CL4.8 | Storyline-based climate attribution, projection, process understanding, and impacts
EDI
Storyline-based climate attribution, projection, process understanding, and impacts
Convener: Helge Goessling | Co-conveners: Xavier Levine, Priscilla Mooney, Ryan WilliamsECSECS, Patrick Ludwig, Marylou Athanase, Antonio Sánchez BenítezECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 26 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
vHall CL
Orals |
Wed, 08:30
Thu, 10:45
Thu, 10:45
Simulations of past and future climate change remain limited by uncertainties, especially at spatial scales relevant for policy making. To provide more actionable climate information for risk assessments, climate storylines have become a popular approach to complement the probabilistic event attribution and climate projection. According to the latest IPCC-WG1 report, “the term storyline is used both in connection to scenarios or to describe plausible trajectories of weather and climate conditions or events”. Storylines are used to “explore uncertainties in climate change and natural climate variability, to develop and communicate integrated and context-relevant regional climate information, and to address issues with deep uncertainty, including low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes”.

Several flavours of storylines exist. One method attempts to attribute and project the climate signal in specific weather events in a climate model, using forcing and boundary conditions from different past, present, and possible future climates. This approach is used to quantify and explore thermodynamic climate effects while eliminating uncertain dynamical changes by constraining (nudging) the large-scale winds to reproduce the observed circulation. Another storyline method extracts possible and physically plausible (regional) climate change scenarios, conditional upon robustly simulated aspects of the climate system such as the large-scale dynamical response or the response of relevant climate modes, thereby disentangling the often-blurred multi-model mean response. Numerous storyline studies exist or are underway, ranging from global to regional (including pseudo-global-warming experiments) setups to local impacts, with both coupled or uncoupled (atmosphere or land-surface) models.

This session provides a forum to present and discuss the latest storyline-based climate research, and thereby to foster the exchange and collaboration in this fast-growing field. We invite contributions including but not limited to the approaches described above, using any analytical methods or modelling frameworks that seek to unravel climate change and, ultimately, provide actionable climate outcomes. Studies can range across spatial and temporal scales, and from fundamental considerations about the pros and cons of storyline approaches and how they relate to the probabilistic paradigm, to specific studies dealing with individual events, challenges, or other aspects of climate storylines.

Orals: Wed, 26 Apr | Room 0.31/32

Chairpersons: Helge Goessling, Xavier Levine, Marylou Athanase
08:30–08:40
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EGU23-17183
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CL4.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Linda van Garderen, Frauke Feser, Julia Mindlin, and Ted Shepherd

The impact of extreme weather events on society, as well as natural systems, have been increasingly damaging. Climate change has altered the frequency and intensity of these extremes. The question remains how quantifiable that influence is, so that society can prepare itself for the future, and reduce possible negative impacts.

Storylines are a conditional attribution method, that aids the understanding of climate change influence on extreme weather events, as well as mean climate change, by quantifying the climate signal. Instead of trying to estimate if or when a certain level of warming would happen, storylines show the effect such a climate change level would produce if it occurs. Conditioning on the dynamical part of the climate change signal strongly reduces uncertainties and makes the attribution quantifiable.

Generally speaking, there are two types of meteorological storylines, what IPCC AR6 refers to as dynamical and event storylines. Dynamical storylines can be evaluated through statistical analysis based on an ensemble of model simulations and used to characterize physically self-consistent mean climate change. Examples of climate change effect on southern-hemisphere precipitation will show how dynamic storylines can be applied. Event storylines recreate the dynamics of an extreme event in worlds with different plausible climate change backgrounds that are also physically self-consistent. The thermodynamic signal of climate change is quantified for the Russian heatwave of 2010. Overall, the storyline method is an important tool to be added to the standard climate change attribution toolbox.

How to cite: van Garderen, L., Feser, F., Mindlin, J., and Shepherd, T.: Attributing Extreme Weather Events and Mean Climate Change using Dynamical and Event Storylines, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17183, 2023.

