CL4.3 | Seasonal to multi-decadal climate predictions and their applications
EDI
Seasonal to multi-decadal climate predictions and their applications
Co-organized by AS1/ESSI4/HS13/NH11/NP5/OS1
Convener: Panos J. Athanasiadis | Co-conveners: André Düsterhus, Julia Lockwood, Bianca Mezzina, Lisa DegenhardtECSECS, Leon Hermanson, Leonard Borchert
Orals
| Fri, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:25 (CEST), 14:00–15:35 (CEST)
 
Room 0.31/32
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X5
Posters virtual
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X5
Orals |
Fri, 08:30
Posters on site |
Thu, 16:15
Posters virtual
Thu, 14:00
This session covers climate predictions from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales and their applications. Continuing to improve such predictions is of major importance to society. The session embraces advances in our understanding of the origins of seasonal to decadal predictability and of the limitations of such predictions, as well as advances in improving the forecast skill and reliability and making the most of this information by developing and evaluating new applications and climate services. The session welcomes contributions from dynamical as well as statistical predictions (including machine learning methods) and their combination. This includes predictions of climate phenomena, including extremes and natural hazards, from global to regional scales, and from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales ("seamless predictions"). The session also covers physical processes relevant to long-term predictability sources (e.g. ocean, cryosphere, or land) and predictions of large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to teleconnections as well as observational and emergent constraints on climate variability and predictability. Also relevant is the time-dependence of the predictive skill and windows of opportunity. Analysis of predictions in a multi-model framework and innovative ensemble-forecast initialization and generation strategies are another focus of the session. The session pays particular attention to innovative methods of quality assessment and verification of climate predictions, including extreme-weather frequencies, post-processing of climate hindcasts and forecasts, and quantification and interpretation of model uncertainty. We particularly invite contributions presenting the use of seasonal-to-decadal predictions for assessing risks from natural hazards, adaptation and further applications.

Orals: Fri, 19 Apr | Room 0.31/32

Chairpersons: Julia Lockwood, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Leon Hermanson
08:30–08:35
Welcome to the Session CL4.3
08:35–08:40
Convener introduction to Slot #1 (climate services and applications)
EGU24-11485
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Summer drought predictability in the Mediterranean region in seasonal forecasts
Giada Cerato et al.
EGU24-17585
|
On-site presentation
Skill of wind resource forecasts on the decadal time scale
Kai Lochbihler et al.
EGU24-14688
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Exploring ML-based decadal predictions of the German Bight storm surge climate
Daniel Krieger et al.
EGU24-10574
|
Highlight
|
Virtual presentation
Will 2024 be the first year above 1.5 C?
Nick Dunstone et al.
EGU24-12969
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
How unusual is the recent decade-long pause in Arctic summer sea ice retreat?
Patricia DeRepentigny et al.
EGU24-19251
|
solicited
|
Highlight
|
Virtual presentation
The opportunities and challenges of near-term climate prediction
Hazel Thornton
Coffee break
Chairpersons: Bianca Mezzina, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Leonard Borchert
10:45–10:50
Convener introduction to Slot #2 (mechanisms and understanding of predictability)
EGU24-4873
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Why does the Signal-to-Noise Paradox Exist in Seasonal Climate Predictability?
Yashas Shivamurthy et al.
EGU24-9274
|
ECS
|
solicited
|
Highlight
|
On-site presentation
The Role of the North Atlantic for Heat Wave Characteristics in Europe
Sabine Bischof et al.
12:10–12:25
General discussion (Slot #2)
Lunch break
Chairpersons: André Düsterhus, Lisa Degenhardt, Leon Hermanson
14:00–14:05
Convener introduction to Slot #3 (ML in climate predictions and system development)
EGU24-9905
|
ECS
|
solicited
|
On-site presentation
Optimization-based driver detection and prediction of seasonal heat extremes
Ronan McAdam et al.
EGU24-15709
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Predicting Atlantic and Benguela Niño events with deep learning 
Marie-Lou Bachelery et al.
EGU24-9690
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Hybrid statistical-dynamical seasonal prediction of summer extreme temperatures over Europe
Luca Famooss Paolini et al.
EGU24-7134
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Towards the Predictability of Compound Dry and Hot Extremes through Complexity Science
Ankit Agarwal and Ravikumar Guntu

Posters on site: Thu, 18 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X5

Display time: Thu, 18 Apr 14:00–Thu, 18 Apr 18:00
Chairpersons: Lisa Degenhardt, Bianca Mezzina, Panos J. Athanasiadis
EGU24-15476
|
On-site presentation
Statistics of sudden stratospheric warmings using a large model ensemble
Sarah Ineson et al.
EGU24-868
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Relationship of the predictability of North Pacific Mode and ENSO with predictability of PDO
Jivesh Dixit and Krishna M. AchutaRao
EGU24-1757
|
On-site presentation
Is the NAO signal-to-noise paradox exacerbated by severe winter windstorms?
Lisa Degenhardt et al.
EGU24-6666
|
On-site presentation
Decadal predictions of temperature, precipitation and streamflow considering their covariability
(withdrawn)
Carlos Lima et al.
EGU24-19359
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Seasonal forecast of the late boreal winter temperature based on solar forcing and QBO
Mikhail Vokhmianin et al.

Posters virtual: Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vHall X5

Display time: Thu, 18 Apr 08:30–Thu, 18 Apr 18:00
Chairpersons: Leonard Borchert, Leon Hermanson
EGU24-15974
|
ECS
|
Virtual presentation
Recalibrating DWD’s operational climate predictions: towards a user-oriented seamless climate service
Alexander Pasternack et al.