ESSI2.10 | First steps towards Destination Earth
EDI
First steps towards Destination Earth
Convener: Claudia Vitolo | Co-conveners: Joern Hoffmann, Danaele Puechmaille
Orals
| Wed, 26 Apr, 16:15–17:55 (CEST)
 
Room 0.51
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
vHall ESSI/GI/NP
Orals |
Wed, 16:15
Thu, 08:30
Thu, 08:30
Destination Earth (DestinE) is an ambitious initiative of the European Union aiming to develop – on a global scale - a highly accurate digital model of the Earth that will help understand and simulate the evolution in the state of our planet, better predict impact on human system processes, ecosystem processes and their interaction.

DestinE will exploit state-of-the-art technologies, including high-performance computing, high-resolution Earth system models and novel approaches in analytics, including artificial intelligence, and offer unprecedented interactivity with the system for users.

A number of tangible outcomes are expected from these developments: Earth system simulations will become more skillful, the intensity and magnitude of natural disasters will be predicted more reliably, decision makers will have tools to tackle more efficiently the effect of climate change and much more.

Work is currently ongoing by the three implementing agencies (ESA, EUMETSAT, ECMWF) to develop the three components of the DestinE system: the Core Service Platform, the Data Lake and the Digital Twin Engine. This session aims at presenting progress towards the implementation of the DestinE system. It will also highlight opportunities to contribute to this challenging and ambitious endeavor and co-evolve the system together.

Orals: Wed, 26 Apr | Room 0.51

Chairpersons: Claudia Vitolo, Joern Hoffmann, Danaele Puechmaille
16:15–16:25
16:25–16:35
|
EGU23-13018
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ESSI2.10
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On-site presentation
Jenni Kontkanen, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Paolo Davini, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Barbara Früh, Jost von Hardenberg, Thomas Jung, Heikki Järvinen, Jan Keller, Daniel Klocke, Sami Niemelä, Bjorn Stevens, Stephan Thober, and Pekka Manninen

Climate change is expected to have far reaching impacts on human and natural systems during the 21stcentury. To guide policy decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation, there is a need for developing new types of climate information systems that can provide timely information on regional and local impacts of climate change. The European Commission’s Destination Earth (DestinE) programme aims towards this by developing high precision digital twins (DT) of the Earth. We present here the overview of one of the two first priority DTs, Climate Change Adaptation DT. The Climate DT will encompass a pre-exascale climate information system that can support climate change adaptation efforts.

The Climate DT harnesses two different kilometer-scale Earth-system models (ESMs), ICON and IFS-FESOM/NEMO. The models will be adapted to two EuroHPC pre-exascale computing systems: LUMI that is currently in operation in Kajaani, Finland, and Mare Nostrum 5 that will be available during 2023 in Barcelona, Spain.

The Climate DT introduces the idea of a generic state vector (GSV), which is evolved by the ESMs and streamed to applications. This enables the ESMs to work at an unprecedented scale (multi-decadal simulations on 5km or finer global meshes) and thus improves the fidelity of the information the models provide as well as its relevance for the users.  This approach also creates the basis for an information system that can scale across an unlimited number of applications and enable interactivity during the future phases of DestinE.

Use cases from different impact sectors are implemented within Climate DT as applications that operate on the streamed GSV. The Climate DT will explore five use cases which will provide information on (1) wind energy supply and demand, (2) wildfire risk and emissions, (3) river flows, (4) hydrometeorological extreme events, and (5) heat stress in urban environments. Additional applications operating on the GSV include a quality assessment and uncertainty quantification framework, used for monitoring and evaluation of the GSV. This framework will utilize observational operators to evaluate the GSV against observational data, and in so doing enable the use of tools from numerical weather prediction for quality assessment and observation-based model tuning.

In this presentation, we will give an overview of the Climate DT, describing the objectives for the first phase, technical design of the DT, and the progress made so far. The use cases and the new possibilities provided by the streaming of the GSV are discussed in more detail by Doblas-Reyes et al., and the development of the digital infrastructure for Climate DT by Narayanappa et al.

How to cite: Kontkanen, J., Acosta, M., Bretonnière, P.-A., Castrillo, M., Davini, P., Doblas-Reyes, F., Früh, B., von Hardenberg, J., Jung, T., Järvinen, H., Keller, J., Klocke, D., Niemelä, S., Stevens, B., Thober, S., and Manninen, P.: Climate Digital Twin to support climate change adaptation efforts, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13018, 2023.

16:35–16:45
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EGU23-6365
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ESSI2.10
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On-site presentation
Benoît Vannière, Irina Sandu, Estibaliz Gascon, Richard Forbes, Inna Polichtchouk, Annelize Van Niekerk, Birgit Suetzl, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Bechtold, and Gianpaolo Balsamo

This presentation gives an overview of the work undertaken at ECMWF, in the  Destination Earth initiative of the European Comission, to build the global continuous component of the Weather-induced and Geophysical Extremes Digital Twin (Extremes DT) of the Earth. The Extremes DT aims to forecast and monitor extreme weather, globally, at a range of around 5 days, with unprecedented fidelity.

The Extremes DT utilizes the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System cycle 48r1, with the Tco2559 grid, which has a horizontal resolution of 4.5 km. Our evaluation strategy is based on both 5-day forecasts of extreme weather cases and forecasts initialized daily over one summer and winter seasons. The performance of these simulations is compared to that of ECMWF’s operational deterministic 9km forecasts, using the following metrics: forecast skill as compared to the operational analysis or the observations, and ability to capture extreme weather events.

The results show a clear added-value of higher resolution for near-surface fields and the predicted precipitation amounts in regions of high orography. However, some aspects of the forecasts, which were initially degraded, have required additional developments and tunings. For instance, the atmospheric circulation over the Tibetan plateau has a clear dependence on time-step and resolution, which is linked to the treatment of the mean and sub-grid orography, as well as the representation of orographic gravity waves. Additionally, temperature biases in the lower troposphere in the Tropics are likely due to the sensitivity of moist physics to the model time-step. We will present the choices made to reduce those biases. 

