Resilient Waters: Exploring Hydrological Response in Evolving Mountain Systems of the Southern Andes

Mountain systems have experienced significant changes due to variations in precipitation and temperature. These changes have affected natural water reservoirs, such as glaciers and snow. There is a high probability that glaciers will disappear entirely in some mountain ranges during this century, with current impacts evident on the flows and ecosystems dependent on them. The reduction in snow cover has also been observed globally, especially in lower altitude areas, due to the increase in liquid rain. The increase in temperature has accelerated the melting of snow before the season of most significant water demand. This transformation in mountain basin hydrology raises global concerns about the sustainability of water resources.

Despite the evident loss of storage in glaciers and snow, numerous studies have highlighted the importance of mountain aquifers, quaternary deposits, wetlands, and fractured basements in groundwater storage. However, these elements are often ignored in studies that project changes in flow in mountainous areas.

Mountain catchments will play a crucial role in the response of Earth systems to climate change. Given the loss of glaciers and decreases in solid precipitation, these systems will activate alternative mechanisms to provide water in times of less rainfall, acting as hydrological refuges. Identifying these refuges is crucial for the conservation and management of watersheds.

Although there are studies on climate change refugia for species habitat, there is no defined conceptual framework for hydrological refugia in the Southern Andes of Chile. This work seeks to review elements within the basins that could mitigate or delay the effects of climate change on flows, proposing indexes to identify potential refuges and validate their usefulness in multiple basins throughout the Southern Andes of Chile.