08:40–08:50
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EGU23-15025
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CL4.8
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solicited
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Giuseppe Zappa, Marlene Kretschmer, and Theodore Shepherd
A number of unprecedented extreme late spring frosts has recently hit Western Europe, especially France, causing severe impacts on vineyards that had already undergone bud burst. Whether climate change may have contributed to making these events more likely is poorly understood, since it depends on a subtle balance between how much the phenological cycle anticipates due to winter warming and how much cold spring nights warm. Here we shed more light on the key driving factors behind observed changes by taking a novel approach in which the different components of past warming trends, i.e. mean warming, seasonal cycle changes, diurnal temperature changes and frequency of cold snaps, are isolated and separately analysed. Bud burst date is determined using a previously tested phenological model based on growing degree days. A statistical model is introduced to modulate the different components of warming and generate thousands of sample of plausible realisations of internal climate variability. The statistical model is fit to daily mean and night minimum temperature data in 1950-2022 from the ERA5 reanalysis and EOBS.
 
We show that in large parts of Europe even a simple seasonally and daily uniform warming leads to an increase in the risk of frosts after vineyard bud bursts. However, such simple thermodynamic effect is small compared to the observed changes in the frequency of such events. Including the effect of changes in the seasonal cycle, i.e. the winter warming amplification, and in the diurnal temperature range further increases frost risk, but it still explains only up to a third of the observed changes in the frost events. Likewise, changes in internal atmospheric variability are also insufficient to explain the observed trends. We demonstrate that only the increased frequency in an intra-seasonal  atmospheric circulation pattern causing warm winters followed by spring cold snaps, and acting on a warmed seasonal cycle, can explain the observed trends. We then analyse CMIP6 historical simulations to attribute the role of climate change versus internal climate variability. While mean warming and seasonal cycle changes are strongly influenced by climate change, the winter to spring swing in atmospheric circulation is more difficult to attribute and it may result from an extreme realisation of internal variability. We suggest that storylines can be used to illustrate plausible future risks for vineyards depending on the rate of regional warming and the type of circulation changes. 

How to cite: Zappa, G., Kretschmer, M., and Shepherd, T.: Drivers of the increased impact of extreme spring frosts on European vineyards, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15025, 2023.

08:50–09:00
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EGU23-9513
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CL4.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Julia Mindlin, Carolina S. Vera, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Marisol Osman

Summer rainfall trends in Southeastern South America (SES) have received a lot of attention in the past decades because of the socioeconomic impacts affecting an area where around 200 million people live. Literature identifies more than one driving mechanism for them, some of which have opposing effects. However, it is still not clear how much each mechanism has contributed to the observed trends or how their combined influence will affect future trends. In this work, we study SES summer rainfall future trends that can be explained by mechanisms related to large-scale extratropical circulation responses in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) to remote drivers of regional climate change. We find that regional uncertainty in SES during summer is well represented by combining the influence of four remote drivers, two of them characterizing tropical Pacific SST warming patterns, another one related to tropical upper tropospheric amplification of surface warming, and a fourth one related to the delay of the SH stratospheric polar vortex breakdown date. To do so, we quantify the contributions of the different remote drivers to SES rainfall trends and assess the sensitivity of circulation in SH to these drivers. Then, we analyze how the circulation response can mediate the relationship between regional precipitation changes and each of the remote driver responses. We use these quantifications and a storyline framework to answer the following research questions: 

  • Are all of the plausible scenarios for summer rainfall in the SES region characterized by wet conditions only? Is it possible that some plausible scenarios could also involve very weak wetting or even drying trends?
  • Can the differences between these contrasting scenarios be explained by variations in atmospheric circulation patterns forced by large-scale remote drivers?

By applying a storyline approach, the representation of uncertainty in summer precipitation trends in SES is improved and plausible drying scenarios are found in addition to the wetting ones. Our storyline approach is able to identify the highest impact storylines and deal with the complexity of working with four remote drivers. In addition, we show how the definition of the SES regional box can impact the results, given that if the spatial pattern characterizing the dynamical influences are complex and the impacts can be averaged out.

How to cite: Mindlin, J., Vera, C. S., Shepherd, T. G., and Osman, M.: Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer Rainfall in Southeastern South America: a storyline approach, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9513, 2023.

