Triggering rainfall for torrent floods and debris flows in Austria and assessment of climate change impact

Debris flows represent a severe hazard in Alpine regions. The initiation of debris flows is connected to several hydro-meteorological and geomorphological factors. For operational early warning and assessment of climate change impact, knowledge about critical rainfall conditions is needed. For several regions of the European Alps intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds for debris flows have been derived in recent years. In this study we provide triggering rainfall conditions of high temporal and spatial resolution for > 3700 documented torrent processes including debris flows that occurred in Austria between 2003 and 2022. Additionally, we estimate the change in their probability of occurrence in a future climate, based on an ensemble of bias corrected and localized EURO-CORDEX simulations. We find slightly steeper I-D curves for debris flows than for torrent floods and no clear trend indicating substantial influence of antecedent rainfall on the triggering rainfall. For all process types, it is shown that both the probability of occurrence and the areas affected by triggering precipitation events increase substantially in the future, with clear dependences on the emission scenarios (RCPs). The results of this study provide a basis for improved event forecasting in a changing climate.