This talk will present key results from a suite of comprehensive simulations performed with a configuration of the LPJmL biosphere model able to represent the dynamic and spatially detailed status of terrestrial Planetary Boundaries (PBs, i.e. guardrails describing maximum tolerable levels of land-system change, biosphere degradation, freshwater use and nitrogen leaching to avoid Earth system destabilisation).

An application of the PB simulator addresses the question how much food could be supplied globally while respecting these multiple PBs, and to what degree this supply could be increased through transformative actions towards more sustainable food production and consumption patterns. A further application demonstrates the potential to achieve ‘negative emissions’ through dedicated biomass plantations (as a measure to limit transgression of the climate change PB) within these PBs. A main finding is that almost half of current food production is environmentally unsustainable in that it depends on PB transgressions. Subsequent simulations show that the same amount of food presently produced under these unsustainable conditions, and even up to about 50% more, could be provided without violating the PB constraints in any place. This would be sufficient to feed around 10 billion people. The required underlying transformations of the food system are rather radical though: ambitious prerequisites are more efficient use of freshwater and nitrogen fertiliser in many places, reallocation of rainfed and irrigated cropland to areas where that would still be acceptable from a PB point of view, halving of food losses, dietary shifts towards lower shares of animal-based products, and (importantly) combinations thereof.

While this poses grand challenges regarding transformation of world agriculture and optimisation of resource use, currently debated methods to achieve ‘negative emissions’ via large-scale deployment of biomass plantations are likely to require large areas as well as freshwater and nutrients on their own. We will show that the option space for such measures is therefore actually very limited, if the terrestrial PBs were to be maintained. In addition, PB interactions such as ongoing and aggravating climate change including more frequent and intense droughts may seriously affect both the food production and negative emissions potentials. A conclusion is that quantitative robust understanding of these major tradeoffs and dilemmas requires even more comprehensive and integrated nexus studies bringing together the relevant aspects in a consistent PB modelling framework, not least also accounting for the social dynamics underlying the required transformations in the real world.

How to cite: Gerten, D., Braun, J., Breier, J., Schaphoff, S., Stenzel, F., and Werner, C.: Feeding 10 billion people and achieving negative emissions within Planetary Boundaries – insights from global modelling, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2258, 2023.

Projection of land use and land cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates of carbon emissions, climate change, and food and bioenergy production. We use new, spatially-explicit land availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of additional land protection on land use and cover. The land availability data include protected land and agricultural suitability and are incorporated into the Moirai land data system for initializing the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Overall, decreasing land availability is relatively inefficient at preserving undeveloped land while having considerable regional land use impacts. Current amounts of protected area have little effect on land and crop production estimates, but including the spatial distribution of unsuitable (i.e., unavailable) land dramatically shifts bioenergy production from high northern latitudes to the rest of the world, as compared to uniform availability. This highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change. Approximately doubling current protected area to emulate a 30% protected area target may avoid land conversion by 2050 of less than half the newly protected extent while reducing bioenergy feedstock land by 10.4% and cropland and grazed pasture by over 3%. Regional bioenergy land may be reduced (increased) by up to 46% (36%), cropland reduced by up to 61%, pasture reduced by up to 100%, and harvested forest reduced by up to 35%. Only a few regions show notable gains in some undeveloped land types of up to 36%. Half of the regions can reach the target using only unsuitable land, which would minimize impacts to agriculture but may not meet conservation goals.

A.V. Di Vittorio, K.B. Narayan, P. Patel, K. Calvin, C.R. Vernon (2022). Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use. GCB Bioenergy, 00:1-23. http://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.13016

How to cite: Di Vittorio, A., Narayan, K., Patel, P., Calvin, K., and Vernon, C.: Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8580, 2023.

Concurrent with an extensive population growth, the African continent has experienced a vast urbanization trend over the last decades. In 2000, around 35% of the population resided in urban areas. By 2020, this share has increased to around 44% and is projected to increase even further by 2050 following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Besides an important effect on local land use through urban expansion, this also affects food systems by shifting dietary patterns away from traditional diets towards imported or convenient goods. This is particularly the case for rice, which is predominantly imported from Southeast Asia, India, or Pakistan, and is gaining in popularity in African urban diets because of the low effort needed for cooking or storage – giving it a strong advantage over other staple crops. This dietary shift will alter trade dynamics, increase the pressure on local resources such as land, water, and fertilizer use, and subsequently also on biodiversity. In studies investigating the influence of urbanization, either the direct effect of urban expansion on land cover or the effects of dietary changes on demands are investigated, but rarely a combination or comparison of both. Particularly in impact studies or applications that focus on the synergy between water, land, and food-related issues, the dimension of human behavior, such as consumer preferences, is often overlooked.

