-related changes in groundwater recharge due to altered precipitation patterns and increased potential evapotranspiration. Therefore, it is necessary to consider scenarios of future groundwater availability and use to support sustainable groundwater management in Europe. We combine groundwater recharge and societal water demand in Europe to identify spatial patterns of groundwater availability and demand mismatches. For the current situation, we use data from the global hydrological model WaterGAP to quantify, with a spatial resolution of 0.5°, groundwater stress across Europe as the ratio of total groundwater abstractions to groundwater recharge. For future recharge estimation, we compile a multi-model ensemble with data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) that includes four global climate and eight global hydrological models to assess the uncertainties that are inevitable in analyzing the future impacts of climate change. We quantify scenarios of future domestic water demand using water use data, population scenarios and climate variables on a national and sub-national scale. By combining current groundwater stress with trends in future groundwater recharge and domestic water demand, we identify hotspots of future stress on domestic water supply. Our approach contributes to the understanding of human-water interactions and highlights the importance of combining physical conditions and human influences. The methodology can be easily adapted to other regions of the world (if data on water use and population are available) to support sustainable groundwater management.

How to cite: Söller, L., Luetkemeier, R., and Döll, P.: Domestic water supply under stress due to future climatic and socio-economic changes: A European-scale analysis, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1360, 2023.

Anthropogenic pressures are generating an increasing number of water crises worldwide, including depletion of resources, water scarcity, pollution and water insecurity. One of the most prominent drivers behind these crisis is humanity’s growing water footprint, which measures human appropriation of freshwater resources in terms of volume and assimilation capacity to fulfill human needs and desires. The adverse impacts of our growing water footprint are manifold and spill over from the water and environmental domains to social, cultural, and economic domains.

The finance sector constitutes a powerful actor group that is often overlooked in water management discourses, despite the fact that through their allocation of trillions worth of monetary capital they enable economic activities that use and pollute water. In doing so, they steer and shape the state of Earth’s water resources of tomorrow. Finance may thus prove a crucial lever to help mitigate some of the water crises the world is currently facing and reach global water security by steering economic activity away from detrimental water practices. To date, however, it is unknown if the finance sector in (including banks, pensions funds and insurance companies), are a help or a hindrance in resolving global water crises.

We try to shed light on this issue by developing an assessment framework that is able to evaluate to what extent institutional investors include water aspects in their investment policies. The framework incorporates criteria on water accounting (e.g. do investors know the water footprint of their portfolio assets?); impact assessment (e.g. do investors assess water-related environmental, social and economic impacts of their investments?); impact management (e.g. do investors have mitigation plans in place?); and organizational governance structures and disclosure (e.g. do they report on water in their public facing communications?). We applied the framework to the 50 largest investors worldwide, managing 118 trillion USD in assets, by scrutinizing publicly disclosed policy documents, reporting and analyses on these topics. We scored and ranked the investors assessed to tell apart laggards from frontrunners.

Our study elucidates new interactions between two currently disconnected groups of stakeholders, i.e. the finance community on the one hand and the water science community on the other. Our study helps water scientists to better understand drivers of some of the water-related problems they struggle to address through research, while also assisting investors on their journey to assure water sustainable investment policies fit for a water secure, inclusive and circular global economy.

How to cite: Hogeboom, R. and Dobrescu, I.: The finance sector: help or hindrance in resolving global water crises?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1547, 2023.

The agricultural sector is challenged to meet the global food needs of mankind and reduce its environmental impacts. It is well known that the industrialisation of agriculture has led to negative effects such as water pollution, increased erosion, loss of biodiversity, increased zoonotic diseases, high water consumption to the detriment of ecosystem needs and other users, and greenhouse gas emissions, among others.

However, the proposition and implementation of adequate solutions for these environmental issues are still limited by the epistemological challenge posed by the complexity of socio-ecological processes associated with food production at different spatial and temporal scales. To that respect, different approaches have emerged such as social metabolism, the water-energy-food nexus, coupled social-natural or socio-environmental systems analysis, socio-ecohydrology, hydro-social and socio-hydrological approaches, life cycle assessment, ecological footprint (water footprint and virtual water), energy and matter flow analysis, extended environmental input-output analysis, among others. However, in our opinion, such approaches usually do not address the complex relations between agricultural production and the water cycle, nor the effects of the socio-economic and political context on the biogeochemical cycles, although they are fundamental in the processes occurring in agroecosystems, and their environmental impacts. The present methodological proposal makes a novel integration of approaches from the social sciences (social metabolism) with those from the earth sciences (socioecohydrology) to incorporate such cycles in the analysis of historical metabolic patterns and possible future trajectories of agroecosystems.