This work can offer valuable insights into strategies for evaluating and improving kilometric-scale Earth System Models.

 

How to cite: Vannière, B., Sandu, I., Gascon, E., Forbes, R., Polichtchouk, I., Van Niekerk, A., Suetzl, B., Diamantakis, M., Bechtold, P., and Balsamo, G.: Towards a Digital Twin of the Earth: ECMWF's effort to build a Kilometre-scale Earth System Model, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6365, 2023.

16:45–16:55
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EGU23-6122
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ESSI2.10
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On-site presentation
Roger Randriamampianina and the On-Demand Extremes Digital Twin Team

Destination Earth (DE) On-Demand Extremes Digital Twin (DT) (DE_330_MF) offers configurable digital twin engines for forecasting environmental extremes at a sub-km scale. DE_330_MF aims at providing an on-demand workflow with co-design of high resolution predictions about extreme weather events combined with decision making support for impact sectors including hydrology, air quality and energy meteorology, with the use of a physics-based and data driven model system and computationally-intensive data-flow organised on the EuroHPC high performance computing platform. 

The DE_330_MF core software system is developed in four parts. Firstly, code adaptation needed for running on hybrid CPU and accelerator architectures will be done. Here, our most computationally intensive parts will be optimised for running on accelerators at the end of the first phase. Secondly, our modelling system is being adapted for running on a sub-km grid scale in an efficient on-demand setup. During phase 1 we primarily use operationally and pre-operationally mature components. Tailor-made modules targeted on impact modelling (e.g. wind energy) will be implemented as well. Thirdly, we work on post-processing of the model output, so that this can be distilled into a limited number of variables essential for end-users including uncertainty quantification for these variables. The approaches will be tailor-made for the specific targeted types of extreme events. Triggers for detecting extreme events are being developed as part of the post-processing work. Fourthly, and very importantly, we are designing and developing workflow management tools and scripting for the core software. Input and output data are also managed, with a particular focus on the exploitation of using high-density observations in high-resolution weather forecasting and verification. Overall we aim at running a hectometric scale On-Demand Extremes DT with a typical resolution of 750 or 500 m, exploring a finer resolution of up to 200 m for special applications where it is meaningful. In the first phase, capability demonstration is the focus by examining a range of carefully selected high-impact cases for the three above-mentioned impact areas, as well as other applications such as agriculture. The goal here is to explore the added values with co-designing workflow combining the on-demand, event- or user-driven solutions with weather forecasting on the one hand, and impact sectors on the other hand, in an integrated value chain for decision-making support. In this effort, containerised solutions, including one hydrological and two air quality models, will run next (one way coupling) to the on-demand extremes DT.

This work is funded by the EU under agreement DE_330_MF between ECMWF and Météo-France. The on-demand capability proposed by the Météo-France led international partnership is a key component of the weather-induced extremes digital twin, which ECMWF will deliver in the first phase of Destination Earth, launched by the EC.

How to cite: Randriamampianina, R. and the On-Demand Extremes Digital Twin Team: Destination Earth On-Demand Extremes Digital Twin, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6122, 2023.

16:55–17:05
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EGU23-7177
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ESSI2.10
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On-site presentation
Jordi Duatis Juarez, Michael Schick, Danaele Puechmaille, Miruna Stoicescu, and Borys Saulyak

Destination Earth is an operational service under the lead of the European Commission being implemented jointly by ESA, ECMWF and EUMETSAT.

The presentation will provide insights into the EUMETSAT Data Lake Service component of the Destination Earth undertaking.

The objective of the European Commission’s Destination Earth (DestinE) initiative is to deploy several highly accurate digital replicas of the Earth (Digital Twins) in order to monitor and simulate natural as well as human activities and their interactions, to develop and test “what-if” scenarios that would enable more sustainable developments and support European environmental policies. DestinE addresses the challenge to manage and make accessible the sheer amount of data generated by the Digital Twins and observation data located at external sites such as the ones depicted in the figure below. This data will be made available fast enough and in a format ready to support analysis scenarios proposed by the DestinE service users.

 

Figure:  DestinE Data Sources (green) and Stakeholders (orange)

 

The “DestinE Data Lake” (DEDL) is one of the three Destination Earth components interacting with:

  • the Digital Twin Engine (DTE), which runs the simulation models, under ECMWF responsibility
  • the DestinE Core Service Platform (DESP), which represents the user entry point to the DestinE services and data, under ESA responsibility

The DestinE Data Lake (DEDL) fulfils the storage and access requirements for any data that is offered to DestinE users. It provides users with a seamless access to the datasets, regardless of data type and location. Furthermore, the DEDL supports big data processing services, such as near-data processing to maximize throughput and service scalability. The data lake is built inter alia upon existing data lakes such as Copernicus DIAS, ESA, EUMETSAT, ECMWF as well as complementary data from diverse sources like federated data spaces, in-situ or socio-economic data. The DT Data Warehouse is a sub-component of the DEDL which stores relevant subsets of the output from each  digital twin (DT) execution being powered by ECMWFs Hyper-Cube service.

How to cite: Duatis Juarez, J., Schick, M., Puechmaille, D., Stoicescu, M., and Saulyak, B.: Destination Earth Data Lake, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7177, 2023.

17:05–17:15
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EGU23-1370
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ESSI2.10
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On-site presentation
Inés Sanz-Morère and Kathrin Hintze

Destination Earth (DestinE) Initiative is a programme of the European Commission’s DG-CNECT directorate for developing and exploiting a highly accurate digital model of the Earth, with the objectives of monitoring and predicting the interactions between natural phenomena and human activities. This initiative will support the European Commission to achieve the sustainable development objectives and will contribute to the European Green Deal and Digital Strategy. Along with the two entrusted entities ECMWF and EUMETSAT, ESA contributes in DestinE development and implementation. Concretely, ESA is responsible of developing the platform serving as single access point to users to DestinE ecosystem. DestinE Core Service Platform (DESP) integrates and operates an open ecosystem of services (also referred to as DESP Framework) to support DestinE-data exploitation and information sharing for the benefit of DestinE users and Third-Party entities. The industrial activity presented here corresponds to the starting point for DESP development. It includes the setup and definition of DESP Framework, as well as the implementation of key essential services such as user identification, authentication, and authorization service; infrastructure as a service with storage, network, and CPU/GPU capabilities; data access and retrieval service, in particular from the DestinE Data Lake operated by EUMETSAT, as it is the backbone for the data generated by ECMWF’s Digital Twin Engine; data traceability and harmonization services; basic software suite service for local data exploitation; data and software catalogue services; and 2D/3D data visualization service.