In this study, we provide an initial projection of the expected future effects of both sprawl and shifting preferences for rice caused by urbanization on rice availability, land – and input use, rice-specific emissions, and trade dynamics. By combining micro-level data from household surveys stemming from the Living Standards Measurements Study (LSMS) with the partial equilibrium Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) at an African scale, we were able to identify the relative contribution of land cover effects stemming directly from urban expansion and indirectly from dietary shifts caused by rural-urban migration and a divergence in income between urban and rural areas.

We indicate that while urban expansion only has a limited effect at the continental scale, the omission of any dietary shifts caused by urbanization substantially underestimates projections of African rice demand (by around 8% under an SSP2-scenario). This also results in subsequent underestimations of impacts on land use, trade dynamics, and rice-specific methane emissions. By this, our study exemplifies that consumer preferences are an essential component to understanding urbanization impacts, and that, by extension, human behavior is important to consider in impact and nexus studies.

How to cite: De Vos, K., Janssens, C., Jacobs, L., Campforts, B., Boere, E., Kozicka, M., Havlík, P., Hemerijckx, L.-M., Van Rompaey, A., Maertens, M., and Govers, G.: What about human behavior? The case of urbanization and rice in Africa, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1411, 2023.

With increased water scarcity due to anthropocentric and natural causes, the trade-offs and synergies intrinsic to efficiently allocating water resources to various competing uses have become more polarized. Realizing the importance of an integrated approach in water governance, the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) Nexus can be used as a multi-level and cross-sectoral approach that advocates the EU water economy and, in addition, relies on ecological and social considerations. The goal of this work is to propose, design and foster the adoption of integrated, innovative and inclusive Nexus-smart water governance schemes and institutional settings to promote a secure water future in the EU, resilient to climate change. This work follows an evidence-based approach to propose, assess and optimize a set of WEFE Nexus smart methods in six different case studies reflecting various cross-sectoral, multi-level and multi-stakeholder water governance contexts. To achieve this goal and monitor water governance in the EU we provide a set of Nexus-smart socio-economic and environmental indicators that reflect the cross-sectoral and multi-level nature of water use.  We also propose and develop economic instruments and business models that support robust water management under cross-sectoral competition. 

How to cite: Vrachioli, M.: Resilient water governance under climate change within the WEFE Nexus (RETOUCH Nexus project), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16792, 2023.

Water, Energy, Food and Ecosystems are inextricably linked within a complex system (“the WEFE Nexus”) dominated by interactions, feedback, and scale effects. The analysis of the WEFE nexus is increasingly relevant in both academic and policy discussion; since its systematic approach could contribute addressing some fundamental EU challenges and policies, supporting the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals.

Existing studies are still focused on dual interactions between sectors (e.g. water-energy, water-food) and don’t fully consider the ecosystem services components, despite their importance is widely recognized. There are still some challenges on how to use heterogeneous and sector-specific data and large climate projection datasets within the nexus concept.

The aim of this analysis is to explore how the WEFE nexus components and their interactions have been examined in recent scientific literature, and how they can be conceptualized in the Adige River basin (Italy), in order to identify synergies and trade-offs among different resources and uses.

Firstly, an in-depth state-of-the-art review on the main methodologies which allow the full integration of ecosystem services and climate change effects was undertaken for publications in the time frame 2010-2022. The review focused on i) how complex interlinkages among the sub-sectors of the WEF nexus and Ecosystem Services are modeled and how researchers operationalized these interlinkages in current conceptual frameworks; ii) how the spatial (from source to sea) and temporal dynamics of nexus are changing under future scenarios of climate and socio-economic changes; iii) which are the recent applied tools, methods and models which allow to operationalize the WEFE nexus behaviors and to support decision-making policies. The review shows that the interrelations among the WEFE sectors within conceptual frameworks are mainly modeled by qualitative methods (e.g. causal loops, multi-criteria decision analysis); while the spatio-temporal dynamics are mainly assessed by quantitative approaches (e.g. System Dynamics, Bayesian Networks). Furthermore, ecosystem services and climate change are mainly considered as external drivers influencing the WEF nexus sectors rather than a nexus component.

Based on the collection and review of peer-reviewed, grey literature and newspaper articles dealing with the water management topic, a first conceptualization of the sectors involved in the WEFE Nexus for the Adige River basin was performed. The framework, finalized with expert-based discussions in the context of two local stakeholders’ workshops, allowed the identification and qualitatively characterization of the relations among the WEFE sectors as well as the pressures by external components on the system (i.e. climate and socio-economic drivers). Five levels of conceptualization have been conceived to represent the main dynamics for each nexus’ sectors (i.e. water, energy, food, and ecosystem services) and their overall interactions.