We start with the Agrarian Metabolism approach developed and tested for the metabolic analysis of agriculture in Spain in contemporary history. This methodological core is enriched, including estimations of blue, green, grey and virtual water, estimated through hydrological spatiotemporal-explicit modelling. From this integration, progress is made in the tailoring of new metabolic indicators that account for the thermodynamic cost of landscape alteration over time, as well as the energy efficiency of agroecosystems.

Southern Spanish (Andalusian) is an important agrarian region, accounting for ~17% of the cultivated area of Spain, presenting different types of agriculture, such as olive orchards (main Spanish producer), greenhouse vegetables, paddy rice, and berries, and also exemplifying diverse water-related environmental problems´ associated to the agricultural production. Thus, the industrialization process of Andalusian agriculture, in the period 1951-2018, is taken as a case study. For the analysis of possible future trajectories, climate change scenarios modelled for the Spanish territory as well as different agroecological management scenarios will be analysed. Hence, this proposal is useful for understanding the effects of agriculture in contemporary history, particularly in its industrialisation phase and, also, the expected results will serve as a scientific basis for decision-making on future actions in the territory and as a tool for analysing different types of scenarios and their comparison with patterns already observed in the recent past.

How to cite: Salazar-Galán, S., Vila-Traver, J., Guzmán-Casado, G., Beltrán, M. J., Infante-Amate, J., Aguilera, E., García-Ruiz, R., Francés, F., and González de Molina, M.: Linking social metabolism with socioecohydrology in the study of the sustainability of agricultural production in Spain: a methodological approach, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14241, 2023.

Adapting to growing urban water scarcity requires accurate assessments of present and future water security challenges. An estimated 1 billion people live in cities with intermittent public water supply, often resulting in highly unequal access to water. Under these conditions, households with below-average water access are most exposed to water insecurity. As a result, the full extent of water insecurity could substantially exceed the impacts identified by aggregate water security metrics. Here, we extend an existing coupled human and natural system model of the entire water sector in the Indian Upper Bhima basin, in order to analyze the degree to which water access inequality exacerbates urban water insecurity. The model integrates hydrologic modeling with urban water allocation institutions and water user agents, using data from a quantitative survey of almost 2,000 households in and around Pune, remote sensing data, as well as village-level census and water supply data. We use the model to assess water security impacts under historical and future droughts and various levels of supply augmentation. We find that a large share of households falls below critical water security thresholds before impacts are detected by aggregate metrics. While an unequal water distribution prevails, supply augmentation projects require several times the scale to meet given per capita water supply targets across the population than they would under a more equitable distribution. The findings demonstrate the extent to which current assessments of future urban water insecurity can underestimate the challenges ahead.

How to cite: Klassert, C., Wang, A., Jain Figueroa, A., Zhu, Y., Karutz, R., Zozmann, H., Klauer, B., Gawel, E., and Gorelick, S.: Assessing urban water insecurity under access inequality - coupled human-natural systems analyses in the Upper Bhima Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14555, 2023.

Both natural and social science have been debating the existence, nature, and relevance of the interconnections between water and conflict. The intrinsic complexity of these interconnections makes representing them in a quantitative way a challenging task. Yet, there are actors in intra-state conflicts allegedly taking advantage of environmental stress, often in contexts where resources such as water and land have a primal role in the local population’s livelihoods. In this regard, the environmental aspects of conflicts become of special interest. We investigate these aspects and interconnections for conflict events occurring in the Lake Chad Basin from 2000 to 2015. We use custom-made spatially distributed hydrological simulations to construct and quantify water availability indicators explicitly accounting for human dimensions of water demand and water utilization, focusing in particular on agriculture as a key sustenance mean. Then, spatial econometric regression models are employed to test conflict occurrence against a set of covariates including water scarcity, but also other biophysical and social stress variables, and accounting for space- and time-specific conflict mechanisms through ad-hoc modeling structures. As a complement to this analysis, we develop a methodology to spatially cluster conflicts in association to water scarcity and so identify specific patterns of water availability recurring in specific conflict dynamics. While from the spatial econometric analysis we find that, in line with previous literature, the self-feeding mechanisms of conflict play a stronger role as conflict drivers than water scarcity, from the clustering analysis emerge complex, context-specific interconnections between water availability, water scarcity and conflict, with particular water utilization processes and specific conflictual mechanisms as intermediary processes. More in general, advanced hydrological simulations and statistical analyses are combined with a critical approach to how socio-hydrological processes are described, making quantitative results able to support qualitative insights. This approach can contribute to close the gap between biophysical environmental stress modeling and qualitative social stress representations, so to build more comprehensive knowledge frameworks for complex socio-environmental issues.