09:00–09:10
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EGU23-9533
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CL4.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Damián Insua-Costa, Marc Lemus-Cánovas, Martín Senande-Rivera, María del Carmen Llasat, Juan J. González-Alemán, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho

In early January 2021, an exceptional snowstorm hit Spain, causing widespread damage and chaos across the country. The extreme event was driven by the extratropical cyclone Filomena and left a snow cover of up to 50 cm in the capital, Madrid. In the days following the event, many media outlets hypothesized a link between the episode and climate change. Here we explore this link using a pseudo-global warming attribution approach. Specifically, we reproduce the event using the WRF regional atmospheric model forced with ERA5 reanalysis data. The thermodynamic fields, including temperature and humidity throughout the atmospheric column, skin temperature, and sea surface temperature, are perturbed using five different CMIP6 climate models in order to simulate the event in both a pre-industrial and a future (SSP5-8.5) scenario. In addition, the greenhouse gas concentrations are adjusted to their respective pre-industrial and future values, and the dynamic conditions (i.e., the atmospheric pattern) are fixed using a spectral nudging technique. We found that global warming affects snowfall amounts very unevenly across the country. At higher elevations and especially in northern areas, where the temperature increase is insufficient to convert snow to rain, the amount of snowfall increases due to a general increase in atmospheric water vapor available for precipitation. However, in lower elevations and especially in the south of the country, anthropogenic forcing results in a generalized reduction in snowfall amounts. Under an extreme future warming scenario, increases in snow water equivalent are found to be above +30% in many areas in the north, while in large parts of the south, snow is converted entirely to rain (-100%). Our results demonstrate that the effect of climate change on these cold and wet compound events is highly location-dependent, meaning that in one place the amount of snow recorded during one of these extreme events may increase due to warming, while in another place a few kilometres away the snow may disappear completely.

How to cite: Insua-Costa, D., Lemus-Cánovas, M., Senande-Rivera, M., Llasat, M. C., González-Alemán, J. J., and Miguez-Macho, G.: Linking the Filomena snowstorm event in Spain to global warming, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9533, 2023.

09:10–09:20
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EGU23-14387
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CL4.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Qiyun Ma, Xiaoxu Shi, Dmitry Sidorenko, Patrick Scholz, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in regulating global and regional climates, especially the European climate, as it affects northward heat transport. Climate model simulations project a decline in the strength of AMOC under future climate change, although high uncertainties exist across models. The potential slowdown of AMOC could cause large and rapid changes in the climate and is therefore regarded as a ‘low probability-high impact’ event. However, how a weakening AMOC affects temperature and precipitation extremes remains poorly understood. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model, a new version of the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM3), to quantify these impacts on Europe. We have performed freshwater hosing experiments to weaken the strength of AMOC and to investigate its sensitivity to different freshwater forcing regions. Our results reveal that the largest decline in AMOC generally appears when additional freshwater is put directly at regions of deepwater formation, especially around the Irminger Sea. As atmospheric responses, widespread cooling and less precipitation are found in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. We further identify the changes in precipitation and temperature extremes on different timescales. Droughts and cold days are very pronounced under AMOC attenuations, and we argue that they may have a stronger impact than the system's mean responses. Our results provide implications for understanding European weather and climate response to a weakening of AMOC in the past, present, and future.

How to cite: Ma, Q., Shi, X., Sidorenko, D., Scholz, P., Lohmann, G., and Ionita, M.: The role of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in modulating temperature and precipitation extremes over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14387, 2023.

09:20–09:30
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EGU23-14764
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CL4.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Joaquim Pinto, and Peter Braesicke

Besides ongoing research on general future climate changes, the actual attribution of changed climatic conditions on single extreme events becomes an important topic. The focus of this study is to place historical European temperature extremes into a warmer climate context using the storyline approach. Global storyline simulations show that local near-surface temperature anomalies during a heat wave can be significantly amplified compared to the mean global warming level. To refine these results and for a better process understanding, the storylines produced with the global model of the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI-CM1; also contributing to CMIP6) are dynamically downscaled with ICON-CLM to the EURO-CORDEX domain (12km) and subsequently nested into a extended Germany domain on convection-permitting scale (3km). After a validation of the present-day ICON-CLM simulation against reanalyses and observations, the dynamical downscaling of two storylines corresponding to the 2K and 4K global warming levels have been performed. In this study, we present results of a case study considering the development of the European heat wave of 2019 at different warming levels with focus on regional temperature anomalies and feedbacks that might cause them. Additionally, the results are compared to the classical EURO-CORDEX CMIP6 projections.

How to cite: Klimiuk, T., Ludwig, P., Ehmele, F., Pinto, J., and Braesicke, P.: Attribution of a warmer climate on temperature extremes over Europe using high-resolution storyline simulations with ICON-CLM, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14764, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14764, 2023.