The results of the analysis are part of the Horizon2020 project NEXOGENESIS, and pave the way for the application of a complex science methodology able to disentangle the role of ecosystem services and climate change in the frame of the nexus approach

How to cite: Sambo, B., Cocuccioni, S., Carnelli, F., Terzi, S., Sperotto, A., Torresan, S., Pittore, M., Zebisch, M., and Critto, A.: Water- Energy- Food- Ecosystem Services (WEFE) nexus assessment in the context of climate change: a literature review and conceptual model development for the Adige River basin (Italy)., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11213, 2023.

A safe access to water, energy, and food that does not impact the state of ecosystems and natural resources are needed for human well-being as well as for economic and environmental sustainability. As natural resources availability is threatened by a multiplicity of stressors (including e.g. climate change), the interconnections and interdependencies among resources become stronger and more critical to investigate. Sustainable resources use thus requires a holistic ‘Nexus’ approach, which can contribute to reduce conflicts among sectors and create more synergies compared to a silo approach to water, energy, food, and ecosystems realms.

The importance of active stakeholder engagement in the management of natural resources is also increasingly acknowledged, although there is a lack of participation in policy planning phases and in the decision-making processes. When models are developed to support resources planning and management, the involvement of stakeholders from early stages is crucial to include their knowledge in model building, to tailor the model according to their needs, and to ensure that the potential implications of actions are correctly represented. This ultimately guarantees ownership of modelling results.

System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) includes a multiplicity of tools and methods to describe, model, simulate, and analyse dynamically complex systems taking jointly into account both scientific information (e.g. from sectoral models) and stakeholders’ knowledge and perception. SDM has gained attention, in the recent scientific literature, in Nexus studies. Specifically, the use of qualitative SDM tools (such as Causal Loop Diagrams – CLDs) allows the analysis of the system behaviour based on a conceptual (mental) model focusing on linkages and feedback loops. Quantitative simulation models (stock-and-flow diagrams) use equations to quantify linkages between different types of variables over time. Stock and flow diagrams benefit from the information deriving from sectoral models, such as hydrological models, although the integration with such models has been limitedly explored to date.

The present work proposes an approach based on the use of SDM tools for the development of an integrated model supporting the analysis of a complex Nexus system. Particular attention is given to the analysis of the interdependencies between water quantity, quality, and management, and to the implications of irrigation and agricultural practices for the state of the environment. The main elements of innovation are: i) the coupling between SDM, built in a participatory form with the key stakeholders in the study area, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT); ii) the combination scientific and stakeholder knowledge to appraise the socio-economic and ecological effects of the various management situations co-designed with the stakeholders. Reference is made to one of the pilot areas of the LENSES project (PRIMA Foundation, GA n. 2041), namely the Tarquinia plain watershed, located in Central Italy, an area with a relevant environmental value, but characterized by intensive irrigated agriculture with severe impacts on water and ecosystems.

How to cite: Yaseen, M., Portoghese, I., Giordano, R., Pagano, A., Iacobellis, V., Vanino, S., Pirelli, T., Fabiani, S., and Baratella, V.: Integrating SWAT and Participatory System Dynamics Modelling for analyzing the WEF Nexus: the Tarquinia plain case study, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10490, 2023.

There is a growing awareness on the existence of dynamic interdependencies between the Water-Energy-Food sectors that cannot be ignored in identifying sustainable sectoral and cross-sectoral policies. In addition, the increasing demand for resources creates trade-offs that are exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, such as drought and flood with increasing frequency and magnitude. The Water-Energy-Food Nexus approach is a powerful concept to address the interrelationships of resource systems and move towards better coordination and utilisation of natural resources, considering existing trade-offs and promoting positive synergistic impacts. However, the incorporation of this approach into policies is making slow progress. This means that a gap exists between science (Nexus thinking) and policy (Nexus doing). 

The present work, carried out in the framework of the REXUS project (H2020, GA 101003632), aims to develop a process, strongly based on the use of participatory approaches, to support decision‐makers in designing sustainable and actionable forward-looking solutions that increase resilience across sectors. Integrated modelling based on System Dynamics is used for this purpose. In fact, it i) accounts for real-world complexities; ii) allows for future scenarios development and analysis, with clear options for policymakers; iii) allows for the integration of stakeholders’ knowledge.

Specific reference is made to one of the REXUS pilots, namely the Isonzo‐Soca watershed between Italy and Slovenia, for which current cross‐border flow regulation agreements are insufficient to guarantee a good status of ecosystem services in the Italian territory. The participatory System Dynamics modelling approach is combined with results of sectoral models, hydropeaking indicators, and ecosystem services indicators for a clear framing of the problem and its effects on the system. Through stakeholder engagement, some strategies for limiting sectoral conflicts are co-designed and fed into the System Dynamics simulation model to assess their effects on the system - and on different aspects (social, environmental, economic, etc.) - under various multidimensional future scenarios. The approach, organised in several steps, is based on a common framework replicable in different study contexts.