How to cite: Galli, N., Dell'Angelo, J., Epifani, I., Chiarelli, D. D., and Rulli, M. C.: Understanding the hydrology of armed conflicts in the Lake Chad Basin, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14834, 2023.

The Nile is the longest river in Africa and has historically been considered the longest river in the world, north-flowing into the Mediterranean Sea in north-eastern Africa. A research gap is still represented by the analysis of how discourses on food security may have shaped water management, power relationships, and hydro-social dynamics.  

The present contribution will focus on three main countries (Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan), with a particular focus on some emblematic events that happened in the last years, mainly related to the development of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the Ukrainian War and its impact on food security, and the recognition of the impacts of Climate Change at the Global level.

Discourse analysis is developed on a database of official documents generated in recent United Nations General Assemblies and Security Councils, based on the framework developed by Bréthaut et al., 2021. Discourses are defined as formal ways of thinking that can be expressed through language. They represent a way of organizing knowledge that structures the constitution of societal relations through the collective understanding of discursive logic and the acceptance of the discourse as a fact. The analysis of discourses created by different actors involved in a hydropolitical dispute, and the power of such discourses in shaping concepts and practices related to water management, can highlight and identify how hydropolitics evolve, and when, why, and how we can expect opportunities for cooperation, or threats of conflicts over water resources.

Bréthaut, C., Ezbakhe, F., McCracken, M., Wolf, A., & Dalton, J. (2021). Exploring discursive hydropolitics: a conceptual framework and research agenda. International Journal of Water Resources Development.

How to cite: Castelli, G. and Bréthaut, C.: Understanding the impact of recent crises on the hydropolitics and food security of the Nile River Basin: a discourse analysis , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1628, 2023.

Societies decide whether to try to protect themselves against floods (fight) or live with floods (adapt). Levees and levee systems are important factors in determining whether a society fights or adapts; however, these factors have been considered as fixed boundaries in previous studies. We analyse a levee system transformation process covering the past century, from the indigenous ring levee system to modern continuous levees, and the impacts of this changes on human-water dynamics in the Kiso River basin, Japan. In this study, historical maps were digitized to detect and analyze changes in the shape of the levee system over the past century in order to spatially and quantitatively analyze the characteristics of the historical landscape. In addition, we performed a quadratic trend and narrative analysis of several socio-hydrological variables.

The results reveal an interactive relationship between technologies and the human-flood system; the transformation of the levee system affects local communities and local culture, while social changes affect the local water management framework, including the levee system. With these interactions, Japanese society has shifted from adapting to and living with floods to fighting against them, thus characterizing the levee system transformation process. The relationship between a levee system transformation and the human-flood system can be represented as a causal loop diagram. First, the levee system transformation in the Kiso River basin shows that there is a trade-off between modern continuous levees and indigenous ring levees. The construction of continuous levees began with the opening of Japan and the westernization of society, and their development was accelerated by social and hydrological drivers/trends such as flooding, war-induced food shortages, industrialization, economic growth, and population growth/urbanization. The increased extension of continuous levees reduced the flooding frequency and reduces people’s memories of flooding . These changes led to an increased population within the floodplain, a decreased mitigation capacity for floods (decrease in the number of flood fighters), and decreased needs for ring levees. On the other hand, the 1976 flood ended this downwards trend in the extension of ring levees, and this reminder of floods potentially triggered a reevaluation of traditional technologies. In general, reevaluations of the versatility and flexibility of traditional or indigenous technologies have often emerged in the face of various water-related crises

This study provides a case of a paradigm shift in society from "adapting to" to "fighting" floods. In the process, these two different societal modes coexisted in one region, though the dominant society transitioned over time alongside technological transformations. These changes dramatically transformed underdeveloped societies, resulting in rapid economic growth while simultaneously causing extreme changes in the original dynamics of human-water interactions, thus generating different challenges. This study strongly suggests the need for water scientists to interdisciplinary observe the historical coevolution between human and water systems to accurately understand related dynamics and processes.

How to cite: Nakamura, S., Nakai, F., and Oki, T.: Levee system transformation and its impacts on the human-water system in the Kiso River Basin, Japan, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15847, 2023.