09:30–09:40
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EGU23-5082
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CL4.8
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Taro Kunimitsu, Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Alessio Ciullo, Jana Sillmann, Theodore G. Shepherd, Ümit Taner, and Bart van den Hurk

Physical climate storylines, which are physically self-consistent unfoldings of events, have been powerful tools in understanding regional climate impacts. We show how embedding physical climate storylines into a causal network framework allows user value judgments to be incorporated into the storyline in the form of probabilistic Bayesian priors, and can support decision making through inspection of the causal network outputs.

We exemplify this through a specific storyline, namely a storyline on the impacts of tropical cyclones on the European Union Solidarity Fund. We outline how the constructed causal network can incorporate value judgments, particularly the prospects on climate change and its impact on cyclone intensity increase, and on economic growth. We also explore how the causal network responds to policy options chosen by the user. The resulting output from the network leads to individualized policy recommendations, allowing the causal network to be used as a possible interface for policy exploration in stakeholder engagements. 

How to cite: Kunimitsu, T., Baldissera Pacchetti, M., Ciullo, A., Sillmann, J., Shepherd, T. G., Taner, Ü., and van den Hurk, B.: Representing storylines with causal networks to support decision making, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5082, 2023.

09:40–09:50
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EGU23-11466
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CL4.8
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Erich Fischer, Urs Beyerle, Luna Bloin-Wibe, Claudia Gessner, Vincent Humphrey, Flavio Lehner, Angeline Pendergrass, Sebastian Sippel, Joel Zeder, and Reto Knutti

Recent unprecedented extremes such as the 2023 New Year’s winter warm spell in Europe, the 2022 summer heat and dryness in China and Europe, the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, the 2021 floods in northwestern Germany and the 2020 Siberian heat anomaly broke previous observed record intensities by large margins. Based on the observations up to the year before the event, some of these record-shattering extremes were inconceivable. Could the scientific community have better quantified the potential for such unseen events based on the current generation of climate models?

Here, we demonstrate how a new ensemble boosting approach can be used to generate physically coherent storylines of such unseen events. In ensemble boosting a fully-coupled free-running climate model (CESM2) is used to develop physical storylines of very rare extremes. To this end, the most extreme events in an initial-condition large ensemble for the near future are re-initialized with slightly perturbed atmospheric initial conditions to efficiently generate events with magnitudes unprecedented in the observational record.

We demonstrate that, with this approach, CESM2 can simulate events that e.g. substantially exceed the magnitude of the 2021 Pacific Northwest (PNW) heatwave anomaly. Even though the most extreme ensemble members were only selected based on the local temperature anomaly over the PNW region, they show a very similar temporal evolution and spatial pattern as the observed event. The associated 500hPa geopotential height anomaly is remarkably similar to the observed event with a strong anticyclone over PNW that is part of a wave pattern extending over much of the Northern Hemisphere. We further show that in some of the storylines pre-conditioning dry soils strongly contributed to the heatwave intensity, whereas in others, heatwaves of similar magnitude occur even at average land surface conditions.

We further develop storylines for heatwaves in the Greater Paris and Chicago regions of much greater intensities than ever observed. Particularly the US Midwest, where no intensification of heatwaves has been observed in recent decades, has not experienced anything close to the heatwave intensities possible in the coming years.

Finally, we demonstrate examples how ensemble boosting can also be used to generate storylines for multi-year drought events and large-scale heavy precipitation extremes and compare the findings to other storyline approaches. Event storylines based on ensemble boosting can be used in impact studies that require physical consistency across variables, e.g., for the evaluation of humid heatwaves or compound events, for assessing wildfire risks or for ecosystem modelling.

How to cite: Fischer, E., Beyerle, U., Bloin-Wibe, L., Gessner, C., Humphrey, V., Lehner, F., Pendergrass, A., Sippel, S., Zeder, J., and Knutti, R.: Probing the Unfathomable: Ensemble Boosting for Physical Climate Storylines of Unseen Extremes, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11466, 2023.

