EGU24-10574, updated on 08 Mar 2024
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Will 2024 be the first year above 1.5 C?

Nick Dunstone, Doug Smith, Adam Scaife, Leon Hermanson, Andrew Colman, and Chris Folland
Nick Dunstone et al.
  • Met Office, Hadley Centre, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (

Global mean surface temperature is the key metric by which our warming climate is monitored and for which international climate policy is set. At the end of each year the Met Office makes a global mean temperature forecast for the coming year. Following on from the new record 2023, we predict a high probability of another record year in 2024 and a 35% chance of exceeding 1.5 C above pre-industrial. Whilst a one-year temporary exceedance of 1.5 C would not constitute a breech of the Paris Agreement target, our forecast highlights how close we are now to breeching this target. We show that our 2024 forecast can be largely explained by the combination of the continuing warming trend of +0.2 C/decade and the lagged warming affect of a strong tropical Pacific El Nino event. We further highlight 2023 was significantly warmer than forecast and that much of this warming signal came from the southern hemisphere and requires further understanding.

How to cite: Dunstone, N., Smith, D., Scaife, A., Hermanson, L., Colman, A., and Folland, C.: Will 2024 be the first year above 1.5 C?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10574,, 2024.