How to cite: Sanz-Morère, I. and Hintze, K.: DestinE Core Service Platform Framework, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1370, 2023.

17:15–17:25
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EGU23-12669
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ESSI2.10
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On-site presentation
Antonio Romeo, Jolanda Patruno, Efstratios Stylianidis, Eleni Karachaliou, Aikaterini Bakousi, Zachary Smith, and Rob Carrillo

The DestinE Use Cases Project, executed by a Consortium led by RHEA Group with the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and Trust-IT, regards the selection and implementation of a first set of Use Cases meant to demonstrate the ability of the DestinE infrastructure in general, and the DestinE Service Platform (DESP) in particular, to provide actionable information and decision support to its end-users. The project aims also at actively engaging the broad community of DestinE stakeholders, gathering their requirements, and encouraging their direct involvement and guidance in the continuous evolution of the DestinE infrastructure towards the future Phases of the Initiative.

The establishment of a strong (both in terms of numbers of members and interactions) and vibrant DestinE User Community seems crucial in informing the successful and well targeted development and initial operations of the DESP as well as guiding the evolution and sustainability of the platform in later phases of DestinE to respond to the priorities set by European and International policy frameworks. The aim is to create a network where the continuous interactions amongst users/developers as well as stakeholders/partners will enhance the development and improvement of DestinE capabilities, but also catalyse cross-sectorial collaborations. This community will be cοmprised by multiple and diverse types of stakeholders including scientists, policy makers, industry representatives and the general public which are split in Communities of Practice per Use Case (i.e. groups of members who share a common interest in a particular domain area or scientific topic).

The community building activities follow a step-wise methodology to define Why (the objectives), What (the content), to Whom (the target/ stakeholder groups), Where (all channels and tools) and How (i.e. strategies, tools and channels suitable for each group). It also includes an action plan (When) along with clear quantitative targets and monitoring mechanisms, allowing also for ad-hoc and on-demand actions.

An open, transparent and inclusive invitation process is established that aims to embrace new members and various levels of participation. Formal community governance structure appoints key instances required for successful community management while standards and rules define how members participate and interact with one another encouraging for contributions made by all.

A DestinE Community Portal will be launched which intends to be the central hub for prospective users and downstream developers to interact with the initiative. It will showcase open calls for DestinE use cases and showcase funded ones and a requirements gathering area to allow the community to help co-develop solutions. It will also contain an early-stage Marketplace page of datasets, tools and apps, a developer section, a catalogue of DestinE-related projects, tools and results, and an e-Learning platform. For outreach, a “DestinE Roadshow” series will promote DestinE in various events, webinars and policy dialogues.

How to cite: Romeo, A., Patruno, J., Stylianidis, E., Karachaliou, E., Bakousi, A., Smith, Z., and Carrillo, R.: Towards building a vibrant DestinE User Community, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12669, 2023.

17:25–17:35
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EGU23-13132
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ESSI2.10
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Bruno Schyska, Andrzej Ceglarz, Léa Hayez, Alexander Kies, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, and Wided Medjroubi

In liberalized electricity markets, the planning and operation of the electricity grids, often, is done by private companies under the control of a public authority. Following their mandates, the European transmission system operators for electricity implement, among other analyses, national grid extension plans, the Europe-wide Ten-Year Network Development Plan and the European Resources Adequacy Assessment. To achieve evidence-based decision-making, they rely on the best-available meteorological and/or climatological information on a variety of scales, from the local distribution grid level to the European transmission system, and from short-term forecasts for the operation to climate scenarios for investment decisions. Here, the capabilities of the new DestinE Digital Twin on climate adaption can make a significant impact. It is expected that the explicit modelling of physical processes on the storm- and cloud-resolving scale also leads to a more realistic and accurate representation of the solar and wind resources. This offers great opportunities for improved energy system modelling and opens the door for new innovative approaches for adding the analysis of climate information into standard modelling workflows applied in the energy sector. However, there is a lack of knowledge about available meteorological data sets, their characteristics and the implications of using different data sets for grid planning and adequacy assessment activities in the user community. Standardized tools and methods to add the analysis of climate change and/or climate uncertainty to user workflows rarely exist. This hinders energy system modelers to make full use of the available meteorological information and, consequently, prevents users from tapping the full potential of the data. As energy systems become more dependent on weather, and as the uncertainties about climate change impacts rise, the operation and planning of integrated energy systems becomes an increasingly complex task.

Aim of this presentation is the introduction of a DestinE Use Case for the energy sector jointly implemented by DLR, the Renewables Grid Initiative (RGI) and Aarhus University. This Use Case will develop a representative Demonstrator exemplarily showcasing the use of climate information in the energy sector for grid planning and resources adequacy assessment purposes, and equip the user community with the tools, methods and the knowledge needed to ensure the safe and clean supply of energy in Europe in accordance with the Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and the European Union’s “Fit for 55” goals.

How to cite: Schyska, B., Ceglarz, A., Hayez, L., Kies, A., Schroedter-Homscheidt, M., and Medjroubi, W.: Adapting Energy Systems to a Changing Climate - A Destination Earth Use Case, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13132, 2023.