09:50–10:00
10:00–10:15

Posters on site: Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X5

Chairpersons: Ryan Williams, Patrick Ludwig, Priscilla Mooney
X5.232
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EGU23-1417
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CL4.8
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ECS
Eulàlia Baulenas, Gert Versteeg, Marta Terrado, Julia Mindlin, and Dragana Bojovic

Scenario-based approaches, including the concept of storylines, were introduced in climate science to provide unity of discourse, integrate the physical and socioeconomic components of phenomena, and make climate evolution more tangible. The use of storylines by multiple scholar communities and the novelty of some of its applications renders the concept ambiguous nonetheless, because the term hides behind a wide range of understandings and methodologies that often collide ontologically and epistemically. This semi-systematic literature review identifies three approaches that use storylines as a keystone concept: scenarios –familiar for their use in IPCC reports, discourse-analytical approaches, and physical climate storylines. After screening all peer-reviewed articles that mention climate and storylines, we selected 270 articles, with 158, 55, and 57 in each category. Results indicate that each community works with different methods and understandings. Moreover, these approaches have received criticism in their assembly of storylines: either for lacking explicitness or for the homogeneity of expertise involved. We propose that cross-pollination amongst the approaches could improve the goal to support climate action. Good practices are the involvement of a broader range of disciplines, use of mixed-methods, storyline assessment against a wider set of quality criteria, and stakeholder participation in key stages of the process.

How to cite: Baulenas, E., Versteeg, G., Terrado, M., Mindlin, J., and Bojovic, D.: Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate-related science, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1417, 2023.

X5.233
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EGU23-5133
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CL4.8
Sven Kotlarski, Alina Mastai, Kathrin Wehrli, and Erich M. Fischer

The heatwave of 2003, the flooding of 2005, the drought of 2018, or the snow-scarce winter of 2019/2020 are vivid examples of extreme weather events affecting Switzerland. The CH2018 climate scenarios for Switzerland show that such kind of events will become more intense in the future, depending on the future emission pathway and the considered time horizon. So far, CH2018-based information is typically communicated as changes in the mean or extremes of a climate variable, including the uncertainty of these changes. Presenting information in this manner is scientifically correct, but not tangible for everyone. Interested stakeholders often have difficulties to imagine what the future climate, and in particular how future extreme conditions might look like.

To enhance the uptake of CH2018 scenario information by stakeholders we here present a newly developed method to create similarity-based storylines and apply it to a historic heatwave event. The resulting storylines show local impacts in four different sectors at individual locations in Switzerland. In each case, the historical record-breaking heat summer of 2003 is related to a future extreme summer represented by the CH2018 scenarios assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Specific indicators help to create unique heat-related storylines. In the alpine setting of Davos, the number of dry hiking weather days increases in a future extreme summer to the delight of hikers and alpine summer tourism. In contrast, the southern cities of Sion and Geneva face less favorable prospects. The fire danger massively increases in dry locations such as Sion. The population in Geneva will encounter an even stronger heat exposure compared to 2003. Finally, the living conditions for a potent agricultural pest considerably improve throughout Switzerland, threatening agriculture during a similar future extreme.

The new similarity-based storylines facilitate the understanding of locally relevant processes linked to climate extremes, provide an improved insight into how extreme events quantitatively change with climate change, give examples of possible impacts, and finally try to stimulate public awareness for possible consequences of future climate change.

How to cite: Kotlarski, S., Mastai, A., Wehrli, K., and Fischer, E. M.: Similarity-based storylines of future climate extremes in Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5133, 2023.

X5.234
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EGU23-5164
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CL4.8
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ECS
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Marylou Athanase, Antonio Sánchez-Benítez, Helge Goessling, Felix Pithan, and Thomas Jung

Marine heatwaves are on the rise: their frequency, intensity, and duration are expected to increase in a warming world. Yet it remains unclear whether local feedback processes could amplify extreme ocean temperatures. A prominent marine heatwave recently occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in summer 2019, exhibiting the highest sea surface temperatures ever recorded in this area since the availability of satellite observations in 1979. Here, we use fully-coupled model experiments, termed “nudged storylines”, in which the evolution of large-scale winds in the free troposphere is nudged to the observed (reanalysed) one before and during the summer 2019 event, to generate close analogues of this record-breaking marine heatwave for past, present, and plausible future climates. We show in particular that future climate analogues of the marine heatwave may warm 50% more than what is expected from the projected global-mean ocean warming. Together with the rapid Northeast Pacific mean warming, air-sea feedback processes lead to a projected warming amplification of 1°C above the 1.9°C global-mean ocean temperature rise. Primary drivers of this amplification are a reduction in clouds and ocean mixed-layer depth, as well as anomalous air advection from fast-warming subpolar regions. Our results show that marine heatwave temperatures may warm substantially faster than the global and regional background temperature, increasing the stress on local ecosystems and fishery resources.

