Does Strength Matter? An Exploration into Cyclone Strength and the Impact on Arctic Sea Ice

Arctic cyclones are an integral part of the polar climate system. They import moisture and energy from the midlatitude and impact the underlying surface through dynamic adn thermodynamic interactions. The rapid warming and sea ice decline in the Arctic makes it more important than ever to understand the tightly coupled interactions between the Arctic sea ice and episodic weather events, such as cyclones.

In this presentation, we use a Lagrangian ice parcel database to study the impact different strength cyclones have on the Arctic Sea ice. The database includes daily 25km Arctic ice parcel tracks and associated atmospheric and sea ice conditions, including passing cyclone track data from 2002-2021. We divide these cyclone tracks into three distinctive groups based on their central pressure and average wind speed. After this, we split the ice parcel tracks and associated atmospheric data based on these cyclone groups: ice affected by weak cyclones, ice affected by normal cyclones, and ice affected by extreme cyclones.

We will then utilize these parcel groups to study the atmospheric conditions (precipitation, temperature, radiative balance) and sea ice changes for three days before, during, and three days after the cyclone passes. We will average the ice parcel and associated atmospheric variable data over the ice parcel life cycle and across the before, during, and after cyclone pass timescales. We will then apply statistical pattern recognition on these averaged sea ice and atmospheric variable fields. This analysis will allow us to better understand the role cyclone strength has in cyclone-sea ice interactions. We will present these results separately for individual seasons, locations, and surrounding SIC.