17:35–17:45
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EGU23-9262
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ESSI2.10
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On-site presentation
Albrecht Weerts, Kun Yan, and Frederiek Sperna Weiland

Coastal deltas are extremely susceptible to flooding from sea, rivers, heavy rain and even more severe combinations thereof. Many coastal deltas are densely populated, and flood risk forms a serious threat that will likely increase in the future. There are two main mechanisms to reduce the devastating impacts of these floods; (1) adaptation to the increasing climate risks and (2) improved early warning and emergency response. We will present the Destination Earth digital twin on coastal compound flood inundation forecasting and climate adaptation.

This digital replica of the delta will connect DE data to impact models and will generate user oriented actionable output. High-resolution meteorological forecasts and regular updated climate scenarios form the input for regional coastal and inland models that provide boundary conditions for local models. Local models are used for simulation of small-scale hydrological processes, high-resolution 2D compound flood inundation and impact on population and buildings.  A flexible data post-processing routine, to be co-designed with the end-users, will be implemented to translates model results into actionable context-specific information. It will, for example, produce flood inundation and risk maps as well as other user-requested indicators. For the climate adaptation component, the system will allow users to run WhatIf scenarios to explore adaptation measures. The data products will be disseminated to the users via Web-API, WEB-mapping service or through (S)FTP, depending on the users’ preferences.

We will outline and demonstrate our digital twin that serves both flood impact reduction mechanisms, i.e. climate adaptation and forecasting extremes.  We will highlight end users’ needs and requirement that are involved through co-creation/design of the service.

 

How to cite: Weerts, A., Yan, K., and Sperna Weiland, F.: Compound flood forecasting and climate adaptation Destination Earth digital twin, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9262, 2023.

17:45–17:55
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EGU23-15975
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ESSI2.10
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Anne Caroline Lange, Philipp Franke, Sabine Schröder, Felix Kleinert, Niklas Selke, Elmar Friese, and Martin G. Schultz

Extreme air pollution events of high concentrated surface ozone (O3) or particulate matter (PM) pose a lethal threat to humans worldwide. To investigate air quality under extreme atmospheric situations, the DestinE-AQ use case develops a comprehensive user interface that enables high resolution air quality forecasts and analysis by combining numerical simulations, machine learning approaches and observations. The core of the system encloses access to the open database of global air quality observations (i.e. the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report data base, TOAR), innovative machine learning workflows (e.g. MLAir, IntelliO3-ts) including downscaling modules, and high resolution numerical simulations using the state of the art chemistry transport model EURAD-IM (EURopean Air pollution Dispersion- Inverse Model). The aspired air quality forecasts and analyses will dynamically be driven by the DestinE Digital Twin for weather extremes. Thus, the pursued horizontal resolution of the air quality simulations is identical to the resolution of the DestinE digital twin (< 1 km2).

To provide reliable air quality analyses, the system makes use of observational data in both the machine learning tools and EURAD-IM by enabling 3D-var data assimilation. While focusing on Europe, the system will demonstrate how observations and physics-based and data-driven models can be woven together to achieve enhanced realism and finer resolution of air pollution information and thus provide better support to decision makers. The system is complemented by an efficient ensemble module that enables emission scenario simulations to test and develop air pollution mitigation strategies for future extreme events under realistic conditions. The development of the user interface is done in close cooperation with the German and North Rhine-Westphalian Environment Agencies to meet the end users’ needs. The system will provide detailed information about air quality, its underlying chemical processes, the influence of meteorological extreme events, and the impacts of anthropogenic emissions on air quality. Hence, it will also serve the scientific community to answer questions on air quality and atmospheric chemical processes under extreme weather conditions that are expected to increase in future. To allow for the investigation of the human impact of extreme events, the DestinE-AQ focuses on the key air pollutants PM2.5, nitrogen oxides (NOx), and O3 in the planetary boundary layer. The potential combination of the system with socio-economic and medical models will be evaluated.

How to cite: Lange, A. C., Franke, P., Schröder, S., Kleinert, F., Selke, N., Friese, E., and Schultz, M. G.: DestinE-AQ: High-resolution air quality forecast, analysis, and scenario simulations coupled to the Digital Twin of DestinE, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15975, 2023.

Posters on site: Thu, 27 Apr, 08:30–10:15 | Hall X4

Chairpersons: Claudia Vitolo, Joern Hoffmann, Danaele Puechmaille
Software infrastructure components
X4.164
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EGU23-13856
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ESSI2.10
Domokos Sármány, Philipp Geier, Mirco Valentini, Simon Smart, James Hawkes, and Tiago Quintino

Traditionally, in numerical weather prediction, the computational cost of performing floating-point operations (flops) has been the primary concern. However, in the past couple of decades throughput to storage has become a significant bottleneck – a phenomenon often referred to as the input/output (I/O) performance gap. ECMWF runs time-critical operational weather forecasts four times a day, where the entire workflow of each run must complete within one hour. A single run currently produces around 30TiB of data, and it is expected to increase to hundreds of TiB within the next five-to-ten years. This is impossible on existing infrastructure without re-organising how model data is handled and processed. 

The proposed solution to this problem in the field of weather and climate numerical models has two elements. One is to decouple data output from numerical computations and dedicate pre-defined processes, called I/O-servers, purely to data output. The other is to move computations of derived (post-processed) data closer to the original “raw” weather data, thus reducing the amount of data to be moved. The challenge then is how to route the combination of raw and post-processed data efficiently to storage without compromising the performance of the running model. 

We present MultIO, an open-source software library developed at ECMWF for data routing from distributed parallel meteorological and earth-system models. It supports two distinct functionalities. First, it allows the creation of post-processing pipelines to calculate derived meteorological products, such as temporal pointwise statistics, interpolation onto different grids, encoding of data into output formats and output of data storage systems or other consumers. Second, it can act as an I/O-server, creating aggregated horizontal fields from distributed parallel meteorological and earth-system models. 

MultIO is a key component of the ACROSS project, funded by the EuroHPC JU. It is also partly developed via ECMWF's participation in Destination Earth and is a component of the Digital Twin Engine (DTE). 

How to cite: Sármány, D., Geier, P., Valentini, M., Smart, S., Hawkes, J., and Quintino, T.: MultIO: Message-Driven Data Routing for Distributed Earth-System Models, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13856, 2023.