How to cite: Athanase, M., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H., Pithan, F., and Jung, T.: Projected amplification of summer marine heatwave intensity in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in a warming world, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5164, 2023.

X5.235
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EGU23-7354
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CL4.8
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ECS
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Lioba Martin, Edwin Haas, David Kraus, Rüdiger Grote, and Clemens Scheer

With an increasing probability of extreme events, their significance for agricultural production has also grown. Ecosystem models enable us to integrate current knowledge about plant-climate interactions with climate change scenarios. Since impacts of weather extremes differ depending on crop, intensity, length, and timing, a process-based approach is necessary to quantify to what extent extreme events impact agricultural production. We used the ecosystem model LandscapeDNDC to evaluate the effect of extreme conditions, like drought or intense heat waves, on agricultural production. We modified LandscapeDNDC to better account for heat stress by integrating a yield reduction function dependent on the timing and intensity of a heat wave and crop fatality due to stress overload. We validated the model performance using historical yield records at the regional scale.

In the second step, we applied pseudo-global-warming storylines to assess how the extreme heat wave of 2018 – 2022 would have affected yields of maize and wheat in a + 2 K warmer world. This exercise identifies which regions are most vulnerable regarding climate extremes and quantifies to what extent extreme climate events can affect crop yields compared to baseline conditions. Using process-based ecosystem models in combination with storyline-based climate projections is a promising approach to assess the impact of low-probability extreme weather events with a potentially high-impact outcome on agricultural production.

How to cite: Martin, L., Haas, E., Kraus, D., Grote, R., and Scheer, C.: Using pseudo-global-warming storylines and process-based ecosystem models for impact assessment of extreme events on agricultural production., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7354, 2023.

X5.236
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EGU23-7398
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CL4.8
Xavier Levine, Ryan Williams, Lise Seland Graff, and Priscilla Mooney

While polar amplification has been established as a defining feature of Arctic climate change, poor quantitative agreement among models remains when assessing its magnitude and spatial pattern. Here, we apply the storyline approach to a large ensemble of CMIP6 models, with the aim of distilling the wide spread in model predictions into four physically plausible outcomes of Arctic climate change. This is made possible by leveraging strong covariability in the climate system: specifically, we find that differences in Barents Sea warming and lower tropospheric warming among CMIP6 models explain most of the intermodel variability in pan-Arctic surface climate response to global warming. Based on this novel finding, we compare regional disparities in climate change across the four storylines, and discuss potential implications for modeling climate change impacts on ecosystems and human activities. 

How to cite: Levine, X., Williams, R., Seland Graff, L., and Mooney, P.: Devising storylines of Arctic climate change from a large ensemble of CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7398, 2023.

X5.237
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EGU23-8561
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CL4.8
Patrick Pieper, Donghe Zhu, Erich Fischer, and Stephan Pfahl

Extreme precipitation events cause major ecological and societal hazards (e.g. river flooding and landslides). Aggravatingly, climate change will likely exacerbate extreme precipitation events on a global scale. Scientifically even more concerning, however, are remaining major uncertainties in projections of regional extreme precipitation events, which hamper and complicate local adaptation measurements around the globe. The arguably largest source of these remaining uncertainties stems from climate models feuding about the dynamic evolution of atmospheric circulation; atmospheric circulation governs moisture transport and profoundly affects the location of extreme precipitation events as well as their severity around the globe. We exploit this feud among climate models to narrow down the arguably largest source of uncertainttiesin projections of extreme precipitation events through a storyline approach. For a given location, the approach: (i) unravels the properties of driving weather systems that repeatedly gave rise to extreme precipitation events in the past, (ii) assesses the fidelity of a large suite of models, participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), in representing these driving weather systems in historical simulations (1950-2015), and (iii) constrains regional projections of extreme precipitation events based on the ascertained fidelity of models.

Here, we present such a storyline approach that dynamically constrains regional projections of extreme precipitation events. Accompanying the outline of the approach, we identify regions that are particularly plagued by uncertain projections of extreme precipitation events and showcase for a subset of these regions how to track down weather systems that repeatedly gave rise to extreme precipitation events in the past.

How to cite: Pieper, P., Zhu, D., Fischer, E., and Pfahl, S.: Dynamical Constraints on regional Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8561, 2023.