Flood maps are important for the floodplain communities to identify the inundation regions and to make future decisions related to their behavior. The understanding of the flood maps may vary based on several factors, including age, education, previous flood experiences, income level and the length of the residence. Based on the memory/understanding of the flood maps, the risk perception of the communities can change and it may affect the reaction against the impending disasters. The memory of the risk information provided by the flood maps decays over time and it is important to know about this decays process to initiate awareness programs at suitable intervals to increase the risk perception.

To understand the effect of flood maps on the floodplain communities, a study was conducted in the Lower Kelani River Basin (LKRB), Sri Lanka. LKRB is susceptible to frequent flood conditions. Under the changing climatic conditions, the frequency and intensity of floods may further increase in future. To realize the study objectives, maps with return periods of 10-yr, 50-yr and 100-yr were distributed to a selected sample from LKRB and their understanding was assessed based on 2 interview surveys. First survey was conducted in April 2022 after the distribution of flood maps and the second survey was conducted in October 2022 with the participation of the same set of respondents. A total of 124 responses were used for the analysis. The understanding of the flood maps was evaluated based on a defined criterion. Furthermore, the risk perception of the community was assessed during the Survey 1 and 2.

As per the results of the surveys, a significant decline of the memory of the flood maps was observed from Survey 1 to 2. The level of education showed a significant correlation with the memory of the flood map contents. Further, a clear improvement of the risk perception was identified during the Survey 2. The community actions and engagement following the map distribution was crucial to translate the risk perception to actual behavior.

How to cite: Perera, C. and Nakamura, S.: A survey of the effectiveness of flood maps on flood memory and risk perception: a case study from Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4083, 2023.

The expansion of irrigated agriculture and recurrent drought periods poses a serious threat to the renewability and sustainability of common water resources in arid and semi-arid regions. These shared resources can take the form of dam water which is shared between farmers according to a predefined schedule or groundwater which the farmers independently extract. The dam water is less expensive to use but this source can be limited in drought years risking crop productivity. Groundwater is a more reliable resource but is more expensive to extract and can cause soil salinity. Simulating agricultural management systems requires understanding and quantifying how biophysical and socio-economical constraints influence the decisions of farmers. Therefore, this research aimed to develop an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate farmer behaviour in irrigation management. The Theory of Planned Behaviour was used as a theoretical framework to simulate decision models that were integrated with a biophysical model describing the interaction of farmers with water resources and how limitations of water resources and salinity impact crop yield. Through modelling, we explore various strategies to improve sustainable water use. The methodology is applied to an irrigated perimeter of Al Haouz Basin, Morocco, as a case study, where there are different stakeholders and water user associations with conflicting objectives. The ABMs were parameterised using data collected by surveying 70 farmers. The findings indicate that the existing irrigation scheduling was usually satisfactory. However, with the exacerbation of drought periods, the use of dam water resources is unreliable. Farmers responded by seeking alternative water resources and changing their irrigation systems and cropping patterns which led to the potential of overexploitation of groundwater and increased accumulated salt content.

How to cite: El-Fartassi, I., Milne, A. E., El Alami, R., Metcalfe, H., Alonso-Chavez, V., Waine, T. W., Zawadzka, J., Diarra, A., and Corstanje, R.: An agent-based model of shared irrigation resources using the Theory of Planned Behaviour in arid and semi regions, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13395, 2023.

Smallholder farmers are critical to global food production and natural resource management. Due to increased competition for water resources and/or variability in rainfall due to climate change, chronic irrigation water scarcity is rising particularly in drought prone regions like Vidarbha, Maharashtra (India). Improving irrigation water efficiency is key to sustainable agricultural intensification. Research has recognized that the motivations of farmers to adopt such strategies can go beyond the standard assumptions of utility maximization towards social and cognitive parameters. Understanding such determinants in the local context can provide insight for the design of local advisory services to steer farmer behavior towards water efficient practices. This study analyzes these factors in the Vidarbha through a behavioral lens using econometric methods and a social survey conducted with 419 farmers. The results from the survey contribute to the understanding the factors behind adoption of efficient technologies and their underlying dynamics, which can drive the development of agricultural extension and policy for sustainable agricultural intensification.

How to cite: Adla, S., Šaponjić, A., Tyagi, A., Rajankar, P., Alam, M. F., Daniel, D., Pastore, P., Nagi, A., Alberto Ponce Pacheco, M., and Pande, S.: Understanding behavioral and socio-economic determinants of farmer adoption of efficient irrigation technologies, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16470, 2023.