Transient and lagged effects of vegetation dynamics on the global CO2 growth rate

The land carbon cycle is fundamental in regulating atmospheric CO₂ dynamics from seasonal to centennial scales. The fine equilibrium between photosynthetic gains spent in metabolic costs and/or lost in mortality underpins the contribution of terrestrial ecosystems to the global carbon cycle. Uncertainties and divergent hypotheses on the role of climate in regulating their underlying mechanisms hamper our current diagnostic and prognostic abilities despite growing evidence on ecosystem vulnerability to present and future changes in climate. However, quantitative knowledge of the contributions of different carbon cycle processes regulating carbon uptake and release still need to be improved, inflating the uncertainties in future projections of net land-atmosphere carbon exchanges. In this study, we rely on satellite-based Earth observation retrievals of above-ground biomass and vegetation primary productivity to reconstruct the land-atmosphere carbon exchange dynamics over the last two decades, through the application of a three-box model at the pixel level. Our approach confidently reproduces 60% of the observed variability in atmospheric CO₂ growth rate (CGR) over throughout 1997-2019 (R = 0.78, p-val < 0.05), with a low RMSE of 1.0 PgC yr^-1. We further detail CO₂ release from vegetation dynamics emerging from quick turnover induced by wildfires and leaves senescence, as well as the slow turnover from plant and soil decomposition mechanisms. This allows us to differentiate between transient and lagged effects on land-to-atmosphere fluxes. The carbon release, characterized by a lag of over one year, referred to as lagged effects. Globally, the lagged responses accounted for 50% of the variability in CGR, exceeding three times the contribution of transient fluxes from live vegetation. We have yet to a change or trend in the total contributions of vegetation dynamics to CGR. Yet, the relative role of lagged effects to CGR via decomposition fluxes increased by 50%, possibly due to accelerated mortality and decomposition fluxes. As global warming imposes higher stress on vegetation while increasing temperature-mediated decomposition, our results highlight the importance of quantifying their underlying metabolic responses. Such understanding is instrumental for assessing the contribution of adaptation and mitigation measures that will shape the contribution of the terrestrial carbon cycle to dampen the effects of anthropogenic emissions on global climate.