How to cite: Coletta, V. R., Imbò, A., Pagano, A., Fratino, U., and Giordano, R.: Participatory System Dynamics modelling for Water-Energy-Food Nexus characterization and for supporting the analysis of management measures, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11836, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11836, 2023.

Attaining resource security in the water, energy, food, and ecosystem (WEFE) sectors is paramount in order to fulfill many of the sustainable development goals. To obtain a holistic understanding of this WEFE nexus and assess the impacts of policy decisions, climate change, and other interventions, a system dynamics approach to modelling has been encouraged. Due to the multiscale, nonlinear nature of this nexus and a recent data deluge in the WEFE sectors, we propose the use of data-driven methods, which rely on dimensionality reduction and machine learning algorithms to find low-rank patterns and parsimonious models in big data sets. As these methods have proven highly successful within other scientific disciplines, we evaluate the prospect of using a data-driven approach to address key issues in nexus research based on analogous case studies from these disciplines. Specifically, we address three key issues with nexus modelling: model discovery, extreme events, and scenario analysis. We first consider how to identify nonlinear dynamical equations from chaotic, noisy, multiscale, and variable-deficient measurements using algorithms like SINDy and HAVOK, which have already been employed on a multitude of physical, biological, and chemical systems. We then investigate how to model the cascading impacts of extreme events on the nexus based on data-driven models of disease outbreak, as well as rapid model recovery after an unprecedented extreme event. Finally, we look into how to employ data-driven control, using case studies in flight control and drug intervention modelling, for the purpose of assessing how policy decisions, climate change, or population growth may be evaluated when modelling the nexus. This can provide tools for stakeholders to see what systemic impacts their decisions might have, and how they can attain synergies between the WEFE sectors. While many studies have conceded that nexus modelling is highly individualized based on the selected region, sectors, and data availability, this overview highlights that a generalized systematic approach to nexus modelling may still be possible, despite these challenges.

How to cite: Jonsson, E., Teutschbein, C., Grabs, T., Todorovic, A., Francisco, A., and Blicharska, M.: Modelling The Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Nexus Using Data-Driven Methods, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15793, 2023.

Hydropower dams can induce spatial and temporal changes in land and water systems in terms of resource access and use. Regardless of the main purpose of these dams (that is, to produce energy), analyzing these changes by the lenses of the water-energy-food nexus helps us to identify the synergies and trade-offs between these components in the watershed context. Changes  in land & water systems happen in different times (dam’s construction and operation), spatial scales and, in many cases, are also influenced by national political-economic context. Colombia is moving towards peace agreements in recent years, and this process already showed impact in the patterns of land and water uses, especially by agricultural systems. This new scenario can create or consolidate some local and national socioeconomic characteristics, adding inequalities beyond the dam’s construction. This work focuses on the land cover and land use transitions surrounding two dams in the Magdalena basin, Betania-Quimbo and Hidrosogamosso. This basin is responsible for 70% of the national energy production, it concentrates the production of important food/energy value chains for the local and global market and possess high biodiversity. Both dams were built in 2009 and started operations after 2015, so Landsat satellite images were used to build the land use & cover maps in 2009, 2015 and 2021 for 7 classes (rice, palm oil, pasture, forest, water surface, temporary and permanent crops and others). Due to the intensity of clouds and high altitudes, Colombia is one of the most difficult regions in the world to build these maps, and for this reason global, or even local, mapping available turn out to be unrealistic. A random forest model was chosen, and, as variables, indexes and spatial temporal metrics using 176 bands in total. To extract the pixel information for training and testing the model, a stratified random sample was run using different secondary maps, and after that, we used Google Earth for visual verification (1196 observation for all years). For the accuracy assessment just the sample from the current year was used. The model was run in Google Earth Engine. The model achieved a similar overall accuracy in all years (79%), and for certain agricultural systems a high accuracy, such as the case of palm oil with100% accuracy in 2021 and 2015, despite reaching 70% in 2009. Accuracy for rice was also high: 95%, 84% and 88% in 2021, 2015 and 2009 respectively. Pasture achieved a medium accuracy: 78% (2021): 83% (2015); and 71% (2009). Water surface achieved a high accuracy.For water surface: 100% in 2021 and 2015, and 97% in 2009. The Forest category reached a medium-high accuracy: 81%, 88% and 77% in 2021, 2015 and 2009 respectively. Land use and Land cover maps of areas impacted by dams is of high importance to support decisions that will be implemented via instruments such as Basin Management Plans or compensatory schemes.

How to cite: Salomão, C., Alsleben, J., Rufin, P., and Hostert, P.: Spatial patterns of land use & land cover changes surrounding Colombian water reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10381, 2023.