EGU24-13094, updated on 09 Mar 2024
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

High-Resolution Inversion Modeling of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in Europe: Assessing Accuracy and  Dynamics

Anteneh Getachew Mengistu1, Aki Tsuruta1, Maria Tenkanen1, Tiina Markkanen1, Maarit Raivonen2, Antti Leppänen2, Antoine Berchet3, Rona Thompson4, Hannakaisa Lindqvist1, and Tuula Aalto1
Anteneh Getachew Mengistu et al.
  • 1Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
  • 2Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
  • 3Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
  • 4Norsk Institutt for Luftforskning (NILU), Kjeller, Norway

Accurate estimation of critical greenhouse gas fluxes, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), is vital for shaping effective climate change policies. Leveraging the state-of-the-art Community Inversion Framework (CIF), we estimate high-resolution emissions across Europe (-12°E to 37°E, 35°N to 73°N). Using the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART) with ECMWF meteorological data, we calculate surface flux footprints at 0.2° × 0.2° resolution, enhancing comparisons with national inventories. Assimilating data from 40+ in-situ observations, including ICOS and non-ICOS stations, our 4-dimensional variational optimization refines prior high-resolution flux estimates. Diverse sources contribute to the total flux, including fossil fuel emissions, biomass burning, land emissions, air-sea exchange. Flux corrections enhance accuracy, yielding posterior estimates with reduced bias and heightened correlation. Major CH4 emitters (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, and the UK) collectively contribute 72% of total emissions. The EU27 + UK average is 16.47 ± 1.33 Tg CH4/yr. Posterior anthropogenic emissions reveal a regional mean reduction of > 5 gC/m2/month in summer compared to prior estimates, highlighting seasonal emission dynamics.

How to cite: Mengistu, A. G., Tsuruta, A., Tenkanen, M., Markkanen, T., Raivonen, M., Leppänen, A., Berchet, A., Thompson, R., Lindqvist, H., and Aalto, T.: High-Resolution Inversion Modeling of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in Europe: Assessing Accuracy and  Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13094,, 2024.