X4.165
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EGU23-7944
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ESSI2.10
Antonino Bonanni, James Hawkes, and Tiago Quintino

Plume (Plugin Mechanism) is a plugin system for Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWP) developed by ECMWF as part of the EU Destination Earth initiative. Plume loads plugins at runtime and lets them access model data in memory, through a well-defined interface. Plume plugins offer scientists and third-parties a controlled and flexible execution environment which allows them to easily extend specific functionalities of the model. Plume complements a collection of ECMWF tools that address the demand for scalability, given the very high resolution of the upcoming Destination Earth digital twins (DT) and the continuous increases in resolution of ECMWF's operational forecasts. 

Examples of plugin applications include regional sub-models, light-weight data extraction and analysis and even machine learning algorithms. Building these applications as plugins with direct access to in-memory model data, rather than as separate applications coupled via the IO system, creates a more efficient and scalable system for very-high resolution forecasts. Plume is designed to allow coupling of plugins to different NWP models, including ECMWF's IFS, using a common interface for NWP data (Atlas). Plume is primarily written in C++, but supports plugins written in C++ and Fortran.  

This presentation focuses on Plume architecture, implementation and initial interface design. Some plugin examples are used to demonstrate how Plume can access and interact with the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and extend some specific functionalities. 

How to cite: Bonanni, A., Hawkes, J., and Quintino, T.: Plume: A Plugin Mechanism for Numerical Weather Prediction Models, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7944, 2023.

X4.166
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EGU23-8839
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ESSI2.10
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ECS
Mathilde Leuridan, James Hawkes, and Tiago Quintino

ECMWF currently produces about 120 TiB of raw weather data from its real-time forecasts every day. With model improvements and higher resolution forecasting however, this raw data is expected to grow to over a petabyte per day over the next few years. Whilst these improvements will in theory help scientists better forecast weather events, distributing such vast amounts of data efficiently will prove to be increasingly difficult with the current data access mechanisms. 

To tackle this challenge, ECMWF is developing a novel feature extraction concept, named “Polytope”. By leveraging tools in the field of higher dimensional computational geometry, Polytope will be able to efficiently cut a wide range of intricate n-dimensional shapes (polytopes) from ECMWF’s high-dimension (6D/7D) weather datacubes. Polytope can be used to perform server-side feature extraction, providing significant data reductions before delivering the data to the user. This not only improves the efficiency of access to petabyte-scale datacubes, but also removes significant post-processing complexity from the user leading to an overall data usability improvement. Practical examples include a user requesting weather data over a 4-dimensional flight path, which crosses three spatial axes as well as a temporal axis. In this example, instead of providing data over the entire bounding box of the path, Polytope will only return the few precise bytes of interest to the user. 

This work is an important contribution to, and is funded by, the EU’s Destination Earth initiative. Within Destination Earth, Polytope will enable efficient access to petabyte-scale datacubes generated by very high-resolution digital twins. This presentation will introduce the Polytope concept and demonstrate its usage for different types of feature extraction. 

How to cite: Leuridan, M., Hawkes, J., and Quintino, T.: Polytope: Feature Extraction for Improved Access to Petabyte-Scale Datacubes, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8839, 2023.

X4.167
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EGU23-5049
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ESSI2.10
Narayanappa Devaraju, Pekka Manninen, Jussi Enkovaara, Henrik Nortamo, Daniel Klocke, Jenni Kontkanen, and Mario Acosta

The Destination Earth (DestinE) climate adaptation digital twin (climate DT) will be run on the EuroHPC supercomputers LUMI and Marenostrum. The climate DT project brings together leading centers from across Europe specializing in climate science and services, Earth system modelling, and supercomputing to deliver an innovative climate information system through DestinE supporting the European Union’s climate adaptation efforts. Usage of the Earth-system model simulations requires an orchestration of a number of software tools that are developed and implemented as part of the climate DT project. Here, we present the progress of the software infrastructure development and support on LUMI to deploy the next generation Earth system models ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic) and IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) coupled with the ocean models NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) and FESOM2 (Finite-volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model). Our priority is to provide the computing environment needed on LUMI for (i) the development and execution of the climate models, impact models and data analysis utilities, (ii) the infrastructure components needed in terms of data storage, discovery, and quality control both internally and towards a link with the DestinE data services, and (iii) the software development tools and optimization support during the development of the climate models to ensure LUMI is efficiently used to reach the desired throughput. Several software tools have been deployed on LUMI successfully, for instance, MultIO the I/O server to execute the climate models outputs, FDB (Fields Data Base) for the data storage and access, Autosubmit and ecFlow for orchestration of workflows on LUMI which configures, executes, and monitors the climate DT experiments. Further, GPU adaptation of ICON and IFS-NEMO/FESOM2 models on LUMI-G (GPU) is undertaken. At the moment IFS and ICON compile and run successfully on LUMI-C (CPU). Profiling and performance analysis of the Earth system models (IFS-NEMO/FESOM2 on LUMI-C and ICON on LUMI-G) will be presented with throughput and performance numbers for the baseline test case configurations. Issues and challenges will be discussed in detail in the presentation.  

How to cite: Devaraju, N., Manninen, P., Enkovaara, J., Nortamo, H., Klocke, D., Kontkanen, J., and Acosta, M.: Software infrastructure development on the LUMI supercomputer to deploy the next generation Earth system models, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5049, 2023.

X4.168
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EGU23-10933
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ESSI2.10
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Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Christian Steger, Sami Niemelä, Jenni Kontkanen, Barbara Früh, Bjorn Stevens, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Roberto Chavez, Aleksander Lacima, Miguel Castrillo, and Katherine Grayson

The Destination Earth Climate Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) will design and implement a climate information system running on pre-exascale high-performance computing platforms to support climate adaptation efforts. An overview of the overall Climate DT will be given by Kontkanen et al. (this session).

