EGU24-13861, updated on 09 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13861
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Assessment of Rice Yield Potential changes over Korean Peninsula under climate change with 1-km high resolution SSP-RCP scenarios 

Sera Jo, Yong-Seok Kim, Jina Hur, Kyo-moon Shim, Seung Gil Hong, Min-gu Kang, and Eung-sup Kim
Sera Jo et al.
  • National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Climate Change Assessment, Korea, Republic of (seta43@korea.kr)

The changes in rice climatic yield potential (CYP) across the Korean Peninsula are evaluated based on the new climate change scenario produced by the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences with 18 ensemble members at 1 km resolution under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. To overcome the data availability, we utilize solar radiation for CYP instead of sunshine duration which is relatively uncommon in the climate prediction field. The result show that maximum CYP(CYPmax) decreased, and the optimal heading date is progressively delayed under warmer temperature conditions compared to the current climate. This trend is particularly pronounced in the SSP5-85 scenario, indicating faster warming, except for the northeastern mountainous regions of North Korea. This shows the benefits of lower emission scenarios and pursuing more efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, the CYPmax shows a wide range of feasible futures, which shows inherent uncertainties in future climate projections and the risks when analyzing a single model or a small number of model results, highlighting the importance of the ensemble approach. 
This work was supported by a grant (no. RS-2021-RD009055) from the Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea

How to cite: Jo, S., Kim, Y.-S., Hur, J., Shim, K., Hong, S. G., Kang, M., and Kim, E.: Assessment of Rice Yield Potential changes over Korean Peninsula under climate change with 1-km high resolution SSP-RCP scenarios , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13861, 2024.