X5.238
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EGU23-9368
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CL4.8
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ECS
Antonio Sánchez Benítez, Marylou Athanase, Thomas Jung, Felix Pithan, and Helge Goessling

Siberia experienced an exceptionally warm first half of 2020, with temperatures peaking on 20th June, when the weather station at Verkhoyansk registered 38ºC – the highest-ever temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. This event led to a state of emergency declaration due to a wide range of natural and human disasters, including permafrost collapse or wildfires. Several previous attribution studies have found anomalous synoptic atmospheric circulation and human-caused climate change as major drivers of this event. However, it remains unclear how such an event would unfold in warmer climates.

In this work, we have constructed analogues of this extreme event in past and future climates, so-called “storylines”, employing spectral nudging experiments using the coupled climate model AWI-CM1. In these simulations, large-scale free-troposphere winds are constrained toward ERA5 data, and the model is run for different boundary and initial conditions (pre-industrial, present, +2K, +3K, +4K climates). By doing so, this approach focuses on the less uncertain thermodynamic influence of climate on extreme events, constraining the much more uncertain dynamical changes.

Our present-climate simulations realistically reproduce the observed Siberian heatwave and the exceptionally warm conditions before the event. When the different background climates are considered, on the one hand, a robust global warming amplification is obtained until spring. On the other hand, a future global warming dampening or even local cooling is observed in phase with the heatwave peak. We examine the mechanisms that damp warming during the heatwave analogue, especially changes in soil moisture and radiative fluxes. 

How to cite: Sánchez Benítez, A., Athanase, M., Jung, T., Pithan, F., and Goessling, H.: Storyline simulations suggest dampening of 2020 Siberian heatwave analogues in warmer climates, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9368, 2023.

X5.239
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EGU23-13928
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CL4.8
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ECS
Ryan Williams, Gareth Marshall, Xavier Levine, Lise Graff, and Priscilla Mooney

The manifestation of regional changes in climate at high latitudes is notoriously uncertain according to climate models, aside from the expected polar amplification of the global warming trend. This poses a particular issue for policymakers in designing targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies, in limiting the impact of human-induced climate change. The leading mode of uncertainty arises from the unknown response of the atmospheric circulation to global warming, resulting from inconsistencies in the model representation of key physical processes, which are typically parameterised as they operate on sub-grid spatial scales. 

Using the latest suite of state-of-the-art climate models as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a storyline approach is adopted to derive physically plausible scenarios of climate change over Antarctica and adjacent regions of the Southern Ocean for the end-of-the-century (2070-2099), according to both emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. We identify two robust features of climate change simulated across all models known to lead to a strengthening and poleward displacement of the eddy-driven mid-latitude jet: (1) the decline in Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent and (2) the strengthening of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex and delayed summertime breakdown. Whilst the response of these two aspects is consistent in sign, a large intermodel spread exists in terms of magnitude. Using a multi-linear regression framework, we generate storylines of climate change conditional upon the magnitude of change in each driver centred around the multi-model mean response. We examine the response of both the near-surface climate (Southern Annular Mode, air temperature, precipitation) and Southern Ocean (SSTs, salinity and mixed layer depth) for both an extended austral summer (DJFM) and winter season (JJA). Through ancillary evaluations of model historical performance with respect to ERA-5 reanalysis over the 1985-2014 period, including investigation of both prognostic and diagnostic variables, the presented storylines are refined to help minimise the impact of model deficiencies in affecting the realism of the generated storylines. Our results highlight the merit of using the storyline approach to identify future potential scenarios of regional climate response and constrain uncertainty in Antarctic climate predictions. Storyline impact assessments for the Southern Ocean marine ecosystem, particularly the ecologically sensitive South Scotia Sea region, will later be investigated within the EU Horizon 2020 ‘PolarRES’ project through storyline-guided downscaling experiments using regional climate models.  

How to cite: Williams, R., Marshall, G., Levine, X., Graff, L., and Mooney, P.: Storylines of Southern Hemisphere climate change from CMIP6: Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13928, 2023.