The Climate DT will provide global climate data for both the historical period and the near-term future with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. The downstream applications will access the full model state vector (MSV) at runtime. This will lead to an interactive system where applications harnessing the MSV can be added, removed, or modified as required by the user. The climate MSV, which contains both the prognostic and a large number of diagnosed variables, will be continuously streamed (understood as all the user-requested variables being available in a federated and curated repository for a limited period of time before being erased) at both high frequency and native resolution. The applications will be able to consume this data at runtime as it is streamed. This is equivalent to applications using all the model data they require in a similar manner as one observes a physical system with all the necessary detail to satisfy specific requirements. Additional functionalities will be provided to help the data consumers access relevant statistics, to speed up the data processing and facilitate the data reduction (e.g., on-the-fly bias adjustment). This approach reduces the entry-level requirements for applications to participate in this completely new approach to access climate information data sources. The applications have the possibility of not only interacting with the model to extract the required climate data and indicators on real time, but also iteratively contribute to the design of the experimental set up and request additional variables and indicators.

To illustrate the broadest possible applicability of the Climate DT concept, five different pilot use cases were selected for the co-design, implementation, user feedback and evaluation of the Climate DT. The selected use cases focus on wildfires, urban climate, river discharge, wind energy, and hydrometeorological applications. Another consumer of the MSV will be the climate model evaluation. Furthermore, the use cases will present technical recipes for users to access the data and link their applications or impact models to the digital twin.

Each use case has identified specific key users. A close exchange with these key users is foreseen to meet the user requirements. To ensure transferability of the work to other users, an exchange with a wider circle of users is foreseen at a more advanced phase at dedicated stakeholder meetings.

An overview of the use cases, the technical concepts and the ongoing user engagement and co-design activities will be given to demonstrate the novelty, potential and advantages the digital twin offers. The use cases will illustrate the progress beyond current practices that is possible with these new climate simulation workflow compared to the traditional way of delivering climate simulation.

How to cite: Doblas-Reyes, F., Steger, C., Niemelä, S., Kontkanen, J., Früh, B., Stevens, B., Tuomenvirta, H., Chavez, R., Lacima, A., Castrillo, M., and Grayson, K.: User-driven climate model data streaming for climate adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10933, 2023.

Use cases
X4.169
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EGU23-5087
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ESSI2.10
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ECS
Aparna Chandrasekar, Andreas Marx, Sebastian Müller, Ehsan Sharifi, Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas, and Stephan Thober

The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasized on the water cycle, and water-related disasters (i.e., water scarcity, droughts, floods) that impact all sectors and regions. Therefore, assessing future water availability is critical to develop mitigation strategies and formulate adaptation policies. While developing relevant information systems, it is critical to ensure the involvement of stakeholders in the field of policy development, communities impacted by future water availability (e.g., agriculture, fisheries, shipping industry), and private industries (e.g., paper and pulp, hydropower) to ensure that information presented can be useful to support decision making. Destination Earth (DestinE) aims to, among other products, to develop – on a global scale – a highly accurate digital model of the Earth to monitor and predict the interaction between natural phenomena and human activities. As part of the European Commission’s Green Deal and Digital Strategy, DestinE will contribute to achieving the objectives of the twin transition, green and digital.

 

High resolution climate simulations (ICON and IFS climate models) are used as meteorological forcings for the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) to produce high temporal (1 hour) and spatial resolution (5 km) streamflow estimates at a global scale. The impact model consists of the mHM model, which includes key hydrological processes e.g., run-off, soil moisture dynamics, fast and slow interflow processes to estimate river discharge. The application prototype will provide: 1) co-designing the indicators and indices as well as application functionalities together with relevant stakeholders. 2) downscaling of the essential climate variables 3) providing bias correction for the climate variables 4) running the mHM model under various climate scenarios. In addition, the application will receive data through direct streaming from the climate simulations thus ensuring interactivity of the application for the users.

 

During the development phase of the DestinE digital twin, the climate simulations used in the current work are taken from the results of the NextGEMS project. They have been used to provide a proof of concept for the mHM model, and provide initial results for stakeholder engagement, and enable early involvement of stakeholders in the co-design of relevant applications.

How to cite: Chandrasekar, A., Marx, A., Müller, S., Sharifi, E., Javier Leal Rojas, J., and Thober, S.: Assessing future water availability using HydroRiver – A use case in the climate adaptation digital twin of the Destination Earth Program, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5087, 2023.

X4.170
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EGU23-10107
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ESSI2.10
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ECS
Aleks Lacima, Katherine Grayson, Roberto Chavez, Gert Versteeg, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, and Albert Soret

Current climate projections point towards a severe increase in the intensity, duration and frequency of heat waves under climate change conditions. Such changes are not homogeneous, with certain regions of the planet presenting a higher vulnerability to these extreme events and, therefore, greater adaptation challenges. Among the areas affected by heat waves, urban environments are particularly susceptible to their impacts due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, which magnifies the severity of heat waves inside cities and significantly increases the health-related risks associated with heat stress. 

Simulations produced by Global Climate Models (GCMs) (e.g. CMIP) are of crucial importance to better understand how the Earth’s climate system will evolve in the coming decades. Unfortunately, their coarse resolution, typically above 100 x 100 km, makes them unable to resolve fine-scale physical processes, including urban-scale phenomena such as the UHI. High-resolution simulations are therefore required to accurately represent physical processes that remain hidden to models with coarser representations of the climate system. GCMs with km-scale grids and sub-hourly output frequency provide the ability to study heat waves at global, mesoscale or even local level, together with an enhanced (i.e. better in physical terms) representation of the large-scale circulation systems (e.g. Rossby waves) that give rise to heat waves. 

