Unfulfilled promises? Investigating the impact of the Belo Monte hydropower dam on water, energy, and food access in the Brazilian Amazon

Recent hydropower developments in Brazil were accompanied by promises to enhance the quality of life for the local population residing near the construction site of dams. To convince both locals and the broader national and international audience, the argument often centered around the hydropower project being an unparalleled opportunity to elevate deprived populations to a "developed" status, marked by significantly improved living standards. Our study aims to analyze how the residents of the medium-sized town of Altamira in the Brazilian Amazon perceive the impacts of Belo Monte, the country's second-largest hydropower dam built between 2011 and 2015, on fundamental resources—specifically, water, energy, and food. Additionally, we seek to examine how this perception varies based on sociodemographic characteristics such as age, gender, income, civil status, local or migrant status, ethnicity, and education. We will also explore the spatial distribution of these perceptions within the urban area. Our data consist of a survey based on a probabilistic sample of 500 households conducted across 10 census tracts (50 interviews per tract) in July 2022. Interviews were conducted with the head of the household or another household member aged 18 or over. Eligibility for survey participation required residency in the urban area of Altamira during and after the dam construction. Regarding the impact of Belo Monte on water system provision improvements, our findings suggest that over 59% of respondents indicated a negative impact or no impact. Furthermore, 86.8% of households reported a negative impact on energy prices, indicating that the dam did not contribute to increased energy access; in fact, it had the opposite effect. Lastly, 61% of the sample expressed negative impacts on food, citing high prices during construction that persisted even after completion. Our study also revealed that resettled populations in the urban area of Altamira faced more challenges in accessing water provision, experiencing more shortages compared to the rest of the population (χ² = 25.6401, p-value < 0.05). Additionally, resettled populations perceived energy prices more negatively than the population as a whole (χ² = 9.0392, p-value < 0.05). Our study employs statistical modeling and spatial analysis to investigate the disparities in these perceptions, examining how costs and benefits are unevenly distributed across the socio-spatial landscape, potentially exacerbating existing local inequalities. We advocate for essential interventions aimed at alleviating these disparities, such as subsidizing access to water, energy, and food for the residents of Altamira. Additionally, we provide insights into the unintended consequences of hydropower dam construction, especially in the Global South, where there is a substantial surge in the development of this energy source.