X5.240
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EGU23-15532
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CL4.8
Helge Goessling

Climate is defined by the statistics of the weather. We are thus used to the notion that weather depends on climate in the sense that a weather state is a quasi random realization drawn from the climatological distribution of weather states. Consequently, weather obviously also depends on climate change. Here it is argued that it can be very instructive to consider this dependence the other way around and to investigate how climate change depends on the weather. More specifically, the question is how different parts of the climatological distribution change, depending on certain relevant characteristics of the weather. For example, one may ask how the climate at some time of the year and at some location changes between a pre-industrial and a globally +4K warmer climate, considering only days where the local winds at some height blow from a specific direction. Alternatively, one may investigate how the climate change pattern differs between certain large-scale atmospheric circulation regimes, such as NAO+ and NAO- situations. While such conditional climate change analyses can be based for example on reanalysis or CMIP-type climate model data, a more extreme variant are storyline simulations where the evolution of the large-scale circulation is imposed in a climate model using different climate backgrounds, allowing to assess climate change conditional on a specific evolution of the large-scale circulation. Storyline simulations inevitably ignore possible changes in the likelihood of circulation patters. In contrast, analyses based on sufficiently large samples of reanalysis or CMIP-type data also allow for quantifying changes in likelihoods and constitute a proper decomposition of the complete (unconditional) climate change signal. Here the concept of weather-dependent climate change is explained and its potential to help unravel the complexities of climate change is demonstrated.

How to cite: Goessling, H.: Weather-dependent climate change, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15532, 2023.

X5.241
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EGU23-7889
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CL4.8
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ECS
Raphael Köhler, Marylou Athanase, Xavier Levine, Ryan Williams, and Céline Heuzé

The Beaufort Gyre is a major reservoir of freshwater in the Arctic Ocean and plays an important role in shaping the sea ice distribution. The variations in Beaufort Gyre strength, and its capacity to accumulate or release freshwater, are primarily determined by the stationary Beaufort High pressure system. Multiple studies have suggested a potential future weakening of the Beaufort High, thus driving a projected weakening of the Beaufort Gyre. Yet, in contrast, the ongoing reduction and thinning of the Arctic sea ice has been shown to strengthen the Gyre in recent years – a trend likely to continue into the future. 

We investigate these potentially competing effects of projected sea ice decline and changing atmospheric patterns on the Beaufort Gyre location, extent, and strength. To this end, we employ a novel storyline approach to identify plausible fates of the Beaufort Gyre in a warming climate, generated from the suite of available CMIP6 models. The different storylines are determined based on the strong or weak modelled response to these two local drivers - Arctic sea ice decline and Beaufort High pressure system weakening - on changes in Beaufort Gyre strength. While the CMIP6 multi-model mean response in the location, extent and strength of the Beaufort Gyre does not exhibit any distinct future changes under emission scenario SSP585, the storylines however reveal contrasting futures. For example, in a future with strong sea ice decline but only a weak decrease of Beaufort High pressure, the storyline indicates a spin-up of the Beaufort Gyre alongside a strong Arctic-wide surface salinity reduction. In contrast, a future with weak sea ice decline but a strong Beaufort High pressure decrease is characterised by a slow-down of the Beaufort Gyre and more regionally confined surface salinity changes. The storyline approach thus highlights that we urgently need to better constrain our model projections in order to reliably predict changes in upper Arctic ocean circulation and freshwater distribution, which play a crucial role for the future Arctic climate and response of both marine and terrestrial ecosystems. 

How to cite: Köhler, R., Athanase, M., Levine, X., Williams, R., and Heuzé, C.: Fates of the Beaufort Gyre: Location, Extent and Strength, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7889, 2023.

Posters virtual: Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | vHall CL

Chairperson: Antonio Sánchez Benítez
vCL.13
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EGU23-12905
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CL4.8
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Reyko Schachtschneider and Jan Saynisch-Wagner

Climate change has drastic impact on our lives and many socio-economic parameters. The exact consequences are hard to quantify and in general not obvious and not clear to the general public. In this work we use the storyline scenarios from within the SCENIC project for the prediction of various socio-economic parameters in warmer climates. We use machine learning algorithms to investigate how parameters that have direct impacts on society and the population develop in different warmer world scenarios. For this purpose we train echo state networks. Input data are temperature and humidity fields over Europe. Output data are time series of, e.g., mortality rates, forest fires, crop yield, and consumer price indices from Germany. The output data are predicted under the investigated climate scenarios of +2K and +4K with respect to pre-industrial time.

How to cite: Schachtschneider, R. and Saynisch-Wagner, J.: Downscaling climate change impacts on socio-economic parameters in a storyline-based investigation, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12905, 2023.