In the framework of Destination Earth (DestinE), we are developing an urban use case for the Climate Adaptation Digital Twin (ClimateDT) that focuses on the climate impacts produced by extreme temperatures in urban environments. We will present the background and the current state of development of the use case, together with its associated challenges. Given the high-resolution simulations envisioned for the ClimateDT are not yet available, we will use NextGEMS cycle 2-3 data, which have similar characteristics, to present several climate indicators related to heat waves and human thermal comfort (e.g. UTCI, HWMI, EHF), with a particular focus on large metropolitan areas and their immediate surroundings, though results at global scale will be also assessed. Nonetheless, the previously mentioned high spatial and temporal resolutions imply unprecedented volumes of data, which, due to limited storage capacity, need to be streamed at model runtime, without the users ever having access to the full model output, but only to a fraction of it over a limited period of time. Therefore, the innovative streaming framework introduced by DestinE requires the use of one-pass algorithms to create statistical summaries of the simulated climate fields, which in turn places particular constraints on the development of the use case.

Together with other relevant statistics, these indicators will allow us to study the spatial and temporal variability of heat waves inside urban areas, a significant knowledge gap in current climate projections. The ultimate goal of our work is to provide useful knowledge to urban planners, both in terms of storylines and climate data, which can be of use towards designing more resilient cities that are better adapted to the impacts of heat waves.

How to cite: Lacima, A., Grayson, K., Chavez, R., Versteeg, G., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., and Soret, A.: Heat waves in urban environments - A Destination Earth use case in the Climate Adaptation Digital Twin, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10107, 2023.

X4.171
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EGU23-15983
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ESSI2.10
Ursula McKnight, René Capell, and Peter Berg and the DE_330_MF Hydrology Team

High-intensity, short-duration extreme precipitation events are causing severe natural disasters worldwide, resulting in major infrastructure and property damages (mill. €/flood event) and loss of human life. The DE_330_MF project takes advantage of recent advances in short-term forecasting of these extremes, driven by expanding monitoring capabilities and enhanced high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. Breakthroughs, relative to the capabilities of established services, are under development with a focus on predictions at sub-km scales that should improve the description of precipitation extremes down to local scales.

Here we present our vision for how operational hydrological forecasters across Europe may interact with the on-demand weather-induced extremes digital twin (DT). We rely on the hydrology use case within DE_330_MF, and focus on the actions needed to ensure an efficient integration of hydrological systems with the DT. To ensure relevance for flood risk management, robustness and applicability across Europe, workflows are co-designed for both the DT software service infrastructure and the real-time flood warning decision-making for nine selected hydrological use cases representing different European countries/national warning services. These events were chosen to cover a broad range of flood types, geographic locations, spatial impact scales and resulting damages/fatalities. They are key in the co-design process, and to ensure sufficient on-demand capabilities and configurability options are demonstrated for flood risks across Europe.

Different levels of interaction with the DT are required to enable the ingestion of the globally-configured DT data into the diversity of existing nationally-driven hydrological modelling prediction systems. The added value of the DT data can be demonstrated by comparing hydrological simulation results using the DT forecasts with current resolution forecasts, and analysing how model output accuracy improves. In parallel, the pan-European Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model will be incorporated directly within the DT technical service platform, thereby demonstrating how hydrological models can be embedded in the DT structure. This will allow the DT to provide complementary hydrological information to all national warning services across Europe, which can be further evaluated by comparing with the nine national models implemented in the first step.

Action plans will also be co-created with societal users to ensure advancements produced by the Extremes DT can be implemented via the proposed actionable response scenarios. Use-case relevance and progress over existing capabilities will be co-evaluated with local partners/responsible agencies, giving options for enhancing the way the DT interacts with users and their ability to request on-demand information on extreme flood events, demonstration and user requests of the tailored workflows.

This work is funded by the EU under agreement DE_330_MF between ECMWF and Météo-France. The on-demand capability proposed by the Météo-France-led international partnership is a key component of the weather-induced extremes DT, which ECMWF will deliver in the first phase of Destination Earth, launched by the EC.This work is funded by the service contract 2022/DE_330_MF, an international partnership led by Météo-France under the digital twins ECMWF will deliver in the first phase of Destination Earth, launched by the EC.

How to cite: McKnight, U., Capell, R., and Berg, P. and the DE_330_MF Hydrology Team: Evolving hydrological flood forecasting systems with globally-configured on demand high-resolution services, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15983, 2023.

Potential future advances and related activities
X4.172
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EGU23-5674
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ESSI2.10
Ramon Carbonell, Arnau Folch, Antonio Costa, Beata Orlecka-Sikora, Piero Lanucara, Finn Løvholt, Jorge Macias, Sascha Brune, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Sara Barsotti, Joern Behrens, Jorge Gomes, Jean Schmittbuhl, Carmela Freda, Joanna Kocot, Domenico Giardini, Michael Afanasiev, Helen Galves, and Rosa Badia

Destination Earth initiative pursues the implementation of a digital model of the Earth. With the aim to help understand and simulate the evolution and behavior of the Earth system components, to aid in better forecasting the impacts on human system processes, ecosystem processes and their interaction. The current state of the art technologies in numerical computations (HPC), data infrastructures (involving data storage, data access, data analysis), enable the possibility of developing numerical clones mimicking Earth’s geophysical extreme phenomena.A Digital Twin for GEOphysical extremes (DT-GEO),is a new EU project funded under the Horizon Europe programme (2022-2025), with the objective of developing a prototype for a digital twin on geophysical extremes including earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, and anthropogenic-induced extreme events. It will enable analyses, forecasts, and responses to “what if” scenarios for natural hazards from their genesis phases and across their temporal and spatial scales. The project consortium brings together world-class computational and data Research Infrastructures (RIs), operational monitoring networks, and leading-edge research and academia partnerships in various fields of geophysics. It mergesthe latest outcomes from other European projects and, Centers of Excellence. DT-GEO will deploy and test 12 Digital Twin Components (DTCs). These will be self-contained entities embedding flagship simulation codes, Artificial Intelligence layers, large volumes of (real-time) data streams from and into data-lakes, data assimilation methodologies, and overarching workflows for deployment and execution of single or coupled DTCs in centralized HPC and virtual cloud computing Ris. (DT-GEO: A Digital Twin for GEOphysical extremes, project ID 101058129)

How to cite: Carbonell, R., Folch, A., Costa, A., Orlecka-Sikora, B., Lanucara, P., Løvholt, F., Macias, J., Brune, S., Gabriel, A.-A., Barsotti, S., Behrens, J., Gomes, J., Schmittbuhl, J., Freda, C., Kocot, J., Giardini, D., Afanasiev, M., Galves, H., and Badia, R.: Digital Twinning of Geophysical Extreme Phenomena (DT-GEO), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5674, 2023.

X4.173
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EGU23-9094
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ESSI2.10
Finn Løvholt, Manuela Volpe, Andrey Babeyko, Fabrizio Romano, Steven Gibbons, Manuel Castro Diaz, Jorge Macias, Stefano Lorito, Jörn Behrens, Anne Mangeney, and Alice Gabriel

Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) combines early estimates of earthquake parameters with large ensembles of urgent shallow water tsunami propagation simulations using the GPU based Tsunami-HySEA model (Selva et al. 2021, Nature Commun.). The present version of the PTF is initialised by the earthquake information, but not updated further with new data. In the recently started Horizon Europe project DT-GEO, this PTF is presently being upgraded to a Digital Twin. The first and essential upgrade to realise the Digital Twin is continuous data assimilation enabling a close to real time synthesis of data products and a set of numerical models that allow an updating of the model forecast as new data are continuously assimilated into the model. In DT-GEO, an extended set of data sources, including improved earthquake solutions, sea level tsunami data, and GNSS, will be integrated. A second objective of the PTF is to implement a modularised Digital Twin Component that allows for the inclusion of improved wave and source physics through dispersion, non-hydrostatic tsunami generation, inundation, improved earthquake physics, and cascading earthquake triggered landslide tsunamis. The model will be tested at site demonstrators, in the Mediterranean Sea for eastern Sicily and Samos, and in the Pacific Ocean for Chile and eastern Japan. The presentation will explain how the PTF as it works today, followed by an outline of the design of the components in the Digital Twin, as well as briefly describing initial improvements and plans for further development, including potential integration into Destination Earth. This work is supported by the European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement No 101058129 (DT-GEO, https://dtgeo.eu/).

How to cite: Løvholt, F., Volpe, M., Babeyko, A., Romano, F., Gibbons, S., Castro Diaz, M., Macias, J., Lorito, S., Behrens, J., Mangeney, A., and Gabriel, A.: Tailoring tsunami Digital-Twins for future Destination Earth integration, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9094, 2023.

X4.174
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EGU23-15620
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ESSI2.10
Bente Lilja Bye, Arne-Jørgen Berre, and Ute Brönner

Digital twins are designed to support decision-making and to make well-timed interventions that provide better outcomes. Thus, it is not only the digital twin itself that is important, but also the ease of creating actionable information or decisions, through policy, management or operational decisions. This implies the need for a well-formulated interface between the digital twin and a machine or human. Digital twins of the ocean comprise multiple geoscientific disciplines in itself and the thematic twins rely on both data and models based on science and technology that are interoperable. The EU Horizon2020 project ILIAD Digital Twin of the Ocean capitalizes on the explosion of new data provided by different Earth observation sources, advanced computing infrastructures (cloud computing, HPC, Internet of Things, Big Data, citizen science) in an inclusive, virtual/augmented, and engaging fashion to address all Earth data challenges. In addition, the EU is also building a broad foundational ecosystem for the European Digital Twin of the Ocean (EDITO) led by Mercator Ocean International, VLIZ et al.  There are many other initiatives that work toward or in support of a Digital Twin of the Ocean, e.g. NOAA’s National Centre for Environmental Information, the IOC Ocean Data and Information System ODIS, the IOC Ocean Best Practice System OBPS, the Ocean Data Action Coalition and the UN Data Coordination Group. DITTO, a Global Program of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030) aims to develop and share a common understanding of digital twins of the ocean (DTO); to establish best practice in the development of DTOs; and advance a digital framework for DTOs to empower ocean professionals from all sectors around the world including scientific users, to effectively create their own digital twins. One of the activities to implement this is the Interoperability ArchitecTURes for a DigiTaL OcEan (TURTLE). This presentation gives an overview of the initiatives and introduces the strategy and some of the tools for making these systems interoperable.

How to cite: Bye, B. L., Berre, A.-J., and Brönner, U.: Interoperable digital twins of the ocean through aligned architectures, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15620, 2023.

Posters virtual: Thu, 27 Apr, 08:30–10:15 | vHall ESSI/GI/NP

Chairpersons: Claudia Vitolo, Joern Hoffmann, Danaele Puechmaille
vEGN.11
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EGU23-7081
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ESSI2.10
Filip Lefebre, Dirk Lauwaet, Niels Souverijns, and Nele Veldeman

In this presentation, we will present and discuss a Destination Earth use case that intends to provide present and future high-resolution urban heat maps for cities across Europe to underpin and motivate urban climate adaptation measures that are being developed within the EU’s cohesion policy and the development of EU policies related to the urban environment.

In recent years, climate change has been causing increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves in Europe.  Climate projections indicate that the population exposure to extreme heat will rise by more than an order of magnitude towards the end of the century. Cities are especially at risk because of the urban heat island phenomenon, which may cause a doubling in the annual number of heatwave days compared to rural areas.   

Within the EU, large geographical disparities exist in present and future (projected) exposure to heat, cities and regions in South and Central Europe exhibiting a higher risk. The monitoring of such disparities is important for Europe’s cohesion policy, which aims to develop measures to assist the economic and social development of the EU’s less-favoured regions. While some monitoring of urban heat patterns has been achieved by means of thermal infrared remote sensing, this type of information does not allow to derive sectoral indicators; the high-resolution urban climate information required to do so is currently lacking.

The urban heat maps will be generated by means of a physics-based urban climate model, UrbClim, nested within large-scale atmospheric output provided by the DestinE adaptation digital twin. 

How to cite: Lefebre, F., Lauwaet, D., Souverijns, N., and Veldeman, N.: Urban heat maps in support of EU adaptation policy (u-MAP), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7081, 2023.